Sometime in the future, the stockholders’ good luck is likely to vanish. Stocks have real value. That real worth — the present value of future earnings — must ultimately be expressed in prices.
Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict. Everyone seems to understand there are cycles and no one seems to have a clue of the timing. "Timing" that old bugaboo. When to get in, When to get out! Those of the younger generation can be more cavalier than us ol' folks. There is a season for everything and today it may be time to "play it safe" especially those of us in the Boomer Generation. Little time left to recover from the foolishness we had in youth. It isn't a stable western financial world anymore.....as the World continues to break apart into a multi-polar world, things are going to be vastly different. The American Hegemony combining our military and reserve currency is not the world force it was in our youth. Far from it. Our military isn't all powerful and technology in some arenas find us far behind. The US$ - while not going away any time soon (why - you ask - because there is just too much of it floating all around the world) but it has lost its dominance. Trust in the good ol' USofA is a horse of a different color - frankly and unfortunately, gone like the wind. From this ol' man's perspective, it is absolutely time to be safe so I am not sorry just around the corner. My thoughts - are my opinion and everyone has an opinion including ol' Billy Boy!
I don’t normally agree with you on politics. But I think you are on the money economically. I’m an old fart as you are and it is a difficult decision on what to do. The best thing to do in my opinion is to diversify. A little in good dividend stocks, some gold,and Silver, some crypto and some cash. We will soon find out where it all falls.
Ol' Stiff.......I knew you would be amazed. It is Friday and I so hope it helps you limp through the weekend. Life is rough and tumble for those of the manual labor class. But it is good to see you here trying to gain wisdom from ol' Mr. Bill and those roaming the Comments. He is coming up on the 77th celebration of coming back from the Bardo Plane.
Amazin' Patrick. Because you - apparently - disagree that makes me what? Seriously, that gets your panties in an uproar. What a hoot! And, some wonder why America is circling the drain.......
Well, it is Friday and this ol' man seems a little sensitive today. Hmmmm.......thank you - once again you have given me pause to ponder. Here in LA (Lower Alabama - that is) it is First Friday. My apology....need to dial back my sensitivity meter.
Consider me "chilled". It is Friday and us ol' Boomers always hope for a little leeway from the youngsters. Have a Great Weekend! After all, it is First Friday here in Fairhope on the Eastern Shore where Farragut was heard to mumble - "Damn the torpedoes, Gridley, Full Speed Ahead!". It was a Friday then as it is now. It is 5 o'clock somewhere and I am off to celebrate!
Full disclosure: I have no stake in stocks,have not had a stake since 1999, and I don't want one now or ever. I think the stock market is a rigged game, and with stocks, you are working for the government, which can't wait to extract its 15%-28% pound of flesh. Ask yourself: who truly benefits from outrageous stock appreciation?
All that aside, we are looking at this from an historical perspective. Traditional metrics are always based on the period in the USA when the money was essentially stable. All that changed in the mid to late 60s and definitely in 1971, with Mr. Bonner's beloved "gold window" closing. So, for all of my investing life, the game essentially was changed. There are no signs, no indicators, so far as I can divine, that the game is going back to the old fundamentals. What if this is the new normal? Seen from an historical perspective, the whole thamn ding must SURELY be ready to blow, right? I thought for SURE in 1979-80, when the deficit crossed the trillion-dollar line that the end of the world were at hand, but you know what? We just kept adding zeroes. It was both simple and easy, and certainly expedient. As my then 25-year old son told me back in 2010 on a drive through the east-side hills of Cincinnati on the way to Pittsburgh (family business), "Face it, Dad: the good times are never coming back." Best always. PM
Cheer up brother Paul! Really nothing to worry about. Life and people have and will continue to be what they are! Nothing has changed. The “good times” are always what we create, as are the bad. Choices my friend. Old sick men like ourselves have lived through the best of times, and now in our twilight years, just need to be happy with ourselves and what we created. Our happiness is our children, families and friends. Our gift is what God has given us, and the ability to work and make this on our own. Such a beautiful gift. So sit back my friend, and enjoy all the coming good times, for those times are fleeting 🙏
I didn't mean to convey that I am unhappy or down in the dumps, although I am frustrated with current conditions, and how they came to be. Truth has a way of slipping in at unexpected times and places. I am, however, very practical by nature, always wanting to do the things that give me and others a chance to grow and progress. The lesson my son imparted that day was a blessing, his way of telling the old man to get a grip. We still laugh about it. He is an excellent and successful businessman today. Best always. PM
I get it brother! Reading your post these past six years told me that you are a very intelligent man and very successful. Intelligent because you left the stress of the market and invested in whatever made you happy. It’s always been about faith, family and friends. Nothing else matters. I was blessed with all three precious gifts, and God guided me to make the right decisions in finance, so it’s been a beautiful journey. Not always easy, and with much pain, but somehow we managed and get through it. Which makes the good times even better😊. Stay strong my friend, and focus on all the good, God and family, and only good will follow you the rest of your days 🙏
What if this is the new normal? E.B. Tucker has a great newsletter on Substack. He writes:
"The ideal way to manage an economic system is create a perpetual bull market, steadily increasing by small ticks each day. A lot like walking up deep, small, low-grade stairs for a year. Then occasionally falling down an elevator shaft before starting over close to but still above the prior bottom.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told us this plan in November 2010. He printed it in the editorial section of a major newspaper.
'[…] higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
Ben Bernanke – Washington Post November 3, 2010
The key to Chairman Bernanke’s theory was emotional management. People behave well when they feel rich. Never mind if the wealth is merely smoke and mirrors… it’s about how they behave."
The economy feels like an experiment I did in Pharmacy school. Unfortunately it involved a frog. If you put a frog in boiling water it will die. BUT if you have a frog in warm water and slowly increase the temperature it will survive much longer. Kinda like our economy; a slow death.
I'll think about you the next time I indulge in a dietary sin, such as an Eckrich Jalapeno-cheddar smoked sausage (with sauerkraut and yellow mustard on whole wheat bread). I'm always careful to warm the tube steak gradually... Best always. PM
Brother Xave, Always a blessing to see you in my reply box! Happy is the day I made your acquaintance via this forum. You are, indeed, our resident mystic. Best always. PM
I don't know who said it originally, but I heard a stand-up comedian, Brother Dave Gardner (1926-1983), state it in performance, and perhaps it is original with him, but, regardless, it is succinct in its correctness: "Success is getting what you want; happiness is wanting what you get." (And Flip Wilson: "What you see is what you get!") The Lord has been very good to me, no doubt. PM
Brother Paul, I give one observation. In my house there are four people. We have three cars. Thankfully, at last, my grandson drives himself to school, my daughter to work.
My difficulty is parking.
You must have a wonderful spread to fit those seven cars. And, most importantly, a wonderful family.
I've got 4 acres out in the country. I've had as many as 10 cars (now down to 5) out on the driveway, which is as big as some suburban streets. Down to 5 now. When I moved here in 1990, there was NO ZONING at all. My kind of arrangement. Best always. PM
Hello Paul. Here in West Virginia, we bought unrestricted acres. I could build a shopping center, apartment complex, or cemetery on my property. I truly enjoy the government not always telling me what to do. Freedom.🇱🇷🇱🇷
Don't cry for me, Argentina, or anybody else. It was a needed reality-check. We still laugh about it to this day, especially when he comes to me for business advice/encouragement. Best always. PM
Cash (various instruments) and metals (not all gold and silver) exclusively. That's it. Though now retired, I was self-employed since 1990 in sales and marketing, both as a manufacturer representative and a consultant. I started in stocks in 1966 while still in my teens at the urging of my Dad, an inveterate trader. Back then, we were focused on returns, not growth. I remember when the Dow was under 1000 but had real manufacturing companies as its component. The government taught me well how to hate traditional investing. They always took it all, the federal government through income and capital gains taxes, and the state government through intangibles/ad valorem taxes. What a rip-off. Best always. PM
An important difference between businesses traded in the stock markets and those that are privately held is the amount of emotional investment and capital that is used to push them ever higher.
Sometimes, having access to capital can be a curse as I think many at the top of the tree are about to discover.
I recognize that you are not and have no desire to be a "Crypto Bro" Bill, but I note you are at the very lease inculcated to some degree by your use of the Crypto Term HODL.
Always enjoy your thoughts and glad to hear that in your French Wedding conversation, you are close to the well known Bill Bonner.
Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict. Everyone seems to understand there are cycles and no one seems to have a clue of the timing. "Timing" that old bugaboo. When to get in, When to get out! Those of the younger generation can be more cavalier than us ol' folks. There is a season for everything and today it may be time to "play it safe" especially those of us in the Boomer Generation. Little time left to recover from the foolishness we had in youth. It isn't a stable western financial world anymore.....as the World continues to break apart into a multi-polar world, things are going to be vastly different. The American Hegemony combining our military and reserve currency is not the world force it was in our youth. Far from it. Our military isn't all powerful and technology in some arenas find us far behind. The US$ - while not going away any time soon (why - you ask - because there is just too much of it floating all around the world) but it has lost its dominance. Trust in the good ol' USofA is a horse of a different color - frankly and unfortunately, gone like the wind. From this ol' man's perspective, it is absolutely time to be safe so I am not sorry just around the corner. My thoughts - are my opinion and everyone has an opinion including ol' Billy Boy!
I don’t normally agree with you on politics. But I think you are on the money economically. I’m an old fart as you are and it is a difficult decision on what to do. The best thing to do in my opinion is to diversify. A little in good dividend stocks, some gold,and Silver, some crypto and some cash. We will soon find out where it all falls.
i am absolutely amazed at your level of intelligence, where did you come up with these brilliant comments:
"Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict."
Such a classic! The brilliance is absolutely amazing! wow -
Ol' Stiff.......I knew you would be amazed. It is Friday and I so hope it helps you limp through the weekend. Life is rough and tumble for those of the manual labor class. But it is good to see you here trying to gain wisdom from ol' Mr. Bill and those roaming the Comments. He is coming up on the 77th celebration of coming back from the Bardo Plane.
An opinion, And an asshole!
Amazin' Patrick. Because you - apparently - disagree that makes me what? Seriously, that gets your panties in an uproar. What a hoot! And, some wonder why America is circling the drain.......
Naw ! I liked Ur comment as always. I was just stating an old saying, I thought you would appreciate.
Well, it is Friday and this ol' man seems a little sensitive today. Hmmmm.......thank you - once again you have given me pause to ponder. Here in LA (Lower Alabama - that is) it is First Friday. My apology....need to dial back my sensitivity meter.
Chill, Geezer. The Fossil Neff was referring to "Opinions are like A**holes - everybody's got one..."
Consider me "chilled". It is Friday and us ol' Boomers always hope for a little leeway from the youngsters. Have a Great Weekend! After all, it is First Friday here in Fairhope on the Eastern Shore where Farragut was heard to mumble - "Damn the torpedoes, Gridley, Full Speed Ahead!". It was a Friday then as it is now. It is 5 o'clock somewhere and I am off to celebrate!
AH! Yes ,Stary, I knew I would get a raze out of U on this,
Thx for the clarification. And This was especially meant for U with all Ur IMO's (ignorant IMO's I must say).
Good to see, you are a good old boy from the south, my favorite people.
Full disclosure: I have no stake in stocks,have not had a stake since 1999, and I don't want one now or ever. I think the stock market is a rigged game, and with stocks, you are working for the government, which can't wait to extract its 15%-28% pound of flesh. Ask yourself: who truly benefits from outrageous stock appreciation?
All that aside, we are looking at this from an historical perspective. Traditional metrics are always based on the period in the USA when the money was essentially stable. All that changed in the mid to late 60s and definitely in 1971, with Mr. Bonner's beloved "gold window" closing. So, for all of my investing life, the game essentially was changed. There are no signs, no indicators, so far as I can divine, that the game is going back to the old fundamentals. What if this is the new normal? Seen from an historical perspective, the whole thamn ding must SURELY be ready to blow, right? I thought for SURE in 1979-80, when the deficit crossed the trillion-dollar line that the end of the world were at hand, but you know what? We just kept adding zeroes. It was both simple and easy, and certainly expedient. As my then 25-year old son told me back in 2010 on a drive through the east-side hills of Cincinnati on the way to Pittsburgh (family business), "Face it, Dad: the good times are never coming back." Best always. PM
Cheer up brother Paul! Really nothing to worry about. Life and people have and will continue to be what they are! Nothing has changed. The “good times” are always what we create, as are the bad. Choices my friend. Old sick men like ourselves have lived through the best of times, and now in our twilight years, just need to be happy with ourselves and what we created. Our happiness is our children, families and friends. Our gift is what God has given us, and the ability to work and make this on our own. Such a beautiful gift. So sit back my friend, and enjoy all the coming good times, for those times are fleeting 🙏
I didn't mean to convey that I am unhappy or down in the dumps, although I am frustrated with current conditions, and how they came to be. Truth has a way of slipping in at unexpected times and places. I am, however, very practical by nature, always wanting to do the things that give me and others a chance to grow and progress. The lesson my son imparted that day was a blessing, his way of telling the old man to get a grip. We still laugh about it. He is an excellent and successful businessman today. Best always. PM
I get it brother! Reading your post these past six years told me that you are a very intelligent man and very successful. Intelligent because you left the stress of the market and invested in whatever made you happy. It’s always been about faith, family and friends. Nothing else matters. I was blessed with all three precious gifts, and God guided me to make the right decisions in finance, so it’s been a beautiful journey. Not always easy, and with much pain, but somehow we managed and get through it. Which makes the good times even better😊. Stay strong my friend, and focus on all the good, God and family, and only good will follow you the rest of your days 🙏
SIX YEARS? Has it been that long? Time flies. I'm surprised I haven't been thrown off this forum by now... Best always. PM
Thrown off? I believe you’re the glue that keeps us logical readers from leaving! You and Dan of course😊
Brother Steve - you might be the most consistently upbeat person I know.
Thanks --
As long as you have the funds to enjoy it
What if this is the new normal? E.B. Tucker has a great newsletter on Substack. He writes:
"The ideal way to manage an economic system is create a perpetual bull market, steadily increasing by small ticks each day. A lot like walking up deep, small, low-grade stairs for a year. Then occasionally falling down an elevator shaft before starting over close to but still above the prior bottom.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told us this plan in November 2010. He printed it in the editorial section of a major newspaper.
'[…] higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
Ben Bernanke – Washington Post November 3, 2010
The key to Chairman Bernanke’s theory was emotional management. People behave well when they feel rich. Never mind if the wealth is merely smoke and mirrors… it’s about how they behave."
Thanks for sending this along. To me, it's all smoke and mirrors, and the government is the ultimate beneficiary. Best always. PM
P.S. Is there at least a mattress or something at the bottom of the elevator shafts? PM
The economy feels like an experiment I did in Pharmacy school. Unfortunately it involved a frog. If you put a frog in boiling water it will die. BUT if you have a frog in warm water and slowly increase the temperature it will survive much longer. Kinda like our economy; a slow death.
What'd you have for lunch?
;)
I'll think about you the next time I indulge in a dietary sin, such as an Eckrich Jalapeno-cheddar smoked sausage (with sauerkraut and yellow mustard on whole wheat bread). I'm always careful to warm the tube steak gradually... Best always. PM
2010? Isn't that when Michael Pento published "The Coming Bond Market Collapse"? I like and follow Pento, but we're still waiting... Best always. PM
Good times, old times: all we have is present time. That great giver of life philosophy, Christ, said, “Each day has trouble enough of its own.”
We want to be happy. To be happy we need things; to have, we must do, gain wisdom, act with intelligent aclarity.
If you live with disquiet, you must change, if you lack something you must seek until you find it.
The ways of men are always fickle, but the uttering of men, steeped in God, are treasures.
The challenge to know the difference between good and rot.
Discernment is one of the fruits of the Spirit.
So, divorced from God, we flounder.
Brother Xave, Always a blessing to see you in my reply box! Happy is the day I made your acquaintance via this forum. You are, indeed, our resident mystic. Best always. PM
I don't know who said it originally, but I heard a stand-up comedian, Brother Dave Gardner (1926-1983), state it in performance, and perhaps it is original with him, but, regardless, it is succinct in its correctness: "Success is getting what you want; happiness is wanting what you get." (And Flip Wilson: "What you see is what you get!") The Lord has been very good to me, no doubt. PM
I always liked Flip Wilson.
'The devil made me do it" - that Flip Wilson? Yeah, he was funny
Geraldine too.
Brother Paul, I give one observation. In my house there are four people. We have three cars. Thankfully, at last, my grandson drives himself to school, my daughter to work.
My difficulty is parking.
You must have a wonderful spread to fit those seven cars. And, most importantly, a wonderful family.
I've got 4 acres out in the country. I've had as many as 10 cars (now down to 5) out on the driveway, which is as big as some suburban streets. Down to 5 now. When I moved here in 1990, there was NO ZONING at all. My kind of arrangement. Best always. PM
Hello Paul. Here in West Virginia, we bought unrestricted acres. I could build a shopping center, apartment complex, or cemetery on my property. I truly enjoy the government not always telling me what to do. Freedom.🇱🇷🇱🇷
Too bad. But I agree with your son.
Don't cry for me, Argentina, or anybody else. It was a needed reality-check. We still laugh about it to this day, especially when he comes to me for business advice/encouragement. Best always. PM
Paul, I am curious….can you tell me what investment vehicles have you been investing in since 1999?
Cash (various instruments) and metals (not all gold and silver) exclusively. That's it. Though now retired, I was self-employed since 1990 in sales and marketing, both as a manufacturer representative and a consultant. I started in stocks in 1966 while still in my teens at the urging of my Dad, an inveterate trader. Back then, we were focused on returns, not growth. I remember when the Dow was under 1000 but had real manufacturing companies as its component. The government taught me well how to hate traditional investing. They always took it all, the federal government through income and capital gains taxes, and the state government through intangibles/ad valorem taxes. What a rip-off. Best always. PM
Paul my father always said we get the crumbs that fall off the table of wall street.
An important difference between businesses traded in the stock markets and those that are privately held is the amount of emotional investment and capital that is used to push them ever higher.
Sometimes, having access to capital can be a curse as I think many at the top of the tree are about to discover.
Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe kinda proved that....
I recognize that you are not and have no desire to be a "Crypto Bro" Bill, but I note you are at the very lease inculcated to some degree by your use of the Crypto Term HODL.
Always enjoy your thoughts and glad to hear that in your French Wedding conversation, you are close to the well known Bill Bonner.
All the best, Nigel Adams
Maybe he just can't type well anymore???
I noticed that too! He can’t stand crypto and yet he’s adopting its
terminology. HODL 😂
Finally. I was the guy burned in the 80s on gold et al. I also had cds at 16%, on loaned money that I had earlier gotten at three percent .
I wholeheartedly are there with your position at this point. Time to pay cases for property. Hard assets.
I couldn't agree more with you Bill.
Tired and afraid of Ai capex spending?
Is there any doubt the U.S. is in an REE war with China?
Is there any doubt the U.S. must process REE;s domestically?
Is there any doubt REE's will increase in price?
MP and NB have no doubts!
Ramco Res sym. METC