The best and the brightest

The fantasy of American democracy is that the election process weeds out the dopes, jackasses and frauds. A single visit to the Capitol when Congress is in session is enough to dispel that myth.

Source: Getty Images

Monday, May 13, 2024 

Bill Bonner, writing today from Dublin, Ireland

It was a beautiful weekend in Ireland, the first warm and sunny weekend of the year. The flowers are in bloom. The grass is green and high. The sea sparkles in the distance and the cows mosey across the fields. 

“This has been the rainiest winter and spring I can remember,” says a neighbor.  

But yesterday, it all seemed worthwhile. Nowhere is prettier than Ireland on a sunny day. 

“Enjoy it while you can,” the neighbor adds. “Gather ye rosebuds, and all that. Joie de beaver... heh heh.” 

(It took us a while to understand that last remark, a bawdy corruption of the French, ‘joie de vivre’... or joy of living.) 

The tone in St. Mary’s Cathedral in Youghal was more serious.  

“We don’t control the weather. We don’t vote on whether we breathe or not. There are some things we’re better off not deciding for ourselves,” the priest explained. 

He was commenting on a section of the Bible (Acts of the Apostles) where it tells us how the apostles replaced Jesus after he was crucified:  

And they cast lots... and the lot fell on Matthias; and he was added to the eleven apostles. 

“It might be better if we chose our political leaders that way too,” he continued, “rather than have to listen to all the election news every day.” 

The gist of today’s comment: He was right. 

Compared to the US, elections in Ireland are fairly dignified and civilized.  

Ireland is smaller. The issues are more readily understood. And the Irish still have faith in their leaders, more or less. 

Fools and Knaves

​But in America elections have become vicious contests, often between fools and knaves... cutthroats and cads. All the voters can do is to try to decide which one is worse. A national lottery, choosing our politicians as Matthias was chosen — on the basis of chance, rather than fraud — would almost certainly be better. 

Here at Bonner Private Research, we steer clear of politics. But politics doesn’t steer clear of us.  

Joe Biden will raise taxes. Forbes: 

Under Biden Tax Plan, Capital Gains Tax Will Exceed 50% In 11 States 

He’s also planning to spike up tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Bloomberg: 

President Joe Biden will quadruple tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and sharply increase levies for other key industries this week, unveiling the measures at a White House event framed as a defense of American workers, people familiar with the matter said. 

Not only will Americans pay more for their wheels, the US auto industry – protected by the feds – will become even less competitive. David Fickling:  

Like birds on isolated islands, America’s carmakers are evolving to suit an oddly congenial environment — one where they can grow big and bloated in the absence of competition from hungry rivals. Gradually, they’ll lose the ability to fly. Consumers who’d like to get their hands on affordable, clean and innovative cars will be the ones to lose out. 

Donald Trump, meanwhile, says will increase tariffs on all Chinese-made goods... thus raising prices on almost everything. He also says he will cut taxes. Bloomberg: 

“Instead of a Biden tax hike, I’ll give you a Trump middle class, upper class, lower class, business class big tax cut,” Trump said at a rally Saturday in Wildwood on the New Jersey shore.  

Lower rates and lower taxes were Trump’s formula for his first term, but as we’ve seen, without spending cuts they will simply increase debt and end up imposing the worst tax of all — the ‘inflation tax.’ 

​​Neither candidate seems concerned by the big challenges facing the country — too much debt and too much war. And at least part of the explanation is the election process itself. Candidates court big money sponsors by promising a good return on investment to their donors. And the big money doesn’t take chances. It invests in both leading candidates... making sure the government continues to waste taxpayers’ money in the desired way. ​ 

The fantasy of American democracy is that the election process weeds out the dopes, jackasses and frauds. A single visit to the Capitol when Congress is in session is enough to dispel that myth. 

Instead of raising up the best and brightest, it does the very opposite. It elevates the big mouths and mountebanks... those most willing to peddle influence in exchange for campaign money.  

A lottery would be more honest. It would spare the nation the cost of elections... and crescendo of BS that goes along with them. And almost any citizen, chosen at random, and not beholden to the Established Elite, would probably do less damage. 

But wait. There is another candidate in the presidential derby. RFK, Jr. Is he really better than random? A reformed drug addict. Former brain worm victim. Is he seriously aiming for the White House?  

Or is he really just a spoiler? If so, for whom? Biden? Trump? And what if he fractures the electoral college vote... so that the election ends with no clear winner? 

Tune in tomorrow...  

Regards, 

Bill Bonner 

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General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals

Research Note

If the bond market is stingy and you’ve run out of actual income to borrow—with wage earners pinched by higher inflation and lower real wages—there’s only one thing left to do: tax wealth.

The image above is taken from a report published by the Biden Administration in March. It proposes a 25% tax on all wealth (including unrealized capital gains) for any taxpayer with a net worth greater than $100 million (for now).

The entire report—dubbed ‘The Greenbook’ by the Department of the Treasury—is a grab bag of over 100 proposals to increase government tax receipts through higher tax rates, fewer loopholes, and more ‘investment’ in compliance. For example, a 30% excise tax on electricity used in the mining of digital assets is proposed on the grounds that digital asset mining has ‘negative environmental effects and can have environmental justice implications.’

The Administration claims the proposals could generate an additional $4.3 to $4.9 trillion in revenues over the next ten years and reduce the growth of the deficit by $3.2 trillion over the same period. A divided Congress is unlikely to enact any of the measures before the election in November.