The Feral Pigs of Inflation

The US financial system — under the spell of its ‘printing press’ money — is a debt machine. And it runs on credit...and oil. As credit is added, the economy grows...but the debt grows faster.

The RMS Titanic, pictured here in Belfast, Ireland, sank on this day in 1912 off the coast of Newfoundland during her maiden voyage, with 1,635 souls lost at sea.

Wednesday, April 15th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Baltimore, Maryland

‘April is the cruelest month.’

—T.S. Eliot

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First, comes cruel news from Ireland. CBC:

Fuel protests in Ireland continue as pumps run dry, prices rise amid war in Middle East

Ger Hyland, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association, who is acting on behalf of some protesters, said he empathizes with their plight.

“They’re hard-working business people, and they’re just trying to survive and keep their business afloat, the same as any of the rest of us here at these negotiations,” he said.

“We can’t continue to do business with the cost of fuel, cost of wages, everything,” [Paddy] Murray told RTE. “We need somebody to help. It’s the government’s here, like, to represent us. You know, do your job. We’re the working lads that keep everything going. We’re the working lads that pay taxes.”

More than a third of the 1,500 service stations had run out of fuel on Saturday, and that number was expected to grow dramatically if the roadblocks remain,

Uh oh. Ireland is an island of calm and sanity in a troubled world. Not too hot. Not too cold. Not too dry and not too wet. From our house, we look down on a castle built in the 13th century...and a church abandoned in the 1970s. Beyond them lie the tidal, rhythmic wash of the Blackwater River, with its ebbing and flowing…just as it has done for thousands of years.

Ireland is a republic that minds its own business. No troops in the Middle East, the Far East, or the Near East...no troops east of Eden. And no imminent financial crisis. Ireland’s national debt to GDP ratio is only 31% — almost exactly where the US ratio was 50 years ago.

Fuel prices have gone up on the emerald isle as they have everywhere else. But Ireland doesn’t get its oil from the Gulf. Its supplies come mainly from Norway. Oil is, shall we say, ‘liquid.’ And if its price rises in one place, the price tends to go up, like sea level, everywhere. So, even though Donald Trump says the US ‘has plenty of oil,’ it still goes up in price, everywhere, as the US blockade of the Iranian blockade continues.

And therein hangs more cruelty. It is a tale many tongues will eventually tell.

The US financial system — under the spell of its ‘printing press’ money — is a debt machine. And it runs on credit...and oil. As credit is added, the economy grows...but the debt grows faster, as it takes more and more new credit to produce a new dollar of GDP. But stop adding new credit, or simply raise the price of oil, and it is like letting the air out of a balloon; it falls to the ground.

People do not choose war...at least, not like they would choose a baked chicken rather than a salami sandwich. War chooses them...coming to them dressed as the best alternative. Not necessarily best for ‘The People,’ but best for the people who control ‘The People.’

And when those people have diddled the economy with phony money and fake interest rates...to the point where it has more debt than it can plausibly pay...what’s the most attractive way ahead?

War...and inflation. The UN says that the two blockades could put 32.5 million people, worldwide, below the poverty line. The World Bank says it could double current price inflation.

But so what?

The real choice is the one we’ve written about many times — inflate or die. Since the mid-’80s, US debt has grown four times faster than the GDP that supports it. Either credit (debt) growth continues...or the credits (the value of the debt) collapse. As we reported yesterday, US debt is headed to $40 trillion...with interest payments of $2 trillion annually. Add the costs of an unwinnable war, and deficits could soar to $3 trillion.

Where is the money to cover such costs? It doesn’t exist. But who’s going to say so? And who can stay in power with the bubble economy dying?

What to do? Cry havoc and let the dogs of war! And let loose the feral pigs of inflation, too.

That is the real meaning of the war in the Gulf. It’s not about oil. It’s not about ‘the tolls’. It’s not about ‘the bomb.’ It’s about the need for war...to amuse the gods…appease some very powerful special interests -- and inflate the US economy.

Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at Donald Trump’s new budget proposal...and see where that takes us.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Do markets think the war is over? Bloomberg’s Spot Dollar Index has given up almost all the gains it made since the war in Iran began. The index is on a 7-day losing streak.