The Fed frets more about unemployment than any other economic indicator. And if the unemployment rate keeps getting weaker, they’ll cut rates right away.
I ditched out of a "major" metropolitan area for a socially conservative rural community in 1990. I did this, because I could see what was coming. Over time off-shoring, NAFTA, and the explosion in government "entitlement" programs (vote-buying) decimated this community and hundreds of thousands like it. The result? This area and similar places, mostly in "red" areas, are already in permanent recession, and the economy tanking will have little effect here. Many people have adopted and adapted to a non-discretionary income lifestyle and don't pay any attention anymore to any economic development, with the exception, perhaps, the price of gasoline and fast food, for which there is no government subsidy YET.. There is little private, individual ownership remaining as a result. It will take a governmental crisis brought about by a dollar collapse to have any effect on this "Perma-frost" condition. This is why the populace is not up in arms politically. They have been anaesthetized by the government. It's insidious and will be difficult from which to break out. Best always. PM
In inflation adjusted terms haven’t we been in a continuous recession since March 2020? All of these government numbers that have been showing an expanding economy since 2021 show an expansion only because the numbers are all significantly inflated. GDP growth is the worst example. Most dollar denominated charts that are adjusted for inflation will show a negative slope. I am puzzled by the ongoing debate about whether we are in a recession or not.
Government "spending" aka transfer payments (now 30% of the "economy") is conveniently included in GDP, thereby allowing GDP to "grow" in line with the deficit. This is scamboogery to the 9th degree. The government can claim a "healthy" economy so long as they can "print". The vast majority don't see through the charade, and are in "just take what you can get" mode. We're toast without a major collapse, which, sorry to say, is our only way out. Best always. PM
“P.S. For new readers, I’ve taken the liberty of republishing my original article on the Sahm Rule from November of last year. Please note the Official List is from November as well, and does not include the latest prices, gains, trailing stops, or buy-up-to limits. The next and current Official List will be published in my weekly update tomorrow “
Slogan: Nothing Runs Like a Deere (except for US Jobs running out of US)
John Deere has recently announced plans to move some of its manufacturing operations from the United States to Mexico. Here are the key details of this breaking news:
Relocation of production: John Deere is planning to move the manufacturing of mid-frame skid steer loaders and compact track loaders from its Dubuque, Iowa facility to a new plant in Ramos, Mexico.
Timeline: The new facility in Mexico is expected to be operational by 2026.
Layoffs: As a result of this move and other factors, John Deere has announced significant layoffs in the Midwest:
Approximately 610 production workers in Illinois and Iowa will lose their jobs by the end of summer 2024.
This includes 280 employees in East Moline, Illinois, 230 in Davenport, Iowa, and about 100 in Dubuque, Iowa.
Earlier in 2024, the company had already announced plans to lay off 650 Iowa employees.
Reasons for the move: John Deere cites several factors for this decision:
Rising operational costs and declining market demand.
The need to balance workforce needs in a tight labor market.
Freeing up floor space in Waterloo for manufacturing new products.
Economic context: The move comes amid challenging conditions in the agricultural sector:
USDA forecasts a continued decline in farm sector income, from $155.9 billion in 2023 to $116.1 billion in 2024.
Lower crop prices have led to excess inventory of tractors and combines.
Cost considerations: The move to Mexico is likely driven by lower labor costs:
American workers often make three to four times more than their Mexican counterparts.
Health insurance costs for U.S. employees are significantly higher than in Mexico.
Ongoing operations: Despite the move, John Deere will continue some operations in Dubuque, including manufacturing large-frame skid steer loaders, backhoes, and various types of dozers and loaders.
This move by John Deere is part of a broader trend of U.S. companies relocating manufacturing to Mexico, taking advantage of lower costs while maintaining proximity to the U.S. market
As Alfred Korzybski said, “The map is not the territory”. Be wary of all sources and all statistics.
Following the 2008 disaster it took the US 10 years to get the unemployment rate below 4%. By the time it dropped below 5% the FED had already claimed success.
Given the miniscule increases yet below 4% this does not feel like a turning tide
for the unemployment rate and an excuse to lower rates. Some would even claim a UR around 5% is perfectly acceptable and not a signal for the FED to develop a knee jerk reaction to lowering rates.
A few UR statistics commonly overlooked in the US are...
a. The number of under-employed people who want to be under-employed (my wife).
b. The number of eligible adult workers who have no reason to go to work (pockets are already deep).
c. The number of eligible adult workers who just don't want to go to work (just lazy).
All of the above can be seen regularly in the restaurants and coffee shops
discussing their daily trials and tribulations to whomever will listen.
All of the above factor into the unemployment rate which is to say the real rate is likely something below the existing calculation. To me that does not add up
What is "unemployment"? It is chimera. Unemployment figures only factor in those actively looking for work. Since 50% of the populace is on the dole in some form or another, we can never expect REAL employment analysis. True employment data should be the number of ALL working age individuals in the country as the employment pool. ALL individuals 18-65. Divide those paying taxes by that pool number to get percentage of employed. Subtract the percentage of employed from 100 to get the REAL, ACTUAL unemployment figure. You'll find it's closer to 33% and maybe higher. We are so distanced from reality in this country as to qualify to be legally incompetent, possibly insane. Government has done this to us. Best always. PM
So true. Another illusion of unemployment is observed by the amount of highway traffic on any given Friday. One can already assume those who claim to be employed are only working a 4 day week. So what does under employment really mean?
Only to alert you guys that the last report they send to their subscribes (3/07), there wasn't any EQT and PBR-A stocks on the "Oficial List of Stocks". I don't what you guys are smoking but don't try to trick us. We are watching your steps.
Confused by today’s (7/9) portfolio: I sold EQT and PBR-A based on TD stops, now in portfolio again; CLCO, PARXF, TFPM do not appear, did not see any notification to stop out for these stocks. I follow TD notifications carefully, is today’s portfolio a misprint? Would appreciate clarification.
I ditched out of a "major" metropolitan area for a socially conservative rural community in 1990. I did this, because I could see what was coming. Over time off-shoring, NAFTA, and the explosion in government "entitlement" programs (vote-buying) decimated this community and hundreds of thousands like it. The result? This area and similar places, mostly in "red" areas, are already in permanent recession, and the economy tanking will have little effect here. Many people have adopted and adapted to a non-discretionary income lifestyle and don't pay any attention anymore to any economic development, with the exception, perhaps, the price of gasoline and fast food, for which there is no government subsidy YET.. There is little private, individual ownership remaining as a result. It will take a governmental crisis brought about by a dollar collapse to have any effect on this "Perma-frost" condition. This is why the populace is not up in arms politically. They have been anaesthetized by the government. It's insidious and will be difficult from which to break out. Best always. PM
Would be better for Tom to not post outdated info, many people too busy to read everything and just go to the list.
On another matter on why deficits don't matter here is an article by quoted Claudia Sahm.
https://www.stripes.com/opinion/2024-01-16/us-debt-34-trillion-12693431.html
If this is what they really think, Good luck...
The one glitch in unemployment rate and other government developed statistics is whether they are re"lie"able or lies.
Tom,
In inflation adjusted terms haven’t we been in a continuous recession since March 2020? All of these government numbers that have been showing an expanding economy since 2021 show an expansion only because the numbers are all significantly inflated. GDP growth is the worst example. Most dollar denominated charts that are adjusted for inflation will show a negative slope. I am puzzled by the ongoing debate about whether we are in a recession or not.
Government "spending" aka transfer payments (now 30% of the "economy") is conveniently included in GDP, thereby allowing GDP to "grow" in line with the deficit. This is scamboogery to the 9th degree. The government can claim a "healthy" economy so long as they can "print". The vast majority don't see through the charade, and are in "just take what you can get" mode. We're toast without a major collapse, which, sorry to say, is our only way out. Best always. PM
Hi Tom,
I am a bit confused, the official list of stocks which I copy almost every week
is different from list I coped today.
We were told to sale PRB-A in April and I haven't see DAC listed in several months.
Please check back on your earlier lists and you well see what I am talking about.
Thanks,
“P.S. For new readers, I’ve taken the liberty of republishing my original article on the Sahm Rule from November of last year. Please note the Official List is from November as well, and does not include the latest prices, gains, trailing stops, or buy-up-to limits. The next and current Official List will be published in my weekly update tomorrow “
Yes I sold Petrobas on instructions
Slogan: Nothing Runs Like a Deere (except for US Jobs running out of US)
John Deere has recently announced plans to move some of its manufacturing operations from the United States to Mexico. Here are the key details of this breaking news:
Relocation of production: John Deere is planning to move the manufacturing of mid-frame skid steer loaders and compact track loaders from its Dubuque, Iowa facility to a new plant in Ramos, Mexico.
Timeline: The new facility in Mexico is expected to be operational by 2026.
Layoffs: As a result of this move and other factors, John Deere has announced significant layoffs in the Midwest:
Approximately 610 production workers in Illinois and Iowa will lose their jobs by the end of summer 2024.
This includes 280 employees in East Moline, Illinois, 230 in Davenport, Iowa, and about 100 in Dubuque, Iowa.
Earlier in 2024, the company had already announced plans to lay off 650 Iowa employees.
Reasons for the move: John Deere cites several factors for this decision:
Rising operational costs and declining market demand.
The need to balance workforce needs in a tight labor market.
Freeing up floor space in Waterloo for manufacturing new products.
Economic context: The move comes amid challenging conditions in the agricultural sector:
USDA forecasts a continued decline in farm sector income, from $155.9 billion in 2023 to $116.1 billion in 2024.
Lower crop prices have led to excess inventory of tractors and combines.
Cost considerations: The move to Mexico is likely driven by lower labor costs:
American workers often make three to four times more than their Mexican counterparts.
Health insurance costs for U.S. employees are significantly higher than in Mexico.
Ongoing operations: Despite the move, John Deere will continue some operations in Dubuque, including manufacturing large-frame skid steer loaders, backhoes, and various types of dozers and loaders.
This move by John Deere is part of a broader trend of U.S. companies relocating manufacturing to Mexico, taking advantage of lower costs while maintaining proximity to the U.S. market
As Alfred Korzybski said, “The map is not the territory”. Be wary of all sources and all statistics.
Following the 2008 disaster it took the US 10 years to get the unemployment rate below 4%. By the time it dropped below 5% the FED had already claimed success.
Given the miniscule increases yet below 4% this does not feel like a turning tide
for the unemployment rate and an excuse to lower rates. Some would even claim a UR around 5% is perfectly acceptable and not a signal for the FED to develop a knee jerk reaction to lowering rates.
A few UR statistics commonly overlooked in the US are...
a. The number of under-employed people who want to be under-employed (my wife).
b. The number of eligible adult workers who have no reason to go to work (pockets are already deep).
c. The number of eligible adult workers who just don't want to go to work (just lazy).
All of the above can be seen regularly in the restaurants and coffee shops
discussing their daily trials and tribulations to whomever will listen.
All of the above factor into the unemployment rate which is to say the real rate is likely something below the existing calculation. To me that does not add up
to an impetus to cut rates.
What is "unemployment"? It is chimera. Unemployment figures only factor in those actively looking for work. Since 50% of the populace is on the dole in some form or another, we can never expect REAL employment analysis. True employment data should be the number of ALL working age individuals in the country as the employment pool. ALL individuals 18-65. Divide those paying taxes by that pool number to get percentage of employed. Subtract the percentage of employed from 100 to get the REAL, ACTUAL unemployment figure. You'll find it's closer to 33% and maybe higher. We are so distanced from reality in this country as to qualify to be legally incompetent, possibly insane. Government has done this to us. Best always. PM
So true. Another illusion of unemployment is observed by the amount of highway traffic on any given Friday. One can already assume those who claim to be employed are only working a 4 day week. So what does under employment really mean?
Obfuscation.
Only to alert you guys that the last report they send to their subscribes (3/07), there wasn't any EQT and PBR-A stocks on the "Oficial List of Stocks". I don't what you guys are smoking but don't try to trick us. We are watching your steps.
Confused by today’s (7/9) portfolio: I sold EQT and PBR-A based on TD stops, now in portfolio again; CLCO, PARXF, TFPM do not appear, did not see any notification to stop out for these stocks. I follow TD notifications carefully, is today’s portfolio a misprint? Would appreciate clarification.
If you look carefully this is a reprint of Tom's Nov 2023 article.
Thanks Andre, I did miss that. Don
I presume an old list?!?
not to be missed interview w/ rick rule: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2020/01/16/titans-in-mining-an-interview-with-rick-rule-part-i.html