A Dirty Business

The West is setting itself up for a huge credit crisis. Central banks will still be able to fund their operations. But they won't be able to protect the value of their own currencies.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 

Bill Bonner, writing today from London

Pity the nation whose people are sheep 

And whose shepherds mislead them   

Pity the nation whose leaders are liars   

Whose sages are silenced   

And whose bigots haunt the airwaves   

Pity the nation that raises not its voice   

Except to praise conquerors   

And acclaim the bully as hero   

And aims to rule the world  

By force and by torture...   

—Lawrence Ferlinghetti  

On the steps of the old church, stood an old man, with an old flag... honoring the death of an old soldier. 

The deceased was also an old friend. 

The day was warm. But the inside of the stone church was cool. There were about one hundred mourners. Ignoring the alarming headlines, we took time out in the middle of a work day to say goodbye. 

France is in an uproar. The Daily Mail: 

France battles to keep Le Pen from power: Panicking President Macron calls crisis meeting to defeat National Rally as socialists urge French leader's supporters to back them and 'do everything to prevent' hard-right election victory on Sunday. 

The ‘hard’ right may not be as steely as the crisis mongers claim. All over Europe (as in America), the ‘right’ is on the rise. Often called a ‘populous,’ ‘nationalist,’ or simply ‘right wing’ movement, it is easily mistaken for a real change of direction.  

But a fundamental change of direction would mean reversing the growth of government, reducing its spending and backing away from its wars. The ‘populists’ have various ideas on these subjects — some good, some bad — but as far as we know, none really favors a fundamental change. And as far as we can tell, nothing that they offer will derail the coming financial debacle. 

The West is setting itself up for a huge credit crisis. Central banks and central governments will still be able to fund their operations... and will still be able to boost (nominal) asset prices. But they won’t be able to protect the value of their own currencies. Shrewd investors — including foreign central banks — are preparing by buying gold. We are too. 

Meanwhile... we were saying goodbye to an old friend...  

We sang our hymns. We said our prayers. We took the host but not the cup... (they do not share the wine in French Catholic services).  

And at the end... we lined up to sprinkle holy water on the casket. It was then that we noticed: something was missing. Pierre was a retired colonel in the French Army. Typically, the government honors its soldiers with a flag draped over the coffin. But there was no flag. 

We knew Pierre from the church choir. We both sang bass. Pierre had no ear for music. So, we put him in the center... where he could follow along.  

“It can be a dirty business,” Pierre had told us, speaking of his lifelong military profession.  

People look to the government to reduce the uncertainty in their lives. They don’t necessarily like their government. Still, they much prefer to be robbed by their own leaders, systematically and more-or-less peacefully, than to suffer violence, rapine and theft at the hands of foreign invaders. Then, the elites praise their men in uniform…but use them to leverage their own power and increase their own wealth.  

General Smedley Butler, twice winner of the medal of honor, saw first- hand how it works: 

I spent thirty three years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. 

It was the Algerian War that most troubled Pierre. By 1956, there were 400,000 French troops in the North African country. They were called in to help put down a rebellion by local ‘terrorists.’ Fresh from their defeat in Indo-China, the French army nevertheless pioneered many of the tactics that would later be used by the US in Vietnam — the helicopter, napalm and ‘strategic hamlets’ — with equally dismal results.  

“[The Algerian War] was obviously unwinnable,” he told us. “But that wasn’t the worst of it. It was also destroying the French army. We were expected to do things that weren’t right. Torturing prisoners to get information. Ignoring civilian casualties. Retaliating for murders with more murders. 

“An army can win against another army. It can’t win against terrorists... or call them ‘freedom fighters,’ if you want. Because the harder it cracks down, the more people support the terrorists. Then the army begins to act like a police force...not a real army.  And usually, a corrupt and brutal police force. It can keep a lid on things... even for a long time. But not forever.”  

Whether it was Pierre’s choice... or his family’s... we don’t know. But Pierre’s coffin was bare. 

Regards, 

Bill Bonner 

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Investment Note, By Tom Dyson

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, over two years ago. This is the longest inversion since the early 1980s. Popular market lore says an inverted yield curve signals recession. But this isn't quite the case.

If you look closely at the chart below, it's not inverted yield curves that signal recession. It's inverted yield curves that become uninverted yield curves that signal recessions. The chart below shows the 10yr-2yr curve. The shaded areas indicate recessions. Notice recessions have occured only after the inverted curve turns positive. 

Recently, the yield curve has become less inverted... but it's still negative, meaning, no recession yet. But lets keep our eyes on this chart. As soon as the curve goes positive, we can start expecting that recession we've been waiting for for so long.