Stocks can also lose money for 20-year periods. McQuarrie names a couple of them. And it’s not just a US phenomenon. Italian stocks lost money for 20 years. So did those of Japan, Norway, and Germany.
I am not completely satisfied with the use of the Dow as a comparator- it is a moving target.
Because the stocks included are changed periodically, the Dow does not make a particularly stable yardstick for the gold ratio.
As the price of gold is manipulated (1931 and 1971) by the US Gov't. it is also a moving target.
When I was much younger millionaires were wealthy and influential- now one needs to be a billionaire to achieve the same status and power.
I do agree with the gist of the analysis but am left a bit unsatisfied. Besides that, having become disemployed during the Covid scam I do need some income from investments.
Exactly. I’m in your same situation. I’ve yet to see a gold bug here tell me how they generate interest/dividend income from it. And they all say they’re not selling.
All I can figure is that this newsletter is for those who are very wealthy, can devote these large percentage allocations to non-interest/dividend producing things, and that the remainder of their portfolios generate enough to live off of.
Finally an article without an attack on our new President and his policies that have yet to be fully implemented after a long period of severe insider grift and fraud.
Bill's best advice yet, "you don’t want to be heavily invested in stocks during a period when they are going down." This guy is almost as sharp as Jim Cramer!
In my opinion Schumer did not want a shutdown because it would show the American people of how much of the bloated government we don't need. Of course they (AOC, her squat, etc.) stupidly were all caught n video saying that government shutdowns were un-American too.
But, when in the past did we have a proportinate debt equal to our current 38 trillion +. Consequently, does Dow/Gold ratio "5" have any real meaning, as it has in the past?? Until we start having a balanced budget, it sure looks like "it's different this time" and may not even ryme.
I’m a bit confused. Or maybe my memory is failing.
A short while back Bonner (someone) described how poorly the $ holds value.
(I totally agree, but who would ever buy a house if there was no inflation?)
And now he hits the extreme fluctuations in a stock market index.
But didn’t they say, after criticizing the $ that over a pretty long time frame the $ and GOLD both came out at 96?
To me that is the best argument I’ve heard to NOT follow Dyson’s plan.
If my portfolio stays flat I double my money every 9 years. If gold does the same…..? And a normal 10-12% drop in my portfolio will likely not force any of my stock to lower dividends.
Everybody pay attention please! I have posted about gold being here or there and not there. I've sarcastically posted the lines about buying tulip bulbs. For those who remember i'm gonna start an etf on tulips.
Goldl has performed very well. How about other comodifies? Copper, silver, computer chips, Lumber unincomered by onerous regulation? I still have gold I still have copper...et al. I even have leather. Hides for those who dont understand.
The Global Markets are standing like Flamingo, on one leg. In 1698 a swan was spotted kissing a black feathered flamingo in the desolate parts Northern Australia. The raven knows the path to upheaved sky streaked flames.
The unity of stone mantles disturb the sacred treasure of Crown Jewels. The Pentagon emits the laser wave emission encapsulating the sonic boom outreach of atmospheric ripples. The 8th basement holds the deep core unknown green lava. Let’s not shake the tree branch upside the turnbuckle.
Now the Son of Fred, The American Savior, President Donald Trump faces one of the biggest challenges in history, the stock market crash “the likes, like never before” restoration of global financial equity and Bonner gets praise and a visit from the CIA to inquire about 5 ounces of Gold.
Ah, but Egypt, when the pink Flamingoes attack the polar bears in the far north and decimate their population, then, and only then, will it be time to realize the climate has changed and one must sell his gold and buy stock in air conditioning and refrigeration companies. Assuming, of course, that one has survived the atmospheric ripples of cataclysmic worldwide hurricanes and devasting mobile home seeking tornadoes. But Mother Earth will always be there for us no matter what we do.
I’ll immediately start building another bunker lined with flamingo repellent.
Also, I have to say, the singer’s got a real PI Magnum vibe going on, and that mustache could probably survive the cataclysmic hurricanes on sheer charisma alone!
Ah, but how do you know that the flamingo thing was but a diversion. You've already fell for the guy in the video. He's a bit player - granted, he and his band are good, but in this case, they are just friends/guests of the greater force - the young women in the video - The Castellows: three sisters - Lily (lead singer, occasional guitar, harmonica), Ellie (guitar, backup vocals, band leader, musical genius), Powell (banjo, backup singer, heart of gold). These girls and the young people like them are the soul of the new America - decency, honesty, integrity, sincerity, true patriots. They will have to pick up the pieces. Their amazing energy will one day in the not-too-distant future explode on the worldwide stage and we will all be better for it.
Just trying to keep everyone informed before the markets topple over like a flamingo with a leg cramp you know, but if the Pentagonal secret radio waves start whispering stock tips, I’ll be sure to pass them along, assuming they don’t scramble and fry my brain first! 😂
Your advice and knowledge is beginning to play out. I see some people complaining..,, if they had only just bought gold when your newsletter advised they would be quite happy with the ongoing increase in its price. Since I am a novice without big sums of cash this information is certainly helping me tremendously and I thank everyone!!!
‘……….. me too…….’ You know, crypto and the big 7 , all good if you took the punt and many did. When and for how long is the obvious question. Mentally hard to go in at recent levels and some have obviously got in lately. Good luck.
I often wonder how many got crypto at historic lower price and still hold it.
Most would bail out at some stage leaving late comers for the fervour.
For Australia - big city real estate has been a big go. Eye watering to me and I have been in it and on it and around it for 50 years. Not sustainable. But then, I’m just an old conservative………
The old people used to use an analogy ‘ how high can you throw a rock? ‘.
Its fair value concept, its not like you think, its based on relative prices in any given business(es), things. Imagine you held $1,000,000,000 what would you do with it? You know, as I know and others know, these sums represent loss in value in the numeraire, now think trillions, the higher the price the greater the loss; "the dollar" or choose your paper; CAD, Euro, Yen, Pounds, ....... what would you do with it ? Would, could you buy? Where would you invest it?. Its a quagmire. Dollar for dollar or, ounce for ounce?. Its all paper ! And or credit. This is the sad truth. If I think I understood your question.
i think Bill is on to something; however, the market is better at deception now. I believe we are more likely to see a $10,000 AU instead of a 15,000 DOW. The masses don't understand rising Au, but they get spooked by a falling DOW. I think pridyctive farmland is a better investment. Rent is generated at 2-3% of its value, and it appreciates faster than gold, maybe because it is more useful. or.....maybe I am just a windbag....
I am not completely satisfied with the use of the Dow as a comparator- it is a moving target.
Because the stocks included are changed periodically, the Dow does not make a particularly stable yardstick for the gold ratio.
As the price of gold is manipulated (1931 and 1971) by the US Gov't. it is also a moving target.
When I was much younger millionaires were wealthy and influential- now one needs to be a billionaire to achieve the same status and power.
I do agree with the gist of the analysis but am left a bit unsatisfied. Besides that, having become disemployed during the Covid scam I do need some income from investments.
Exactly. I’m in your same situation. I’ve yet to see a gold bug here tell me how they generate interest/dividend income from it. And they all say they’re not selling.
All I can figure is that this newsletter is for those who are very wealthy, can devote these large percentage allocations to non-interest/dividend producing things, and that the remainder of their portfolios generate enough to live off of.
Hold 10% in gold. Had you started 10 years ago, you'd be happy.
I started in 1993.
Finally an article without an attack on our new President and his policies that have yet to be fully implemented after a long period of severe insider grift and fraud.
Bill's best advice yet, "you don’t want to be heavily invested in stocks during a period when they are going down." This guy is almost as sharp as Jim Cramer!
In my opinion Schumer did not want a shutdown because it would show the American people of how much of the bloated government we don't need. Of course they (AOC, her squat, etc.) stupidly were all caught n video saying that government shutdowns were un-American too.
But, when in the past did we have a proportinate debt equal to our current 38 trillion +. Consequently, does Dow/Gold ratio "5" have any real meaning, as it has in the past?? Until we start having a balanced budget, it sure looks like "it's different this time" and may not even ryme.
Nice paper, Bill.
I’m a bit confused. Or maybe my memory is failing.
A short while back Bonner (someone) described how poorly the $ holds value.
(I totally agree, but who would ever buy a house if there was no inflation?)
And now he hits the extreme fluctuations in a stock market index.
But didn’t they say, after criticizing the $ that over a pretty long time frame the $ and GOLD both came out at 96?
To me that is the best argument I’ve heard to NOT follow Dyson’s plan.
If my portfolio stays flat I double my money every 9 years. If gold does the same…..? And a normal 10-12% drop in my portfolio will likely not force any of my stock to lower dividends.
So what’s the big deal here?
Help me out.
Everybody pay attention please! I have posted about gold being here or there and not there. I've sarcastically posted the lines about buying tulip bulbs. For those who remember i'm gonna start an etf on tulips.
Goldl has performed very well. How about other comodifies? Copper, silver, computer chips, Lumber unincomered by onerous regulation? I still have gold I still have copper...et al. I even have leather. Hides for those who dont understand.
Green and clean. I will bet that
Bill is shorting gold. Work it up, shit it out.
All the stats in this missive from Bill - and that most stocks are losers - makes what Buffett has done all the more fantastic.
The Global Markets are standing like Flamingo, on one leg. In 1698 a swan was spotted kissing a black feathered flamingo in the desolate parts Northern Australia. The raven knows the path to upheaved sky streaked flames.
The unity of stone mantles disturb the sacred treasure of Crown Jewels. The Pentagon emits the laser wave emission encapsulating the sonic boom outreach of atmospheric ripples. The 8th basement holds the deep core unknown green lava. Let’s not shake the tree branch upside the turnbuckle.
Now the Son of Fred, The American Savior, President Donald Trump faces one of the biggest challenges in history, the stock market crash “the likes, like never before” restoration of global financial equity and Bonner gets praise and a visit from the CIA to inquire about 5 ounces of Gold.
Code name: “5 oz of Gold” Terry!
Hahahaha!?! 😃😂🤣🤩🔱⚔️⚖️🔰🚀😱🐓💰💸💸💵💶💷💴🤑💲🧧💳🪙🌎🌎🌒🇲🇭🦘😃🤩😂
Ah, but Egypt, when the pink Flamingoes attack the polar bears in the far north and decimate their population, then, and only then, will it be time to realize the climate has changed and one must sell his gold and buy stock in air conditioning and refrigeration companies. Assuming, of course, that one has survived the atmospheric ripples of cataclysmic worldwide hurricanes and devasting mobile home seeking tornadoes. But Mother Earth will always be there for us no matter what we do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRJnhfM3iRc
Hahaha!
A truly apocalyptic vision!
I’ll immediately start building another bunker lined with flamingo repellent.
Also, I have to say, the singer’s got a real PI Magnum vibe going on, and that mustache could probably survive the cataclysmic hurricanes on sheer charisma alone!
Ah, but how do you know that the flamingo thing was but a diversion. You've already fell for the guy in the video. He's a bit player - granted, he and his band are good, but in this case, they are just friends/guests of the greater force - the young women in the video - The Castellows: three sisters - Lily (lead singer, occasional guitar, harmonica), Ellie (guitar, backup vocals, band leader, musical genius), Powell (banjo, backup singer, heart of gold). These girls and the young people like them are the soul of the new America - decency, honesty, integrity, sincerity, true patriots. They will have to pick up the pieces. Their amazing energy will one day in the not-too-distant future explode on the worldwide stage and we will all be better for it.
ES: Thanks for the tip! Whatever would we do w/o you??
Dorothy!
Glad to be of service!
Just trying to keep everyone informed before the markets topple over like a flamingo with a leg cramp you know, but if the Pentagonal secret radio waves start whispering stock tips, I’ll be sure to pass them along, assuming they don’t scramble and fry my brain first! 😂
ES: No chance of that happening!
Thank you Dorothy, I like my brain. LOL!
Your advice and knowledge is beginning to play out. I see some people complaining..,, if they had only just bought gold when your newsletter advised they would be quite happy with the ongoing increase in its price. Since I am a novice without big sums of cash this information is certainly helping me tremendously and I thank everyone!!!
‘……….. me too…….’ You know, crypto and the big 7 , all good if you took the punt and many did. When and for how long is the obvious question. Mentally hard to go in at recent levels and some have obviously got in lately. Good luck.
I often wonder how many got crypto at historic lower price and still hold it.
Most would bail out at some stage leaving late comers for the fervour.
For Australia - big city real estate has been a big go. Eye watering to me and I have been in it and on it and around it for 50 years. Not sustainable. But then, I’m just an old conservative………
The old people used to use an analogy ‘ how high can you throw a rock? ‘.
All the best.
I guess I’m a little slow on the uptake. If stocks are a losing proposition over the long term, why would we buy in at ANY gold ratio?
Its fair value concept, its not like you think, its based on relative prices in any given business(es), things. Imagine you held $1,000,000,000 what would you do with it? You know, as I know and others know, these sums represent loss in value in the numeraire, now think trillions, the higher the price the greater the loss; "the dollar" or choose your paper; CAD, Euro, Yen, Pounds, ....... what would you do with it ? Would, could you buy? Where would you invest it?. Its a quagmire. Dollar for dollar or, ounce for ounce?. Its all paper ! And or credit. This is the sad truth. If I think I understood your question.
i think Bill is on to something; however, the market is better at deception now. I believe we are more likely to see a $10,000 AU instead of a 15,000 DOW. The masses don't understand rising Au, but they get spooked by a falling DOW. I think pridyctive farmland is a better investment. Rent is generated at 2-3% of its value, and it appreciates faster than gold, maybe because it is more useful. or.....maybe I am just a windbag....
We are too conditioned to get rich quick scenes - with gold these past 25 years it’s a case of ‘get rich slow’.
Will Rogers explained how to make money in the stock market…. buy a stock, and when it goes up.. sell it.
Bill, find something sick and share!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RALPH W.
I agree with Sam! The BB of old is back!!! Keep at it :-), love commentaries like this.