Sometime in the future, the stockholders’ good luck is likely to vanish. Stocks have real value. That real worth — the present value of future earnings — must ultimately be expressed in prices.
Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict. Everyone seems to understand there are cycles and no one seems to have a clue of the timing. "Timing" that old bugaboo. When to get in, When to get out! Those of the younger generation can be more cavalier than us ol' folks. There is a season for everything and today it may be time to "play it safe" especially those of us in the Boomer Generation. Little time left to recover from the foolishness we had in youth. It isn't a stable western financial world anymore.....as the World continues to break apart into a multi-polar world, things are going to be vastly different. The American Hegemony combining our military and reserve currency is not the world force it was in our youth. Far from it. Our military isn't all powerful and technology in some arenas find us far behind. The US$ - while not going away any time soon (why - you ask - because there is just too much of it floating all around the world) but it has lost its dominance. Trust in the good ol' USofA is a horse of a different color - frankly and unfortunately, gone like the wind. From this ol' man's perspective, it is absolutely time to be safe so I am not sorry just around the corner. My thoughts - are my opinion and everyone has an opinion including ol' Billy Boy!
Amazin' Patrick. Because you - apparently - disagree that makes me what? Seriously, that gets your panties in an uproar. What a hoot! And, some wonder why America is circling the drain.......
Well, it is Friday and this ol' man seems a little sensitive today. Hmmmm.......thank you - once again you have given me pause to ponder. Here in LA (Lower Alabama - that is) it is First Friday. My apology....need to dial back my sensitivity meter.
I don’t normally agree with you on politics. But I think you are on the money economically. I’m an old fart as you are and it is a difficult decision on what to do. The best thing to do in my opinion is to diversify. A little in good dividend stocks, some gold,and Silver, some crypto and some cash. We will soon find out where it all falls.
Full disclosure: I have no stake in stocks,have not had a stake since 1999, and I don't want one now or ever. I think the stock market is a rigged game, and with stocks, you are working for the government, which can't wait to extract its 15%-28% pound of flesh. Ask yourself: who truly benefits from outrageous stock appreciation?
All that aside, we are looking at this from an historical perspective. Traditional metrics are always based on the period in the USA when the money was essentially stable. All that changed in the mid to late 60s and definitely in 1971, with Mr. Bonner's beloved "gold window" closing. So, for all of my investing life, the game essentially was changed. There are no signs, no indicators, so far as I can divine, that the game is going back to the old fundamentals. What if this is the new normal? Seen from an historical perspective, the whole thamn ding must SURELY be ready to blow, right? I thought for SURE in 1979-80, when the deficit crossed the trillion-dollar line that the end of the world were at hand, but you know what? We just kept adding zeroes. It was both simple and easy, and certainly expedient. As my then 25-year old son told me back in 2010 on a drive through the east-side hills of Cincinnati on the way to Pittsburgh (family business), "Face it, Dad: the good times are never coming back." Best always. PM
What if this is the new normal? E.B. Tucker has a great newsletter on Substack. He writes:
"The ideal way to manage an economic system is create a perpetual bull market, steadily increasing by small ticks each day. A lot like walking up deep, small, low-grade stairs for a year. Then occasionally falling down an elevator shaft before starting over close to but still above the prior bottom.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told us this plan in November 2010. He printed it in the editorial section of a major newspaper.
'[…] higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
Ben Bernanke – Washington Post November 3, 2010
The key to Chairman Bernanke’s theory was emotional management. People behave well when they feel rich. Never mind if the wealth is merely smoke and mirrors… it’s about how they behave."
The economy feels like an experiment I did in Pharmacy school. Unfortunately it involved a frog. If you put a frog in boiling water it will die. BUT if you have a frog in warm water and slowly increase the temperature it will survive much longer. Kinda like our economy; a slow death.
Cheer up brother Paul! Really nothing to worry about. Life and people have and will continue to be what they are! Nothing has changed. The “good times” are always what we create, as are the bad. Choices my friend. Old sick men like ourselves have lived through the best of times, and now in our twilight years, just need to be happy with ourselves and what we created. Our happiness is our children, families and friends. Our gift is what God has given us, and the ability to work and make this on our own. Such a beautiful gift. So sit back my friend, and enjoy all the coming good times, for those times are fleeting 🙏
I recognize that you are not and have no desire to be a "Crypto Bro" Bill, but I note you are at the very lease inculcated to some degree by your use of the Crypto Term HODL.
Always enjoy your thoughts and glad to hear that in your French Wedding conversation, you are close to the well known Bill Bonner.
Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict. Everyone seems to understand there are cycles and no one seems to have a clue of the timing. "Timing" that old bugaboo. When to get in, When to get out! Those of the younger generation can be more cavalier than us ol' folks. There is a season for everything and today it may be time to "play it safe" especially those of us in the Boomer Generation. Little time left to recover from the foolishness we had in youth. It isn't a stable western financial world anymore.....as the World continues to break apart into a multi-polar world, things are going to be vastly different. The American Hegemony combining our military and reserve currency is not the world force it was in our youth. Far from it. Our military isn't all powerful and technology in some arenas find us far behind. The US$ - while not going away any time soon (why - you ask - because there is just too much of it floating all around the world) but it has lost its dominance. Trust in the good ol' USofA is a horse of a different color - frankly and unfortunately, gone like the wind. From this ol' man's perspective, it is absolutely time to be safe so I am not sorry just around the corner. My thoughts - are my opinion and everyone has an opinion including ol' Billy Boy!
An opinion, And an asshole!
Amazin' Patrick. Because you - apparently - disagree that makes me what? Seriously, that gets your panties in an uproar. What a hoot! And, some wonder why America is circling the drain.......
Naw ! I liked Ur comment as always. I was just stating an old saying, I thought you would appreciate.
Well, it is Friday and this ol' man seems a little sensitive today. Hmmmm.......thank you - once again you have given me pause to ponder. Here in LA (Lower Alabama - that is) it is First Friday. My apology....need to dial back my sensitivity meter.
Good to see, you are a good old boy from the south, my favorite people.
I don’t normally agree with you on politics. But I think you are on the money economically. I’m an old fart as you are and it is a difficult decision on what to do. The best thing to do in my opinion is to diversify. A little in good dividend stocks, some gold,and Silver, some crypto and some cash. We will soon find out where it all falls.
i am absolutely amazed at your level of intelligence, where did you come up with these brilliant comments:
"Explaining today's situation. As always with the future, it is hard to predict."
Such a classic! The brilliance is absolutely amazing! wow -
Full disclosure: I have no stake in stocks,have not had a stake since 1999, and I don't want one now or ever. I think the stock market is a rigged game, and with stocks, you are working for the government, which can't wait to extract its 15%-28% pound of flesh. Ask yourself: who truly benefits from outrageous stock appreciation?
All that aside, we are looking at this from an historical perspective. Traditional metrics are always based on the period in the USA when the money was essentially stable. All that changed in the mid to late 60s and definitely in 1971, with Mr. Bonner's beloved "gold window" closing. So, for all of my investing life, the game essentially was changed. There are no signs, no indicators, so far as I can divine, that the game is going back to the old fundamentals. What if this is the new normal? Seen from an historical perspective, the whole thamn ding must SURELY be ready to blow, right? I thought for SURE in 1979-80, when the deficit crossed the trillion-dollar line that the end of the world were at hand, but you know what? We just kept adding zeroes. It was both simple and easy, and certainly expedient. As my then 25-year old son told me back in 2010 on a drive through the east-side hills of Cincinnati on the way to Pittsburgh (family business), "Face it, Dad: the good times are never coming back." Best always. PM
What if this is the new normal? E.B. Tucker has a great newsletter on Substack. He writes:
"The ideal way to manage an economic system is create a perpetual bull market, steadily increasing by small ticks each day. A lot like walking up deep, small, low-grade stairs for a year. Then occasionally falling down an elevator shaft before starting over close to but still above the prior bottom.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told us this plan in November 2010. He printed it in the editorial section of a major newspaper.
'[…] higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.'
Ben Bernanke – Washington Post November 3, 2010
The key to Chairman Bernanke’s theory was emotional management. People behave well when they feel rich. Never mind if the wealth is merely smoke and mirrors… it’s about how they behave."
Thanks for sending this along. To me, it's all smoke and mirrors, and the government is the ultimate beneficiary. Best always. PM
P.S. Is there at least a mattress or something at the bottom of the elevator shafts? PM
The economy feels like an experiment I did in Pharmacy school. Unfortunately it involved a frog. If you put a frog in boiling water it will die. BUT if you have a frog in warm water and slowly increase the temperature it will survive much longer. Kinda like our economy; a slow death.
Cheer up brother Paul! Really nothing to worry about. Life and people have and will continue to be what they are! Nothing has changed. The “good times” are always what we create, as are the bad. Choices my friend. Old sick men like ourselves have lived through the best of times, and now in our twilight years, just need to be happy with ourselves and what we created. Our happiness is our children, families and friends. Our gift is what God has given us, and the ability to work and make this on our own. Such a beautiful gift. So sit back my friend, and enjoy all the coming good times, for those times are fleeting 🙏
As long as you have the funds to enjoy it
Too bad. But I agree with your son.
Good times, old times: all we have is present time. That great giver of life philosophy, Christ, said, “Each day has trouble enough of its own.”
We want to be happy. To be happy we need things; to have, we must do, gain wisdom, act with intelligent aclarity.
If you live with disquiet, you must change, if you lack something you must seek until you find it.
The ways of men are always fickle, but the uttering of men, steeped in God, are treasures.
The challenge to know the difference between good and rot.
Discernment is one of the fruits of the Spirit.
So, divorced from God, we flounder.
Tired and afraid of Ai capex spending?
Is there any doubt the U.S. is in an REE war with China?
Is there any doubt the U.S. must process REE;s domestically?
Is there any doubt REE's will increase in price?
MP and NB have no doubts!
I recognize that you are not and have no desire to be a "Crypto Bro" Bill, but I note you are at the very lease inculcated to some degree by your use of the Crypto Term HODL.
Always enjoy your thoughts and glad to hear that in your French Wedding conversation, you are close to the well known Bill Bonner.
All the best, Nigel Adams
I couldn't agree more with you Bill.