Toll Roads Lead to Home (and inflation)
Monday, April 13th, 2026
Bill Bonner, from Baltimore, Maryland
Last week ended much as it began...with curiosities, absurdities and stupidities.
Separating one from the other was a challenge. One of the most puzzling was this. MSNBC:
The Jeffrey Epstein scandal had largely faded from public view in recent weeks, especially as attention turned to the war with Iran, but it made an unexpected comeback on Thursday afternoon in a strange fashion.
From the White House, first lady Melania Trump delivered surprise remarks, in which she denied having any meaningful ties to convicted sex offenders Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell and condemned reporting to the contrary. The trouble was, no one had any idea what she was talking about: She appeared to be responding to allegations that the public hadn’t heard.
Why on earth would the White House want to bring the Epstein Affair back into the public eye? It had practically disappeared in the fog of the Iran War. But it wasn’t the ‘White House;’ it was the wife of POTUS, who carefully used the words “I” and “my” to disclaim any knowledge or culpability with Epstein. The ‘I’ and ‘my’ didn’t include her husband.
What was the point? Is she afraid Mr. Trump is going down? Is she getting in a lifeboat?
We don’t know.
Another curiosity, ArtVoice:
Kristi Noem’s Husband Bryon Was Living A Secret Life Online As Jason Jackson And The Details Keep Getting Worse
Bryon was enjoying the ‘bimbofication’ subculture. Similar claims have been made about former FBI director J. Edgar Hoover and former Luftwaffe head, Hermann Goring. Both probably untrue.
In Noem’s case, it is probably true...and embarrassing. But no threat to the republic.
But at least the confusion over the ceasefire was clarified somewhat over the weekend. Yes...there was a ‘ceasefire,’ sort of. But no, there was no settlement. By Sunday, the ‘negotiators’ were on their way home, empty handed, prompting POTUS to go back on the attack.
What’s the solution to Iran’s blockade? A US blockade! If only Iran-approved traffic can get through the strait, said he, then no one will get through. CBS:
Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz and intercept ships that paid tolls to Iran
Then, wouldn’t you know it, what we all saw coming...came! With so few tankers getting through, naturally the price of oil has gone up. Business Insider:
Inflation rose in March to the highest rate in 2 years as the Iran war lifted energy prices
The consumer price index increased 3.3% in March from a year ago, up from the 2.4% increase in January and February, and just shy of the 3.4% forecast. Economists expected inflation to rise due to higher energy prices.
“The market was braced for a hot print, so today’s inline number is a slight relief,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “However, it may be the best headline inflation number we see for a while as it may only partially capture the full force of the Iran conflict, which sent US crude and US gas up 70% at peak.”
But while most fingers point at the energy markets, at least one finger led to a different inflation source. Benzinga:
A new Federal Reserve study reveals that sweeping U.S. tariffs implemented in 2025 by President Donald Trump are entirely responsible for the recent surge in inflation, hitting consumers with a direct, “dollar-for-dollar” price increase.
...researchers estimate that tariffs implemented through November 2025 raised core goods personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices by a staggering 3.1% through February 2026.
And clearly in the stupidity category is this, from Newsweek:
Representative Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican endorsed by President Trump, accused oil companies and Washington lawmakers of driving up gas prices through “just greed” in a video posted on X late Tuesday, as Americans continue to feel the economic effects of the Iran war.
If it were ‘just’ greed, what a coincidence that it strikes just as Iran squeezes the biggest oil valve in the world!
Regards,
Bill Bonner
BPR Valuation Dashboard
BPR is experimenting with some new dashboards that focus on market data, stock screens, and key ratios. Above, some of the traditional valuation metrics we track and report on regularly: the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio, the market-cap-to-GDP ratio, the Dow/Gold ratio and more. Leave a comment for ratios or stock screens you’d be interested in regular reporting on.
I like this BPR Valuation Dashboard as I frequently look at most of them individually, so having a "dashboard" like this that shows everything at once is helpful
GDP might once have been useful but those days ended long ago. Perceptive analysts would do well to ignore that Frankenstein calculation.