Both the stock market and the economy are now growing — but only because of a whirligig of ‘capex’ spending on AI...which is most likely money down the drain.
What’s laughable is my Fidelity “advisor” hated gold at $2400, said no way he’d “let” me buy it (I didn’t listen to him), but now, at $3800, he’s talking about it.
Yep, I laughed at him yesterday, said, “Oh, so NOW you’re bullish on gold. Where were you 1400 dollars ago?”
What amazes me is that Bill (the quintessential contrarian) is so negative when gold and energy are doing splendidly. One would think a contrarian whose recommendations are thriving would sit in the corner with a Cheshire Cat grin?
I know, the sky is falling. Right up until it doesn't.
Gold isn't doing so well, it's the Dollar that is doing so poorly. Theoretically, gold can't do well or poorly; it just is. That's the point of it, right? Best always. PM
In the end, everything fails except for the relationships we have with family and close friends. I give the shirt off my back to people because I believe in "The Infinite Way" where there is always an abundance of things that are spiritual and incorporeal. It just is.
Hmmmm - judging from some of the commenters on this board one can be well prepared and 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 run around like a chicken without a head at the drop of a hat. These individuals are easy to spot - they ALWAYS vote leftarde, think Charlie Kirk was hateful though they've never listened to even 30 seconds of his actual words (but their tv keeps saying so) and are 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 wearing masks*....
Leftarde and masks - really........is that what you are doing ol' Rightside? You voted for Harris and still wear a mask. Who knew? Actually, it seemed to appear that you had TDS (Trump Delusional Syndrome). Just goes to show you never can tell......but good to know. A leftarde.....congratulations!
I’m a landlord too, I worry about not having rent paid because of massive unemployment AND the good old democrats making landlords a part of the government support program like they did during Covid
ROFL. Well you got point #2 correct. I’m not wealthy. But point #1, big miss there. Unless you consider 70 to be young.
Although my Great Gram lived to age 106 and all my grandparents and parents made it to at least 92, and a couple of them to 99. So if genetics hold true I could still be considered ‘late’ middle age. Haha.
So I’ve had my finances ‘managed’ by two different entities. For the same reason you state. No time. UBS starting in 1999 when I retired early the first time, at age 45. They failed to hedge against disaster and my ultimate loss of capital was greater than 50%.
Fisher Investments the 2nd time. They did a great job, until they didn’t, and my ultimate loss was greater than 60%.
At that point my wife and I said screw it. So in 2010 we sold our house at a loss, moved onto our 35ft sailboat, and left the Great Lakes with a 5 year plan. 15 years later we are still on the boat.
We had a simple investment strategy. Gold. Silver. Cash. We converted all stocks and bonds to gold and silver in Jan 2009. That was it. When we returned to the U.S. in 2020 we had 70% more NAV than we had when we left. And that has doubled since 2020.
Gold. Silver. Some mining stocks. Some shipping stocks. An EM bond fund paying 6% and a couple other dividend stocks. Cash in MMF. That’s it.
I guess my prior bad experience with sell side advisors has colored my view. And it’s become clear to me over the years, that they don’t know anything that I can’t figure out.
But, I do understand your point because there certainly was a time where I felt like I couldn’t manage everything. That turned out to be incorrect, but it took a couple decades to figure that out. Best of luck to you in any event.
My Fidelity adviser tried to waive me off of gold at $1800. Just like all of Corporate Finance, they all get handed their songbooks(the same one) and that’s the only songbook they can sing from.
In 2016, I asked our financial planner what our finances would look like if Social Security tanked. “Congress will never let that happen.” Wanna bet? And, as those who follow Bill know, it can evaporate via dollar devaluation and inflation.
The reason to say that it's because it's a commodity and commodities come with huge risk. Additionally, they will say that there is no way to make income off of a commodity without selling at the right time. As fiduciaries there is a great deal of risk involved with commodity recommendations. I get your point. I get theirs as well.
Dollar falling can’t be the complete picture as gold is up roughly 43% year to date. Should have had “all of the above” as an answer. Keep up the great work Dan and Tom. Really enjoy your daily articles Bill.
Ai is the quantum computing operator, the fusion generator controller, the spaceship commander, the automobile driver, the surgeon's aide, the drone pilot, manufacturing manager, scientific researcher, economic analyzer, logistics planner. investment advisor (is BPR worried about the competition?)...
Ai already wears many hats and is currently trying on even more...
-
IMO there are too many not yet invested and far too many unknowns to draw absolute conclusions about Ai and the capex spending behind it.
How do you subscribe publications, count as GDP? I pay a guy who lives in Ireland France and Argentina for a subscription, does it reduce the American GDP?
Somehow these comments got away from the AI topic "which is most likely money down the drain". Where's the supporting evidence? Did you say the same thing when internet infrastructure was building out? Sure a lot of .coms crashed and burned and the same will be true of AI. Who wants to give up their phone or their streaming tv? I suspect we haven't yet begun to see the influence of AI on future living.
In My opinion , the winners and losers of this tech story have not been decided as yet! When a prevailing few come out "ahead" and a winner of sorts is declared then I may invest!
Government shutdown in an oxymoron. Death is the only thing more permanent than government, and even that "race" is neck-and-neck. Can we just admit it? We're saps. Best always. PM
inflation rising and dollar falling is just either/both sides of the same coin. Continue Investing in gold is simple as long as the the US Govt. never will address a future balance budget? Yes or no!
Are you investing or covering? Technically speaking, gold is insurance, because it's a constant (k). Buying or selling gold is either covering or speculation. Best always. PM
Bill, don't have much to say today. This whole FUBAR, TABU, SNAFU, makes my skin crawl! Those thirty years of service I spent look like a picnic in the park. WTF will happen next to send us down the toilet?
My questions. If the "big boys" have been selling stocks (hand over fists for quite some time), who the devil has the kind of money to buy these AI connected stocks and to also keep the CRYPTO coins at these lofty heights? Is it foreigners, federal government, the US middle class (on credit) or Martians? I understand buying gold because "nothing else" is real money, just forms of currency (Crypto "coin" owners will sadly find this out). I know what Bill's answer is. Just wait for the Dow/Gold 5 ratio to appear and buy "great companies" and hold on for 10 to 20 years and have heaven on earth. In the meantime, where is all this money coming from to support AI and Crypto???? Any answers, youngsters????
Several of us predicted this in mid-November 2024 and have turned a windfall of fiat into hard assets as a result. Many others remained under their beds - but to each his own.
Likely time to start heading for the exit by this Christmas, but don't step through the door quite yet, IMO. Probably want to be standing completely outside by late Spring 2026....
Great stuff for you guys. I'm just too old to gamble. Obviously, you've started reading the handwriting on the wall. Just remember, the ones who wait until the last word is written may end up with what the little bird left.
Gold is going up because the US government (Bessant) has made it clear that it is going to monetize the Gold in Fort Knox as well as monetize bitcoin via stable coins which will support treasury purchases. The central banks and big money are front running the trade. Get on board or get left behind.
My liberal goddaughter said last week she was buying gold, just in case she had to flee to Canada.🙄 No offense to those Canadians on this message string.
The FED balance sheet is over $2 trillion higher than it was 5-10 years ago. It is only coming down slowly, and not at all the last couple of weeks. How long will this fuel higher prices?
The hooch will help you more in the moment than the gold. Gold is a "get it and forget it" arrangement. And, you hope you never need it. I have sold gold and silver at times in my life and have ALWAYS regretted it, generally both instantly and long-term. Open the bottle instead. Best always. PM
What’s laughable is my Fidelity “advisor” hated gold at $2400, said no way he’d “let” me buy it (I didn’t listen to him), but now, at $3800, he’s talking about it.
Yep, I laughed at him yesterday, said, “Oh, so NOW you’re bullish on gold. Where were you 1400 dollars ago?”
...you really can't blame them, my Edward Jones advisor did the same.
The 60/40 guys played that way for decades, it's hard to change old habits.
Just ask Bill...
Good point. And they’re just parroting the company line.
What amazes me is that Bill (the quintessential contrarian) is so negative when gold and energy are doing splendidly. One would think a contrarian whose recommendations are thriving would sit in the corner with a Cheshire Cat grin?
I know, the sky is falling. Right up until it doesn't.
Gold isn't doing so well, it's the Dollar that is doing so poorly. Theoretically, gold can't do well or poorly; it just is. That's the point of it, right? Best always. PM
In the end, everything fails except for the relationships we have with family and close friends. I give the shirt off my back to people because I believe in "The Infinite Way" where there is always an abundance of things that are spiritual and incorporeal. It just is.
But what "IF" ol' Bill is right.........then what? Are you prepared for that? When that happens your hopium won't help you buy groceries......
Hmmmm - judging from some of the commenters on this board one can be well prepared and 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 run around like a chicken without a head at the drop of a hat. These individuals are easy to spot - they ALWAYS vote leftarde, think Charlie Kirk was hateful though they've never listened to even 30 seconds of his actual words (but their tv keeps saying so) and are 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 wearing masks*....
*Insert eye-roll here
I can only add that there are chickens without heads-plural (but no shortage of masks).
Brother, we will seriously miss you next weekend. But January is a go. More details to come on the DM.
Leftarde and masks - really........is that what you are doing ol' Rightside? You voted for Harris and still wear a mask. Who knew? Actually, it seemed to appear that you had TDS (Trump Delusional Syndrome). Just goes to show you never can tell......but good to know. A leftarde.....congratulations!
Yeah, I think the $360K a year I earn from rents, interest income (which is immune to the stock market) and the dividends I receive will tide me over.
I’m a landlord too, I worry about not having rent paid because of massive unemployment AND the good old democrats making landlords a part of the government support program like they did during Covid
Dave - one would hope so. Are you here then just for the laughs?
...Bill will be right... at some point in time.
In the meantime, if you are not invested you are standing still.
-
Tom spent a lot of time with container ships, and they have done us all well.
Had they invested that research into Ai related phenomena I believe we would have done even better.
Sure, I made out with the container ships.
However, investing in Ai I made much more...
IMO the Ai party ain't over yet...
The next Wall St Casino game is likely fusion...
I love that you're doing well. Some of us codgers refuse to accept the negativity.
Meh. Let it fall. Some of us will be indoors having a great supper or taking a nap....
He wouldn't be contrarian if he continued to follow the herd...
They are trained on Wall Street and make money from that.
OMG. Why would anyone ever use an ‘advisor’ tied to a brokerage firm?
Not being critical, as there could be a good reason.
I’m just asking the question because I can’t think of a good reason.
You must be young and not that wealthy. At some point you can't manage everything
ROFL. Well you got point #2 correct. I’m not wealthy. But point #1, big miss there. Unless you consider 70 to be young.
Although my Great Gram lived to age 106 and all my grandparents and parents made it to at least 92, and a couple of them to 99. So if genetics hold true I could still be considered ‘late’ middle age. Haha.
So I’ve had my finances ‘managed’ by two different entities. For the same reason you state. No time. UBS starting in 1999 when I retired early the first time, at age 45. They failed to hedge against disaster and my ultimate loss of capital was greater than 50%.
Fisher Investments the 2nd time. They did a great job, until they didn’t, and my ultimate loss was greater than 60%.
At that point my wife and I said screw it. So in 2010 we sold our house at a loss, moved onto our 35ft sailboat, and left the Great Lakes with a 5 year plan. 15 years later we are still on the boat.
We had a simple investment strategy. Gold. Silver. Cash. We converted all stocks and bonds to gold and silver in Jan 2009. That was it. When we returned to the U.S. in 2020 we had 70% more NAV than we had when we left. And that has doubled since 2020.
Gold. Silver. Some mining stocks. Some shipping stocks. An EM bond fund paying 6% and a couple other dividend stocks. Cash in MMF. That’s it.
I guess my prior bad experience with sell side advisors has colored my view. And it’s become clear to me over the years, that they don’t know anything that I can’t figure out.
But, I do understand your point because there certainly was a time where I felt like I couldn’t manage everything. That turned out to be incorrect, but it took a couple decades to figure that out. Best of luck to you in any event.
You Simply have to advantage your advisors
Convenience. Everything has a price. Best always. PM
Copy. That’s true. You as well.
Important lesson sir. The “experts”, like the majority are always wrong 🤔…just follow the science 🤣😂🤣😂
It is not possible (nor allowed) to use the term "science" without the modifier "settled". LMAO Best always. PM
My Fidelity adviser tried to waive me off of gold at $1800. Just like all of Corporate Finance, they all get handed their songbooks(the same one) and that’s the only songbook they can sing from.
Give him the old "I thought your beat is money" line, and then ask him what he thinks about Hamas and harangue him ragged over it. Best always. P{M
In 2016, I asked our financial planner what our finances would look like if Social Security tanked. “Congress will never let that happen.” Wanna bet? And, as those who follow Bill know, it can evaporate via dollar devaluation and inflation.
The reason to say that it's because it's a commodity and commodities come with huge risk. Additionally, they will say that there is no way to make income off of a commodity without selling at the right time. As fiduciaries there is a great deal of risk involved with commodity recommendations. I get your point. I get theirs as well.
Ahhh… Classic.. The Johnny come lately 😎✅
Dollar falling can’t be the complete picture as gold is up roughly 43% year to date. Should have had “all of the above” as an answer. Keep up the great work Dan and Tom. Really enjoy your daily articles Bill.
Sir you are absolutely correct, no one reason, a result of all and I am holding mine until the DOW/GOLD hits 5!!!
Agreed✅…I was surprised that “All of the above “ was … omitted 😎
Ai is the quantum computing operator, the fusion generator controller, the spaceship commander, the automobile driver, the surgeon's aide, the drone pilot, manufacturing manager, scientific researcher, economic analyzer, logistics planner. investment advisor (is BPR worried about the competition?)...
Ai already wears many hats and is currently trying on even more...
-
IMO there are too many not yet invested and far too many unknowns to draw absolute conclusions about Ai and the capex spending behind it.
Ai STILL can't tell me if I'm going to throw 7 first chance on the pass line... see you at "the tub". Best always. PM
Claude sez: the probability is 6 out of 36, or about 16.67% (roughly 1 in 6).
IMO Claude is much better than chatGPT, Ai assist and GROK.
OH, hell, I thought Claude was a drankin' buddy... Haha Best always. PM
...it is!
LMAO.
Bergs, you need to get out more.....
I thought I was an ugly,
oversided boot. Claude hoppers.
“𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘕𝘶𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘺 (3.8%!), 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘜𝘊𝘊𝘌𝘚𝘚 𝘸𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘰 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩!”
Then:
"𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘸𝘰 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯. "
Surely there are no dots to connect there......
How do you subscribe publications, count as GDP? I pay a guy who lives in Ireland France and Argentina for a subscription, does it reduce the American GDP?
...Phil Anderson's book "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking" touts a 18.5 year land value cycle.
I questioned the veracity of this prediction; not because Phil was wrong in his research, he is quite spot on.
It's difficult to imagine real estate price (or land values) dropping while propagating a "housing crisis".
But Phil is adamant the cycle will repeat...
Somehow these comments got away from the AI topic "which is most likely money down the drain". Where's the supporting evidence? Did you say the same thing when internet infrastructure was building out? Sure a lot of .coms crashed and burned and the same will be true of AI. Who wants to give up their phone or their streaming tv? I suspect we haven't yet begun to see the influence of AI on future living.
In My opinion , the winners and losers of this tech story have not been decided as yet! When a prevailing few come out "ahead" and a winner of sorts is declared then I may invest!
Government shutdown in an oxymoron. Death is the only thing more permanent than government, and even that "race" is neck-and-neck. Can we just admit it? We're saps. Best always. PM
inflation rising and dollar falling is just either/both sides of the same coin. Continue Investing in gold is simple as long as the the US Govt. never will address a future balance budget? Yes or no!
Are you investing or covering? Technically speaking, gold is insurance, because it's a constant (k). Buying or selling gold is either covering or speculation. Best always. PM
Bill, don't have much to say today. This whole FUBAR, TABU, SNAFU, makes my skin crawl! Those thirty years of service I spent look like a picnic in the park. WTF will happen next to send us down the toilet?
Ali
Try a tactical nuke in the eastern Europe quagmire; that should get the job done. Best always. PM
Prolly need to lob several. When I was in service, the Battlefield TacNucs were touted as taking out One Square Kilometer - but that was a while back.
I always wondered if that precise prediction was straight-edged, or kinda raggedy....
Probably with AI, you can have any shape you want ha ha.
My questions. If the "big boys" have been selling stocks (hand over fists for quite some time), who the devil has the kind of money to buy these AI connected stocks and to also keep the CRYPTO coins at these lofty heights? Is it foreigners, federal government, the US middle class (on credit) or Martians? I understand buying gold because "nothing else" is real money, just forms of currency (Crypto "coin" owners will sadly find this out). I know what Bill's answer is. Just wait for the Dow/Gold 5 ratio to appear and buy "great companies" and hold on for 10 to 20 years and have heaven on earth. In the meantime, where is all this money coming from to support AI and Crypto???? Any answers, youngsters????
...I for one have disobeyed BPR and went wild in the Wall St Casino since Liberation Day.
Paid off better than I had ever expected or experienced, I doubled the value of my account in 7 months!
Not sure when the gravy train stops, but right now Wall St is throwing up money...
Several of us predicted this in mid-November 2024 and have turned a windfall of fiat into hard assets as a result. Many others remained under their beds - but to each his own.
Likely time to start heading for the exit by this Christmas, but don't step through the door quite yet, IMO. Probably want to be standing completely outside by late Spring 2026....
Great stuff for you guys. I'm just too old to gamble. Obviously, you've started reading the handwriting on the wall. Just remember, the ones who wait until the last word is written may end up with what the little bird left.
The emerging tech exuberance chart seen on Charles Payne "Making Money" agrees with you Star.
ETFs. (Not young, so maybe answer doesn't count.)
Could I vote for all four answers in Dan's quiz?
Most multiple choice exams include "All of the above" or "None of the above". The really tricky ones give combination options.
Don't forget "Not enough information given to solve problem". That's government's job: obfuscation and fact-avoidance. Best always. PM
The dollar is falling but Wall Street is ripe with speculation and momentum and obviously gold and now silver is the game.
...it's rife with young folks no longer able to put their money to work in real estate.
Many surveys report folks still consider real estate THE best investment.
Gold is going up because the US government (Bessant) has made it clear that it is going to monetize the Gold in Fort Knox as well as monetize bitcoin via stable coins which will support treasury purchases. The central banks and big money are front running the trade. Get on board or get left behind.
MK
Is AI the 21st century tulip?🌷
My liberal goddaughter said last week she was buying gold, just in case she had to flee to Canada.🙄 No offense to those Canadians on this message string.
Hallelujah Patriots!! Let's hope the dims can stay stupid longer than our "government"" can stay bloated.....
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1973349676117118987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1973349676117118987%7Ctwgr%5E3d82c061f736c162e2ba2c6f0a5c62fc071d0015%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchoiceclips.whatfinger.com%2F2025%2F10%2F01%2Ftrumps-golden-opportunity-democrats-shutdown-blunder-hands-the-patriot-president-power-for-mass-firings-and-agency-closures%2F
The FED balance sheet is over $2 trillion higher than it was 5-10 years ago. It is only coming down slowly, and not at all the last couple of weeks. How long will this fuel higher prices?
So long as people continue to spend/buy. If demand collapses, so will prices. Best always. PM
Thank you, I agree. I do have some gold stockpiled, but mostly some of the best booze I have ever drank.
The hooch will help you more in the moment than the gold. Gold is a "get it and forget it" arrangement. And, you hope you never need it. I have sold gold and silver at times in my life and have ALWAYS regretted it, generally both instantly and long-term. Open the bottle instead. Best always. PM