Our Way of Life
How will America’s confrontational, scaremongering attitudes affect our financial future? The age-old combination of war and debt are likely to be fatal to the empire and to US asset values.
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Bill Bonner, writing today from Poitou, France
Foreign policy hack, Mary Kissel:
China is a party state. The function of China is not to better the interests of the Chinese people — it is to promote, strengthen, and expand the power and influence, and reach of the Chinese Communist Party.
You might wonder: is that any different from the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
And where did Kamala Harris come from? Does anyone know how or why this ‘DEI hire’ is now in the running for the top job in the USA?
Was the selection process for her much different from how the Soviets chose Brezhnev, or how the Chinese chose Xi? Wasn’t she selected by party honchos, behind closed doors? And isn’t her mission not to ‘better the interests’ of the American people... but to ‘promote, strengthen and expand the power and influence’ of the Democratic party’s elites?
We are exploring US foreign policy. Not for its own sake... foreign policy is not our beat. But how will America’s confrontational, scaremongering attitudes affect our financial future? In preview, the age-old combination of war and debt are likely to be fatal to the empire... and to US asset values.
The problems in themselves are easy to understand and solve. Javier Milei in Argentina turned a deep deficit into a surplus in a matter of months. In America, it should be easier. The ‘empire budget’ could be cut in half... or more... just by eliminating the ‘empire’ part. On the other hand, without substantial cuts to the military, there is little chance of preventing a financial catastrophe. Too bad, the firepower industry controls Congress!
Deeper in the Hole
The US has the most powerful empire the world has ever seen... with some seven hundred military bases all over the world... and a Pentagon budget eight times bigger than Russia and three times more than the Chinese. The total empire budget — including foreign aid and other entanglements — comes to about $1.3 trillion per year. And as long as it continues, the deeper into the hole the US goes.
Thanks to its lucky geography, America faces no danger from the land or the sea. The only plausible attack would come from the air. And the cost of maintaining a defense against it — with an Eisenhower Era level of reasonable military muscle — is probably around a quarter of the entire empire budget... or about $300 billion per year. The rest of the budget plays no real role in the defense of the fifty states.
But neither Republicans nor Democrats propose to make the obvious and essential cuts. Instead, they paint their faces and pound the drums... whooping for war. The foreigners are all out to get us, they insist.
We’ve lived among foreigners for the last thirty years, with business outposts in China, India, Australia and several other nations. Never once did we get the impression that they were ready to slit our throats.
But listening to recent congressional hearings, we felt lucky to get home alive. A supposed US foreign policy expert, Mary Kissel, said the Chinese aim to “upend our way of life and to dominate and change our way of life.” And they are “committed to destroy(ing) us.”
And members of Congress — all supposedly intelligent, educated people — took it seriously.
Grinding Poverty
The Chinese want to change our way of life? How? Do they want to make our wages go up at 7% per year... as theirs have for the last thirty years (while ours have been flat)? Are they hoping to build a high-speed train between Boston and Washington... or even between LA and San Francisco... one that will travel at 373 miles per hour like China’s new maglev?
Since 1979, the Chinese have multiplied their GDP by thirty times — three times faster than the US; they’ve lifted eight hundred million people out of grinding poverty in a single generation. Is that the way they’d change our way of life? Heck, maybe we’d all learn to speak Chinese if hat were the payoff.
Or maybe they’ll insist on getting the US retirement age down to just 54 years old... as it is in China?
Rep. Lisa McClain is apparently concerned that the Chinese company, Gotion, is up to something in her district.
In Michigan, we have the Gotion plant... We have a Chinese-owned company and the only spot they can figure out that is feasible for them to build is next to a university and next to a military base. Anybody think that’s a coincidence?
I’m not much for coincidences.
Ms. McClain may know nothing about China. But she might have realized that there are so many colleges and universities in her home state — 198, including community colleges and trade schools — being close to one of them was more than a coincidence; it was inevitable.
And since the company intends to hire thousands of Americans... and pay them about 50% more than the US average... it might make sense to locate near a university where the company could find the talent it needed.
As for the military base, it is more than one hundred miles away!
But on the Hill there is no need for careful, comparative analysis. Representative Tim Burchett set the tone, with this note of idiocy:
‘What if they were to develop some kind of biological entity that can, say, wipe out females of child-bearing ages or something?’
That would be just like the Chinese, right?! And what geniuses... the ‘entity’ would attack young American women — but not Chinese women.
But wait. With the American women wiped out...
... maybe that wouldn’t be such a smart strategy for the Chinese, after all. There would still be some 160 million American men alive.
Who would fix their breakfasts? Who would darn their socks and bake their cookies?
Watch out, you diabolical Chinese. They might be very angry...
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Research Note, By Dan Denning
How much of your income taxes are being spent on interest on the national debt? According to the latest Monthly Statement of the US Treasury, Net Interest expense was $81 billion June of 2024. That’s 43% of the $185 billion the government generated through income tax receipts.
But wait!
If you look at the bottom of the table below, you’ll see that ‘gross interest’ paid in June was $140 billion. That’s 76% of total income tax receipts. Three quarters of every dollar you paid in income tax went to pay interest on the debt in June. How sustainable is that?
‘Net interest’ is the interest paid to US Treasury debt held by the public. ‘Gross interest—a much bigger number— includes interest paid to various US government trust funds (Social Security) and other intra-government holders of US debt. In other words, its money the government ‘pays itself.’
Total US government debt is less than $50 billion away from $35 trillion. As the debt climbs closer to the 130% of GDP ‘trigger point’ we’ve identified in our research, the question arises: Who will the US government choose to default to first? Or will it default to all debt holders, through higher inflation (and interest rate cuts, beginning next week from the Federal Reserve)?
Bill Bonner loves to decry excessive costs of "empire", attributing the $35 trillion cash deficit known as "The Debt" to our empirical folly, and rightly so. Still, he writes/utters nary a word about the Welfare State, which costs just as much or more, and which has contributed to the undoing of our society via dis-incentivization of the populace, particularly targeted demographic groups. It is every bit as immoral as "empiring", and it bestows a status of indispensability of the government in the eyes of the recipients, now more than 50% of the population. Solomon might say, cut each by half and fix the hash of both in the process. Best always. PM
I am a retired defense department employee and I can attest how the Military Industrial Complex runs everything. We were getting defective equipment from a major defense contractor and we tried to hold them accountable but were always overrode by higher ups that gave them waivers. These higher ups almost always went on to work for this major defense contractor. The elites always need a boogeyman to justify fleecing us and enriching themselves and their stooges in the media go along. It is sickening.