Rough Trail Ahead

Government takes many different forms. But the one form all governments share is that of a criminal enterprise. At the end of the day, the feds force people to do things they don’t want to do.

Cattle drive on the Rio de la Plata. Source: Bill Bonner

Friday, April 24th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Baltimore, Maryland

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We’ll go down and cross the wide Rio de la Plata ourselves in a couple of weeks...but here’s the latest from our daughter, in Argentina:

‘Everything has gotten so expensive. I can barely keep up with it. Even simple things, like leaving a tip. I might have left 100 pesos a year ago...now, I leave 1,000 pesos. I don’t know how the local people do it.’

Naked Capitalism adds some precision:

According to the Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC), inflation increased 3.4% in March 2026, its highest level in the past 12 months.

That figure represented a sharp increase on February (2.9%). It was also the tenth consecutive month of month-on-month increases in inflation. On an annual basis, inflation is now as high as 32.6%. Granted, that’s still much lower than it was 27 months ago when Milei took over the reins and sent inflation to the moon with a 52% devaluation of the Argentine peso, but the mere fact that it is once again rising on a consistent basis is a major cause for concern.

President Milei looked at the full part of the glass: “If we take core inflation and remove the effect of meat, it is the same as last month at 2.5%.”

Argentine cattlemen produce some of the best beef in the world. But now that they are free to export it, the beef remaining in the country is so expensive few people can afford it. Britannia Daily:

Argentina’s beef consumption plummeted to a 110-year nadir in mid-2024 as citizens increasingly substituted poultry and pork for what had been a dietary staple, with donkey meat representing the latest adaptation to deteriorating purchasing power.

There are a lot of wild burros in the countryside. They are a nuisance. Fences are not just to keep the cattle in...but to keep the burros out. The locals sometimes shoot the burros; they do not eat them.

And while it costs only about a third as much as beef, ‘let them eat donkey meat,’ is not likely to be a popular political slogan.

For all we can tell, President Javier Milei is the only world leader since Jefferson with a clear idea about how things ought to work. But there is no guarantee that they actually will work that way, and not necessarily when you want them to.

Government takes many different forms. But the one form all governments share is that of a criminal enterprise. At the end of the day, the feds force people to do things they don’t want to do, surrendering either their property or their liberty. And since honest wealth is what a person gets when he is free to get it, any interference is likely to make him poorer. That is why ‘the government that governs best governs least.’

But what is true for the governed isn’t also true for the governors. The latter only get what they want by taking it — wealth and authority — from the people they are meant to serve. This is not the way they describe it in the civics books. And not a description that either Republicans or Democrats would agree with. But the real struggle — the one that matters — is not between Republicans and Democrats...nor liberals and conservatives...nor Protestants and Catholics...etc...but between the public and its overlords in what Milei calls the ‘casta politica.’

Alone among the world’s leaders, Mr. Milei seems to be willing to surrender some of his own wealth and power...so that ‘The People’ can get what they deserve.

Of course, he is no saint either. It was his chainsaw message — cutting down on government — that got him the fame and power he now enjoys. Were he to abandon it, that chainsaw could swing towards his own neck.

But now approaches the real test. Naked Capitalism:

The price increases, together with the rise in unemployment, the increase in labour informality (it’s already at 43%), the fall in consumption and the purchasing power of wages paint a critical scenario for the Executive: the polls coincide in the observation of a growing social unrest with the direction of the economy and a marked loss of support for the president.

For now, Milei and his chief economic lieutenant, Luis Caputo, are asking for patience. The Buenos Aires Herald:

“In economics there is causality, and this President and this government are doing things right, and that is why things will turn out well,” Caputo told the audience of business leaders, politicians, investors, economists and members of the press.

Despite the challenges, the minister insisted that “the next 18 to 20 months will be the best in recent decades” for Argentina, arguing that the economic model will provide the necessary tools for the general development of economic activity.

He’s probably right. Milei and Caputo are on the right road. Eventually, it should take them where they want to go. But it is not a smooth highway. It is a rough trail, with plenty of twists and turns...and switchbacks.

And like Christ in the desert, the casta politica will tempt Milei. If he goes for it, the entire ‘establishment’ will say he is doing the ‘reasonable’ thing...powerful groups will give him campaign donations…and opinion leaders will applaud. After all, they will say, he’s making the ‘trade-offs’ that every other political leader makes.

Hire people back in the public sector? Yes, of course, it will provide much needed jobs.

Limit exports...just a little? Yes, it will help lower consumer prices in the homeland.

Run a deficit? (Something Milei has sworn never to do.) Well...yes...just this once; just to get over this hump.

Will he resist?

Will he stick with the ‘principle of the thing’ as Christ did?

“Get thee behind me, Satan: thou art an offence unto me: for thou savourest not the things that be of God, but those that be of men.”

Whatever the response, it will be a show worth watching.

Regards,

Bill Bonner