The Primary Political Trend
Big Government was triumphant. And Big Government means big spending, big budgets, big deficits, big debt... and knucklehead, big-shot delusions.
Wednesday, November 6th, 2024
Bill Bonner, writing today from Baltimore, Maryland
Yes, I know I've been untrue
And I have hurt you through and through
But please have mercy on this heart of mine
Take me back and try me one more time
—Ernest Tubb
Finally, the election fever has broken. The sun still shines. The world still turns. Beer still goes flat.
The nation has taken Donald J. Trump back. It will give him another try.
Last week came an opinion from Rana Foroohar in the Financial Times. It’s not too late, she says. We can still make America great again. All we need to do is to identify the problems and make the right choices. Just as we did in the 1890s.
Both countries [Britain and the US] were ultimately able to pass sweeping reforms that improved workers’ rights and labour standards, increased access to education, enfranchised new groups of voters and so on. The national renewal of Victorian Britain and Progressive-era America reflect this point. In both cases, political and business figures, activists, trade unions and various grassroots movements were part of a robust national discussion about reform. I’d argue that this factor is also present in the US today where, despite political polarisation, there is a rich bottom-up debate about how the country should change.
Oh my.
Ms. Foroohar completely misunderstands what happened. She thinks that anti-trust legislation... labor protections... giving women the vote — the conscious efforts of well-meaning citizens in the late 19th century — pulled the country out of a funk.
What really happened, we believe, was just the opposite. The 1880s were the most successful years in America’s history... with more wealth and more freedom than we had before or since. But then, prosperity and success turned Americans’ heads. They came to believe that they could force other people to do things that would make a better world. They passed new laws. They wrote new rules. They hired G-men…government men… to enforce the ruling elites’ decrees.
“There are tides in the affairs of men,” wrote Shakespeare. Just as there are ‘Primary Trends’ in markets... there are tides in politics, too... powerful currents that have a life of their own. These deep currents are not driven by what people want or what they think; instead, like an unrelenting river, they carve the valleys, shape the stones, and erode the shorelines of human thought.
And now... in what direction does the water flow? Whatever it is, the president is elected to follow, not to lead. He drifts with the Primary Political Trend; he doesn’t create it.
For all the arguments about whose economy — Trump’s or Biden’s — was better, the truth is, presidents don’t really affect near-term results very much. Whatever trend was underway when the new president entered the White House is the same trend we’re likely to have when the president leaves.
Year after year, administration after administration... ever since Jimmy Carter left the White House, federal power has increased. Budgets got bigger. Deficits got larger too. The three biggest spenders in US history (in terms of the percentage of debt added) were Roosevelt, Wilson and Reagan, in that order. Roosevelt had a war to deal with. Wilson found a war he could get into. And Reagan thought he was in a life-or-death struggle with communism. No matter what their thoughts... they all did the same thing — expanding the reach of the Federal government.
Reagan was obviously mistaken. By 1991, communism — a creed based largely on fantasy economic theory — had collapsed. At that point, the US could have enjoyed a massive “Peace Dividend.” For the next 33 years, America faced no real military challenge.
But by the ‘90s, it was too late. The current was too strong. There was no choice. Big Government was triumphant. And Big Government means big spending, big budgets, big deficits, big debt... and knucklehead, big-shot delusions.
And now, happy days are here again. Mr. Trump – whose first administration added more new government debt/year than any other in history -- can get back to work.
Stay tuned.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
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Ok, so we made it. This morning has gold in its mouth, but NOW the work starts.
𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘀 (note that I called you by your capitalized, proper name):
Onto the crushing reality - what hoax has already been prepared by the media and the Democrat leadership to spring on President Trump just like Russia, Russia, Russia, the first go round? Anyone paying attention to the facts, reports and "investigations" the last 4 years knows that was an invalid farce and hopefully understands that it has been proven the Steele dossier was paid for by Hillary Clinton's campaign and completely made up in a fabricated attempt to remove power from the duly elected candidate. Ditto for our intelligence agencies spying on the Trump campaign up to and including after he was Inaugurated. If you disagree with these two points, we really don't have a foundation to build any trust on, but hopefully your intelligence will allow you to accept Reality in these instances. No time to bring up the fake "impeachments", the J6 Hoax, the Lawfare attempting to ruin Trump's businesses and wrongfully take away his Liberty, TWO (or maybe 3) ASSASSINATION attempts, and a host of other despicable actions we likely have not been made aware of. Also, while we're here, where did 20 million of Joe's 81 million votes go? Hmmmm.
If you can't or won't release your hatred/envy and acknowledge these Facts, we really don't have any common ground.
Not to be Debbie downer, but we've been through this rodeo before and your side did not act exactly appropriately considering what I just mentioned above, including the laundry list of other borderline treasonous acts that were carried out against Trump in the first four years. I believe you all might actually have the imbecility to jail him in a couple of weeks. Good luck with that and hopefully at least a tiny bit of the Left's criticisms of divisiveness and calls for unity during the past campaign were actually authentic.
Having said all that, here's an olive branch - which is what we've offered you all historically and particularly during Trump's first term. The difference is that now Compromise means you must move our way as we meet in the middle. The American people have spoken and SOUNDLY rejected your headlong dash into Idiocy, Authoritarianism and Degeneracy. For too long Compromise meant that we acquiesce to your wants and demands - that age has officially passed. Come together and help us Make America Great Again for EVERYONE. Please.
Let's see if more of you are willing to accept our open hands of Cooperation this time. I'm quite skeptical, for good reason. But we can't get where we need to be without you....