When hell breaks loose

We’ve seen that the West stopped the peace initiative between Russia and the Ukraine in May 2022. We’ve seen too that the US foreign policy elite seem almost desperately eager to avoid a Trump-led set

Monday, September 30th, 2024

Bill Bonner, writing today from Dublin, Ireland  

What's the point of having this superb military that you're always talking about if we can't use it? 

Madeleine Albright, former US Secretary of State 

The Daily Mail quotes UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres: 'Hell is breaking loose' as Israel rejects calls for ceasefire .

Today we look at where Hell goes from here. We have no original research on the matter. We just pass along what we believe to be sensible scuttlebutt from our own ‘intel’ contacts. 

We’ve seen that the West stopped the peace initiative between Russia and the Ukraine in May 2022. We’ve seen too that the US foreign policy elite seem almost desperately eager to avoid a Trump-led settlement now.  

We’ve seen too, that the Biden Team’s calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon appear to be fake. They insist that Israel stop the killing; but then, Israel continues... and the US sends more weapons. Seeking Alpha: 

The Middle East continues to be on edge, as Israel bombed Houthi targets in Yemen and ramped up strikes in Lebanon after killing Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah last week. Israel carried out airstrikes on Yemen's port of Hodeidah on Sunday, which it said were in response to recent Houthi attacks on Israel. Houthis on Saturday launched a missile attack on the Ben Gurion Airport when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was arriving. 

From what we can tell, Russia, Iran, and Lebanon appear ready to stand down...if given a reasonable opportunity. This is not necessarily because they have flowers in their hair... or are any more peace-loving than the West. More likely, it is simply a good strategy for nations facing a much more powerful enemy; they want to avoid conflict...or at least postpone it. 

If that is so, it also suggests a motive for the West’s aggressiveness. In the 1930s, Hitler and Mussolini wanted war. The Allies didn’t. They hadn’t prepared for it. Today, the West is prepared to a fault... brimming with weapons and ruled by a foreign policy elite that is eager to use them. 

They think they can win a war, now. Later, victory will be less certain. 

Each 24 hours, the West grows ‘another day older and deeper in debt.’ The East, meanwhile, gets bigger... more technologically advanced... and more aggrieved.  

On the steppes, our guess is that Hell will have to wait. Both sides appear to be worn out. The western press cheered and fawned over Zelensky’s bold attack on the Russian motherland. It was heralded as a ‘game changer’ by the Russophobes. But it didn’t seem to change much at all — except that the Ukraine used up more of its vital supplies of manpower and materiel. This makes Zelensky’s ‘Victory Plan’ seem less and less plausible.  

And now, unless some new ‘red line’ is crossed, the conflict is likely to wind down, with the Russians still in control of the Russian-speaking eastern provinces.  

But there is another front in the East-West forever war; this is where the demons are more likely to run loose. Israel’s problem seems to be that it wants a war... but it can’t find anyone to have a war with. Hamas (supported by the Netanyahu government) provided a casus belli when it attacked Israel last year. But that ‘war’ is pretty much over. Gaza has been flattened. Its hospitals, schools, roads, and other public services are mostly destroyed. And they won’t be rebuilt, not as long as Israel controls the border and can stop incoming steel and cement.  

The leadership of Lebanon, Iran, and even Hezbollah have largely avoided the temptation to strike back in a meaningful way. The little striking they have done seems to have been more for show than for any real military advantage.  

Until now, Israel’s enemies have not shown much imagination or energy. They’ve been remarkably restrained. And one of the chief restrainers of Hezbollah was its head, Sayyed Nasrallah. But Israel just killed him. A possible outcome: like ISIS took the place of Al Qaeda, more daring leadership may take his place... and may provide Israel with a reason to launch another major war (if it hasn’t done so already).  

The objective? To create a buffer zone in Lebanon? To dismantle Hezbollah completely? Or regime change in Iran? 

Israel can bomb, bomb, bomb...but can it win a ground war against a determined opponent? 

Stay tuned...  

Regards, 

Bill Bonner