Wealth comes from profit-making businesses. The profit is the measure of how much wealth they create; it is the difference between the cost of doing something...and what that thing is actually worth.
Bill is right and its hard to know given the enormous distortions. I thought well, if btc can go to $100K+, homes to $1.5M in CAD terms $.5M USD surely gold could go to $10K ? Personally I wish the entire market imploded but I dont believe I'll get that wish. They will print, and print....... a crack-up boom. Those psycho's are all in now committed, although, they should be committed.
I was thinking back to the (one) time Dr Ron Paul got to question Benny Bernanke, and he held up a gold coin and asked Benny, "What is this?" Benny was perplexed, but admitted that the gold coin was money, not just a substitute for money.
Bring Trump into a conversation and the comments shoot past 100. Leave him out and you’ll be lucky to hit 25. Whatever else he may be, he’s definitely polarizing.
After 1980 gold fell for 20 years and took another 25 to recover. Later gold with none if the risk and volatility of the stock market did more better. Hmmmmmmmm are the fish biting?
BB-Thank you. This is what I singed up for. Your vision for where the economy is going. Gold to Dow at ‘5’ is a good measurement. Do more of this and less politics. This would make me happy and I’m sure most of your following. AP
In 1990, a friend and myself were listening to REM " can't get there from here " and decided we were going to try. Philomath, GA was a place difficult to find on most maps. It was a lightly faded word with a small open circle. Some maps deleted it entirely. After a few hours we did get there from here. But, once there, we didn't want to be there. Some places you actually can get to, but they turn out to not be worth the effort or the risk.
After reading Bill today, I think about how Buffett has invested in companies that created wealth over the past 60 years. Most of that time, I think Bill has be slinking in the shadows. Does Bill lack the confidence to pick consistent winners? I don't know Bill, but I feel certain his fortunes have come from providing conservative guidance and entertainment with his musings with some success from stock investing.
I have a feeling most of us are not going to like the future. I believe that most people are happier when more people are well off and healthy. Aren't you glad that your neighbors are wealthy/healthy? Their wealth and health make the neighborhood (and thus the world) a better place. The future is not hopeless or totally uncertain. You see, there are days of reckoning coming, judgment days. It is not uncertain. It is certain. The uncertain part is what is your role in it. I suspect most of us reading Bill's newsletter are old. We are just hoping the can can get kicked down the road right past us so that we don't have to deal with it. That may happen, but not for all of us. That is when we are going to be there, but dont want to be. A few sheckels of gold may be the right recipe to ride out the storm. My view is that a few acres of land would be even better.
Better yet, from one old guy to another; keep your family close, teach maybe invest in their independence. Next keep your neighbors close, if possible treat them like family. When the chips are down, if the SHTF, you'll be better off for it.
If you can't find a bolt hole create one where you live.
Worst thing that happened to America was government programs, education, and media breaking up the family. I'm acquainted with two clans for want of a better word. One in South Philadelphia, they own several homes on both sides of their little street. These homes are occupied but not directly owned by the occupants, all homes are free and clear, they have zero debt. The family owns several businesses created to benefit the family as needed. Somewhat like a mafia but with no criminal intent. The other family clan lives just off I-80 in God's Country, yes that is what the sign on the PA turnpike reads. They own almost every house on the street, same deal. I believe Rockefeller had his entire family as employees and occupants in his NY mansion. There is something to be said for a family business, I notice Bill has one also.
All that is so true. However, we (the US) have "never" had a debt problem (and growing) like we currently have. If, when, ever, or in anyone's imagination can this debt be paid off without something happening to the value of our dollar. Either the value of the dollar tanks thru inflation or we have a depression that would make the 1930s look like kids games. As I see it, Bill's theory of buying value stocks, when the Dow/Gold ratios hits 5 (assuming that the "middle" class has enough "money" to buy the stocks and hold for many years (if you are "young") or you hold on to your gold/gold stocks or silver coins, for partial sale (for living expenses), if and as needed, when all hell breaks loose. If we are blest and live thru what's coming, and we have some money, "whatever form" left; then and only then can we worry about the magical Dow/Gold 5. Oh, I almost forgot. Those "1" percenters (like Bill) don't have to worry about just existing, like we middle classers will have too when the forthcoming crap hits the fan. However, they might want to get down on their knees and thank the Lord for their blessings, like some of us do nightly.
Off topic but interesting. I had NO idea the "Work Visa" universe was so vast, differentiated and complicated. Like everything our "leaders" do, there are good points and bad points.
Bottom Line question for the libtarded, dimocrat and communist - why does the whole world want to get into our Racist, Bigoted, Homophobic, etc., etc. Country to the extent we need a system like this one??
Lol. It’s not about people banging down the door — it’s about American industry needing brains it can’t find at home. Manufacturing, tech, science… they all depend on talent from abroad. So yelling 'bring back manufacturing and industry' while keeping skilled workers out is like demanding crops without planting seeds. Doesn’t add up.
There are plenty of skilled workers in America, the hires from overseas work cheaper.
A profitable business is maintained juggling labor, cost of materials, and sales. Labor tends to be the most costly component of any manufacturing business. Cutting labor costs with automation or less expensive hires leads to profit.
I know a young man in the employ of Amazon hire to automate former human tasks. Recently he quipped; "When Amazon sends me out, it's a message to the employees, I'm here so you soon won't be". He's been quite busy traveling last year he was home 6 weeks. A young man's job no doubt.
At the end of the day, this surtax is about money — and no matter which way you cut it, US manufacturers lose.
Option 1: Hire Locally
If they hire locally, payroll costs rise year after year. Wages, benefits, training, healthcare — all add up. Companies absorb it for a while, but it steadily erodes margins.
Option 2: Hire Abroad
If they bring in outside help, they face a massive $100,000 up-front surtax per worker. Sure, they might save on annual salaries over the long term, but that initial levy is a huge added cost of doing business. It’s not a free pass — it’s just a different way to bleed cash.
The Net Result
Either way, the government has raised the cost of payroll. The surcharge makes it harder to hire talent from abroad, while local hires remain expensive to maintain. And when costs rise, manufacturers don’t just eat the loss — they pass it on to consumers.
The Bigger Picture
That means American products become less competitive in global markets. Artificial barriers like this surtax don’t actually protect US workers in the long run — they just price US goods higher, push production elsewhere, and weaken competitiveness.
At the end of the day we're living in a doom cycle caused by government created inflation and meddling in the public space.
The solution to foreign hires is to fix the immigration system. Making America Great Again will require allowing a path to citizenship for smart people who will add to America not vote for the very governments and cultures they fled.
I'd go one further for any foreign worker coming in from Mexico or the world. a third generation welfare recipient should be deported to the nation of their choice. Additionally any college student unhappy with the idea of MAGA should be offered deportation to Canada or South Africa.
One way or another a purge is coming to America, we are either cutting welfare to chronically unproductive or nature will take its course and the productive middle class be destroyed. If the later happens you can be assured America will break up into city states and the unproductive will starve to death.
It appears, throughout the years, that whenever there was a “sourpuss” company in the Dow, that it was replaced with another “better” company, just to keep the Dow propped up. As long as that’s the case, when will you ever know the proper entry point to exchange gold for the Dow?
Gold his money, there is no capital gains tax on the sale of gold in theory. Personally I'd not report a gain. My father bought an investment property just before gold plunged. $64,000 worth of Krugerrands. Literally the best investment in his short life, it would not have been possible for a working guy with 7 kids to afford and renovate without the gold he purchased for $173 an ounce. He sold literally at the peak price before the decline. He was a fan of Howard Ruff.
The performance of XOP notwithstanding, I am thinking about learning how to spell oil with gold. Is electricity cheap? Beef still seems expensive, probably because of all the sirloin primals I bought at $3.00/lb for years. Lean ground beef is $5/ at sams, now....
Avocados are $3.00 in Smithers. I didn't notice any stotes in Mayo but people live there so there must be something around there. I paid $6.00 for a Coors Light at the Carmacks campground (currently for sale...) by the Yukon River. I almost fell asleep on the bench in the dust by the swift Yukon. It flows left to right there which confused me since it ultimately flows up and out through Alaska. It wasn't nearly as cold as the rivers nearer to the glaciers. Bears everywhere on the road trying to get away from me as I tried to take their picture!
One of the few things Keynes got right is, "Markets can remain irrational longer than (you) can remain solvent."
The counter-balance is, "Gold is money. Nothing else is."
Bill is right and its hard to know given the enormous distortions. I thought well, if btc can go to $100K+, homes to $1.5M in CAD terms $.5M USD surely gold could go to $10K ? Personally I wish the entire market imploded but I dont believe I'll get that wish. They will print, and print....... a crack-up boom. Those psycho's are all in now committed, although, they should be committed.
Gold is money. Everything else is credit. - J.P. Morgan.
I was thinking back to the (one) time Dr Ron Paul got to question Benny Bernanke, and he held up a gold coin and asked Benny, "What is this?" Benny was perplexed, but admitted that the gold coin was money, not just a substitute for money.
What is money? Gold?
"𝘚𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘨𝘰𝘭𝘥, 𝘸𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘖𝘍 𝘨𝘰𝘭𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘐𝘕 𝘨𝘰𝘭𝘥."
The old Bill Bonner in a nutshell - right on point and Trump derangement-free.
Learn it, Live it, Love it........
Bring Trump into a conversation and the comments shoot past 100. Leave him out and you’ll be lucky to hit 25. Whatever else he may be, he’s definitely polarizing.
Up. Down. Sideways. Good grief. All of this gives me a headache. At least, not (yet) an ulcer.
I think I'll stay off of the roller-coaster; just sit tight...and go fishing.
Attaboy. Now you're thinkin'.....,
After 1980 gold fell for 20 years and took another 25 to recover. Later gold with none if the risk and volatility of the stock market did more better. Hmmmmmmmm are the fish biting?
BB-Thank you. This is what I singed up for. Your vision for where the economy is going. Gold to Dow at ‘5’ is a good measurement. Do more of this and less politics. This would make me happy and I’m sure most of your following. AP
In 1990, a friend and myself were listening to REM " can't get there from here " and decided we were going to try. Philomath, GA was a place difficult to find on most maps. It was a lightly faded word with a small open circle. Some maps deleted it entirely. After a few hours we did get there from here. But, once there, we didn't want to be there. Some places you actually can get to, but they turn out to not be worth the effort or the risk.
After reading Bill today, I think about how Buffett has invested in companies that created wealth over the past 60 years. Most of that time, I think Bill has be slinking in the shadows. Does Bill lack the confidence to pick consistent winners? I don't know Bill, but I feel certain his fortunes have come from providing conservative guidance and entertainment with his musings with some success from stock investing.
I have a feeling most of us are not going to like the future. I believe that most people are happier when more people are well off and healthy. Aren't you glad that your neighbors are wealthy/healthy? Their wealth and health make the neighborhood (and thus the world) a better place. The future is not hopeless or totally uncertain. You see, there are days of reckoning coming, judgment days. It is not uncertain. It is certain. The uncertain part is what is your role in it. I suspect most of us reading Bill's newsletter are old. We are just hoping the can can get kicked down the road right past us so that we don't have to deal with it. That may happen, but not for all of us. That is when we are going to be there, but dont want to be. A few sheckels of gold may be the right recipe to ride out the storm. My view is that a few acres of land would be even better.
Better yet, from one old guy to another; keep your family close, teach maybe invest in their independence. Next keep your neighbors close, if possible treat them like family. When the chips are down, if the SHTF, you'll be better off for it.
If you can't find a bolt hole create one where you live.
Worst thing that happened to America was government programs, education, and media breaking up the family. I'm acquainted with two clans for want of a better word. One in South Philadelphia, they own several homes on both sides of their little street. These homes are occupied but not directly owned by the occupants, all homes are free and clear, they have zero debt. The family owns several businesses created to benefit the family as needed. Somewhat like a mafia but with no criminal intent. The other family clan lives just off I-80 in God's Country, yes that is what the sign on the PA turnpike reads. They own almost every house on the street, same deal. I believe Rockefeller had his entire family as employees and occupants in his NY mansion. There is something to be said for a family business, I notice Bill has one also.
But with Gold I can take your land and anything else I want. Let that sink in..
How about both?
What if the DOW/GOLD ratio bottoms out at 5.1 ?
Or worse, at 2 or 1 and you bought at 5?!?
I would still be happy
It is always a delight to go thru Bills' insights on Money.
All that is so true. However, we (the US) have "never" had a debt problem (and growing) like we currently have. If, when, ever, or in anyone's imagination can this debt be paid off without something happening to the value of our dollar. Either the value of the dollar tanks thru inflation or we have a depression that would make the 1930s look like kids games. As I see it, Bill's theory of buying value stocks, when the Dow/Gold ratios hits 5 (assuming that the "middle" class has enough "money" to buy the stocks and hold for many years (if you are "young") or you hold on to your gold/gold stocks or silver coins, for partial sale (for living expenses), if and as needed, when all hell breaks loose. If we are blest and live thru what's coming, and we have some money, "whatever form" left; then and only then can we worry about the magical Dow/Gold 5. Oh, I almost forgot. Those "1" percenters (like Bill) don't have to worry about just existing, like we middle classers will have too when the forthcoming crap hits the fan. However, they might want to get down on their knees and thank the Lord for their blessings, like some of us do nightly.
Amen sir
Pricing aside, it's still one of the few places you can hang out without being exposed to the counterparty risk associated with a credit meltdown
Off topic but interesting. I had NO idea the "Work Visa" universe was so vast, differentiated and complicated. Like everything our "leaders" do, there are good points and bad points.
Bottom Line question for the libtarded, dimocrat and communist - why does the whole world want to get into our Racist, Bigoted, Homophobic, etc., etc. Country to the extent we need a system like this one??
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1970088185851240744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1970088185851240744%7Ctwgr%5Ee5b96cc89d8b6c29d80e31df237c0d511f911e57%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.whatfinger.com%2F
Lol. It’s not about people banging down the door — it’s about American industry needing brains it can’t find at home. Manufacturing, tech, science… they all depend on talent from abroad. So yelling 'bring back manufacturing and industry' while keeping skilled workers out is like demanding crops without planting seeds. Doesn’t add up.
There are plenty of skilled workers in America, the hires from overseas work cheaper.
A profitable business is maintained juggling labor, cost of materials, and sales. Labor tends to be the most costly component of any manufacturing business. Cutting labor costs with automation or less expensive hires leads to profit.
I know a young man in the employ of Amazon hire to automate former human tasks. Recently he quipped; "When Amazon sends me out, it's a message to the employees, I'm here so you soon won't be". He's been quite busy traveling last year he was home 6 weeks. A young man's job no doubt.
At the end of the day, this surtax is about money — and no matter which way you cut it, US manufacturers lose.
Option 1: Hire Locally
If they hire locally, payroll costs rise year after year. Wages, benefits, training, healthcare — all add up. Companies absorb it for a while, but it steadily erodes margins.
Option 2: Hire Abroad
If they bring in outside help, they face a massive $100,000 up-front surtax per worker. Sure, they might save on annual salaries over the long term, but that initial levy is a huge added cost of doing business. It’s not a free pass — it’s just a different way to bleed cash.
The Net Result
Either way, the government has raised the cost of payroll. The surcharge makes it harder to hire talent from abroad, while local hires remain expensive to maintain. And when costs rise, manufacturers don’t just eat the loss — they pass it on to consumers.
The Bigger Picture
That means American products become less competitive in global markets. Artificial barriers like this surtax don’t actually protect US workers in the long run — they just price US goods higher, push production elsewhere, and weaken competitiveness.
At the end of the day we're living in a doom cycle caused by government created inflation and meddling in the public space.
The solution to foreign hires is to fix the immigration system. Making America Great Again will require allowing a path to citizenship for smart people who will add to America not vote for the very governments and cultures they fled.
I'd go one further for any foreign worker coming in from Mexico or the world. a third generation welfare recipient should be deported to the nation of their choice. Additionally any college student unhappy with the idea of MAGA should be offered deportation to Canada or South Africa.
One way or another a purge is coming to America, we are either cutting welfare to chronically unproductive or nature will take its course and the productive middle class be destroyed. If the later happens you can be assured America will break up into city states and the unproductive will starve to death.
Great, insightful post, Bill, thank you.
Bill, question…..
It appears, throughout the years, that whenever there was a “sourpuss” company in the Dow, that it was replaced with another “better” company, just to keep the Dow propped up. As long as that’s the case, when will you ever know the proper entry point to exchange gold for the Dow?
So , when I sell my gold holdings to buy the Dow , how are my profits taxed?
Gold his money, there is no capital gains tax on the sale of gold in theory. Personally I'd not report a gain. My father bought an investment property just before gold plunged. $64,000 worth of Krugerrands. Literally the best investment in his short life, it would not have been possible for a working guy with 7 kids to afford and renovate without the gold he purchased for $173 an ounce. He sold literally at the peak price before the decline. He was a fan of Howard Ruff.
Canada: 50% inclusion at marginal rates for capital gains.
USA: Up to 28% flat for long-term capital gains on gold (higher than the usual capital gains rate).
Both countries have ways to defer these taxes down the road, or ways of softening the tax blow.
i have moat of my stocks in a ROTH IRA and trade little in personal account for tax reasons.
Thanks , Guess that blows the chance of beating inflation with recorded gold holdings huh?
Hey Bill, do you have a Dow silver ratio as well?
Interesting question.
BullyBully....
The performance of XOP notwithstanding, I am thinking about learning how to spell oil with gold. Is electricity cheap? Beef still seems expensive, probably because of all the sirloin primals I bought at $3.00/lb for years. Lean ground beef is $5/ at sams, now....
Avocados are $3.00 in Smithers. I didn't notice any stotes in Mayo but people live there so there must be something around there. I paid $6.00 for a Coors Light at the Carmacks campground (currently for sale...) by the Yukon River. I almost fell asleep on the bench in the dust by the swift Yukon. It flows left to right there which confused me since it ultimately flows up and out through Alaska. It wasn't nearly as cold as the rivers nearer to the glaciers. Bears everywhere on the road trying to get away from me as I tried to take their picture!
"‘Investors forsake stocks...possibly forever.’ Then, we make the sign of the cross…buy stocks…and hope we can get there from here."
And that is all anyone can do, if you don't own a profitable business.