Stock prices are ‘mean reverting,’ which is to say that they always go back to a ‘normal’ range. And when they are extremely overvalued as they are today, they have a lot of ground to cover (losses!).
Seems people think tomorrow is going to be like yesterday. Talking like it is the ol' America and the hegemony is strengthening. Wouldn't it be prudent to consider the world is in transition to a multi-polar world, fiat currencies are waning, and worldwide America is no longer trusted and its military is floundering. Gold holdings by central banks and sovereign funds is growing - even here in the good ol' USofA although they will never come clean and actually say how much gold the U.S. has. Frankly, think it is a lot less than the 1954 numbers portend. The US$ is tanking and the upcoming Treasury auctions may find the buyer of last resort is the good ol' Fed - and, if any of you are missing the point - that means us taxpayers. The government makes no money - it takes taxes mostly from us peons and pass it on to their handlers. For us peons, government and the western financial system is a scam. And will be until the credit bubble explodes/implodes - take your pick. And it is going to be cruel to some of the want-a-bes but are not yet and mostly to us peons. Unemployment is up - almost 1,100,000 job losses through October of this year. Yep - buy the dips........but give a thought or two to the rising multi-polar world order. Our Peace president currently is preparing/threatening (with Trump hard to tell the difference) against - let's see - Iran, Ukraine (kind of backed out of that one), Nigeria, China, Venezuela, maybe Colombia, and who knows maybe even Portland, Oregon since it seems our Dictator-in-Chief will kill Americans too. Yep - let's focus on the stock market............Better than thinking about the real world. As always, one muttering ol' man.
One must consider more than history in the U.S., its stock market, and the western financial system before deciding on how to prepare/invest for the future. Blindly thinking relying on the past is the way forward isn't my view. The world has become multi-polar and Washington along with the western financial system are losing power at a rapid rate. People seem to want to bury their head on that. So, it appears many, if not most, in the western financial system have decided to have another doobee! Did you?
Excellent read, from my perch the indicators are get out, yet here we are.
Some in Max safety mode, some gambling, now a decent speculative play on the down side (long term puts) - Buffets out, Tom/Dan out, yet in a round up of decent newsletters we have Rickard's in (focused on Gold /silver plays mostly) , Porter in (yet cracks appearing), Shah in but limited.
I will say I did significantly well with Tom’s shipping plays and I’m making better than decent returns with Jim R.’s calls and focus on gold and gold miners. Also doing well with Porter/Erez on Biotechs - but these (Biotechs) right now are cheap enough to speculate. Finally, Friedsens distressed Bonds are intriguing but I lack the intestinal fortitude to jump in.
Bottom line, If you are going to play it is imperative to watch the market, news, cycles etc. with an eagles eye and be well read.
I like to use these newsletter guys as sources of potential ideas then put those recommendations through several step analysis, one of which is Weiss ratings, when putting these recommendations through Weiss ratings, most are dogs with ratings D thru E suggesting we are scrapping the bottom looking for that whale to land a big win. (and get more newsletter subscribers :-))
I AM STILL IN SHIPPING. A CLEAR LEADING INDICATOR. If you haven't seen it, check out the YouTube video that K mart posted about.I shipped my drawers and shipped my pants. Very funny. A great.
Paraphrase, for my comment.Things are very slow very slow going into peak season.
Have you considered the the demand side of the equation for US stocks? Since 1990, the investments in the US stock market by foreign investors have gone from about 555,000,000,000 to about 15,921,000,000,000. That is 555 billion to about 15.921 trillion.
The US stock market has become the most popular investing market in the world because it is the most liquid and it has given some of the best returns. If the demand is so much higher than back when traditional measures of value were created, wouldn't you think its possible that this will change what a share of stock of a profitable company would be?
To make an absurd comparison, what is the Shiller PE of bitcoin? Of course it is zero so why has it gone up so much in value? And whatever reason you come up with for its popularity, why couldn't that reason be applied to stocks? The only fact we know for sure on value of anything, is what somebody is willing to pay you for it right now.
Residential real estate is going through the same supply and demand blitz with dwindling supply and increasing demand. Corporations have been buying up single family homes and repackaging the mortgages into sellable bonds. It's caused a significant pop in prices. And we are also getting a lot of overseas investment in properties.
Real estate allows many folks to obtain a large highly leveraged monetary investment, security in assuming the price will likely appreciate and daily use of that leveraged money in the form of shelter...
I don't believe the stock market will ever crash until real estate crashes. It was the best of times and the worst of times, and I think Warren is waiting for the crash as am I.
Trump knows, why else would he push for 50 year mortgages? Signing a 50 year note is akin to signing on to a 7 year car payment. The way things are built today both of these liabilities will be in the junk yard before the last payment.
All I know for sure; Make it easy to buy and people will buy. When the SHTF the same people will walk from both their car and house.Once again I'll be the good guy creating a market for homeowners to escape the American Dream.
It's all a matter of how much debt will be written off, and who is left holding the bag.
Yes payoff commercial debt if it includes a personal guarantee. Buy silver, gold and depending where you live buy lead and food.
Hmmm…saw this on Bloomberg: “3 days ago. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. acquired 17.9 million shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc. during the third quarter, …” And Bessent said, 2026 is going to be great not just for Wall Street, but for Main Street.
BRK-A closed 12/30/2024 at $681,000/share and is now trading at $762,000/share for a
2025 gain (so far) 11.9%.
But Warren keeps reminding us that he doesn't see anything to invest in.
Too bad he didn't invest each $681,000/share into 1/1/2025 $2624/oz of gold giving him 259.5 oz of gold for each share.
Compared to converting his present $762,000/share into $4080/oz of gold = only 186.7 oz of gold, for a loss return in oz of gold per share of - 72.8 oz. In real money that is a loss of 28%.
I convert my US Dollar portfolio into ounces of gold each week. My return is not as high as Wall Streets, but it keeps me sane.
Seems people think tomorrow is going to be like yesterday. Talking like it is the ol' America and the hegemony is strengthening. Wouldn't it be prudent to consider the world is in transition to a multi-polar world, fiat currencies are waning, and worldwide America is no longer trusted and its military is floundering. Gold holdings by central banks and sovereign funds is growing - even here in the good ol' USofA although they will never come clean and actually say how much gold the U.S. has. Frankly, think it is a lot less than the 1954 numbers portend. The US$ is tanking and the upcoming Treasury auctions may find the buyer of last resort is the good ol' Fed - and, if any of you are missing the point - that means us taxpayers. The government makes no money - it takes taxes mostly from us peons and pass it on to their handlers. For us peons, government and the western financial system is a scam. And will be until the credit bubble explodes/implodes - take your pick. And it is going to be cruel to some of the want-a-bes but are not yet and mostly to us peons. Unemployment is up - almost 1,100,000 job losses through October of this year. Yep - buy the dips........but give a thought or two to the rising multi-polar world order. Our Peace president currently is preparing/threatening (with Trump hard to tell the difference) against - let's see - Iran, Ukraine (kind of backed out of that one), Nigeria, China, Venezuela, maybe Colombia, and who knows maybe even Portland, Oregon since it seems our Dictator-in-Chief will kill Americans too. Yep - let's focus on the stock market............Better than thinking about the real world. As always, one muttering ol' man.
Excellent, so what's your recommendation?Buy gold, payoff commercial mortgages, move to portland? Smoke another doobee?
One must consider more than history in the U.S., its stock market, and the western financial system before deciding on how to prepare/invest for the future. Blindly thinking relying on the past is the way forward isn't my view. The world has become multi-polar and Washington along with the western financial system are losing power at a rapid rate. People seem to want to bury their head on that. So, it appears many, if not most, in the western financial system have decided to have another doobee! Did you?
Excellent read, from my perch the indicators are get out, yet here we are.
Some in Max safety mode, some gambling, now a decent speculative play on the down side (long term puts) - Buffets out, Tom/Dan out, yet in a round up of decent newsletters we have Rickard's in (focused on Gold /silver plays mostly) , Porter in (yet cracks appearing), Shah in but limited.
I will say I did significantly well with Tom’s shipping plays and I’m making better than decent returns with Jim R.’s calls and focus on gold and gold miners. Also doing well with Porter/Erez on Biotechs - but these (Biotechs) right now are cheap enough to speculate. Finally, Friedsens distressed Bonds are intriguing but I lack the intestinal fortitude to jump in.
Bottom line, If you are going to play it is imperative to watch the market, news, cycles etc. with an eagles eye and be well read.
I like to use these newsletter guys as sources of potential ideas then put those recommendations through several step analysis, one of which is Weiss ratings, when putting these recommendations through Weiss ratings, most are dogs with ratings D thru E suggesting we are scrapping the bottom looking for that whale to land a big win. (and get more newsletter subscribers :-))
I AM STILL IN SHIPPING. A CLEAR LEADING INDICATOR. If you haven't seen it, check out the YouTube video that K mart posted about.I shipped my drawers and shipped my pants. Very funny. A great.
Paraphrase, for my comment.Things are very slow very slow going into peak season.
Have you considered the the demand side of the equation for US stocks? Since 1990, the investments in the US stock market by foreign investors have gone from about 555,000,000,000 to about 15,921,000,000,000. That is 555 billion to about 15.921 trillion.
The US stock market has become the most popular investing market in the world because it is the most liquid and it has given some of the best returns. If the demand is so much higher than back when traditional measures of value were created, wouldn't you think its possible that this will change what a share of stock of a profitable company would be?
To make an absurd comparison, what is the Shiller PE of bitcoin? Of course it is zero so why has it gone up so much in value? And whatever reason you come up with for its popularity, why couldn't that reason be applied to stocks? The only fact we know for sure on value of anything, is what somebody is willing to pay you for it right now.
... Schwab reported one million new subscribers every quarter for the previous 4 quarters... Robinhood stock at record levels.
-
First time home buyers average 40 years of age?
50 year loans ?
Assumable loans?
Portable loans ?
OPENdoor is offering loans in 48 hours...
-
Owning a first-time home is beyond most families' budgets.
Where else is Gen XYZ going to put their money besides the market, BTC or gold?
Robinhood has dropped quite a bit from the high water mark.
Residential real estate is going through the same supply and demand blitz with dwindling supply and increasing demand. Corporations have been buying up single family homes and repackaging the mortgages into sellable bonds. It's caused a significant pop in prices. And we are also getting a lot of overseas investment in properties.
Real estate allows many folks to obtain a large highly leveraged monetary investment, security in assuming the price will likely appreciate and daily use of that leveraged money in the form of shelter...
Not many investments offer all 3.
HOOD ...still over 190% YTD... most all stocks took a hit in November.
Bitcoin isn’t a stock or business. It’s a form of money.
So why can't I buy groceries with it or buy clothes with it? If the grid goes down, how do you use it as a currency?
You can buy a Tesla with it, unless the grid goes down.
Congratulations, Bill, on writing a column that does not predict armageddon because of American politicians. This is the Bill Bonner of old!
I don't believe the stock market will ever crash until real estate crashes. It was the best of times and the worst of times, and I think Warren is waiting for the crash as am I.
Trump knows, why else would he push for 50 year mortgages? Signing a 50 year note is akin to signing on to a 7 year car payment. The way things are built today both of these liabilities will be in the junk yard before the last payment.
All I know for sure; Make it easy to buy and people will buy. When the SHTF the same people will walk from both their car and house.Once again I'll be the good guy creating a market for homeowners to escape the American Dream.
It's all a matter of how much debt will be written off, and who is left holding the bag.
Yes payoff commercial debt if it includes a personal guarantee. Buy silver, gold and depending where you live buy lead and food.
Hmmm…saw this on Bloomberg: “3 days ago. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. acquired 17.9 million shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc. during the third quarter, …” And Bessent said, 2026 is going to be great not just for Wall Street, but for Main Street.
And yet, the BPR doom-and-gloom rages on…
BRK-A closed 12/30/2024 at $681,000/share and is now trading at $762,000/share for a
2025 gain (so far) 11.9%.
But Warren keeps reminding us that he doesn't see anything to invest in.
Too bad he didn't invest each $681,000/share into 1/1/2025 $2624/oz of gold giving him 259.5 oz of gold for each share.
Compared to converting his present $762,000/share into $4080/oz of gold = only 186.7 oz of gold, for a loss return in oz of gold per share of - 72.8 oz. In real money that is a loss of 28%.
I convert my US Dollar portfolio into ounces of gold each week. My return is not as high as Wall Streets, but it keeps me sane.
Do not forget that W. B. only buys when things are "bargains".
BRK is buying Alphabet -Google. Hmmmmm.
Dah! No decision? Back where we started! Ali