There are deep, irresistible currents that carry prices upward or sink them down. We call it the Primary Trend. Even the best companies go down in price when the Primary Trend is working against them
What if we had never sold any stocks (that was my grandfather's method which has benefitted us greatly)?
The big one I see is my father's relatively small investment in Lam Research in the early 1990's would be worth $1.75 million today. But I found he sold out in the late 1990's for a substantial profit but not with the 100,000% gains we would see today.
I have owned Apple, Amazon, NVDA, Chipotle, Buffalo Wild Wings and many others that would be all worth in the 6 figures now but were sold too soon.
A quarter million worth of Lucent went to zero (the real big loss) and others too like Global Crossing, but the big winners more than made up for all losers.
This is my honest assessment of my last 40 years of investing. Of course, this has all been during the great bull market, but also encompassed the crash of 87, 2000's 75% loss for the NASDAQ and the Financial crisis of 2008.
It seems Bogle of Vanguard was correct when he said "Don't do something! Just stand there." At least, I have found that to be true for my life.
Hindsight is so accurate. The World as Bob Dylan sang - it is a-changin'. There are huge waves of changes coming. Acutely hard to see living here in America with constantly propaganda crap the government, media, and big corporations, but doesn't keep it from happening. If your view is the U.S. and the World isn't changin'. Good Luck with that.
Bill is not disagreeing with what you are saying, all he is saying is that when the big loss happens (who knows when and BPR feel we need to be in safety mode) you need to ask yourself “how old am i, can i recover, do i have enough to retire, etc” because when it does happen, there are a lot of years before the trend turns. Yes long term, it does what you have said. But can you last the downturn and have the metal to do it and financial to do it?
You can protect your financial security by blocking your Social Security Number. Nobody can open a new credit card or make a new loan or do anything where a SS number is required in your name if your number is blocked. You can block it over the internet or in person at a Social Security office .If you do it in person that number can only be unplugged in person at the same office where you plugged it. I found out about that because my number got compromised
Since Greenspan implemented the famed "Fed put" to reverse needed stock market corrections, many young investors really do believe that the stock market really can't collapse or even major correct.
I don't believe that I ever sold anything at a profit. By the time the system got done with me, everything I did or sold was, technically, a loss. Mid-life (I'm 72), with 5 kids and all the overhead, I quit worrying about it. Still, I think I had a great life. And judging by what I see around me, I think it was better than most. Best always. PM
Yes Paul, life was challenging as a young man from a poor family. Working like an animal, always 70 plus hours a week brought me and my family out of a poor situation to a wonderful place. The market was always good because of the stocks I bought and timing, which is always important. Growing up in the times we did were just incredible, with God, family and country as our base beliefs and the support of those beliefs that made us who we are. No question we grew up in the best of times my brother, just sad to see it all disappear so quickly 😕
Thanks, Mr Bonner… I’m frustrated with the outrageous stock prices and P/E’s.
Seems the wealthy investors are keeping the rest of us artificially out of the stock market. The vast majority of us have our $’s in cash. We don’t have a button to push to immediately sell equity positions if we had a lot of them. Instead we lose 20%….if we’re lucky….when the market goes south in a hurry. I am not a sophisticated investor…don’t have (or can afford) the expensive tools Stansberry keeps trying to sell me.
Wealthy investors are trying to suck us into paying huge premiums for stocks….and many investors cave and pay up. The Fed is helping the rich lock us out of the chance to make a few bucks. Even our metals positions are due for a correction. We’re between a rock and another hard place.
You’re right…. I can’t afford the Big Loss at 73 yrs old. Inflation is eating my savings away on several fronts. Guess I should be grateful to make 4 or 5% to slow down the drain. 🤷🏻♂️
Hope you and your team can improve our chances to compete against the big players and forces against us.
Bill, I’ve been subscribing for 2+ years. I appreciate the intellectual context of your
Publication. Our minds need to continually grow as well as our net worth.
I retired in 2005 with a NW of $2M. I stupidly
was invested heavily in equities & lost 40%.
For the first time in my life I sustained a major
Setback! It took me a year to recover & get back into the game. For the last 20 years I revised my game plan as a retiree. No more then 35% equities—dividend payers & energy
BDC’s & MLP’s—-CD’s & TB’s.
This sane plan helped me recover my loss +.
I now have a NW of $2.5M. I draw $50K from my IRA & earn $80K in interest & dividends.
Your plan for Maximum Safety has played
Beautifully in my personal plan. I have added
tankers, uranium, currency & gold to my portfolio. I am grateful for your team’s recommendations. Your recent piece
The only problem with gold as I see it is you can’t spend it. That may well change in the future and gold may once again become coin of the realm, at least in some places. But the journey from here to there, for the world and for individuals, is fraught with unpredictable twists and turns as well as peril. Avoiding the Big Loss is at first a paper game, but eventually it becomes ‘What Can I Buy?’. If we are talking survival that becomes “What is available to buy?” Gold has a long history as a reliable store of value, but in the 21st century we must ask ourselves if history remains prologue.
Tom, "VLCC prices bottomed during covid but still are far below previous highs of the last 50 years..."
Doesn't this imply that, because it's not historically expensive to build a tanker, that its historically "likely" that more tankers will be built and therefore existing tankers (and tanker companies) are likely to face additional competition?
You'll probably cover it, but, regarding our new shipping holdings, do you anticipate an impact from the probable strike of the International Longshoreman's association (ILA)?
I'm not certain history agrees with Bill.
My own family's history certainly does not.
What if we had never sold any stocks (that was my grandfather's method which has benefitted us greatly)?
The big one I see is my father's relatively small investment in Lam Research in the early 1990's would be worth $1.75 million today. But I found he sold out in the late 1990's for a substantial profit but not with the 100,000% gains we would see today.
I have owned Apple, Amazon, NVDA, Chipotle, Buffalo Wild Wings and many others that would be all worth in the 6 figures now but were sold too soon.
A quarter million worth of Lucent went to zero (the real big loss) and others too like Global Crossing, but the big winners more than made up for all losers.
This is my honest assessment of my last 40 years of investing. Of course, this has all been during the great bull market, but also encompassed the crash of 87, 2000's 75% loss for the NASDAQ and the Financial crisis of 2008.
It seems Bogle of Vanguard was correct when he said "Don't do something! Just stand there." At least, I have found that to be true for my life.
Hindsight is so accurate. The World as Bob Dylan sang - it is a-changin'. There are huge waves of changes coming. Acutely hard to see living here in America with constantly propaganda crap the government, media, and big corporations, but doesn't keep it from happening. If your view is the U.S. and the World isn't changin'. Good Luck with that.
Of course it's changing. People accurately said the same the past 40 years. However, buy and hold has proven to yield the best results.
It's not hindsight. People said the same back then. I just didn't listen.
DW: Agree. I still have some of the stocks that I bought over 16 years ago and continue making money off of them. Most pay great dividends
Good for you sweet Dorothy, but it may be time to take some profits and do something that makes you happy 😊
SL: Thanks…I am happy. I do not deny myself a lot of things. Hope all’s well with you.
Bill is not disagreeing with what you are saying, all he is saying is that when the big loss happens (who knows when and BPR feel we need to be in safety mode) you need to ask yourself “how old am i, can i recover, do i have enough to retire, etc” because when it does happen, there are a lot of years before the trend turns. Yes long term, it does what you have said. But can you last the downturn and have the metal to do it and financial to do it?
This might not quite belong here.
You can protect your financial security by blocking your Social Security Number. Nobody can open a new credit card or make a new loan or do anything where a SS number is required in your name if your number is blocked. You can block it over the internet or in person at a Social Security office .If you do it in person that number can only be unplugged in person at the same office where you plugged it. I found out about that because my number got compromised
Since Greenspan implemented the famed "Fed put" to reverse needed stock market corrections, many young investors really do believe that the stock market really can't collapse or even major correct.
I don't believe that I ever sold anything at a profit. By the time the system got done with me, everything I did or sold was, technically, a loss. Mid-life (I'm 72), with 5 kids and all the overhead, I quit worrying about it. Still, I think I had a great life. And judging by what I see around me, I think it was better than most. Best always. PM
Yes Paul, life was challenging as a young man from a poor family. Working like an animal, always 70 plus hours a week brought me and my family out of a poor situation to a wonderful place. The market was always good because of the stocks I bought and timing, which is always important. Growing up in the times we did were just incredible, with God, family and country as our base beliefs and the support of those beliefs that made us who we are. No question we grew up in the best of times my brother, just sad to see it all disappear so quickly 😕
Thanks, Mr Bonner… I’m frustrated with the outrageous stock prices and P/E’s.
Seems the wealthy investors are keeping the rest of us artificially out of the stock market. The vast majority of us have our $’s in cash. We don’t have a button to push to immediately sell equity positions if we had a lot of them. Instead we lose 20%….if we’re lucky….when the market goes south in a hurry. I am not a sophisticated investor…don’t have (or can afford) the expensive tools Stansberry keeps trying to sell me.
Wealthy investors are trying to suck us into paying huge premiums for stocks….and many investors cave and pay up. The Fed is helping the rich lock us out of the chance to make a few bucks. Even our metals positions are due for a correction. We’re between a rock and another hard place.
You’re right…. I can’t afford the Big Loss at 73 yrs old. Inflation is eating my savings away on several fronts. Guess I should be grateful to make 4 or 5% to slow down the drain. 🤷🏻♂️
Hope you and your team can improve our chances to compete against the big players and forces against us.
Best regards.
Bill, I’ve been subscribing for 2+ years. I appreciate the intellectual context of your
Publication. Our minds need to continually grow as well as our net worth.
I retired in 2005 with a NW of $2M. I stupidly
was invested heavily in equities & lost 40%.
For the first time in my life I sustained a major
Setback! It took me a year to recover & get back into the game. For the last 20 years I revised my game plan as a retiree. No more then 35% equities—dividend payers & energy
BDC’s & MLP’s—-CD’s & TB’s.
This sane plan helped me recover my loss +.
I now have a NW of $2.5M. I draw $50K from my IRA & earn $80K in interest & dividends.
Your plan for Maximum Safety has played
Beautifully in my personal plan. I have added
tankers, uranium, currency & gold to my portfolio. I am grateful for your team’s recommendations. Your recent piece
“What would Peter do? Was very timely.
Never risk at a level to disrupt your current
$ level that creates your comfortable lifestyle!
Thank you again & I plan on being a Lifetime
Subscriber
Pete Dubin
Thank you for helping me diversify.
The only problem with gold as I see it is you can’t spend it. That may well change in the future and gold may once again become coin of the realm, at least in some places. But the journey from here to there, for the world and for individuals, is fraught with unpredictable twists and turns as well as peril. Avoiding the Big Loss is at first a paper game, but eventually it becomes ‘What Can I Buy?’. If we are talking survival that becomes “What is available to buy?” Gold has a long history as a reliable store of value, but in the 21st century we must ask ourselves if history remains prologue.
Tom, "VLCC prices bottomed during covid but still are far below previous highs of the last 50 years..."
Doesn't this imply that, because it's not historically expensive to build a tanker, that its historically "likely" that more tankers will be built and therefore existing tankers (and tanker companies) are likely to face additional competition?
Respectfully, Bill, a bullish market is risk-on, while bearish is risk-off. Lol!
Anyone else ever consider this admonishment. Ezekiel 7:19 ??
Yes. And if a nation is overrun by an adversary this will apply once again.
You'll probably cover it, but, regarding our new shipping holdings, do you anticipate an impact from the probable strike of the International Longshoreman's association (ILA)?