Red in tooth and claw

Overall, an estimated 20 to 40 million people died in the Mongol conquests. And Genghis, taking advantage of the young women who were captured, has left more descendants than any other known human.

Source: Getty Images

Friday, April 10th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Baltimore, Maryland

“Raising the stakes so high beforehand, he [Trump] maximized the damage to [...] global perceptions of U.S. power...this is a clear strategic defeat for the U.S.”

—Jennifer Kavanagh, the former director of RAND’s Army Strategy program

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The costs are being tallied. The bills are coming in.

The Telegraph led off with an important question: What has Trump’s Iran War achieved?

Not much, was the answer. Stuff has been blown up. People were killed. So great was the destruction that you would hardly look at Iran today and call it a ‘winner.’ When the US and Israel set out to blow stuff up, they do a pretty good job of it.

But compared to what Trump threatened — the ‘end of a civilization’ — the country got off easy. The civilization in question has been around approximately 5,800 years longer than the US. And it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, any time soon. There are still 90 million people in the country. They still may have enriched uranium. And now they have tighter control of the Strait of Hormuz...and have discovered how to use it.

Most important, they are still alive. This point must have weighed on them as they considered their options. Donald Trump had given them a choice. Either do as he said...or die.

This was not the first time Iran had heard such threats. Genghis Khan routinely made the offer to the Persian cities in his path. ‘Give us your gold, your food, and your daughters...or we will kill you,’ said the Great Man. But Genghis didn’t chicken out. If a town refused, it would be besieged...and eventually, almost everyone in it would be killed. Along with the dogs and cats.

Genghis killed as a strategy. He committed such gruesome and terrifying war crimes so that few cities would oppose him. The city of Nishapur, for example, resisted. But Genghis had the leading generals and best war technology of 1221. Catapults, flame throwers, germ warfare, artillery — he had it all. After a short struggle he took the city and slaughtered as many as 1.7 million people.

Overall, an estimated 20 to 40 million people died in the Mongol conquests. And Genghis, taking advantage of the young women who were captured, has left more descendants than any other known human.

But so far, there is hardly a passing resemblance between Genghis Khan and Donald Trump. Whether it is reciprocal tariffs or wiping out whole civilizations, Trump’s threats — unlike those of the Great Khan — are mostly empty.

And instead of erasing his chosen enemies, Trump may inadvertently give them a boost. French commentator Arnaud Bertrand believes Trump has just done Iran an immense favor:

‘JP Morgan calculated that, as per the new Hormuz toll arrangement (which Gulf states have confirmed is allowed in the ceasefire plan), Iran may get $70-$90 billion in additional annual revenue, representing a stunning 20% of its GDP, in extra revenue. Hilariously, Trump commented on Truth Social that the arrangement means “big money will be made” and “Iran can start the reconstruction process.” Damn right: they gained the single most valuable geographic rent on earth, by a huge margin. For comparison, the Suez Canal earns Egypt “only” $9-10B/year, and the Panama Canal about $5B.’

Iran is also reaping some surprising collateral benefits. Not only can it sell its crude; it sells at a premium. Oilprice.com:

March has turned into a month of hard power tests for Iran — and so far, it has been quietly exceeding expectations. By effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz to all but its own cargoes (or the ones that have received their approval), Tehran has demonstrated that the trajectory of the conflict is far from being dictated by its counterparts. Faced with the risk of acute shortages in medium-sour crude, the US administration has been forced into a partial sanctions retreat, allowing Iranian barrels already at sea to re-enter the market. The result is a striking reversal — Iranian crude, once deeply discounted, is now trading at a $1/bbl premium to ICE Brent, while the pool of willing buyers is slowly but steadily widening.

Meanwhile, what about the US? Is it a ‘winner’ too?

Maybe. All issues may now be settled by brute force, since no one trusts the US or the Israelis to bargain in good faith. This alone makes the US a kind of winner. In a world ‘red in tooth and claw,’ the US has an advantage. It has the longest teeth and the sharpest claws of any beast in the jungle.

Alas, the law of the jungle tends not to work very well...not in the post-Genghis modern world. You can murder people with bombs...but what good does it do you?

And there’s always collateral damage. For the US, it’s just beginning to show up. So far this year, palm oil is up 20%. Gasoline is up 43%. Heating oil is up 68%.

And so you see, Americans will pay the costs of war — including the ‘reparations’ collected as tolls — for both sides.

And you can expect no relief from the Fed. The next ‘inflation’ report is likely to show the CPI over 3%. This leaves no room for the Fed to reduce rates.

Is this a victory?

You decide.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.3% in March, compared to 2.4% in February. Rising consumer prices have only partly captured surging global energy prices. Yesterday, the Personal Consumption Expenditure figures from March showed prices rising 3% year-over-year (see chart above). ‘Core’ PCE is said to be the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the US economy. The PCE numbers are from February and don’t include any rising prices for goods and services connected to the war in Iran and higher energy prices.