62 Comments
User's avatar
Spiff's avatar

The Big Loss.

I'm over 60. My mom over 85, but I do not think it is correct to be overburdened by the "Big Loss" fear.

I plan to pass wealth to my kids and grandkids, even as my grandparents did.

My grandfather never sold any stock which is the biggest reason my family is well off today.

Had no one in my family ever sold, we would probably have 2 to 3 times as much.

I still look at the list of our stocks that didn't go to zero, but to the moon, but they were sold early: Lam research, NVDIA, TSLA, AMZN, APPL, LLY, Chipotle, Buffalo Wild Wings. The list continues but these stocks alone would be worth over $3 million total today if never sold.

I know the past 30 years seem to be unusal because of massive government intervention (printing and interest rates), but these are still the facts.

What if my mom would have worried about the Big Loss 30 years ago when she was 57 and sold almost everything and hunkered down? Then we would have probably a quarter of what we have today.

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

Thank you for the contrary perspective. A lot to consider in your words...

Expand full comment
Spiff's avatar

It's always a tough call.

I (and my family due to the fact that I manage it) is heavily into SLV, XOP, gold. I take to heart the advice that Bonner and team give, but there is still room to look for innovative companies that will prosper assuming everything doesn't go down the tubes. Some big winners for us have been trade desk, pro medicus, berkshire, msft, apple and TSLA (bought higher than original sold!), ISRG, of course several crypto currencies and MSTR. All ten bagger ++

To me, the "risk" of not buying some innovative companies outweighs the risk of losing the money used to buy them. One huge winner makes up for all the losers.

Expand full comment
Mackinac's avatar

Especially tough when you are at a market top as MOMENTUM and everything else supports a continuation, except fundamentals (which haven't worked for 20 years).

Expand full comment
Bob Gmitter's avatar

Me too. Made a killing this year on gold, silver, platinum. Used leveraged gold ETFs and options to magnify it.

Expand full comment
Steve L's avatar

Good article Bill and thank you David! I also backed out of most of my stocks over the years and transferred most remaining to Military, Healthcare, Energy, QQQ and Gold. Was a good move. I also started buying Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana back in early 19 and added every month from my portfolio. Was an exceptional move. We are living through another great reset and as history has shown in the past, everything changes. When the change is slow, the majority of people don’t even notice. Here most people see it happening daily, and because of each other, hopefully are better informed and prepared for what we know is coming. As always Best Wishes 🙏

Expand full comment
Spiff's avatar

Great investing insight you had.

The group that got me into crypto also tried to get me into TSLA at 50! I didn't listen to the TSLA advice. Too bad.

They had to get some credibility back after having a fracking expedition in Germany go to zero, but their argument for BTC when it was at 1000 was compelling. I'm glad I listened to that one.

Expand full comment
Steve L's avatar

I’m so blessed to have done my research on crypto, and believe this is only the beginning for a massive move up! I have taken money out of that portfolio last year and had a bolthole built in our beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains( still not able to get to it because my 1/4 mile driveway is half gone) and lots of physical silver, gold and platinum 😊. I have to admit that a large portion of my decisions were based on information from this site and pushed me to move into crypto, which has been incredibly successful. I’m not gloating on my success, but thank our host and our fellow readers for their knowledge and insights! 🙏

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

At the most opportune moment in time; a new, better driveway access will be fulfilled

Expand full comment
Paul Murray's avatar

I did exactly as you speculate. I was in my late 40s, and I was tired of the game. I'm still here and nominally functional at 72 and my Mom is 96. I don't have to worry about the next Big Loss, which I believe is coming: taxes on unrealized gains. Each man analyzes his needs and his tolerance. Bully to those who have fought and prospered. I guess I didn't want it badly enough. Best always. PM

Expand full comment
Steve L's avatar

Never give up the fight brother Paul! It’s all part of life and we learn to love and appreciate the good day’s, regardless of how few, because there is always hope until there isn’t. And either way we get to the other side of the bad knowing we gave it 1000%💪

Expand full comment
Bob Gmitter's avatar

Everybody is different and have different levels of risk tolerance.

Expand full comment
Paul Murray's avatar

What I couldn't take was the government's hands in my pockets. It was so odious, I decided to quit. Comparatively, the "house" advantage in Las Vegas is less onerous. Best always. PM

Expand full comment
Fraser M's avatar

It's not a profit until you sell it.

To give it some perspective, my doctor said to me the other week that I should drink less, exercise more, sleep more, drink less coffee and lose a bit of weight (at 49 I can still run up and down a 3,000' mountain in about 1.5 hours). I asked her "if I do all those things will I live forever?" Obviously the answer was "no" so I said "then the game isn't to survive, it's to live".

Convert some of that stock to good times and memories and keep the rest for a rainy day.

Expand full comment
Mark S.'s avatar

If I was 24 and I vesting 20% of my salary on th Ed market with a time horizon of 40 years, your theory has a better chance of proving true. But like Bill says if your over 50 your time horizon is short and you don't want to be in that biggest looser group if you don't have to be. With everything we know to be true in how to make money in today's market today might not be the best time of all he's saying...its all about prospective.

Expand full comment
C Eti's avatar

All things being equal !!

Do U see anything being like, or even remotely simular to the timeline of the 1950s through 90s now??

Expand full comment
Paul Murray's avatar

In the late 90s, I decided to eliminate risk altogether, avoiding the Big Loss in the process. I sold everything and quit. I have been living on cash and metals ever since, plus whatever side gigs I could pull in. I stopped working full-time in 2014. I never regretted any of this. My reasoning: you either have to be hyper-wealthy or broke. Anything in the middle, the "system" grinds away to nothingness. The price of my decision was "success". The only "killing" I ever experienced was the one I was receiving at the hands of the "system". Best always. PM

P.S. "How many suits can a man wear at one time? How many rooms can he sleep in at a time? How many cars can he drive?" Jesse Owens.

Expand full comment
Bob of the bald's avatar

One of the factors contributing to our sad state of affairs is good old fashioned materialism. I am guilty of this sad to say. Paul my friend you hit a nerve. God's blessings my friend.

Expand full comment
Worm Farmer extraordinaire's avatar

Off topic. In my reading today I came across this. Galatians chapter 5 verse 1. "It is for freedom That Christ has set us free. Stand firm, then, and do not let yourselves be burdened again by the yoke of slavery". I will stand firm.

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

And, I stand solidly shoulder to shoulder with you.

M

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

I got y'alls 6...

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

Extremely sound advice today, Mr. Bonner. Thank you.

See how easy it was to post a complete missive that doesn't insult Trump, Israel or the supporters of either?

PS - "If you didn’t believe it, you just ‘didn’t get it.’ "

Paging Bitcoin. Bitcoin to the White courtesy phone...

Expand full comment
John P Gallien's avatar

Must have taken his meds today.

Expand full comment
Bob Gmitter's avatar

Is the Fed put even an option now? Since the dot com crash, the Fed has always stepped in and dropped rates to prop up the correcting stock markets which has led us to always inflating stock market bubble. Can they even do this anymore with our high inflation and huge debt?

Expand full comment
Mackinac's avatar

I suspect we will find out.

Expand full comment
Mackinac's avatar

Seems we just got some insight the skeptical were looking for.

I believe it is pretty simple but certainly has required the patience of Job and god damnit still does.

Expand full comment
Steven S. Kuwahara's avatar

Just a comment on the big rush to nuclear and other means of producing electricity. The industry (AI) and commentators predict a huge need for more electricity in the future. My question is what will happen to all the energy that flows through the systems? It seems to me that most of electricity must pass through some resistance to produce work, and going through resistance produces heat. What will happen to all the heat that will be generated? Dumping it in the ocean will just warm the water. Turning it into steam will warm the atmosphere. How will we dispose of the heat? Can we radiate it into space without losing part of the atmosphere?

Expand full comment
Egypt Solomon's avatar

You only need to buy Exxon and Apple and you’ll be set for the next 100 years. Whether you are 20 or 90 years old, you can’t go wrong with those 2 stocks, mirror my bets and you’ll be set, Trust me!!! 🤩😂

When the horns of Jupiter interact with the gaseous volatility of the yellow sphere, the essence of intensity signifies the participation of incorporated mind set. She cries an epic minute on national TV. Harris coins are no longer in production. You cannot petition the vote counted on both sides of the same ballot under the lunar lamp! Weeping cough of Aquarius has tongue twisted the moronic fish salad of words that ain’t worth a plug nickel Miss. Quacking in your heels will not stop the squeaky tears from dripping. The up down vocal pitch is squinting the dark devil in your eyes, stop moving your hand like a rustic blotched brain, shaky elongated words sound like a mice with no cheese. Eat the soup sandwich, you’re all ate up Kay Kay. The electromagnetic waves control the universe.

Expand full comment
Egypt Solomon's avatar

Great info!

The only credit I’ll ever give Warren Buffet is his ability to confirm the existence of a one of a kind true exceptional stock, when “like usual” he sells the stock too early! Lol

That’s when I know it’s a great stock and a great company, and it’s time to back up and load the truck!

That’s one of my buy buy buy that specific stock signal because Warren Bugget always SELLS too early! Hahaha

As far as Exxon goes, we are happy subscribers to this awesome informative publication by Mr. Bonner. It gives us invaluable advice, but just like a Bruce Lee fighting philosophy, you take a little bit from different sectors of your surroundings and use it to your advantage, the same way he took a little bit from all fighting styles to became the greatest martial artist ever.

We all know that the green new scam is going nowhere. It’s dead in the water, literally!😂

I’m talking about the idea of “wind” and “water” energy that the Libs use to brainwash the masses.

Elon Musk, the 20th Century Einstein is real, Tesla is real, and that technology will continue to elevate civilization because it never existed before, like the atomic bomb before it was invented. But wind and water? Hahaha C’mon man, that’s been around since the dinosaurs, it’s not like if it’s going to all of a sudden magically revolutionize the world.

Going back to Mr. Bonner, he knows exactly what’s up! Oil and gas are the future!

Exxon baby!!! 🤩

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

A fun detour into the A.I. o’sphere with my Q&A: https://tinyurl.com/5629pzy5

And, at the very bottom, “…914 major companies in the study…” is not to be overlooked

Expand full comment
Wes T's avatar

Neither is the 85% probability

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

That's a keeper, Mark...

Expand full comment
Dorothy's avatar

ES: Both stocks are a good buy, esp., if you have owned them for a while. Both are down today, but not too much. Apple more than Exxon. I think you can expect more and more volatility from the stock market. Some are expecting a Big crash in the near future (whatever near future means).

Expand full comment
Dino's avatar

To avoid a big loss (aka gut-wrenching drawdowns), follow the primary trend on the weekly chart, use technical analysis (10/40 EMA, linear regression, Bollinger Band %B, OBV, and PPO), use stops, and follow the Dow to Gold Ratio, which would likely maximize your gains while limiting your losses.

But people spend more time focused on digital bread and circuses, keeping up with the Joneses, chasing a "sure thing", and arguing on social media over things they have zero control over.

Investing success requires discipline, resisting FOMO, sound money management, and limiting your losses, especially in a market environment fueled by Fed and government-induced systemic distortions.

Expand full comment
C Eti's avatar

This time it's different !!!!!

Hahahaha 😁😂😁😂😁😂😁

o en espanol ... jajajajaja 😁😂😁😂😁😂

Overnight Repo rates are in the same position, or worse than mid Oct 2019. (And this is a 'selection' year) The banks won't lend overnight to each other for fear of; on (more importantly ... off) the books derivative positions the borrower may be on hook 4.

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

The wise ones amongst us ought seriously consider your “…for fear of; on (more importantly ... off) the books derivative positions…”

Kudos on those eleven words.

Mark

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

Today’s Bonner article has 1 quote from Bloomberg and 2 paragraphs on thoughts about the (Fed) Federal Reserve.

An alternative angle - “Why Fed Reform Could Be the Biggest Sleeper Issue of 2024” authored by Alexander W. Salter, October 28, 2024 published here https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/why-fed-reform-could-be-the-biggest-sleeper-issue-of-2024/?_bhlid=50e6d35084ccc0901bbffca496345dab9d1d3780

Spoiler Alert: The Fed’s institutional flaws and failures trashed its credibility. It’s time to rein in the central bank.

Cheers,

Mark

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

I'm sure the slutty toddler will get right on that should the inevitable upcoming steal be successful...

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

Bob Dylan’s song lyrics seem fitting; 4 verses, 4 chorus’, an Instrumental Bridge and there I hear genius in “It’s all over now, baby blue”.

Expand full comment
Kevin Beck's avatar

The current high P/E for stocks only makes sense when the return-free risk rate on Treasuries is falling. Right now, that's probably not in the game plan.

Expand full comment
Agent22Smith's avatar

Just sent this to my 30something children to reinforce what I've been trying to teach them. However, given their age I suggest that they should invest regularly and thus dollar cost average rather than worry about market direction.

Expand full comment
Sluggo's avatar

"Wall Street’s claims that you always make money in the stock market is an exaggeration. You make money sometimes, not all the time. Is one of those losing periods coming up soon?

We don’t know, but if you’re over 50, it’s too great a risk to ignore."

Amen, Bill. Amen...but your buddy Whitney Tilson sure is bullish:

"I remain constructive on stocks and the economy – here's how I summed it up:

Though slowing, the economy remains strong.

The expansion is now 51 months long. The last four expansions in the U.S. lasted a minimum of 73 months with the 2009-2020 expansion running for a record 128 months (over 10 years).

Inflation is muted and likely to remain so.

There are two win-wins for investors:

1) Either the economy will remain strong (good for stocks) or it will weaken and the Fed will cut more aggressively (good for stocks); and

2) Investors can sit in stocks (and likely earn decent returns) or cash (and earn risk-free returns of more than 4%). (Just make sure you're earning market rates on your cash!)"

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Oct 30
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Dorothy's avatar

Alt: You’re on a roll…keep it up! Have a safe trip home.

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

Nah. He needs to put down the bottle and go to bed. He's got both pasty white cheeks hanging out...

Expand full comment
Don Hrehirchek's avatar

That may happen. That is that is if He wins. But to pull the fleet from the Med. would bring something that You may not think could happen. Not that I can see into the future any more than You can . Just My sites in the times of this world system.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Oct 30
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Petra Kehr's avatar

To put it in the correct perspective:

The Pentagon Website discloses, that there are roughly 750 (active) Military Installations outside US-Territory. In total it's close to 1000, but a quarter is in "dormant" status. Waiting to be revived some day?

The biggest one is Ramstein Air Base in Germany, accomodated by about 100 others alone in GER.

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

Imagine the Waste, Fraud and Abuse...

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

The rotten root of the fr-wa-ab family tree are ensconced among the boot-licking regime media apparatchik and sycophants - https://tinyurl.com/7n63ues …open the books…both sets of ‘em!

Expand full comment
Petra Kehr's avatar

Sorry Mark, have to admit, the Family letter Menu is cryptic to me

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

Decrypting as fr(aud) wa(ste) ab(use)

family as in descendants, political nepotism, cronyism or a tacit partner

Thanks for asking Petra.

M

Expand full comment
Petra Kehr's avatar

Unimaginable. And myriads of issues like one I recall from the German military, where they ordered headphones ( by the thousands) that came with a price tag of the equivalent of 17.000 USD. Each of course.

Sure there's a lot similar with US

Expand full comment
C Eti's avatar

The same Pentagram that still can't (or won't) account for almost US $ 5 trillion now??

Expand full comment
Aaron Lane's avatar

You’ve hit the nail on the head Altschule! Yes, they were incredible…but no one outside our borders gives a 🐀 ass about the “greatest generation” anymore. We can’t keep selling what they created when no one’s buying it any longer.

Expand full comment
Gone Fishin’'s avatar

Too bad for them. They are doing so at their own peril.

Expand full comment
Steve L's avatar

Yes brother Altschule, it’s good to hear some logical reasoning from your experience here in America. I don’t know how long it’s been since last time you were here, but I’m sure the changes you’ve experienced were extreme compared to how you left it. Most of us have had wonderful lives here, and hope you enjoyed the same with your decision. The world is changing so fast and I pray that your “Orange Head”(your such a hater) is able to make the necessary changes to help America and reverse the damage caused by decades of corruption and incompetence. Happy you enjoyed your visit and glad you made it home safe 😊

Expand full comment
StarboardEdge's avatar

Thank you for seeing past your terminal TDS long enough to glimpse and articulate a spot 'o Reality, Altschule...

Expand full comment
C Eti's avatar

U suffer from reverse TDS !!

Trumpstein is no hero, nor stand-in zio-messiah, although the Chabad-Lubivitchers rebbes have given him that temp. title !!

Expand full comment
Wes T's avatar

I agree with everything you say. I just don’t see that orange head is the guy. I hope I’m proved wrong. And even if he is the right guy, the deep state will never let him. So unless the Qs are right about key backing, doubtful things will change.

Expand full comment