The real cause of America’s shrinking manufacturing capacity is not the nation’s past trade policies (favoring free trade). It’s our monetary policies (favoring fake money!)
The primary issue remains how America’s, and the world’s, free trade policies were implemented beginning in the 1990s. As a person who ran a small manufacturing plant in the Pacific Northwest, I had a front row seat. It was a free trade clinic. For years my company had been a supplier to the aerospace industry. Our profit margins were always razor thin, such is the life of any company within the “tiers” supplying the worlds giant corporations. There was always pressure to reduce prices and thus costs, a business model that was viable for no other reason than our competition was in the same boat, and critically because our competition lived within the same labor and materials ecosystem that we were in. In other words, the fight was always on but it was a fair fight. Enter Chinese competition. The new reality did not emerge overnight, it was a creeping phenomenon that, for thousands of small US manufacturers, ended in death by a thousand cuts. My business was lucky. I saw the handwriting on the wall and negotiated a buyout by a larger company, convinced that my small enterprise would not otherwise survive Chinese pricing. We were being asked to meet the Chinese price to get the business. It was crystal clear that we could not do so for any length of time before insolvency would result. As it turns out, the larger company that acquired mine was dealing with the exact same phenomenon and it later threatened their business as well. They survive today as a smaller company.
So this was free trade. Was it fair trade? The question and answer are perhaps complex. In my own opinion this situation was brought about by both American and Chinese corporations enriching themselves at the expense of their workforces. The beneficiaries were Wall Street and the CCP, the 10% and the 1% in both countries. It happened, in different ways, on both sides of the Pacific. In my opinion free trade was never fair trade as advertised. It was implemented by the great nations of the world in the modern era to benefit the few, not the many. It was a gigantic wealth transfer. Freedom is great for the beneficiaries. For others, perhaps not so much.
Straight from the horse's mouth - and the horse is Wise at that. Thank you, Brien. Now Trump is trying to rectify, if not reverse, the Reality that you lived through and suffered from - while also ducking mudballs from nearly every corner, including Substack authors who tried and failed to do the same things in the past that Trump is doing successfully now.
Exactly. For BB to state that the cause of the manufacturing base being destroyed was not the result of trade policy is just a flat out lie! There, I said it!
So Brien, a question: how much of that “lower cost” was driven by your company’s difficulty in competing due to extensive government regulations: OSHA, environmental, IRS, state and local licensing / bonding requirements, and zoning regulations?
The biggest issue where government control was concerned was that we had to pay the Federal minimum wage and our new competion(China) didn’t. Most of my hourly workforce were already well above the minimum wage and I never considered that I would ever want to go down that path even if I could have.But it irked me that the workforce in China largely worked in slave labor conditions, especially compared to American standards, and the Chinese elites were the primary beneficiaries of the loss of American jobs to China. Yes it created new Chinese jobs, but you and I would never have wanted to be in their shoes, same goes for our kids. We financed the world emergence of China as a superpower in every way possible.
Most of the rest of my costly government regulations came from the Federal Aviation Regulations due to the fact that I was aerospace. No way around that although the process was certainly inefficient. The Chinese also had to comply but doing it at the component level is much less costly than compliance at the end-item deliverable level.
It is really tough to cut government spending because every dollar they spend is going into someone's pocket, and all those someones tend to have connections in Congress or Federal agencies that will act to protect them.
I am grateful to DOGE for exposing a little of the waste, but I have no doubt that there is much more that should be exposed, and eliminated. Not likely to happen, largely because it would require congressional action, and, as noted above, members of Congress happen to be happy with the way things are. They do not yet see a crisis that threatens them, other than cuts to the grift they fund for their campaign contributors. That crisis will arrive, probably in the next few years, but by then it will be too late to avoid catastrophe for the general populace.
Gordon, exactly. DOGE is essentially done. And, the budget is going up - not down. The 2T$ promised - nowhere close. Stopping the war in Ukraine - nowhere close and money continues to flow to the deep hole where no one knows where it goes. Congress is controlled by their larger donors. It isn't they "want" or "think" things need to stay the same, they have NO ability to make a difference because they want to get re-elected. Not all, but the vast majority, are focused on securing funds for their next campaigns and not on working on American issues here in the United States. The Administration seems heavily focused on foreign policy and protecting Israel. The U.S. does not need more defense to protect America - the increase isn't to make us more secure and frankly, will make others built up their militaries too to protect themselves. As it has been since George W showed up, Administration after Administration have looked elsewhere. Bill is spot-on - his eyes are wide open and clearly sees the crises ahead. As you said "too late to avoid the catastrophes" coming. The good people here don't like it, don't want to hear it, and refuse to consider what actually lies ahead. Here is hoping as they sling mud at Poor Ol' Bill, they buy some gold/silver and maybe some freeze-dried food for what might lie ahead. Remember the ol' saying - "it isn't what you don't know that gets you, it is what you know for certain that isn't so." Just an ol' LSO's mumblings.......never mind.
Easily good enough - remember I am an LSO. Wanted F4s Miramar but the RAG (VF-125) was almost out of aircraft because they kept sending them to Vietnam. Offered F4s Oceana but couldn’t stomach the East Coast. Too many years on the Severn. Offer A-6s in Whitby but who wanted to go there. So being a Southern California boy - only choice LeMoore. Sometimes Life chooses for you!
Well, it's back to normal for Bill covering Trump. Sure hope Bill can hold it together until Trump leaves office. I had thought things were pretty bad with the Dems in charge, but under Bill's enlightenment Trump is apparently far worse. For me, things like a closed border, new trade deals and a giant natural gas pipeline in Alaska (among many) are pretty impressive, to this old man. Apparently, some of you youngsters feel the same.
Oil has always been a volatile commodity, Rockefeller brought stability. That was lost in the 70’s because of OPEC. Drill baby drill caused the Saudis to open the spigot and, as in such cases, it became too wide open. The price of oil plummeting, W TX producers will have to scale back, leaving oil in the ground which is good. If they are not prepared for the volatility, they don’t have a right to exist.
The good news, gas is $2.75 not $4.00. Americans benefit; each tank is $65. Not $120.00.
The American financial system is ready to collapse. People from around the world are gleeful about it and aware of it. They hate American interference in the world.
The government is so big, it’s everyone’s rice bowl; the entire economy is corrupted along with the Americans that suck on the teet.
Of course it won’t change.
Trump is haphazardly screwing everything up. There is no laser focus on eliminating the biggest corruption of all… the military industrial complex, the warfare state empire.
I hate free trade as much as Bill loves it. I consider it a rip of of Americans by corporate interests, extravagantly big corporations that direct all things and force you to buy their products because they control the market.
The Lockheed fiasco, the pulling the plug on planed production, shows everything has a planned timeline.
Free trade was a concoction to dupe Americans, to make bigger profits from cheap labor. They created, Japan, Korea, China. China dominates American imports, next Mexico Canada. NAFTA was their dream.
Americans were hurt.
Nothing will change until the financial collapse, or we blow up the world.
I would like to see American production rejuvenated; the basis of living well is self reliance. America needs to retrench, become a bolt hole of survival for Americans. Ship the illegals thieves back, babies too. They steal our legacy. Take care of Americans.
A litany of Worst Case Outcomes - arrived at through Flawed Analysis, Irrational Hatred, and a complete Denial of Existing Positive Results - or in other words, just another day at BPR. So sad that the accompanying tone to your essay seems to be one of Giddiness - SMH. There's a big difference between 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 for bad outcomes versus 𝙝𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 for them...
PS - Hey Bill, what does your table say about the amount of new jobs that were GOVERNMENT HIRES during the whole of TraitorJoe's term, with those parasites being over 90% of the total during the last QUARTER of his time in office? You are giving us typical leftarded gaslighting, and we're not as Stupid or Indoctrinated as the useful idiots for whom you seem to be writing.
The FACT that the number of new jobs is heavily into Positive territory, while the number of Government Hires has actually gone DOWN during Trump's first 100 days, plus the FACT that nearly 100,000 government workers have retired, been fired or Resigned, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 while you peck around the edges and spin cherry-picked bits to look like a negative. The Reality that the outstanding job numbers from both March and April represent new hires 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 shows, at least so far, that the Trump scheme is beginning to work. We are seeing the exact opposite of what we saw during Dementia Joe's Reign of Doddering - yet you expect us to meekly wear the wool you consistently pull down.
Sorry, Not Sorry - keep hoping for the worst outcomes for our Country and lying about or omitting the Reality. We'll keep paying attention to what is actually happening...
Thank you SE, for taking the time daily to respond to Herr Bonner’s horrible missive’s. It’s actually quite unbelievable how he thinks we’d be so much better off with more communists in charge!?! Is he a communist? If you’d asked me that question 20 years ago, I’d have called you a liar. His insane rants against President Trump are just that, plain lunacy. And it’s more apparent, by the day, that he’s not analyzing but actually spreading misinformation and disinformation both. Very disappointing, disturbing and disheartening. Just the results most Marxists are hoping for.
Well, Bill, I have to give you credit that it certainly seems that, at least on the surface, you tried to write a serious column today. Unfortunately, you've lost so much credibility IMO, I can't take your arguments seriously anymore as you never look at the total picture. If oil prices go down, you complain that high-cost producers can't make a profit. So, what is more important - that high-cost producers make a profit or that the cost of energy is coming down? Your column is riddled with statements like this that scream for more analysis, but none is forthcoming from you.
What are slave wages here are not slave wages elsewhere. I don’t have a problem with tariffs against countries like China which actually uses slaves but most of the world does not have slave labor.
Very difficult to follow as two industry titans, both in their 80's clash. Here you and (Porter) agree tariffs cost will be passed on to consumers; on the other hand Jim Rickards lays out a compelling case as to why that won't happen.
One such compelling point is "If the could charge more today, before tariffs, they would. What makes you think the introduction of tariffs will change that equation?" Makes a complete argument, why wouldn't they be charging more now, b4 tariffs? The answer is the consumer wouldn't comply. They would just look elsewhere. Beef too high, buy chicken, chicken to high by pork etc.
Finally, eggs are back down to $2 a dozens, gas is ~ 2 - 2.70 a gallon, yet the MSM is totally quite....hmm.... wonder why?
Actually it was Woodrow Wilson that got it started. Roosevelt just added a 4 barrel carburetor, a full race cam and glass packs on the exhaust. Since then we've added a turbocharger.
"this shows up clearly if we show industrial output next to % of workers in manufacturing.
from 1945 to 2008 we had a massive rise in output (12 to 102, a nearly nine-fold rise) but the % of the labor force in this space plummeted. it actually dropped in actual workers, peaking in 1979 at 19.5 million and dropping to 11.5 million in 2009 from which it has risen to 12.7 today."
El Gato Malo has a graph showing the decline in U.S. manufacturing workers, while the output has gone up. I couldn't paste the graph. He says workers has increased from 11.5 million in 2009 to 12.7 million today.
More manufacturing here may not produce the number of jobs desired. It doesn't look like manufacturing is on the decline either. Why wasn't this type of information included in the article?
Thanks for the info, Byron. IMO, the Trump Liberation Plan is more about onshoring the homegrown production of things we need in a crisis than it is about increasing jobs in the Manufacturing sector. Both are great goals, and of course Trump is gonna trumpet the "Jobs" part, but like so much else he is doing - the initial words get everyone screaming and riled up, while the actual purposes are being achieved in near silence.
Trump learned A LOT in his first term and subsequent 4 years...
I have to make a comment on tariffs. This is not a thesis but an observation. There will be many holes to fill , so like I said not a thesis. So We have 2 neighbors, they have many a house or home on their property. One neighbor has 10 children to support and the other neighbor has 1 child to support. I will give them names "ten" for the one with more to support and "one" with one to support. Ten sells peas to "one" and " one" sells eggs to "ten". After a while as they trade "ten" says to "one" , I notice that I spend a lot of money buying from You. "ten" says I think that You should move Your chicken coups to My country. "One" starts to think , what will I do with all these people that are dependent upon Me? My chicken coup business is one of the most efficient in the world. I have local people working for Me . They supply me with grain to feed My chickens, know how to look after the water supply , automatic supply of feed systems. Even auto manure removal. "One" says to " Ten" You have put Me in a bad situation. Between a rock and a hard place. All these people that depended on Me will be almost broke. Both financially and morally. "One" says to "ten" , will Your move Your peas knowledge to My country? "Ten " says it would not be worth it for Me to do so. So the questions remain. What should "one" do ?Should He listen to "ten"? Or? This is a hypothetical situation. But From My vantage point , there is good and bad with trade. but tariffs are not good . "Ten " has a lot of clout, but ten children to feed. So naturally ten has to spend more to feed his family. One does not have spend as much as He has only one mouth to feed. So is trade fair? But one has to look at the big picture. Is it win win or lose and win?
You're assuming that ten only has one customer to trade with and/or can't innovate and provide for his own needs. So, yes, a lot of holes because your example only focuses on one small aspect of the issue. Real economies are much more complex, especially if "ten" is a communist dictatorship and uses the profits it makes from trading with you to bolster its military that could eventually threaten you or its neighbors. That is, you are assuming this is all just peaceful trade with no other consequences.
Yes You too are filling in holes. I am a simple person who would trade with like minded people, countries. Yes I do know that is impossible in this world in which We live in. It is still interesting to see comments.
But then the state steps in and tells One that his chickens are creating too much noise pollution and that he needs a special building to stop the smell, the noise pollution, and the chemical releases. And licenses, special training for himself and any employees.
And after One invests all that time and money to comply with Tyranny, the tyrants step back in and kill every chicken, claiming they are at risk of contracting a mythical disease that hasn't yet appeared in One's State...
Well if other countries wouldn't tariff our goods and basically embargo us from selling our stuff to them maybe we wouldn't be beating their brains in with our tariffs? It's just a thought.
Then there's reality. The whole world plays King on the Mountain. If you're going to be the King on the Mountain you got to act like the King or you get knocked off the mountain and somebody else becomes King.
As you noted, the fake money is the real reason for most woes government blames on others. Here’s an example of how it’s impoverishing people even in “highly paid” professions:
Im Bills age and spent my whole life in the machine tool business. I spent 40 plus years in manufacturing plants all over our country and witnessed the best and worst of times in manufacturing. To make this short Bill is wrong in so many aspects. Greed, bad management decisions and unfair trade practices cost America its leadership. My industry a once world powerhouse industry was given away piece by piece. It took 50 years to destroy what we had and Pres Trump is only the beginning of restoration. He is our country’s best hope. I for one am behind his efforts. Maga.
Highway safety, clean air, free trade…
The primary issue remains how America’s, and the world’s, free trade policies were implemented beginning in the 1990s. As a person who ran a small manufacturing plant in the Pacific Northwest, I had a front row seat. It was a free trade clinic. For years my company had been a supplier to the aerospace industry. Our profit margins were always razor thin, such is the life of any company within the “tiers” supplying the worlds giant corporations. There was always pressure to reduce prices and thus costs, a business model that was viable for no other reason than our competition was in the same boat, and critically because our competition lived within the same labor and materials ecosystem that we were in. In other words, the fight was always on but it was a fair fight. Enter Chinese competition. The new reality did not emerge overnight, it was a creeping phenomenon that, for thousands of small US manufacturers, ended in death by a thousand cuts. My business was lucky. I saw the handwriting on the wall and negotiated a buyout by a larger company, convinced that my small enterprise would not otherwise survive Chinese pricing. We were being asked to meet the Chinese price to get the business. It was crystal clear that we could not do so for any length of time before insolvency would result. As it turns out, the larger company that acquired mine was dealing with the exact same phenomenon and it later threatened their business as well. They survive today as a smaller company.
So this was free trade. Was it fair trade? The question and answer are perhaps complex. In my own opinion this situation was brought about by both American and Chinese corporations enriching themselves at the expense of their workforces. The beneficiaries were Wall Street and the CCP, the 10% and the 1% in both countries. It happened, in different ways, on both sides of the Pacific. In my opinion free trade was never fair trade as advertised. It was implemented by the great nations of the world in the modern era to benefit the few, not the many. It was a gigantic wealth transfer. Freedom is great for the beneficiaries. For others, perhaps not so much.
Straight from the horse's mouth - and the horse is Wise at that. Thank you, Brien. Now Trump is trying to rectify, if not reverse, the Reality that you lived through and suffered from - while also ducking mudballs from nearly every corner, including Substack authors who tried and failed to do the same things in the past that Trump is doing successfully now.
The Envy is palpable...
Exactly. For BB to state that the cause of the manufacturing base being destroyed was not the result of trade policy is just a flat out lie! There, I said it!
So Brien, a question: how much of that “lower cost” was driven by your company’s difficulty in competing due to extensive government regulations: OSHA, environmental, IRS, state and local licensing / bonding requirements, and zoning regulations?
We’d,
The biggest issue where government control was concerned was that we had to pay the Federal minimum wage and our new competion(China) didn’t. Most of my hourly workforce were already well above the minimum wage and I never considered that I would ever want to go down that path even if I could have.But it irked me that the workforce in China largely worked in slave labor conditions, especially compared to American standards, and the Chinese elites were the primary beneficiaries of the loss of American jobs to China. Yes it created new Chinese jobs, but you and I would never have wanted to be in their shoes, same goes for our kids. We financed the world emergence of China as a superpower in every way possible.
Most of the rest of my costly government regulations came from the Federal Aviation Regulations due to the fact that I was aerospace. No way around that although the process was certainly inefficient. The Chinese also had to comply but doing it at the component level is much less costly than compliance at the end-item deliverable level.
Definitely agree that I would not want to be in the shoes of a Chinese laborer.
Sandals, more likely.
Just sayin'...
It is really tough to cut government spending because every dollar they spend is going into someone's pocket, and all those someones tend to have connections in Congress or Federal agencies that will act to protect them.
I am grateful to DOGE for exposing a little of the waste, but I have no doubt that there is much more that should be exposed, and eliminated. Not likely to happen, largely because it would require congressional action, and, as noted above, members of Congress happen to be happy with the way things are. They do not yet see a crisis that threatens them, other than cuts to the grift they fund for their campaign contributors. That crisis will arrive, probably in the next few years, but by then it will be too late to avoid catastrophe for the general populace.
Gordon, exactly. DOGE is essentially done. And, the budget is going up - not down. The 2T$ promised - nowhere close. Stopping the war in Ukraine - nowhere close and money continues to flow to the deep hole where no one knows where it goes. Congress is controlled by their larger donors. It isn't they "want" or "think" things need to stay the same, they have NO ability to make a difference because they want to get re-elected. Not all, but the vast majority, are focused on securing funds for their next campaigns and not on working on American issues here in the United States. The Administration seems heavily focused on foreign policy and protecting Israel. The U.S. does not need more defense to protect America - the increase isn't to make us more secure and frankly, will make others built up their militaries too to protect themselves. As it has been since George W showed up, Administration after Administration have looked elsewhere. Bill is spot-on - his eyes are wide open and clearly sees the crises ahead. As you said "too late to avoid the catastrophes" coming. The good people here don't like it, don't want to hear it, and refuse to consider what actually lies ahead. Here is hoping as they sling mud at Poor Ol' Bill, they buy some gold/silver and maybe some freeze-dried food for what might lie ahead. Remember the ol' saying - "it isn't what you don't know that gets you, it is what you know for certain that isn't so." Just an ol' LSO's mumblings.......never mind.
"...it is what you know for certain that isn't so."
Ya mean like today's article from Bill Bonner?
EXACTLY like that SE! 🤣😳🤡😝
"Just an ol' LSO's mumblings......."...gotta be West coast. Gotta be.
Absolutely. VA-155 Silver Foxes and USS Oriskany
LOL…I knew it. And VA. Grades weren’t good enough to get VF, huh?
Easily good enough - remember I am an LSO. Wanted F4s Miramar but the RAG (VF-125) was almost out of aircraft because they kept sending them to Vietnam. Offered F4s Oceana but couldn’t stomach the East Coast. Too many years on the Severn. Offer A-6s in Whitby but who wanted to go there. So being a Southern California boy - only choice LeMoore. Sometimes Life chooses for you!
I’m aware of that. I’m an LSO, too. I know the deal.
Well, it's back to normal for Bill covering Trump. Sure hope Bill can hold it together until Trump leaves office. I had thought things were pretty bad with the Dems in charge, but under Bill's enlightenment Trump is apparently far worse. For me, things like a closed border, new trade deals and a giant natural gas pipeline in Alaska (among many) are pretty impressive, to this old man. Apparently, some of you youngsters feel the same.
Oil has always been a volatile commodity, Rockefeller brought stability. That was lost in the 70’s because of OPEC. Drill baby drill caused the Saudis to open the spigot and, as in such cases, it became too wide open. The price of oil plummeting, W TX producers will have to scale back, leaving oil in the ground which is good. If they are not prepared for the volatility, they don’t have a right to exist.
The good news, gas is $2.75 not $4.00. Americans benefit; each tank is $65. Not $120.00.
The American financial system is ready to collapse. People from around the world are gleeful about it and aware of it. They hate American interference in the world.
The government is so big, it’s everyone’s rice bowl; the entire economy is corrupted along with the Americans that suck on the teet.
Of course it won’t change.
Trump is haphazardly screwing everything up. There is no laser focus on eliminating the biggest corruption of all… the military industrial complex, the warfare state empire.
I hate free trade as much as Bill loves it. I consider it a rip of of Americans by corporate interests, extravagantly big corporations that direct all things and force you to buy their products because they control the market.
The Lockheed fiasco, the pulling the plug on planed production, shows everything has a planned timeline.
Free trade was a concoction to dupe Americans, to make bigger profits from cheap labor. They created, Japan, Korea, China. China dominates American imports, next Mexico Canada. NAFTA was their dream.
Americans were hurt.
Nothing will change until the financial collapse, or we blow up the world.
I would like to see American production rejuvenated; the basis of living well is self reliance. America needs to retrench, become a bolt hole of survival for Americans. Ship the illegals thieves back, babies too. They steal our legacy. Take care of Americans.
From today's Dose of "Wisdom":
"going to see, going to lead to, going to have"
"may be" (x4)
"could actually"
"may not"
"raising concerns"
"may not yet"
A litany of Worst Case Outcomes - arrived at through Flawed Analysis, Irrational Hatred, and a complete Denial of Existing Positive Results - or in other words, just another day at BPR. So sad that the accompanying tone to your essay seems to be one of Giddiness - SMH. There's a big difference between 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 for bad outcomes versus 𝙝𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 for them...
PS - Hey Bill, what does your table say about the amount of new jobs that were GOVERNMENT HIRES during the whole of TraitorJoe's term, with those parasites being over 90% of the total during the last QUARTER of his time in office? You are giving us typical leftarded gaslighting, and we're not as Stupid or Indoctrinated as the useful idiots for whom you seem to be writing.
The FACT that the number of new jobs is heavily into Positive territory, while the number of Government Hires has actually gone DOWN during Trump's first 100 days, plus the FACT that nearly 100,000 government workers have retired, been fired or Resigned, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 while you peck around the edges and spin cherry-picked bits to look like a negative. The Reality that the outstanding job numbers from both March and April represent new hires 𝗯𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 shows, at least so far, that the Trump scheme is beginning to work. We are seeing the exact opposite of what we saw during Dementia Joe's Reign of Doddering - yet you expect us to meekly wear the wool you consistently pull down.
Sorry, Not Sorry - keep hoping for the worst outcomes for our Country and lying about or omitting the Reality. We'll keep paying attention to what is actually happening...
Want some Truth about the Jobs Numbers?
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1919368988120752329?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1919368988120752329%7Ctwgr%5E09c9c498bc69f3c9e6277e6cecfb61418d9d4566%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchoiceclips.whatfinger.com%2F2025%2F05%2F05%2Fjobs-are-booming-and-theyre-real-jobs-not-government-jobs-medias-praying-for-a-trump-recession%2F
Thank you SE, for taking the time daily to respond to Herr Bonner’s horrible missive’s. It’s actually quite unbelievable how he thinks we’d be so much better off with more communists in charge!?! Is he a communist? If you’d asked me that question 20 years ago, I’d have called you a liar. His insane rants against President Trump are just that, plain lunacy. And it’s more apparent, by the day, that he’s not analyzing but actually spreading misinformation and disinformation both. Very disappointing, disturbing and disheartening. Just the results most Marxists are hoping for.
Well, Bill, I have to give you credit that it certainly seems that, at least on the surface, you tried to write a serious column today. Unfortunately, you've lost so much credibility IMO, I can't take your arguments seriously anymore as you never look at the total picture. If oil prices go down, you complain that high-cost producers can't make a profit. So, what is more important - that high-cost producers make a profit or that the cost of energy is coming down? Your column is riddled with statements like this that scream for more analysis, but none is forthcoming from you.
You make it sound like America is the ONLY country on earth that levies Tariffs.
If tariffs are so bad, then why do other countries use them?
They use them to protect producers that cannot compete with producers in other countries in a free market.
Cool story, bro. Now add in Slave Wages on one side and get back to us...
What are slave wages here are not slave wages elsewhere. I don’t have a problem with tariffs against countries like China which actually uses slaves but most of the world does not have slave labor.
Y" know, it's just like surgery, lots of pain, long recovery. Nothing new under the sun since time immortal, and no "tweeners."
Mr Bonner, before you continue deriding SECDEF Hegseth, you might want to read this:
https://open.substack.com/pub/cdrsalamander/p/one-to-6000-vs-one-to-1400?r=12ghgx&utm_medium=ios
Otherwise, when it comes to things military, you might want to stay in your lane.
Very difficult to follow as two industry titans, both in their 80's clash. Here you and (Porter) agree tariffs cost will be passed on to consumers; on the other hand Jim Rickards lays out a compelling case as to why that won't happen.
One such compelling point is "If the could charge more today, before tariffs, they would. What makes you think the introduction of tariffs will change that equation?" Makes a complete argument, why wouldn't they be charging more now, b4 tariffs? The answer is the consumer wouldn't comply. They would just look elsewhere. Beef too high, buy chicken, chicken to high by pork etc.
Finally, eggs are back down to $2 a dozens, gas is ~ 2 - 2.70 a gallon, yet the MSM is totally quite....hmm.... wonder why?
Yes, they’re going to tell the foreign exporters to lower their prices. And they’ll do it, if they want to sell to the USA market.
So, why not speak about FDR, that really got the ball rolling with fakeness, and go back to 1913, how much did good ol J.P. to get the FED. going.
RALPH W.
Actually it was Woodrow Wilson that got it started. Roosevelt just added a 4 barrel carburetor, a full race cam and glass packs on the exhaust. Since then we've added a turbocharger.
"this shows up clearly if we show industrial output next to % of workers in manufacturing.
from 1945 to 2008 we had a massive rise in output (12 to 102, a nearly nine-fold rise) but the % of the labor force in this space plummeted. it actually dropped in actual workers, peaking in 1979 at 19.5 million and dropping to 11.5 million in 2009 from which it has risen to 12.7 today."
https://open.substack.com/pub/boriquagato/p/the-enemy-of-us-industry?r=1a6ws5&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
El Gato Malo has a graph showing the decline in U.S. manufacturing workers, while the output has gone up. I couldn't paste the graph. He says workers has increased from 11.5 million in 2009 to 12.7 million today.
More manufacturing here may not produce the number of jobs desired. It doesn't look like manufacturing is on the decline either. Why wasn't this type of information included in the article?
Thanks for the info, Byron. IMO, the Trump Liberation Plan is more about onshoring the homegrown production of things we need in a crisis than it is about increasing jobs in the Manufacturing sector. Both are great goals, and of course Trump is gonna trumpet the "Jobs" part, but like so much else he is doing - the initial words get everyone screaming and riled up, while the actual purposes are being achieved in near silence.
Trump learned A LOT in his first term and subsequent 4 years...
I have to make a comment on tariffs. This is not a thesis but an observation. There will be many holes to fill , so like I said not a thesis. So We have 2 neighbors, they have many a house or home on their property. One neighbor has 10 children to support and the other neighbor has 1 child to support. I will give them names "ten" for the one with more to support and "one" with one to support. Ten sells peas to "one" and " one" sells eggs to "ten". After a while as they trade "ten" says to "one" , I notice that I spend a lot of money buying from You. "ten" says I think that You should move Your chicken coups to My country. "One" starts to think , what will I do with all these people that are dependent upon Me? My chicken coup business is one of the most efficient in the world. I have local people working for Me . They supply me with grain to feed My chickens, know how to look after the water supply , automatic supply of feed systems. Even auto manure removal. "One" says to " Ten" You have put Me in a bad situation. Between a rock and a hard place. All these people that depended on Me will be almost broke. Both financially and morally. "One" says to "ten" , will Your move Your peas knowledge to My country? "Ten " says it would not be worth it for Me to do so. So the questions remain. What should "one" do ?Should He listen to "ten"? Or? This is a hypothetical situation. But From My vantage point , there is good and bad with trade. but tariffs are not good . "Ten " has a lot of clout, but ten children to feed. So naturally ten has to spend more to feed his family. One does not have spend as much as He has only one mouth to feed. So is trade fair? But one has to look at the big picture. Is it win win or lose and win?
You're assuming that ten only has one customer to trade with and/or can't innovate and provide for his own needs. So, yes, a lot of holes because your example only focuses on one small aspect of the issue. Real economies are much more complex, especially if "ten" is a communist dictatorship and uses the profits it makes from trading with you to bolster its military that could eventually threaten you or its neighbors. That is, you are assuming this is all just peaceful trade with no other consequences.
Yes You too are filling in holes. I am a simple person who would trade with like minded people, countries. Yes I do know that is impossible in this world in which We live in. It is still interesting to see comments.
But then the state steps in and tells One that his chickens are creating too much noise pollution and that he needs a special building to stop the smell, the noise pollution, and the chemical releases. And licenses, special training for himself and any employees.
And after One invests all that time and money to comply with Tyranny, the tyrants step back in and kill every chicken, claiming they are at risk of contracting a mythical disease that hasn't yet appeared in One's State...
🤣😳
Well if other countries wouldn't tariff our goods and basically embargo us from selling our stuff to them maybe we wouldn't be beating their brains in with our tariffs? It's just a thought.
Then there's reality. The whole world plays King on the Mountain. If you're going to be the King on the Mountain you got to act like the King or you get knocked off the mountain and somebody else becomes King.
Thanks for filling in some of the holes.
As you noted, the fake money is the real reason for most woes government blames on others. Here’s an example of how it’s impoverishing people even in “highly paid” professions:
https://jdbreen.substack.com/p/how-more-money-makes-us-poorer
Terrific comment. Went to the link and really enjoyed your story and analysis. Thanks
Thank you. Appreciate the kind words.
Im Bills age and spent my whole life in the machine tool business. I spent 40 plus years in manufacturing plants all over our country and witnessed the best and worst of times in manufacturing. To make this short Bill is wrong in so many aspects. Greed, bad management decisions and unfair trade practices cost America its leadership. My industry a once world powerhouse industry was given away piece by piece. It took 50 years to destroy what we had and Pres Trump is only the beginning of restoration. He is our country’s best hope. I for one am behind his efforts. Maga.
Not yet! Remember, a big part of your investment advice is a trade of a DECADE! Can you give Trump a few months?