If all of Bill's subscribers moved to Argentina and brought all their belongings and crafts and capabilities, not to mention their wealth, we could re-make the economy. Build new factories, create all kinds of jobs, start new banks, new types of transportation, ie., hydrogen powered vehicles, steam powered vehicles, nuclear powered vehicles and the sky is the limit. We could revolutionize the whole blooming country. We would be so powerful that we could take over the government and get them back on track to sensible capitalism. People would pay big money to go to a new country and feel the sense of freedom again. But wait, we already tried that and screwed it up. No one recognizes what our founders began. It is buried in piles of rules, corruption and waste. Someone should write a book about that. But someone did write a book about how to live your life to perfection and we can't seem to adjust to a book like the Bible because of all the blankety blank rules. My new year dream. Just sayin'
A peasant in Borneo "looking at dirty pictures of white women in Dusseldorf". That is hilarious. Nice one. Seriously though, inflation in my opinion doesn't have to come down anytime soon. Airports are still crowded, there are still long lines at the grocery store, people are still buying new cars, Mexican gardeners are still making a lot of noise mowing people's yards and the Amazon trucks are still zipping around town dropping off gadgets. Form what I see there is a lot of capacity in the system to absorb more pain. When the pain gets too much people just start eating spam and make the soap last a little longer.
No, not about the German soft porn (hilarious), but about also seeing basically ZERO economic "pain" here in SFL. Crowds of locals and tourists EVERYWHERE, and ALL spending money.
What I have noticed is a HUGE uptick in job applicants at the company where I am a senior field manager. Yes, we do actual hands-on work, outside, in the heat/rain and wearing PPE. Applicants in numbers that are a bit unusual for the nature of the work, the season and our labor market.
Anecdotal? Sure is. But maybe the people who have been cruising along since convid are the first ones to be feeling the need to start generating a paycheck for themselves. Or maybe it's a fraction of the hundreds of thousands of right-minded transplants who escaped from their blue hellholes and came here last year(s.) I dunno...
I'm as confused about the entire labor situation as I've been about any financial subject I've pondered...Ok, we know folks got lots of "stimy" money...We know savings soared, but that it is now dropping like the proverbial rock...I see Help Wanted signs all over...I hear businesses are having trouble finding people to work...I hear of thousands of layoffs...but I also see tons of new cars, boats, ATV's and people generally out spending...Consumer debt levels are at record highs...
How do we square all this?
Disabilities have soared since the definitions were adjusted around 2008. I know there are also a lot of disabilities from Covid and the vaccines. I get the unemployment numbers are bogus as they count a person working 2 jobs as 2 separate workers. I know there's a lot of "quiet quitting" going on. I know many folks decided to retire during Covid.
I can't tell if the employment stats are so ginned up that they are throwing things off, or I'm missing something. It seems like there's a whole bunch of people not working, but some how making money to pay the bills...Perhaps as Starboard mentions, the non-working are finally taking off the jammies or surf shorts and are starting to look for work, I don't know.
BTW. I think they ate the Pheasant. How could you possibly kill such a beautiful bird and not eat it? Save the feathers Bill, they make good fly fishing flies among other things.
I think the "Labor Participation Rate" that Bill often references answers at least some of your questions. It's at a 40 year low right now which tells us that there are a ton of able bodied, working age people that aren't working.
You alluded to the interesting question: How do all those people house, feed and clothe themselves?
My bet is they chucked the birds into the trash and managed to survive eating everything else. There is nothing worse than rancid poultry or foul.
You have to count the massive influx from Dem controlled cites. Lots of folks relocating to FL I'd be one if not for the mosquitoes, gators, snakes, sharks and bacterial all wanting a pound of flesh. I figure 2 weeks every other year in FL lowers my odds of being eaten alive.
Those comments were partly tongue in cheek. I was actually vacationing with friends in Sanibel on the day of the hurricane. We left the island about 2 hours prior to the causeway washing out. As luck would have it we have a friend with a second home in Naples. We arrived a few hours ahead of the hurricane. We lost power but has luck would have the Sheriff lives on the other side of the cul-de-dac, and he has a generator. We had our morning coffee after all. The next day learning from the Sheriff the interstate might in fact flood we headed to Tampa.
I'm not so sure I'd be in the market for a house on costal Florida, best to rent or Air BnB. Miraculously the 1930's construction home in Sanibel received very little damage, while the 6 story condo built 100 yards ahead did not fair so well. There's something to be said about the older homes. The builders were much smarter building these as far back from the beach while keeping the roof line low slung mostly build with hip roofs. The Mucky Duck in Captiva seemed to far very well. I suppose after multiple hurricanes the owners were wise to update while leaving the basic bones intact.
I wil admit I don't recall giving blood to any mosqitos, and avoided the gators
Shhhhh! Let the world continue with the misconceptions about all the natural "dangers" down here - it helps keep out the riff raff!
Regarding Dennis' comments about construction - I have a small cottage in West Palm Beach just on the west side of the river. It was built in 1947 as Officer Housing for the now closed Palm Beach Naval Air Station. It is 100% constructed of wood from the Causarina equisetifolia tree, commonly known as Australian Pine, or down here, Dade Pine. These are the tall, fast-spreading coastal "Pine-like" trees with needles that "sing" in the wind and are found up and down the coast of the SE US. The species has been classified as Invasive for many years in this state, though their root system is superb at erosion control along the ocean or any other water bank. Government logic at work.
Anyway, back in the day what is now Miami-Dade County (south of Palm Beach & Broward Counties) was absolutely covered with these trees. So, Floridians being Floridians, they used the opportunity after WWII to not only clear Dade County for development but to also mill these trees and build long-lasting structures. I believe the wood is the second or third hardest on the face of the earth and numerous old timers have told me that they had to pre-drill a hole to drive a nail and count on several saw sharpening sessions when using the material in construction. Mold or mildew won't grow on it (even after inundation), termites can't/won't eat it and it never warps. A trip to the attic is a treat due to the beautiful red shades of the rafters and all the solidified sap on the underside of the roof. Spectacular.
When I decided to buy the place back in 2015, my family (who ALL had had careers in Florida Real Estate, I'm the black sheep in that regard - and a few others now that I think about it) advised against the purchase. I researched the property to the best of my ability and decided that I would take a nearly 70-year old house, made from Dade Pine and hammered together with Pittsburgh Steel nails by a bunch of guys who had just kicked Hitler's a** ANY DAY over a newer home made from White Pine and held together by Chinese "steel" nails applied with nail guns by people who likely weren't all that concerned with the quality of the finished project seeing how the job was just one of hundreds they would be building in a "planned community."
I've never regretted the decision.
It is obvious the house has held up extremely well through all the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that have washed by over the years, while the property is located 1.1 miles from the beach as the crow flies. I'm hoping for another 70+ years, as long as I can keep the thing from ever catching fire. That is the only unsurvivable threat to the place. But if it ever happened, POOF - up it would go, and quickly too...
One of our businesses contracts with cities to run their adult softball and baseball programs. We've been doing it for over 36 years now such that we've seen pretty much every aspect of the "business cycle" (some of them more than twice). It's a counter-intuitive business because it does better in a bad economy, even better in a really bad economy and the very best in a depression. (The best run was 2007-2012.)
I can tell you things are beginning to get bad because we've had the first two seasons (Fall 2022 and Winter 2023 which is just starting) where year over year sales increased since 2011. Like you, we're also seeing an increase in the number of people looking to make extra money in the evenings and on weekends by umpiring and score keeping the games. That isn't the case when times are good. My point: I think your observation is more than anecdotal because this pattern with our business has been accurate every time since 1986.
yes ......the peasant in borneo looking at dirty pictures of white women in dussenldorf , may learn how white women do it and get better at it himself ,thus enriching his partners experience and may be start reaping added benefits at home ,,,,,,, thus he improved his position at home with added knowledge instead of more cucambers .......??
"Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently made waves when he told employees in a Slack message that the company’s newest hires aren’t being productive enough, and he wanted help figuring out why. The tech giant’s employee productivity issue is not an isolated one."
My son in law is owner and operator of one of our family franchise businesses. He's able to point out new hires addicted to Tic Tok and those simply checking their phone during the day.
I suggested all phones be left in the employee lockers, only to be used during break times.
He chuckled and shot back:" Dad, they'd all quit the next day".
Good Morning, just a quick note of no importance. I especially enjoyed the interweaving of the To His Coy Mistress poem in today's missive. I was 16 when I read it (69 now) I would ,of course send it to potential mates as a romantic approach (art of seduction, sorta) and love this poem still to this day. Caused a smile amidst the uncertainty. Thank you so much, Gary Jones :)
Hmmmmm, seeing as you have an adequate length of study duration and assuming a large enough sample size - if you had to rate the overall "effectiveness" with the fairer sex to that snatch of prose , waddaya think? ;)
I hope Bill, Joel, Tom, or Dan will address China's reopening, at least by April, when the weather warms up there and Chinese younger than 60 build up some natural immunity and start working, driving, and traveling. You would think energy prices would rise from April through October, possibly adding to inflation not just in China but around the world. Could this be why Chairman Xi was in S.A. not long ago talking to the Saudi royals?
I understand that over a million older Chinese could die in 2023 from the reopening, which is very sad, but they aren't part of the workforce. I was struck by The Economist reporting that the authoritarian-run govt. and central bank didn't financially stimulate the economy in China during COVID lockdowns as much as the U.S. federal govt. and central bank (aka The Fed) did in the U.S. I realize there could be many reasons why this is so, such as differences in the two countries' economies and govt. structure. And maybe the Chinese people are better savers than Americans?
I'm sure Bonner Private Research will eventually provide their usual rigorous analysis of this matter.
Upon our visit to Ireland we travelled from Dublin to our family property in Galway (rented to the same tenant for 30 years) I had this strong desire not to return to the USA. I'm an introvert, and one who finds great satisfaction is resurrecting that which has no perceived value to its former condition. If I was single and not happily married, I'd be asking Bill if he had a spare daughter or relative or would he consider hiring on a handyman for room and board, I'd even consider residence in the Gypsy wagon?
I think it's pretty simple. Just keep it, use it, improve it, [whatever it may be] until you die or the kids take over. Like my classic cars, I don't care what happens to them when I'm dead. It's enough to know I did something useful with them [preservation, enjoyment, whatever] when I was alive [and harmed no one, at least who didn't harm me.]
All excellent questions and enquiring minds want to know.
Of course the answers are technically None of Our Business, BUT:
Bill, those of us out here in the great hinterland invest time, energy and emotion in your daily missives, hence we think of you and yours as "family."
So what gives? I think those of us with a decent memory can connect the dots on your avoiding Argentina due to risking arrest based solely on corruption and through no fault of your own, but please, at least let us know how Christmas dinner turned out!!
If all of Bill's subscribers moved to Argentina and brought all their belongings and crafts and capabilities, not to mention their wealth, we could re-make the economy. Build new factories, create all kinds of jobs, start new banks, new types of transportation, ie., hydrogen powered vehicles, steam powered vehicles, nuclear powered vehicles and the sky is the limit. We could revolutionize the whole blooming country. We would be so powerful that we could take over the government and get them back on track to sensible capitalism. People would pay big money to go to a new country and feel the sense of freedom again. But wait, we already tried that and screwed it up. No one recognizes what our founders began. It is buried in piles of rules, corruption and waste. Someone should write a book about that. But someone did write a book about how to live your life to perfection and we can't seem to adjust to a book like the Bible because of all the blankety blank rules. My new year dream. Just sayin'
Don Harrell
A peasant in Borneo "looking at dirty pictures of white women in Dusseldorf". That is hilarious. Nice one. Seriously though, inflation in my opinion doesn't have to come down anytime soon. Airports are still crowded, there are still long lines at the grocery store, people are still buying new cars, Mexican gardeners are still making a lot of noise mowing people's yards and the Amazon trucks are still zipping around town dropping off gadgets. Form what I see there is a lot of capacity in the system to absorb more pain. When the pain gets too much people just start eating spam and make the soap last a little longer.
Hi Achilles -
Been thinking the same thing.
No, not about the German soft porn (hilarious), but about also seeing basically ZERO economic "pain" here in SFL. Crowds of locals and tourists EVERYWHERE, and ALL spending money.
What I have noticed is a HUGE uptick in job applicants at the company where I am a senior field manager. Yes, we do actual hands-on work, outside, in the heat/rain and wearing PPE. Applicants in numbers that are a bit unusual for the nature of the work, the season and our labor market.
Anecdotal? Sure is. But maybe the people who have been cruising along since convid are the first ones to be feeling the need to start generating a paycheck for themselves. Or maybe it's a fraction of the hundreds of thousands of right-minded transplants who escaped from their blue hellholes and came here last year(s.) I dunno...
Achilles & Starboard--
I'm as confused about the entire labor situation as I've been about any financial subject I've pondered...Ok, we know folks got lots of "stimy" money...We know savings soared, but that it is now dropping like the proverbial rock...I see Help Wanted signs all over...I hear businesses are having trouble finding people to work...I hear of thousands of layoffs...but I also see tons of new cars, boats, ATV's and people generally out spending...Consumer debt levels are at record highs...
How do we square all this?
Disabilities have soared since the definitions were adjusted around 2008. I know there are also a lot of disabilities from Covid and the vaccines. I get the unemployment numbers are bogus as they count a person working 2 jobs as 2 separate workers. I know there's a lot of "quiet quitting" going on. I know many folks decided to retire during Covid.
I can't tell if the employment stats are so ginned up that they are throwing things off, or I'm missing something. It seems like there's a whole bunch of people not working, but some how making money to pay the bills...Perhaps as Starboard mentions, the non-working are finally taking off the jammies or surf shorts and are starting to look for work, I don't know.
BTW. I think they ate the Pheasant. How could you possibly kill such a beautiful bird and not eat it? Save the feathers Bill, they make good fly fishing flies among other things.
I think the "Labor Participation Rate" that Bill often references answers at least some of your questions. It's at a 40 year low right now which tells us that there are a ton of able bodied, working age people that aren't working.
You alluded to the interesting question: How do all those people house, feed and clothe themselves?
My bet is they chucked the birds into the trash and managed to survive eating everything else. There is nothing worse than rancid poultry or foul.
So a foul fowl, I suppose.
(Sorry. Couldn't resist...)
I had basketball on my mind lol.
I was thinking the others were squeamish as it was "gamey" smelling...rotten you don't even give to the animals...
You have to count the massive influx from Dem controlled cites. Lots of folks relocating to FL I'd be one if not for the mosquitoes, gators, snakes, sharks and bacterial all wanting a pound of flesh. I figure 2 weeks every other year in FL lowers my odds of being eaten alive.
You'd be shocked at how small the bug problem is down here.
I was.....and you're not going to get eaten.
Those comments were partly tongue in cheek. I was actually vacationing with friends in Sanibel on the day of the hurricane. We left the island about 2 hours prior to the causeway washing out. As luck would have it we have a friend with a second home in Naples. We arrived a few hours ahead of the hurricane. We lost power but has luck would have the Sheriff lives on the other side of the cul-de-dac, and he has a generator. We had our morning coffee after all. The next day learning from the Sheriff the interstate might in fact flood we headed to Tampa.
I'm not so sure I'd be in the market for a house on costal Florida, best to rent or Air BnB. Miraculously the 1930's construction home in Sanibel received very little damage, while the 6 story condo built 100 yards ahead did not fair so well. There's something to be said about the older homes. The builders were much smarter building these as far back from the beach while keeping the roof line low slung mostly build with hip roofs. The Mucky Duck in Captiva seemed to far very well. I suppose after multiple hurricanes the owners were wise to update while leaving the basic bones intact.
I wil admit I don't recall giving blood to any mosqitos, and avoided the gators
Hi David -
Shhhhh! Let the world continue with the misconceptions about all the natural "dangers" down here - it helps keep out the riff raff!
Regarding Dennis' comments about construction - I have a small cottage in West Palm Beach just on the west side of the river. It was built in 1947 as Officer Housing for the now closed Palm Beach Naval Air Station. It is 100% constructed of wood from the Causarina equisetifolia tree, commonly known as Australian Pine, or down here, Dade Pine. These are the tall, fast-spreading coastal "Pine-like" trees with needles that "sing" in the wind and are found up and down the coast of the SE US. The species has been classified as Invasive for many years in this state, though their root system is superb at erosion control along the ocean or any other water bank. Government logic at work.
Anyway, back in the day what is now Miami-Dade County (south of Palm Beach & Broward Counties) was absolutely covered with these trees. So, Floridians being Floridians, they used the opportunity after WWII to not only clear Dade County for development but to also mill these trees and build long-lasting structures. I believe the wood is the second or third hardest on the face of the earth and numerous old timers have told me that they had to pre-drill a hole to drive a nail and count on several saw sharpening sessions when using the material in construction. Mold or mildew won't grow on it (even after inundation), termites can't/won't eat it and it never warps. A trip to the attic is a treat due to the beautiful red shades of the rafters and all the solidified sap on the underside of the roof. Spectacular.
When I decided to buy the place back in 2015, my family (who ALL had had careers in Florida Real Estate, I'm the black sheep in that regard - and a few others now that I think about it) advised against the purchase. I researched the property to the best of my ability and decided that I would take a nearly 70-year old house, made from Dade Pine and hammered together with Pittsburgh Steel nails by a bunch of guys who had just kicked Hitler's a** ANY DAY over a newer home made from White Pine and held together by Chinese "steel" nails applied with nail guns by people who likely weren't all that concerned with the quality of the finished project seeing how the job was just one of hundreds they would be building in a "planned community."
I've never regretted the decision.
It is obvious the house has held up extremely well through all the Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that have washed by over the years, while the property is located 1.1 miles from the beach as the crow flies. I'm hoping for another 70+ years, as long as I can keep the thing from ever catching fire. That is the only unsurvivable threat to the place. But if it ever happened, POOF - up it would go, and quickly too...
One of our businesses contracts with cities to run their adult softball and baseball programs. We've been doing it for over 36 years now such that we've seen pretty much every aspect of the "business cycle" (some of them more than twice). It's a counter-intuitive business because it does better in a bad economy, even better in a really bad economy and the very best in a depression. (The best run was 2007-2012.)
I can tell you things are beginning to get bad because we've had the first two seasons (Fall 2022 and Winter 2023 which is just starting) where year over year sales increased since 2011. Like you, we're also seeing an increase in the number of people looking to make extra money in the evenings and on weekends by umpiring and score keeping the games. That isn't the case when times are good. My point: I think your observation is more than anecdotal because this pattern with our business has been accurate every time since 1986.
yes ......the peasant in borneo looking at dirty pictures of white women in dussenldorf , may learn how white women do it and get better at it himself ,thus enriching his partners experience and may be start reaping added benefits at home ,,,,,,, thus he improved his position at home with added knowledge instead of more cucambers .......??
Great stuff Bill.
Stocks are partying on weak data today, bizarre markets. Maybe Powell will bring the big hawks out next Tuesday in Response.
"Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff recently made waves when he told employees in a Slack message that the company’s newest hires aren’t being productive enough, and he wanted help figuring out why. The tech giant’s employee productivity issue is not an isolated one."
My son in law is owner and operator of one of our family franchise businesses. He's able to point out new hires addicted to Tic Tok and those simply checking their phone during the day.
I suggested all phones be left in the employee lockers, only to be used during break times.
He chuckled and shot back:" Dad, they'd all quit the next day".
Bill, you missed the best part:
But at my back I always hear
Time’s wingèd chariot hurrying near;
And yonder all before us lie
Deserts of vast eternity.
Thy beauty shall no more be found;
Nor, in thy marble vault, shall sound
My echoing song; then worms shall try
That long-preserved virginity,
And your quaint honour turn to dust,
And into ashes all my lust;
The grave’s a fine and private place,
But none, I think, do there embrace.
That section on “fantasy worlds” is a must read. Need to copy/paste into my notepad for future reference.
Good Morning, just a quick note of no importance. I especially enjoyed the interweaving of the To His Coy Mistress poem in today's missive. I was 16 when I read it (69 now) I would ,of course send it to potential mates as a romantic approach (art of seduction, sorta) and love this poem still to this day. Caused a smile amidst the uncertainty. Thank you so much, Gary Jones :)
Hmmmmm, seeing as you have an adequate length of study duration and assuming a large enough sample size - if you had to rate the overall "effectiveness" with the fairer sex to that snatch of prose , waddaya think? ;)
Just curious...
I hope Bill, Joel, Tom, or Dan will address China's reopening, at least by April, when the weather warms up there and Chinese younger than 60 build up some natural immunity and start working, driving, and traveling. You would think energy prices would rise from April through October, possibly adding to inflation not just in China but around the world. Could this be why Chairman Xi was in S.A. not long ago talking to the Saudi royals?
I understand that over a million older Chinese could die in 2023 from the reopening, which is very sad, but they aren't part of the workforce. I was struck by The Economist reporting that the authoritarian-run govt. and central bank didn't financially stimulate the economy in China during COVID lockdowns as much as the U.S. federal govt. and central bank (aka The Fed) did in the U.S. I realize there could be many reasons why this is so, such as differences in the two countries' economies and govt. structure. And maybe the Chinese people are better savers than Americans?
I'm sure Bonner Private Research will eventually provide their usual rigorous analysis of this matter.
Upon our visit to Ireland we travelled from Dublin to our family property in Galway (rented to the same tenant for 30 years) I had this strong desire not to return to the USA. I'm an introvert, and one who finds great satisfaction is resurrecting that which has no perceived value to its former condition. If I was single and not happily married, I'd be asking Bill if he had a spare daughter or relative or would he consider hiring on a handyman for room and board, I'd even consider residence in the Gypsy wagon?
I think it's pretty simple. Just keep it, use it, improve it, [whatever it may be] until you die or the kids take over. Like my classic cars, I don't care what happens to them when I'm dead. It's enough to know I did something useful with them [preservation, enjoyment, whatever] when I was alive [and harmed no one, at least who didn't harm me.]
Here, Here PG (or hear, hear as it were...) --
All excellent questions and enquiring minds want to know.
Of course the answers are technically None of Our Business, BUT:
Bill, those of us out here in the great hinterland invest time, energy and emotion in your daily missives, hence we think of you and yours as "family."
So what gives? I think those of us with a decent memory can connect the dots on your avoiding Argentina due to risking arrest based solely on corruption and through no fault of your own, but please, at least let us know how Christmas dinner turned out!!
Talk about a cliff hanger...