The Biggest Loser

If Ms. Harris wins, voters will get what they expect. If Mr. Trump wins, on the other hand, they will get what they deserve.

Source: Getty Images

Friday, November 1^st, 2024 

Bill Bonner, writing today from Baltimore, Maryland 

Never in history has there been such a vivid contrast between the brilliance of so many and the utter uselessness of so few. The American experiment is still alive and kicking, but there is a cancer in Washington that is out of control and may soon threaten to kill the host — whoever wins on Tuesday... 

—Matthew Syed 

We did our ad hominem analysis yesterday. The two candidates are opposites. One is empty... and ready to do as she is told. The other is full of grievances and mischief. Both are rascals.  

And the poor voters! We can just imagine the conversations coming down the pike. You voted for him? You voted for her? What were you thinking?  

It’s a shame they can’t both lose. The long-suffering electorate is damned if it does... and damned if it doesn’t. Either way, it’s the public that loses. Today’s mission: a guess about who the biggest loser will be.  

Here’s the Executive Summary: 

A common theme in the press is that the nation is ‘deeply divided.’ Mr. Trump is accused of trying to widen the division. Ms. Harris says she will ‘bring the country together.’ 

And yet, the two candidates agree on the fundamentals. Neither offers a balanced budget. Both want to continue spending money they don’t have on programs that most people neither want nor need. Both support the empire of The West and will put US troops in harm’s way for reasons that have nothing to do with US national security. Both claim to know when an abortion should be permissible. Neither thinks the US Constitution should be allowed to stand in his way.  

This is also the ‘center’ position…or the ‘New York Times’ view, the creed of the ruling elites. Ms. Harris represents it. Mr. Trump claims to be against it. If Ms. Harris wins, voters will get what they expect. If Mr. Trump wins, on the other hand, they will get what they deserve.  

On the surface, Trump and Harris proposals are very different. We asked AI to summarize them for us: 

Kamala Harris: 

• Taxes: Harris aims to raise taxes on high-income earners and big businesses while providing tax cuts and credits for middle- and lower-income households. 

• Inflation and Cost of Living: She plans to reduce food and housing costs, ban price-gouging on groceries, and support first-time home buyers. 

• Trade: Harris supports targeted tariffs, maintaining some of the tariffs introduced during the Biden administration. 

• Climate and Energy: She has been involved in passing significant climate legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which supports renewable energy. 

Donald Trump: 

• Taxes: Trump proposes across-the-board tax cuts, including making permanent the tax cuts from his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. 

• Inflation and Cost of Living: He promises to lower energy costs through increased oil drilling and to reduce housing costs by deporting undocumented immigrants. 

• Trade: Trump plans to impose new tariffs on most foreign goods, particularly from China. 

• Climate and Energy: He advocates for expanding Arctic drilling and rolling back environmental protections. 

In short, Ms. Harris will continue today’s democratic policies, more or less. Mr. Trump meanwhile would put some kinks in the rope. But both will pull the nation towards financial catastrophe. The real problem is that the feds spend too much money. A debt crisis is coming soon. And neither candidate seems to know or care. 

In addition to extending his tax cuts, Trump has suggested excusing government and military people from income taxes. He has even proposed to eliminate income taxes altogether, replacing the revenue with tariffs. In theory, that would exchange a tax on earnings with a tax on spending. This would be great for the rich, who earn relatively much and spend relatively little. And since it would punish consumption rather than savings or investment, in the long run it might actually lead to greater capital formation and more wealth. 

But in practice, Congress might go along with the tax cuts... but it would stumble on the revenue side. Debt would grow faster than ever... forcing up interest rates and probably triggering an inflationary depression. 

And it would be a field day in the swamp, with lobbyists and political donors darting and swishing like a school of piranhas on a dead cow. Exceptions, special side deals, preferences and exonerations — the Swamp would grow. The economy would shrink. Outside of the greater Washington area, people would be poorer. 

Trade would go down. Prices would go up. And the discombobulation of trying to switch a $6+ trillion federal budget to tariff-based funding would be one for the record books... a sad story of chaos and poverty. 

Either way, Trump or Harris, the main fruit of the 2024 election will be bitter disappointment.  Harris won’t bring the divided nation back together -- not with more of what drove them apart. And as for the MAGA crowd, their man is not the disruptor they think he is. He won’t change what needs to be changed. And what he might change would probably make things worse.   

Regards, 

Bill Bonner 

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