There’s always some cause for a parade. In the 1990s it was the internet and a new crop of tech geniuses. They were the young hustlers who ‘got it.’ They understood how the internet would make us rich
What are the chances that AI makes the human race even stupider? The brain needs exercise just like our muscles but through the wonders of technology our brains and muscles no longer have to do the work required in the past. Will the future be a race of obese and mindless individuals who need AI just to complete my same tasks? I recently saw a review of a scientific study that reported that London taxi drivers had the lowest incidence of dementia possibly because they had memorize intricate street maps. That advantage will be loss with reliance on GPS. Are we really better off today with all the technological advances than we were in the '50s and 60s?
So AI can answer some questions about the past . But the future, no! Sort of reminds Me of an economist. Take all the past doings and Put them into the present. Yes there are patterns. Some will fall into the future, but some will not . Live day by day, in My opinion. Sufficient unto the day is the evil there of.
I had to ask AI to "Estimate when the US will go over a fiscal cliff?" Its answer was the end 2025. It indicated $5 trillion in new debt is projected to hit in 2025 if current policies are continued.
Yep, Steven, it is coming. The end of the American Empire is not far ahead. Of course, as happens to all empires, most people retreat into heavy denial. But, alas, denial does not keep the empire from falling. As the U.S. continues to believe it is ALL-POWERFUL, the rest of the World sees the emperor has no clothes. Commodities are becoming king - not the US$. Hopefully, Trump and his Trumpsters learn cooperation and negotiation is the way forward - not more wars and more sanctions. Let's hope for a kinder America.
Hey LSO. We are in for a world of hurt with what’s coming. I’ve voted for Trump three times. We are simply going to have a depression, but I would much rather have it under Trump. We will see my friend. Buckle up.
Why not invest in freedom, like Argentina is experiencing. We know freedom produces better growth than everything tried by America over the last 40 years. I find it amazing that instead of freedom our politicians will try anything and lately they are going to control everything and everyone to try out some new form of censorship or eating insects and lab grown meat and then the internet and lately it's AI. Seems to me freedom has already shown itself to be extremely reliable if not the most reliable method of allowing society to "get rich." Why do we have to try everything else before the most logical choice? My guess is Saylor will go down in a blaze of glory, AI will dissatisfy or there will be proofs it often fails and it isn't sentient. Seems to me the highest probability bet is against the US managing their debt crisis i.e. betting against the dollar in the long run and the potlicians who simply couldn't balance the budget due to their vast "intelligence" and their central planning.
This is what Chat GPT posits after reading Mr. B's missive:
Conclusion:
AI is a tool, not a magic bullet. It can enable wealth creation but not without effort, strategic thinking, and a fair amount of luck. Much like other technological advances, the key will be how society chooses to implement and distribute its benefits. While it may open doors to prosperity, it’s unlikely to make everyone rich.
Our debt is the gorilla in the room. It will not go away unless we pay for it. It's pretty simple, in my view. A big question is how will the everyday joe prole be alerted to the point of understanding that he is insolvent? A bigger question is, who will bring it to his attention? The biggest question is... will he vote to pay his debt? I am sure, though; joe prole didn't know the debt was his!!?
I'm not betting on it either. Saylor now, unfortunately, has to try again in bitcoin. And what is it now? A program which tracks trades in bitcoin and records who owns it. It also has a very expensive method of producing more bitcoin, insuring the value of bitcoin? AI is also a bunch of programs written by the latest bunch of snake oil salesman. No one quite knows what they are doing but they sure think they are smart and announce it along with their mantra "Artificial Intelligence. " It must be smart because they say it is almost sentient. Well humans are sentient and we certainly aren't all rich but maybe this time.
Since you dropped Michael Saylor's early call, I'll simply add that his book, The Mobile Wave, published in May of 2013, was prescient. Everyone who followed his lead and invested in line with his belief at that time has been amply rewarded! More recently, his adoption of Bitcoin in 2020 has seen his company, as well as his followers, also be amply rewarded.
A well-balanced approach to reporting the facts is greatly valued by those of us who have read your newsletters for years. And yes...you've been somewhat early in your calls for Armageddon, Bill!
Agree Craig, and once appreciated Bills "well-balanced"approach, which has become a little lopsided these past few years.
Bills views on Israel vs Hamas, Trump vs the insane left and extremly successful people who support Bitcoin, vs the gold bugs has left many on this site dumbfounded and annoyed to the point of unsubscribing, which is sad because we lost many good people,and many good people lost lots of money by hiding in gold.
I still love Bill and apprciate his brilliance and his family values, and do give him some credit for my personal trade of the decade, or I should say my life, taking most of my money out of stocks and buying more crypto's, which I can't tell you how thankful I am for that.
Sure, one day Bills Armageddon will come to light, and many will perish into financial hell, but until then, learn from your mistakes, buy Bitcoin, enjoy your friends and family, live your life as well as you can, and appreciate each day like it could be your last, becaue one day it will be.
Until then, enjoy and learn from our other dear readers and leave or take whatever advice your logic tells you from our host, becaue even a broken clock is right twice a day:)
I still have all my money invested in 3D printing, the Cloud, the Internet of Things, 5G, Blockchain and Driverless cars. Once I cash in on those I am going all in on AI! Then I am taking my AI profits and investing in Quantum computing and Nanotechnology.
Cycles, yes the business cycle (nature) finally will balance the phony money of the past30+ years. The disparity will return the cycle to a fantastic buying opportunity for liquidity. mI’m
Curious : the photo of the Potala Palace before the earthquake ... Why this choice, any reason ?
Concerning IA, if a lot of the ordinary tasks (cleaning, cooking etc) are done by robots I will call that progress. People will have the opportunity to pursue other activities. Lazy or passive individuals are going to totally degenerate that is almost a given.
A debt jubilee likely wouldn't work because: Much of the debt is domestic (held by American citizens, pension funds, and institutions) China only holds about $850 billion in US Treasury securities The Federal Reserve holds about $7 trillion Social Security trust funds hold about $3 trillion The rest is held by various domestic and international investors, banks, and funds
Potential consequences of US debt forgiveness:
Could crash global financial markets
Would destroy the retirement savings of millions
Would likely trigger severe inflation
Would damage US credit rating and future borrowing ability
Mr. Devine, There is a solution, but I know what you're saying. The solution would be to balance the budget. But during the 21st Century, the debt-for-jobs nonsense has gotten so out of control that balancing the budget would result in millions of jobs lost; and, possibly a contagion in the private sector leading to many more millions of jobs lost. So this is not politically possible any longer.
Money moves through an economic system, but so many IOUs moving through the same system simply inflates everything. This is why I agree with Bill that inflation, possibly leading to hyperinflation, will be the terrible result. The big Q is: when will this become unbearable for Americans?
Look at the Fed this late-summer, early-fall. When it looked like unemployment was on the rise, the Fed panicked and cut the short-term rate 1/2 point. Then cut it again 1/4 point not long after that. So the Fed will continue to cause more inflation to ensure unemployment doesn't rise quickly. So I guess the Fed, the POTUS, and Congress have decided that employment stays up as everything gets more and more expensive.
Not a proven commodity at this point in My life. If bitcoin were to last 30 years or more , than I would consider. At the moment no. But thanks for the idea.
Thanks to Clem and AI. "Much of the debt is domestic [is] held by [rich] American citizens, pension funds, and institutions. China only holds about $850 billion [almost $1 Trillion] in US Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve holds about $7 trillion. Social Security trust funds hold about $3 trillion. The rest is held by various domestic and international investors, banks, and funds."
That's my point exactly. Repudiating the national debt is a loss primarily to the rich and the Chinese heirarchy. Liberate the huddled masses of common middle-class net tax-payers. Let the rich effete pay the debt they created. Just say no.
Hey Clem. In my opinion, when this is over, the reserve currency will be lost. I get in my opinion. I am not sure that is a bad thing. Without a printing press, the country would be smaller, less wars, less welfare, etc. The only difference is You would not see people on welfare living like they presently do. Along with the middle class and working class as well. Maybe it’s time for a simpler life America. Like back in the 1950s. May God bless America.🇺🇸🙏
I first heard this referred to as nations "repudiating their debts." Seems to me that is the best, most prudent and fair way to reduce or even eliminate the national debt. Just write it off. The effete rich, banks, and governments who spent and received all the trillions lose, the common man and his children win.
Isn't that what Greece and Argentina have done several times over the past few decades? I always despised them for it...until just lately. Now I'm not so sure.
What are the chances that AI makes the human race even stupider? The brain needs exercise just like our muscles but through the wonders of technology our brains and muscles no longer have to do the work required in the past. Will the future be a race of obese and mindless individuals who need AI just to complete my same tasks? I recently saw a review of a scientific study that reported that London taxi drivers had the lowest incidence of dementia possibly because they had memorize intricate street maps. That advantage will be loss with reliance on GPS. Are we really better off today with all the technological advances than we were in the '50s and 60s?
Spot on.
So AI can answer some questions about the past . But the future, no! Sort of reminds Me of an economist. Take all the past doings and Put them into the present. Yes there are patterns. Some will fall into the future, but some will not . Live day by day, in My opinion. Sufficient unto the day is the evil there of.
I had to ask AI to "Estimate when the US will go over a fiscal cliff?" Its answer was the end 2025. It indicated $5 trillion in new debt is projected to hit in 2025 if current policies are continued.
Yep, Steven, it is coming. The end of the American Empire is not far ahead. Of course, as happens to all empires, most people retreat into heavy denial. But, alas, denial does not keep the empire from falling. As the U.S. continues to believe it is ALL-POWERFUL, the rest of the World sees the emperor has no clothes. Commodities are becoming king - not the US$. Hopefully, Trump and his Trumpsters learn cooperation and negotiation is the way forward - not more wars and more sanctions. Let's hope for a kinder America.
Hey LSO. We are in for a world of hurt with what’s coming. I’ve voted for Trump three times. We are simply going to have a depression, but I would much rather have it under Trump. We will see my friend. Buckle up.
Look to energy. Real wealth is produced by the production and expenditure of energy. (This is why government is generally a net loss.)
The energy demands of AI and extensive data centres may prevent the production of real wealth.
Why not invest in freedom, like Argentina is experiencing. We know freedom produces better growth than everything tried by America over the last 40 years. I find it amazing that instead of freedom our politicians will try anything and lately they are going to control everything and everyone to try out some new form of censorship or eating insects and lab grown meat and then the internet and lately it's AI. Seems to me freedom has already shown itself to be extremely reliable if not the most reliable method of allowing society to "get rich." Why do we have to try everything else before the most logical choice? My guess is Saylor will go down in a blaze of glory, AI will dissatisfy or there will be proofs it often fails and it isn't sentient. Seems to me the highest probability bet is against the US managing their debt crisis i.e. betting against the dollar in the long run and the potlicians who simply couldn't balance the budget due to their vast "intelligence" and their central planning.
This is what Chat GPT posits after reading Mr. B's missive:
Conclusion:
AI is a tool, not a magic bullet. It can enable wealth creation but not without effort, strategic thinking, and a fair amount of luck. Much like other technological advances, the key will be how society chooses to implement and distribute its benefits. While it may open doors to prosperity, it’s unlikely to make everyone rich.
Our debt is the gorilla in the room. It will not go away unless we pay for it. It's pretty simple, in my view. A big question is how will the everyday joe prole be alerted to the point of understanding that he is insolvent? A bigger question is, who will bring it to his attention? The biggest question is... will he vote to pay his debt? I am sure, though; joe prole didn't know the debt was his!!?
Hey Rich. I don’t think he will need to be told. When his money is worthless, I think he will figure out rather quickly. Buckle up.
Michael Saylor is looking pretty good right now. Just sayin...
Shut off his electricity and see how smart he looks then!
heaven forbid, should you lose your phone or your computer?
"It is better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln.
I'm not betting on it either. Saylor now, unfortunately, has to try again in bitcoin. And what is it now? A program which tracks trades in bitcoin and records who owns it. It also has a very expensive method of producing more bitcoin, insuring the value of bitcoin? AI is also a bunch of programs written by the latest bunch of snake oil salesman. No one quite knows what they are doing but they sure think they are smart and announce it along with their mantra "Artificial Intelligence. " It must be smart because they say it is almost sentient. Well humans are sentient and we certainly aren't all rich but maybe this time.
Since you dropped Michael Saylor's early call, I'll simply add that his book, The Mobile Wave, published in May of 2013, was prescient. Everyone who followed his lead and invested in line with his belief at that time has been amply rewarded! More recently, his adoption of Bitcoin in 2020 has seen his company, as well as his followers, also be amply rewarded.
A well-balanced approach to reporting the facts is greatly valued by those of us who have read your newsletters for years. And yes...you've been somewhat early in your calls for Armageddon, Bill!
Agree Craig, and once appreciated Bills "well-balanced"approach, which has become a little lopsided these past few years.
Bills views on Israel vs Hamas, Trump vs the insane left and extremly successful people who support Bitcoin, vs the gold bugs has left many on this site dumbfounded and annoyed to the point of unsubscribing, which is sad because we lost many good people,and many good people lost lots of money by hiding in gold.
I still love Bill and apprciate his brilliance and his family values, and do give him some credit for my personal trade of the decade, or I should say my life, taking most of my money out of stocks and buying more crypto's, which I can't tell you how thankful I am for that.
Sure, one day Bills Armageddon will come to light, and many will perish into financial hell, but until then, learn from your mistakes, buy Bitcoin, enjoy your friends and family, live your life as well as you can, and appreciate each day like it could be your last, becaue one day it will be.
Until then, enjoy and learn from our other dear readers and leave or take whatever advice your logic tells you from our host, becaue even a broken clock is right twice a day:)
I still have all my money invested in 3D printing, the Cloud, the Internet of Things, 5G, Blockchain and Driverless cars. Once I cash in on those I am going all in on AI! Then I am taking my AI profits and investing in Quantum computing and Nanotechnology.
Should be in all the above right now:)
Cycles, yes the business cycle (nature) finally will balance the phony money of the past30+ years. The disparity will return the cycle to a fantastic buying opportunity for liquidity. mI’m
Curious : the photo of the Potala Palace before the earthquake ... Why this choice, any reason ?
Concerning IA, if a lot of the ordinary tasks (cleaning, cooking etc) are done by robots I will call that progress. People will have the opportunity to pursue other activities. Lazy or passive individuals are going to totally degenerate that is almost a given.
It may be time for indebted nations to agree to a Jubilee, the forgiveness of national debt.
Despite recognizing our government is too large and far too costly, there is no way the US can reduce its debt in a meaningful manner.
Our elected officials simply have no cajones to risk alienating offending their constituents who put them in office
From Claude AI.
A debt jubilee likely wouldn't work because: Much of the debt is domestic (held by American citizens, pension funds, and institutions) China only holds about $850 billion in US Treasury securities The Federal Reserve holds about $7 trillion Social Security trust funds hold about $3 trillion The rest is held by various domestic and international investors, banks, and funds
Potential consequences of US debt forgiveness:
Could crash global financial markets
Would destroy the retirement savings of millions
Would likely trigger severe inflation
Would damage US credit rating and future borrowing ability
Could end the dollar's status as reserve currency
Your solution is ?
There is no solution, sorry.
Mr. Devine, There is a solution, but I know what you're saying. The solution would be to balance the budget. But during the 21st Century, the debt-for-jobs nonsense has gotten so out of control that balancing the budget would result in millions of jobs lost; and, possibly a contagion in the private sector leading to many more millions of jobs lost. So this is not politically possible any longer.
Money moves through an economic system, but so many IOUs moving through the same system simply inflates everything. This is why I agree with Bill that inflation, possibly leading to hyperinflation, will be the terrible result. The big Q is: when will this become unbearable for Americans?
Look at the Fed this late-summer, early-fall. When it looked like unemployment was on the rise, the Fed panicked and cut the short-term rate 1/2 point. Then cut it again 1/4 point not long after that. So the Fed will continue to cause more inflation to ensure unemployment doesn't rise quickly. So I guess the Fed, the POTUS, and Congress have decided that employment stays up as everything gets more and more expensive.
Thanks for Your honesty.
Buy Bitcoin:)
Not a proven commodity at this point in My life. If bitcoin were to last 30 years or more , than I would consider. At the moment no. But thanks for the idea.
Thanks to Clem and AI. "Much of the debt is domestic [is] held by [rich] American citizens, pension funds, and institutions. China only holds about $850 billion [almost $1 Trillion] in US Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve holds about $7 trillion. Social Security trust funds hold about $3 trillion. The rest is held by various domestic and international investors, banks, and funds."
That's my point exactly. Repudiating the national debt is a loss primarily to the rich and the Chinese heirarchy. Liberate the huddled masses of common middle-class net tax-payers. Let the rich effete pay the debt they created. Just say no.
What do you all think?
From Claude.
"Much of the debt is domestic (held by American citizens, pension funds, and institutions)"
"What percentage of the debt is held by the domestic debt?:
"Breaking down US debt holdings is complex, but I'll share the approximate percentages based on my last knowledge update:
Of the total US debt:
Roughly 70-75% is held domestically
About 25-30% is held by foreign entities"
70-75% domestically, that is your savings, pension plans, etc. talk about shooting yourself in the foot!
As I see it the only way out, which will be terrible, is hyperinflation, and then following the Argentina path.
So very sad.
Hey Clem. In my opinion, when this is over, the reserve currency will be lost. I get in my opinion. I am not sure that is a bad thing. Without a printing press, the country would be smaller, less wars, less welfare, etc. The only difference is You would not see people on welfare living like they presently do. Along with the middle class and working class as well. Maybe it’s time for a simpler life America. Like back in the 1950s. May God bless America.🇺🇸🙏
I first heard this referred to as nations "repudiating their debts." Seems to me that is the best, most prudent and fair way to reduce or even eliminate the national debt. Just write it off. The effete rich, banks, and governments who spent and received all the trillions lose, the common man and his children win.
Isn't that what Greece and Argentina have done several times over the past few decades? I always despised them for it...until just lately. Now I'm not so sure.
Hey Jonathan. You can’t forget that everyone’s debt payments, or someone else’s income stream. Pensions, Social Security, insurance companies, etc.
I'm 74, and fully expecting a serious decrease in my retirement income. It's either bite the bullet, or eat our young.
See my post above...
Jimm….constituents? Nope, they are not overly concerned about the people but the lobby-ists, the POWER & money they need to get reelected !
There are many 401k millionaires.