The feds can’t stop spending. And they can’t afford to let interest rates rise. Look for more intervention...more debt, and a dollar that shrinks like cotton candy.
The problem is for us "peons" we have no alternative. And, Trump and the rest of the "elites" do not care what happens to us. They are solely focused on what happens to them. Hopium isn't a strategy for a cruel bubble-bursting event. Us "peons' have no idea how along America is. The world has turned against us and our US$ and military are showing now miserable they are. There is no strategy for the debt bubble and the derivatives bubble makes the US$40T look like child's play. And there is no fix for the military - American hegemony on the world's seas has come to an end. There is no going back. No fix. And, even IF the U.S. had the manufacturing ability it doesn't have the raw materials (rare earths that have been processed). No plan for the future. No strategy to right America. Us "peons" don't get it. Going to be ugly, Folks. More than any of us can imagine.
Here's what I know: I spend $1000 like I used to spend $100, and I spend $100 like I used to spend $10, and I spend $10 like I used to spend $1. In the spring of 1969 (as my junior year of high school was coming to a close), I remember going to the McDonald's on Bardstown Road in Louisville, across from the Mid-City Mall, where I bought lunch. There was no drive-thru; I had to park and walk in. Once there, some cheery girls my age (bonus!) competed for my order, which was a Big Mac, an order of fries (only one size), and a non-carbonated orangeade. They handed me a white bag, I paid 87 cents and retired to my car, consuming my lunch as a I drove home, no small feat, as my car was a standard-shift "three on the tree", bench-seat, non a/c Chevy with no cup holders. That same lunch costs $10 now, and I park my grossly over-equipped and over-priced car to walk in, avoiding the so-called drive-thru which is a backed-up nightmare, order on a kiosk, and stand around waiting interminably for my number on the board to show up, telling me I'm being "served". I go in rarely now. I wonder why. Best always. PM
In 1968, I could purchase a cup of coffee at the Brown Jug Cafe in Ann Arbor, MI for $0.05 a cup. Refills cost another 5 cents. Today, I order a cup of coffee at a local Cafe and pay $3.95 to $5.25 for a cup of coffee with unlimited refills. So in about 50 years a cup of coffee has sky raocketed in price.
Also students graduating from college with a science degree (Engineering degree) start at a wage higher than I was paid as a Vice President of a 100 hundred million dollar division when I retired in the early 2000's. Duh?
In 1968 I was 18; the minimum wage in Canada was $1.35.
I was setting chokers behind a logging D6 cat for big money: $2.39/hr.
Gas was what, 25 cents a gallon? Ten gallons for 1 hour of manual work.
What will anything be next year? BPR looks at decades and centuries of history, and says "no clue." So safety first.
Maximum safety mode. Watch the aging amusement park rides from the ground, or just listen for the crash while you barbecue and grow fruits & veggies in your back yard -- wearing swim gear so your tan looks like you just got back from the South Pacific beaches.
We host pot-luck dinners, games, and music with uplifting friends. Kitchen parties the Newfys (Newfoundlanders) call them.
Remember your parents' and grandparents' memories of the "Great Depression." Little money, lots of good times with good people.
And I know smart, happy people who talk about, and still eat, some of the nutritious and delicious "weeds" we now spray poison on in our lawns and driveways. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkNKbzRxiE
That's how the future looks from the rock this frog is sitting on.
Bill, would be interesting to run a survey giving subscribers a choice of events that will pop the bubble so we can ascertain the uncommon wisdom of the group. You listed most of the events in today’s post.
Doom and gloom. Nuclear annihilation, oil shortages, inflation, deflation, no enemies, everyone's an enemy, more alphabet agencies than alphabet, spying on the citizenry, whistleblowers punished, wars ad infinitum.
The further back we look into history, the more we realize it hasn't been just this administration's fault. Or the one before it. Or the one before that.
The majority of them weren't there for the people. They were there for themselves.
The key?
They've been getting better at keeping the show running.
Buying back their own debt? The mechanism changes, but the instinct doesn't. Whenever the system comes under enough pressure, somebody finds another valve to open.
You've always been right about that, Bill.
Inflate or die.
And given the choice, they'll inflate. Keep the IV line connected and dripping. Keep the patient alive another day, another year, another decade.
And somehow, they keep managing to do it.
But AI is where I part company with you.
I agree that much of the money being poured into AI today may never earn an adequate return. Some of these valuations are ridiculous. Some companies will disappear. Some investors will make fortunes. Others will lose their shirts. And probably their homes.
We've seen that movie before too.
Railroads. Automobiles. Radio. Airlines. The Internet.
A technological revolution does not require every investor in it to make money. The bubble can burst while the revolution continues.
And AI, I think, is very much here to stay. Whether you or I like it or not.
Personally, I like it. Curiosity unbounded.
The ability to ask a question at midnight that would once have required a library, a research assistant, several specialists and perhaps weeks of work. And begin exploring it immediately.
I may be the odd duck in the room. But then again, I haven't exactly walked the normal path all my life either.
The bubble can burst. The revolution doesn't have to.
Well, actions have consequences. Today’s bubble is a result of all the previous actions, that were likely not made for the benefit of the average peon. Today’s world is awash with sharp objects. It’s not a great time to be a bubble… or to live in Bubbleland.
I would imagine the trip from 5%-6% will quite a bit faster than the trip from 4-5%. Whatever is a money printer to do. It only took a month to add the last Trillion to the debt. So far in his 6 years of being the Don, the Don has added 20 trillion to the debt. Leave it to a “business man” addicted to debt to keep his addiction rolling on a monumental and greatest debt binge unseen by any nation in the history of the world, ever. No really, nothing like it, ever.
Does Bill Bonner sound like he thinks King Trump is deliberately TRYING to destroy America or the world? I don't think POTUS is doing that, or that BPR thinks that that is Trump's intention.
Trump is just doing the same thing Reagan and Jimmy Carter, etc., have done - though perhaps with more obvious ostentatious greed.
Don't worry! Scott Bessent learned his trade under MAGA nemesis George Soros. He made a fortune shorting the British Pound and will soon make us all rich by shorting the US dollar.
Ok there are many reasons our man made and historically over inflated bubble will pop. Many, many will lose much of their paper money. But to say that one of sharp objects capable of popping the bubble is Trump's health is total TDS. There is no documented credible evidence of any health issues however, there is much credible evidence that he is healthy. Bill's evidence is a visible bruise on his hand based on unknown etiology and as seen in a photo, and a suspected swollen leg predicated on a picture of a suspected swollen ankle as reported by the legacy press...pleeese.
You are probably right that there is no documented creditable evidence of any health issues
But surely you agree that Trump is mentally unhealthy.
His conduct throughout his life has been distinguished by an array of abnormal deportment; decisions all consciously made but which were and continue to be triggered by acute selfishness or by excessive presumptuousness, or both.
Let's face it: Being a convicted tax thief and sexual predator; documented philanderer trivializing his vows to his multiple wives; having made and bragged about making a half dozen mis-allocations of resources entrusted to him by banks; abusing the Constitution and impulsively attacking another country no threat to us are not the hallmarks of a mentally healthy man.
So, Jimmy, what make-believe land of naivety do you live in? Almost 5 decades of sponsoring global islamic terrorism is, to you, no threat?
Jimmy, what would it take, for you - as Ann Landers would say - to “wake up and smell the coffee?” A nuclear strike? A dirty bomb? Clearly decades of standard Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks isn’t enough to open your eyes to reality of the situation.
Surely you recognize that the ayatollahs will use a nuke when they get one. Mean it when they say Death to America. Death to the Great Satan and the Little Satan. Surely you agree.
Of course I don't want Iran to go nuclear. No sane person would wish its religious fundamentalists to have this awful capability.
If ever -- somehow, someway -- Iranian fundamentalists acquire this capability, then as with the USSR (and now Russia), China and North Korea (which recently rebuffed DJT), all we can hope is that MAD restrains them (Mutually Assured Destruction).
Alternatively, in a future Administration, perhaps clever diplomats might be able to create a Nuclear Free Zone in the Middle East.
It would be tricky but not outside the realm of possibility.
Probably require a US guarantee of Israel's security in exchange for the removal of its nuclear bombs (made possible by the theft of US technology, a theft in which Israel's current PM participated).
Jimm, all that you said is true. However, such behavior does not constitute a physical health problem as Bill suggested. Nor does it constitute a mental health problem. Rather it strongly suggests an unethical and. morally depraved narcissist, which unfortunately may be plus given his job description.
Easy, Patrick. Enjoy you vacation. You don't have to defend Donnie at every turn. You will admit that if he were your brother-in-law when he cheated on your pregnant sister you would love to go upside his head.
I only have a few stocks, les than 20% of the IRA. The other two Items in the IRA allow me to relax and watch the circus roll by. Of course, this is bad news for the country as a whole but I don't see any good news ahead.
The problem is for us "peons" we have no alternative. And, Trump and the rest of the "elites" do not care what happens to us. They are solely focused on what happens to them. Hopium isn't a strategy for a cruel bubble-bursting event. Us "peons' have no idea how along America is. The world has turned against us and our US$ and military are showing now miserable they are. There is no strategy for the debt bubble and the derivatives bubble makes the US$40T look like child's play. And there is no fix for the military - American hegemony on the world's seas has come to an end. There is no going back. No fix. And, even IF the U.S. had the manufacturing ability it doesn't have the raw materials (rare earths that have been processed). No plan for the future. No strategy to right America. Us "peons" don't get it. Going to be ugly, Folks. More than any of us can imagine.
Stansberry says 2029 is our appointment with destiny. We'll see. Best always. PM
Maybe sooner!
Jim
Either that, OR we've got a lot further to go, which is a rather unsettling prospect. Best always. PM
Either that or we're nowhere near as bad as will need to get... (ouch). Best always. PM
And it was 2024, then 2026…
FedGov financing its debt with more debt; you have to laugh. Take two black pills and call me in the morning.
Here's what I know: I spend $1000 like I used to spend $100, and I spend $100 like I used to spend $10, and I spend $10 like I used to spend $1. In the spring of 1969 (as my junior year of high school was coming to a close), I remember going to the McDonald's on Bardstown Road in Louisville, across from the Mid-City Mall, where I bought lunch. There was no drive-thru; I had to park and walk in. Once there, some cheery girls my age (bonus!) competed for my order, which was a Big Mac, an order of fries (only one size), and a non-carbonated orangeade. They handed me a white bag, I paid 87 cents and retired to my car, consuming my lunch as a I drove home, no small feat, as my car was a standard-shift "three on the tree", bench-seat, non a/c Chevy with no cup holders. That same lunch costs $10 now, and I park my grossly over-equipped and over-priced car to walk in, avoiding the so-called drive-thru which is a backed-up nightmare, order on a kiosk, and stand around waiting interminably for my number on the board to show up, telling me I'm being "served". I go in rarely now. I wonder why. Best always. PM
In 1968, I could purchase a cup of coffee at the Brown Jug Cafe in Ann Arbor, MI for $0.05 a cup. Refills cost another 5 cents. Today, I order a cup of coffee at a local Cafe and pay $3.95 to $5.25 for a cup of coffee with unlimited refills. So in about 50 years a cup of coffee has sky raocketed in price.
Also students graduating from college with a science degree (Engineering degree) start at a wage higher than I was paid as a Vice President of a 100 hundred million dollar division when I retired in the early 2000's. Duh?
In 1968 I was 18; the minimum wage in Canada was $1.35.
I was setting chokers behind a logging D6 cat for big money: $2.39/hr.
Gas was what, 25 cents a gallon? Ten gallons for 1 hour of manual work.
What will anything be next year? BPR looks at decades and centuries of history, and says "no clue." So safety first.
Maximum safety mode. Watch the aging amusement park rides from the ground, or just listen for the crash while you barbecue and grow fruits & veggies in your back yard -- wearing swim gear so your tan looks like you just got back from the South Pacific beaches.
We host pot-luck dinners, games, and music with uplifting friends. Kitchen parties the Newfys (Newfoundlanders) call them.
Remember your parents' and grandparents' memories of the "Great Depression." Little money, lots of good times with good people.
And I know smart, happy people who talk about, and still eat, some of the nutritious and delicious "weeds" we now spray poison on in our lawns and driveways. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgkNKbzRxiE
That's how the future looks from the rock this frog is sitting on.
The thrilling days of yester year!
Jim
Bill, would be interesting to run a survey giving subscribers a choice of events that will pop the bubble so we can ascertain the uncommon wisdom of the group. You listed most of the events in today’s post.
It's been the same story for the past 70 years.
Doom and gloom. Nuclear annihilation, oil shortages, inflation, deflation, no enemies, everyone's an enemy, more alphabet agencies than alphabet, spying on the citizenry, whistleblowers punished, wars ad infinitum.
The further back we look into history, the more we realize it hasn't been just this administration's fault. Or the one before it. Or the one before that.
The majority of them weren't there for the people. They were there for themselves.
The key?
They've been getting better at keeping the show running.
Buying back their own debt? The mechanism changes, but the instinct doesn't. Whenever the system comes under enough pressure, somebody finds another valve to open.
You've always been right about that, Bill.
Inflate or die.
And given the choice, they'll inflate. Keep the IV line connected and dripping. Keep the patient alive another day, another year, another decade.
And somehow, they keep managing to do it.
But AI is where I part company with you.
I agree that much of the money being poured into AI today may never earn an adequate return. Some of these valuations are ridiculous. Some companies will disappear. Some investors will make fortunes. Others will lose their shirts. And probably their homes.
We've seen that movie before too.
Railroads. Automobiles. Radio. Airlines. The Internet.
A technological revolution does not require every investor in it to make money. The bubble can burst while the revolution continues.
And AI, I think, is very much here to stay. Whether you or I like it or not.
Personally, I like it. Curiosity unbounded.
The ability to ask a question at midnight that would once have required a library, a research assistant, several specialists and perhaps weeks of work. And begin exploring it immediately.
I may be the odd duck in the room. But then again, I haven't exactly walked the normal path all my life either.
The bubble can burst. The revolution doesn't have to.
https://lucaskandia.substack.com/p/the-bubble-can-burst-the-revolution
I agree, Lucas.
That is (I believe) what Maximum Safety Mode is for: being ready, willing, and ABLE to continue being part of the solutions during good times or bad.
Well, actions have consequences. Today’s bubble is a result of all the previous actions, that were likely not made for the benefit of the average peon. Today’s world is awash with sharp objects. It’s not a great time to be a bubble… or to live in Bubbleland.
I would imagine the trip from 5%-6% will quite a bit faster than the trip from 4-5%. Whatever is a money printer to do. It only took a month to add the last Trillion to the debt. So far in his 6 years of being the Don, the Don has added 20 trillion to the debt. Leave it to a “business man” addicted to debt to keep his addiction rolling on a monumental and greatest debt binge unseen by any nation in the history of the world, ever. No really, nothing like it, ever.
Does Bill Bonner sound like he thinks King Trump is deliberately TRYING to destroy America or the world? I don't think POTUS is doing that, or that BPR thinks that that is Trump's intention.
Trump is just doing the same thing Reagan and Jimmy Carter, etc., have done - though perhaps with more obvious ostentatious greed.
Don't worry! Scott Bessent learned his trade under MAGA nemesis George Soros. He made a fortune shorting the British Pound and will soon make us all rich by shorting the US dollar.
Ok there are many reasons our man made and historically over inflated bubble will pop. Many, many will lose much of their paper money. But to say that one of sharp objects capable of popping the bubble is Trump's health is total TDS. There is no documented credible evidence of any health issues however, there is much credible evidence that he is healthy. Bill's evidence is a visible bruise on his hand based on unknown etiology and as seen in a photo, and a suspected swollen leg predicated on a picture of a suspected swollen ankle as reported by the legacy press...pleeese.
Tom,
You are probably right that there is no documented creditable evidence of any health issues
But surely you agree that Trump is mentally unhealthy.
His conduct throughout his life has been distinguished by an array of abnormal deportment; decisions all consciously made but which were and continue to be triggered by acute selfishness or by excessive presumptuousness, or both.
Let's face it: Being a convicted tax thief and sexual predator; documented philanderer trivializing his vows to his multiple wives; having made and bragged about making a half dozen mis-allocations of resources entrusted to him by banks; abusing the Constitution and impulsively attacking another country no threat to us are not the hallmarks of a mentally healthy man.
Surely you agree?
Jimm
“…another country no threat to us…”
So, Jimmy, what make-believe land of naivety do you live in? Almost 5 decades of sponsoring global islamic terrorism is, to you, no threat?
Jimmy, what would it take, for you - as Ann Landers would say - to “wake up and smell the coffee?” A nuclear strike? A dirty bomb? Clearly decades of standard Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks isn’t enough to open your eyes to reality of the situation.
Surely you recognize that the ayatollahs will use a nuke when they get one. Mean it when they say Death to America. Death to the Great Satan and the Little Satan. Surely you agree.
Sluggo
Of course I don't want Iran to go nuclear. No sane person would wish its religious fundamentalists to have this awful capability.
If ever -- somehow, someway -- Iranian fundamentalists acquire this capability, then as with the USSR (and now Russia), China and North Korea (which recently rebuffed DJT), all we can hope is that MAD restrains them (Mutually Assured Destruction).
Alternatively, in a future Administration, perhaps clever diplomats might be able to create a Nuclear Free Zone in the Middle East.
It would be tricky but not outside the realm of possibility.
Probably require a US guarantee of Israel's security in exchange for the removal of its nuclear bombs (made possible by the theft of US technology, a theft in which Israel's current PM participated).
Jimm
Jimm, all that you said is true. However, such behavior does not constitute a physical health problem as Bill suggested. Nor does it constitute a mental health problem. Rather it strongly suggests an unethical and. morally depraved narcissist, which unfortunately may be plus given his job description.
Tom,
You are a tolerant, no doubt forgiving man. I suspect you help the needy.
But unethical, morally depraved and narcissistic are manifestations of abnormal behavior.
So is sexual assault, intentionally "cooking the books" to avoid paying tax as well as deliberately defying the Constitution
The most reason example is DJT's aberrant behavior is his intentional refusal to heed the War Powers Resolution.
It required DJT simply to notify Congress within 48 hours. He couldn't be bothered, of course.
Isn't megalomania a mental defect?
Jimm
Seriously.
Nor was Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam
Easy, Patrick. Enjoy you vacation. You don't have to defend Donnie at every turn. You will admit that if he were your brother-in-law when he cheated on your pregnant sister you would love to go upside his head.
Not to mention his age Tom.
I am 76 and starting to get ‘scatty’.
I hope today is Friday. Good. Lunch with my geriatric friends.
He needs them all.
When will you publish your latest investment choices again?
Nobody says go short even with leaps
I only have a few stocks, les than 20% of the IRA. The other two Items in the IRA allow me to relax and watch the circus roll by. Of course, this is bad news for the country as a whole but I don't see any good news ahead.
Jim Marshall
Like your style