Recalling All Saints

Byron King pays homage to the dearly deceased and departed...

(Source: Getty Images)

November 1, 2022

While Bill Is Busy, We Recall the Deceased and Departed

Dear Reader,

Bill Bonner stepped away from his desk this week. He’s fine but preoccupied. There’s more to do than he has time. So he asked me to cover for him, to write a note to Private Research readers. I asked Bill what day he wanted me to substitute. And he said November 1st, aka All Saints’ Day. 

Well, well… Of all the days in all the months. Because there’s something about Bill and his sense of timing. He has an editorial gift, and seldom does he suggest something – let alone politely request – absent sound reason. And he picked today, of all days.

If you’ve been around for a while, then you know that Bill takes common, everyday things like a sunrise in Argentina, or mending a stone wall or painting a door – if not a Sunday sermon at an obscure Irish church – and somehow turns it into a metaphor. He’ll use the humblest item as his launch pad from which to sermonize on investing and preserving wealth amidst the ongoing carnage of an epochal Fed bubble. 

And allow me to share something personal here. While reading Bill is a pleasure, I must confess that writing en lugar de Guillermo is a challenge. 

That is, when Bill pulls you off the bench and puts you in the game, there’s no such thing as hammering out a mere workmanlike article. I mean sure, we could dissect the ridiculously low price of gold versus falling discovery rates, rising costs of development and skyrocketing money supply of the past couple of years. Or what about the shockingly sparse amount of diesel in storage? Hey, the U.S. is on the precipice of a winter fuel crisis, just like Euroland! 

True, but… The task from El Jefe is to deliver an article worthy of both your time and his trust. So, let’s begin by wishing you a happy All Saints’ Day. 

That is, it’s the day after Halloween. But even this point merits a sidebar because yesterday, October 31, was more than just another secular day when children (and more than a few adults) dressed in costume and walked the streets, if not came to your house and asked for candy. 

Hallowed Days

The celebration goes back over 1,700 years in fact, to the 4th and even 3rd Centuries of our calendar. It gets into the very DNA of modern Christianity and Western culture. And even those long-ago, misty, worshipful origins were likely grafted onto previous, far more ancient, pagan, Roman Empire customs such as the fall harvest celebration in a post-glacial world where, if the crops failed, you’d almost surely die of cold and hunger.

Way back, people actually “hallowed” things. They honored what they regarded as deeply important, which leads to a hallow-evening (or “ae’fen” in Olde English). In other words, Halloween was the night before a day of something sacred. Say that phrase fast a couple of times… “Hallow-ae’fen…” and you’ll get a feel for how the older expression transformed into the modern term. 

Which brings us to today, November 1, All Saints’ Day; and I may as well mention that tomorrow, November 2, is All Souls’ Day. In essence, we’re in the midst of a trio of holy days in the Christian church devoted to honoring saints as well as departed souls. 

In France, All Saints’ Day is called Le jour des morts, the Day of the Dead, a public holiday. In Germany, it’s Stiller Tag, or the Quiet Day. It’s Día de Muertos in Mexico, a celebratory day to recall the departed. 

You’ll find similar names and styles of celebration, if not formal political holidays, in countries across the globe. That is, on November 1 and 2 different people in different geographies pause to recall their deceased. And to remind themselves of their own, temporary mortality. 

These particular days of saints and souls are firmly moored in longstanding custom, if not ancient liturgy. Memorials and venerations are part of the culture throughout Central and South America; across northern, central and southern Europe; in parts of Turkey and into (the few) remaining and constricted Christian enclaves of the Middle East in Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt; down into parts of Africa; across the deep blue sea to Christian areas of India; then further east as far afield as the Philippines. 

And of course, you’ll find remembrance and reverence to the departed in Australia, New Zealand, and other far distant lands where shadows of Christianity still fall, however faded the social fundamentals might be down there, beneath the Southern Cross. 

Out of Control

Here in North America, where most Bonner readers reside, many quaint customs have become – sad to say, and not to put too fine a point on it – part of the throwaway culture. People are too busy. Time is too valuable. There’s work to do, if not stocks to trade online. And it’s simply burdensome for many to drive across town to a cemetery and visit mom’s grave. 

Meanwhile, who really has a spare hour to visit some dark, dank church? Or as a certain high political figure might say with his characteristic eloquence, “Hey, c’mon, man.” 

Whether it’s the Episcopal palace on a high hill or a sturdy Methodist fortress down in the valley, there’s just no time. Go to chapel, recall the departed, and nod towards that rugged old cross? No, not today, pilgrims. Other… ahem… priorities. 

It’s not hard to diagnose the underlying issue. It’s modern culture. There’s too much else to do. By way of comparison, most people scarcely read books anymore, either. Along these lines, have you heard about the massive numbers of de-accessed books that fill dumpsters outside of America’s libraries? Clearly, much of what happened before about the year 2000, if not 2005, is simply being carted off to the pulp recycler if not the landfills. 

“It’s all online,” they tell us. On Google Books, no less. As if, for example, you’ll ever read online the likes of American history by Bernard DeVoto, or of World War II through the pen of Hanson Baldwin. And besides, there’s so much else that’s currently happening right now that our entire civilization seems amenable to discarding its past. The sooner the better, some might say.

Obviously as well, many currently sit on the edge of their chair awaiting the next, much-anticipated Fed interest rate increase, scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, November 2. Should we buy stocks or sell? Great fortunes hang in that balance.

And all the while, the clock of destiny ticks down to the night of Tuesday, November 8 next week. Then, America will count her votes and determine which political party controls the House and Senate. And yes, it matters. 

Meanwhile, with just these two elements of current life – Fed and Congress – we have well and truly corralled the problem. Too much of that Fed-money floating around. And way too much politics, such that Beltway Progressive partisanship is the new secular religion. 

Plus, with all that money and politics in action is it any wonder that greed, fraud and corruption are killing the country? Hmm… Oh wait; it’s All Saint’s Day and here we are again, speaking of the dead. 

No, of course the country hasn’t died; not yet. Although it’s worth noting how Russian scholars routinely and seriously discuss the ongoing, evident failure of America as a political system. They say that the place no longer works. It doesn’t function. They describe potential breakup scenarios that make the dissolution of the former USSR look like an orderly effort, a day at the beach. 

If you don’t want to consider Russian analysis, how about a recent poll by no less than CBS News, totally mainstream establishment if there ever was such a thing. CBS calculates that 79% of Americans believe that the country is “out of control.” 

CBS News Poll @CBSNewsPoll

Out of control: Heading into the final week before election day, 8 in10 voters describe things in the country today as “out of control,” as opposed to “under control.” cbsn.ws/3sJiusr

Better Off?

The results are not just, say, that the country is “moving in the wrong direction,” mind you. But “out of control.” Think of a runaway train. Or it’s kind of like saying that the place is ungovernable. Well, it is kind of ungovernable anymore, right? 

If nothing else, this CBS poll is hardly a ringing endorsement of the current political leadership class. It thoroughly indicts the collection of grifters, mobsters, fools and imbeciles who’ve run the place for, oh… say… 30 years and more. Since the end of the Cold War, at least, although you could go backwards from there too. 

Or if you’re no fan of CBS, perhaps you would just take your own poll. Ask yourself if this is the “same country you grew up in” back in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, even 90s. Okay, let’s adjust for some improvements like more civil rights, safer cars, and better cardiac surgery. Things like that.

But still, is modern America safer from crime? From drugs? Homelessness? Are major cities better off? Are roads and bridges better? Are job prospects better? (Are there enough plumbers? I’m asking for a friend.) 

For all the computers everywhere, is the country more productive? Have social media companies improved overall output of useful goods and services? 

Has Big Pharma really improved your life? Is American food better than it used to be? Is the population healthier in terms of weight and general fitness? 

Or does Hollywood make better movies these days? Are TV shows better (okay, does anyone even watch TV)? Do singers belt out the tunes better? Do actors perform better? 

Is America’s energy situation better, such that you can both run the air conditioner and charge your electric car at the same time? Or if you still buy old fashioned gasoline and diesel, are you pleased with what you see at the pump? And are you currently living in fear of your heating and electric bill this coming winter? (If not, why not?)

Are American public schools better? Or even private schools? How about U.S. colleges and universities? Is the country educating young people better than in the olden days? Do costs justify the outcomes? Well, are math and science test scores going up or down? 

The Foreign Past

I could go on but you get my drift. Which brings us back to the beginning, to the point that the first three days of this week are a traditional time to remember saints and souls. Remember the dead and contemplate one’s mortality. Yet for the most part, here in the U.S. (and Canada I’d add) we no longer follow those old, outdated paths. 

It recalls that famous line by novelist L.P. Hartley, “The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.” And obviously, the country that many of us recall – the America in which we grew up – is no more. You’ve noticed, right? 

And riddle me this, dear reader. If the past really is Hartley’s foreign country, when and how did so many of us emigrate? Just where exactly do we live, anymore? Are we all now somehow illegal immigrants to this new nation that claims jurisdiction over half the continent? Are we just mere squatters in the newly formed United Deep States of America, perhaps? 

I don’t know about you, but I don’t recall ever agreeing that the country that used to be was so bad that we needed to burn it down. And yet here we are. We live in a nation and culture that has abandoned its past with no clear vision of the future, surrounded and controlled by corrupt institutions that have lost credibility and respect.

You don’t have to get all religious and churchy to appreciate that something deep has been lost from the foundations, if not the very heart of America. Hey, you can go to church, or not. Visit a cemetery, or not. Recall the saints and souls, or not.

But don’t think that fate will never catch up with all of us. Or that in the end, we won’t get what we want but will almost surely receive what we deserve.

That’s all for now…  Thank you for subscribing and reading.

Best wishes… 

Byron W. King 

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Joel’s Note: Dear readers will recall Byron’s dire warning from our very first Bonner Private Research Investment Summit, hosted back in December of last year, which we titled “The Winter Catastrophe.” Cautioned Byron:

“[T]he modern age is absolutely an evolution of the industrial revolution. And the industrial revolution was all about boiling steam and burning carbon and we spent 250 years doing it…

“The idea that we can just turn the valve and make it all go, is absolutely ridiculously stupid, crazy, lunatic, suicidal...

“You can build an industrial civilization, which is where we are. We are drinking from wells today that we did not dig. People a hundred years ago invented things and set things up. And again, the idea that this is all bogus, that it was all wrong. It was some sort of big mistake, you're really asking to rewrite history. I think it's a form of modern insanity. It's a form of mass insanity to deny the history of how you got to where you are, because the idea that you're going to change it all is completely, totally crazy.”

Byron predicted that German’s “green transition” pipe dream was leading the country on a road toward “Energy Stalingrad.” That might have seemed extreme at the time, but given what’s come to pass in the months since, where citizens across Deutschland are being asked to ration their hot water use… where they are already dimming street lights and shuttering public pools… and where fearful citizens are burning lignite, felling ancient forests and stockpiling firewood, medieval style… Byron couldn’t have been more spot on.

So when he says that the US “is on the precipice of a winter fuel crisis, just like Euroland,” we take note. Indeed, the cracks are already beginning to show…

According to the latest weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), distillate fuel inventories in the US are about 20% below the five-year average for this time of year. The EIA report shows that, at approx. 106 million barrels, national diesel reserves have not been this low since 1951 (when they were at 102 million barrels).

That would be bad enough… except, back in 1951, during the “good ol’ days” to which Byron was referring, above… the US population was only 150 million. Today, it’s 332 million (officially). Moreover, back then demand stood at about 1.02MMB/D. Today, due both to the increase in population and our increasingly industrialized economy (think A/Cs in every room and exotic foods trucked from sea to shining sea), daily demand stands at 4.2MMB/D.

What does all this look like then, in real terms? As of today, the U.S. has just 25 days of diesel supply in reserve. Accordingly, prices are already up 33% for November deliveries, with acute shortages showing up in key markets, in particular America’s northeast. (Remind your Antipodean editor again… does it get cold in those parts?)

According to its Winter Fuels Outlook in October report, the EIA predicts Households in the Northeast that rely on heating oil for space heating will see a 27% bump in their winter bills compared to this time last year.

But wait… can’t we just “make more?” As Byron warned at our first Winter Catastrophe summit, it just ain’t that easy. You don’t just “turn a valve and make it go.”

Part of the bottleneck comes from a lack of US refining capacity, which is now below where it was pre-pandemic, even as demand has rebounded to above where it was when know-all governments locked the world down. From the EIA:

(Operable atmospheric crude oil distillation capacity, our primary measure of refinery capacity in the United States, totaled 17.9 million barrels per calendar day as of January 1, 2022, down 1% from the beginning of 2021. According to our annual Refinery Capacity Report, 2021 was the second consecutive year of decreasing refinery capacity. Source: EIA)

While most people see shortages manifest themselves as higher prices at the pump or in heating bills, the problem with a diesel fuel crisis is actually more “systemic.”

Of the 15 million-plus commercial vehicles registered in the US, more than three-quarters (76%) are powered by diesel engines. These commercial trucks move almost 70% of the nation's freight tonnage. Extreme shortages in this critical market means industry closes down, food and medical supplies don’t get delivered, farms and factories are shuttered and store shelves remain empty.

Meanwhile, owing to acute shortages over on the continent (see Nord Stream explosions and European “green energy” policy stifling refining activity there), refineries on the US Gulf Coast are exporting about 1MMB/D to Europe.

What does this spell for America’s own Winter Catastrophe? What does it mean for prices not only at the pump, but at the grocery store, too? Should we expect shortages and, if so, which industries are most susceptible? What about diesel used in farming and fertilizers? And what about the nation’s fast-dwindling Strategic Petroleum Reserve, about which we haven’t even touched on today?

Byron has generously agreed to join us again, along with legendary resource investor, Rick Rule, for our upcoming Winter Catastrophe, 2022 Redux Summit, which we’ve penciled in for December 13th at 12 noon, EST. We’ll have more details on how you can register for the event in advance later in the week. Watch this space…

In the meantime, if you’re not already receiving our private Zoom invites as part of your Bonner Private Research membership, you might like to join our private network today. See here for details…