There's not a man, or woman, or canine, who was alive in 1981 when the acknowledged debt of the United States of America broke the then-unimaginable $1 Trillion barrier, who believed, or even fantasized, that someday, that acknowledged debt number would grow beyond 40 times that amount. Such an outcome was simply inconceivable. And yet, here we are, and apparently just getting warmed up. To add insult to injury, the Treasury of the Secretary tells us that we can "grow" our way out of our debt. Everyone knows that is what people in the 50s used to call "bosh". If you're not "worth" today 40+ times what you were "worth" in 1981, you have not kept up with inflation. 90% of us are Wiley Coyote chasing the Road Runner, and we've just run off the edge of the cliff and are momentarily suspended in space, but we know what's coming, because it must come. I just can't believe it; it exceeds credulity. Best always. PM
My mom knew. The big scare back then was a the big scare back then was a Three Trillion Dollar Debt! She never went to college. She learned it from the late Phyllis Schlafley. I'm sure Bill was probably one, as a publisher, of the many , many, who would berated her as a sky is falling kook.
To end the week, don't sell any GOLD. Per Charlie Morris: Gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond with no credit risk, and no counterparty risk, issued by GOD!"
That, is the FIRST time that I have EVER seen Bill like ANYONE's comment. You summed up in one sentence, what Bill has been evangelizing since the inception of Bonner Private Research.
Doesn't mean it hasn't happened. It could have. I just haven't ever seen it.
Well done, sir! No truer words were ever, uh, written!
Oh, and for an explanation as to how AI uses the same dollar in a giant flim flam, look no further than X:
But they write their own articles. They've LIKED comments on "their" platforms. And haven't necessarily cross-liked. You would think they would "stay in their own lanes."
Then again who knows?
Caveat added.
This is the FIRST time I've seen a LIKE. By anyone associated with BPR. Inside a Bill Bonner article.
I believe I got this comment from Dan Denning several months ago in one of his Friday reports.....I really liked the quote. NOTE: I hope I didn't attribute this to Dan in case I really got it by way of Tom.....getting old, maybe I made a mistake.
I think this statement came from an English investment manager that was interviewed by Dan or Tom a couple of years ago. I also wrote down the quote but didn't make note of the guy's name.
And yet. Today the broad market indices (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) all seemed to shake off the bond market issues and are moving higher. Feels like we're in 1634 and tulip mania.
And there more and more gullible and ignorant gamblers who are chasing the extreme price to earning ratio stocks by using borrowed money to purchase them, the FOMO delusion will ultimately bite them in the ass!
If you have more and more debt with no way to stop it from increasing - the only "possible" solution is to double down. Whatever put these gullible and ignorant gamblers in this fix, the hopium is to win the lottery. So - that is why they play because there is no other way. It is going to be historic when the financial systems explode. Any idea what the value of derivative markets are - in mid-2025 it was approaching $850 Trillion - yes - that is $850 with a "T". Makes the U.S. debt seem small and of no consequence. And, today it is the "Whole World" - not just Germany in the Weimar Republic. When the bubble pops - all financial credit assets are going to crumble. Going to be historic. Got gold and silver - in your possession? If not - you are just like the gullible and ignorant.
You are correct, precisely why I own physical gold and silver. About 2.5 weeks ago I went long paper gold and silver, (GLD/ SLV) JAN 27 Contracts, I am lucky in the purchase when I did for they are performing well; however, I would never own paper gold and silver as an alternative for my physical holdings! Just my thoughts!!
Gold is great but they charge you sales tax when you buy it. Then a 28% tax on gains when you sell it. Then you must add in the transaction costs and holding costs from brokerage and gold dealers who will charge you over spot but never pay spot prices. Add in lost interest, it becomes much less attractive than cash. However, I have been holding a lot of cash since 2012 hoping for the pin to reach the bubble so I can buy dividend paying stocks at a sensible price. Still nothing! It scares me to death to lend money to the most bankrupt entity in the history of mankind! Not exactly a care- free retirement. It is a very strange world where the most bankrupt entity on Earth is also considered to be the safest.
Sounds to me you may want to consider another broker for the purchase and sell of your physical gold and silver, I personally utilize a broker who has no information relative my SS# and asks no questions relative my purchase and sell requests. I have been utilizing them for years with zero tax related issues!
The other guy invented a vacuum cleaner worth billions.
Now Zuckerberg supposedly buys 440 acres.
That’s not a neighborhood.
That’s MONOPOLY after everybody else went bankrupt.
Normal neighborhoods have problems.
Gary doesn’t mow his lawn, Linda’s dog 💩 beside your mailbox, some jerk leaves his Christmas lights up until March.
Billionaire neighborhoods?
“Darling, the fellow upstream has installed an autonomous security perimeter and purchased the western horizon.”
“Again?”
Imagine being so wealthy that you buy a CASTLE and somehow you’re still the new guy people complain about.
“Who’s moving in?”
“Zuckerberg.”
“Damn.”
“What’s wrong?”
“Property values might go UP.”
And I love this idea that billionaires lower their own quality of life.
Of course they do!
You spend your whole life accumulating enough money to escape humanity, then discover you need FORTY GUYS WITH EARPIECES TO PROTECT YOU FROM HUMANITY.
That’s success!
Normal guy takes a walk…keys, wallet, dog.
Billionaire takes a walk…six Suburbans, drone surveillance, advance team, two paramedics, cybersecurity, a helicopter., and a 27-year-old named Trevor whispering into his sleeve:
“PACKAGE IS APPROACHING THE PUB.”
PACKAGE?!
He’s getting a Guinness!
By the time you’ve got a tactical operation surrounding your pint…THE MONEY WON.
Now let’s discuss the federal debt.
Apparently it’s around $40 trillion, right Bill?
Numbers become adorable after a trillion because nobody understands them anymore and politicians absolutely love this.
“What’s the debt?”
“Forty trillion.”
Voter:
“Is that bad?”
Economist:
“Catastrophic.”
Voter:
“How much is a dozen eggs?”
“Six dollars.”
“SON OF A……!”
That’s politics.
Forty trillion dollars?
Abstract.
Eggs went up ninety cents?
OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT.
And apparently we’re going to “grow our way out.” What a beautiful phrase. That’s what every 400-pound man says while ordering cheesecake, “I’m gonna exercise later.”
Sir, you’re eating tiramisu with a soup ladle.
“GROWTH STRATEGY.”
The debt supposedly grew much faster than GDP and Washington says:
“We’ll grow our way out.”
That’s not an economic plan.
That’s telling your wife:
“Honey, I know the Visa is maxed out, the mortgage is late and the car got repossessed…but I’ve got a terrific feeling about my Etsy shop.”
So step right up folks, the new plan is to manipulate the yield curve!
Here’s the Administration’s new plan:
We sell THIS paper…to buy THAT paper!
BRILLIANT!
“Where’d the money come from?”
SHUT UP!
Long bonds! Short bonds! Ten-year! Thirty-year! Bills! Notes! Auctions! Buybacks! It’s no longer a Treasury Department. It’s a medieval paper carnival.
Scott Bessent enters wearing a top hat:
“Ladies and gentlemen, observe, I shall make the thirty-year yield disappear!”
POOF!
Market:
“No.”
“WAIT!”
POOF!
Market:
“No.”
“SON OF A…”
Imagine trying to intimidate the bond market. The bond market is trillions of dollars operated by people who consider three basis points a personality.
You can’t bluff these people. They don’t have emotions. One of them got married last summer. His vows were:
“I love you plus 75 basis points.”
His wife cried and he shorted the tears.
Here’s the best idea though, “locking in” low interest rates forever. Apparently rates were extremely low around 2020. In retrospect, we should have borrowed intelligently and controlled future deficits. That sounds sensible. I also should have bought Bitcoin in 2011. Unfortunately, at the time I was busy wondering whether Netflix would put Blockbuster out of business. Retrospective financial planning is wonderful. You never make mistakes.
“If only we’d known.”
Yes, if only. That’s the central problem with history. It keeps happening before we know what happens. Economists find this very frustrating. And now we’re told the debt may eventually reach $50 trillion. People worry, but I don’t. At forty trillion, we’re already past the point where I personally intend to help.
Trump said he doesn't understand why Switzerland's interest rate on their national debt is much lowered than ours. Today their 10 year is at .41% versus the US ten year at 4.72.
Maybe it has something to do with their federal debt/GDP ratio of only 16.1%, an inflation rate less than 1% and economic discipline. Here's something very interesting: "Switzerland ensures its federal debt remains low primarily through a constitutionally mandated fiscal rule known as the "debt brake" (Schuldenbremse), which requires the federal budget to balance over the course of an economic cycle. Enacted by a sweeping 85% voter approval in 2001 and implemented in 2003, this mechanism has successfully maintained Switzerland’s gross debt ratio at a highly stable level—with the net federal debt ratio sitting at just 16.1% of GDP."
I guess they don't teach this at the esteemed Wharton School?
They teach it, but you are probably told to never, ever, talk about it, except within certain circles.
People in Switzerland live almost 6 years longer than Americans. Switzerland has little or no Army or defense spending. Defense is the highest cost spending that we have I believe besides SS and Medicare. I would vote tomorrow for a "debt brake".
Gold will go up in fiat dollar price because the fiat dollar is losing purchasing value due to inflation, very simple, the fiat dollar is being devalued therefore it takes more devalued fiat dollars to purchase that same ounce of gold today!
Japan is at the bottom, and their economy remains sustainable.
They have a differing situation and a TRADE SURPLUS.
But debt alone at this point should not be a U.S. economy killer.
Debt can trigger economy killers...
-
From Claude:
The U.S. isn't in immediate danger.
Treasury yields remain relatively low, foreign and domestic demand for U.S. debt is strong, and the economy generates significant tax revenue.
But if current trends continue unchecked for decades without structural reform, the risks compound.
-
The danger isn't typically a single moment where debt "kills" the economy—it's a gradual loss of confidence, rising borrowing costs, and eventually a fiscal crisis where the government can't finance itself without painful choices.
Depends on what Claude means by the word "immediate"? Maybe to a computer immediate means this week? Maybe Claude should read Hemingway's line frim The Sun Also Rises. “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly".
American economic confidence is expected to remain resilient, driven by factors such as consumer spending and AI-related investments, despite challenges like inflation and a weakening job market.
The World needs US debt to function economly as that is how they finance their deals with US Treasury bonds. Back when we were balancing our budget there was shortage of funds for the World Economy.
I think snow snowball surviving hell is far more likely than US politicians cutting spending. As Tom Dyson states the deflationary forces are immense where private equity, commercial property values and AI debt are exhibits A, B, C and the bond market is exhibit D.
Don't you think everything except maybe guns, bullets and food would crater if interest rates hit 21% again? It would be a spectacular end of the everything debt bubble.
There's not a man, or woman, or canine, who was alive in 1981 when the acknowledged debt of the United States of America broke the then-unimaginable $1 Trillion barrier, who believed, or even fantasized, that someday, that acknowledged debt number would grow beyond 40 times that amount. Such an outcome was simply inconceivable. And yet, here we are, and apparently just getting warmed up. To add insult to injury, the Treasury of the Secretary tells us that we can "grow" our way out of our debt. Everyone knows that is what people in the 50s used to call "bosh". If you're not "worth" today 40+ times what you were "worth" in 1981, you have not kept up with inflation. 90% of us are Wiley Coyote chasing the Road Runner, and we've just run off the edge of the cliff and are momentarily suspended in space, but we know what's coming, because it must come. I just can't believe it; it exceeds credulity. Best always. PM
There were hints, like the appointment of Greenspan.
My mom knew. The big scare back then was a the big scare back then was a Three Trillion Dollar Debt! She never went to college. She learned it from the late Phyllis Schlafley. I'm sure Bill was probably one, as a publisher, of the many , many, who would berated her as a sky is falling kook.
I'm definetly worth 40x what I was in 81, I was a broke college kid who had to quit due to lack of funds.
Ding! WE have a winner! Congratulations on your success. Best always. PM
To end the week, don't sell any GOLD. Per Charlie Morris: Gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond with no credit risk, and no counterparty risk, issued by GOD!"
Enough said.
Jim Marshall
That, is the FIRST time that I have EVER seen Bill like ANYONE's comment. You summed up in one sentence, what Bill has been evangelizing since the inception of Bonner Private Research.
Doesn't mean it hasn't happened. It could have. I just haven't ever seen it.
Well done, sir! No truer words were ever, uh, written!
Oh, and for an explanation as to how AI uses the same dollar in a giant flim flam, look no further than X:
Have a great day everyone!
https://x.com/Bart_Mol/status/2090186439917027794
I don't think the "like" necessarily came from Bill. It could have come from Dan or Tom.
True.
But they write their own articles. They've LIKED comments on "their" platforms. And haven't necessarily cross-liked. You would think they would "stay in their own lanes."
Then again who knows?
Caveat added.
This is the FIRST time I've seen a LIKE. By anyone associated with BPR. Inside a Bill Bonner article.
Good point, but I'm skeptical that Bill even bothers to read the comments.
But as you said, who knows.
I believe I got this comment from Dan Denning several months ago in one of his Friday reports.....I really liked the quote. NOTE: I hope I didn't attribute this to Dan in case I really got it by way of Tom.....getting old, maybe I made a mistake.
Jim
I think this statement came from an English investment manager that was interviewed by Dan or Tom a couple of years ago. I also wrote down the quote but didn't make note of the guy's name.
Correct, I just wasn't sure of who passed it onto the BPR crew.
Jim
Charlie Morris runs Bytetree.com, created the Bold ETF and also runs the whisky and soda portfolios.
Omg. Which makes my X link above even more funnier.
When real solutions are too painful to even contemplate, flim-flam is all that's left. But neither flim nor flam will change the inevitable.
It’s tough being a millionaire living next to billionaires. Which of your many properties do you plan to move to?
Yeah. Bonner was breaking my heart with his tale of the neighborhood going to hell. Poor guy. What’s a multi-millionaire to do these days?
And yet. Today the broad market indices (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) all seemed to shake off the bond market issues and are moving higher. Feels like we're in 1634 and tulip mania.
And there more and more gullible and ignorant gamblers who are chasing the extreme price to earning ratio stocks by using borrowed money to purchase them, the FOMO delusion will ultimately bite them in the ass!
If you have more and more debt with no way to stop it from increasing - the only "possible" solution is to double down. Whatever put these gullible and ignorant gamblers in this fix, the hopium is to win the lottery. So - that is why they play because there is no other way. It is going to be historic when the financial systems explode. Any idea what the value of derivative markets are - in mid-2025 it was approaching $850 Trillion - yes - that is $850 with a "T". Makes the U.S. debt seem small and of no consequence. And, today it is the "Whole World" - not just Germany in the Weimar Republic. When the bubble pops - all financial credit assets are going to crumble. Going to be historic. Got gold and silver - in your possession? If not - you are just like the gullible and ignorant.
You are correct, precisely why I own physical gold and silver. About 2.5 weeks ago I went long paper gold and silver, (GLD/ SLV) JAN 27 Contracts, I am lucky in the purchase when I did for they are performing well; however, I would never own paper gold and silver as an alternative for my physical holdings! Just my thoughts!!
Gold is great but they charge you sales tax when you buy it. Then a 28% tax on gains when you sell it. Then you must add in the transaction costs and holding costs from brokerage and gold dealers who will charge you over spot but never pay spot prices. Add in lost interest, it becomes much less attractive than cash. However, I have been holding a lot of cash since 2012 hoping for the pin to reach the bubble so I can buy dividend paying stocks at a sensible price. Still nothing! It scares me to death to lend money to the most bankrupt entity in the history of mankind! Not exactly a care- free retirement. It is a very strange world where the most bankrupt entity on Earth is also considered to be the safest.
Sounds to me you may want to consider another broker for the purchase and sell of your physical gold and silver, I personally utilize a broker who has no information relative my SS# and asks no questions relative my purchase and sell requests. I have been utilizing them for years with zero tax related issues!
Well there goes the neighborhood right!?
WHAT NEIGHBORHOOD?!
One neighbor owns a castle.
The other guy invented a vacuum cleaner worth billions.
Now Zuckerberg supposedly buys 440 acres.
That’s not a neighborhood.
That’s MONOPOLY after everybody else went bankrupt.
Normal neighborhoods have problems.
Gary doesn’t mow his lawn, Linda’s dog 💩 beside your mailbox, some jerk leaves his Christmas lights up until March.
Billionaire neighborhoods?
“Darling, the fellow upstream has installed an autonomous security perimeter and purchased the western horizon.”
“Again?”
Imagine being so wealthy that you buy a CASTLE and somehow you’re still the new guy people complain about.
“Who’s moving in?”
“Zuckerberg.”
“Damn.”
“What’s wrong?”
“Property values might go UP.”
And I love this idea that billionaires lower their own quality of life.
Of course they do!
You spend your whole life accumulating enough money to escape humanity, then discover you need FORTY GUYS WITH EARPIECES TO PROTECT YOU FROM HUMANITY.
That’s success!
Normal guy takes a walk…keys, wallet, dog.
Billionaire takes a walk…six Suburbans, drone surveillance, advance team, two paramedics, cybersecurity, a helicopter., and a 27-year-old named Trevor whispering into his sleeve:
“PACKAGE IS APPROACHING THE PUB.”
PACKAGE?!
He’s getting a Guinness!
By the time you’ve got a tactical operation surrounding your pint…THE MONEY WON.
Now let’s discuss the federal debt.
Apparently it’s around $40 trillion, right Bill?
Numbers become adorable after a trillion because nobody understands them anymore and politicians absolutely love this.
“What’s the debt?”
“Forty trillion.”
Voter:
“Is that bad?”
Economist:
“Catastrophic.”
Voter:
“How much is a dozen eggs?”
“Six dollars.”
“SON OF A……!”
That’s politics.
Forty trillion dollars?
Abstract.
Eggs went up ninety cents?
OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT.
And apparently we’re going to “grow our way out.” What a beautiful phrase. That’s what every 400-pound man says while ordering cheesecake, “I’m gonna exercise later.”
Sir, you’re eating tiramisu with a soup ladle.
“GROWTH STRATEGY.”
The debt supposedly grew much faster than GDP and Washington says:
“We’ll grow our way out.”
That’s not an economic plan.
That’s telling your wife:
“Honey, I know the Visa is maxed out, the mortgage is late and the car got repossessed…but I’ve got a terrific feeling about my Etsy shop.”
So step right up folks, the new plan is to manipulate the yield curve!
Here’s the Administration’s new plan:
We sell THIS paper…to buy THAT paper!
BRILLIANT!
“Where’d the money come from?”
SHUT UP!
Long bonds! Short bonds! Ten-year! Thirty-year! Bills! Notes! Auctions! Buybacks! It’s no longer a Treasury Department. It’s a medieval paper carnival.
Scott Bessent enters wearing a top hat:
“Ladies and gentlemen, observe, I shall make the thirty-year yield disappear!”
POOF!
Market:
“No.”
“WAIT!”
POOF!
Market:
“No.”
“SON OF A…”
Imagine trying to intimidate the bond market. The bond market is trillions of dollars operated by people who consider three basis points a personality.
You can’t bluff these people. They don’t have emotions. One of them got married last summer. His vows were:
“I love you plus 75 basis points.”
His wife cried and he shorted the tears.
Here’s the best idea though, “locking in” low interest rates forever. Apparently rates were extremely low around 2020. In retrospect, we should have borrowed intelligently and controlled future deficits. That sounds sensible. I also should have bought Bitcoin in 2011. Unfortunately, at the time I was busy wondering whether Netflix would put Blockbuster out of business. Retrospective financial planning is wonderful. You never make mistakes.
“If only we’d known.”
Yes, if only. That’s the central problem with history. It keeps happening before we know what happens. Economists find this very frustrating. And now we’re told the debt may eventually reach $50 trillion. People worry, but I don’t. At forty trillion, we’re already past the point where I personally intend to help.
If the Treasury calls me:
“Sir, we need your assistance.”
I’ll check my wallet.
“I have forty-three dollars.”
“We owe fifty trillion.”
“Well, now you owe $49,999,999,999,957.”
Glad I could help.
Trump said he doesn't understand why Switzerland's interest rate on their national debt is much lowered than ours. Today their 10 year is at .41% versus the US ten year at 4.72.
Maybe it has something to do with their federal debt/GDP ratio of only 16.1%, an inflation rate less than 1% and economic discipline. Here's something very interesting: "Switzerland ensures its federal debt remains low primarily through a constitutionally mandated fiscal rule known as the "debt brake" (Schuldenbremse), which requires the federal budget to balance over the course of an economic cycle. Enacted by a sweeping 85% voter approval in 2001 and implemented in 2003, this mechanism has successfully maintained Switzerland’s gross debt ratio at a highly stable level—with the net federal debt ratio sitting at just 16.1% of GDP."
I guess they don't teach this at the esteemed Wharton School?
They teach it, but you are probably told to never, ever, talk about it, except within certain circles.
People in Switzerland live almost 6 years longer than Americans. Switzerland has little or no Army or defense spending. Defense is the highest cost spending that we have I believe besides SS and Medicare. I would vote tomorrow for a "debt brake".
I was just being facetious. I didn't know anything about Switzerland's economy until today. Looks like they know what they are doing.
Interest on the debt now exceeds military spending.
Gold will go up in fiat dollar price because the fiat dollar is losing purchasing value due to inflation, very simple, the fiat dollar is being devalued therefore it takes more devalued fiat dollars to purchase that same ounce of gold today!
In debt?
No doubt!
By far the most in shear dollar amount.
But in % we're 16th from the bottom.
Japan is at the bottom, and their economy remains sustainable.
They have a differing situation and a TRADE SURPLUS.
But debt alone at this point should not be a U.S. economy killer.
Debt can trigger economy killers...
-
From Claude:
The U.S. isn't in immediate danger.
Treasury yields remain relatively low, foreign and domestic demand for U.S. debt is strong, and the economy generates significant tax revenue.
But if current trends continue unchecked for decades without structural reform, the risks compound.
-
The danger isn't typically a single moment where debt "kills" the economy—it's a gradual loss of confidence, rising borrowing costs, and eventually a fiscal crisis where the government can't finance itself without painful choices.
Depends on what Claude means by the word "immediate"? Maybe to a computer immediate means this week? Maybe Claude should read Hemingway's line frim The Sun Also Rises. “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly".
"It's a gradual loss of confidence"...
When that confidence turns, it will be immediate.
-
From Claude:
American economic confidence is expected to remain resilient, driven by factors such as consumer spending and AI-related investments, despite challenges like inflation and a weakening job market.
As a farmer, maybe the spelling and meaning should be "CLOD". This nation's financial "seedbed" is way too full of them.
Trump's the wild card, so a vote on gold is just a wish. If you asked "will the empire continue to crumble ?" Under Trump, that's a no brainer
The World needs US debt to function economly as that is how they finance their deals with US Treasury bonds. Back when we were balancing our budget there was shortage of funds for the World Economy.
I think snow snowball surviving hell is far more likely than US politicians cutting spending. As Tom Dyson states the deflationary forces are immense where private equity, commercial property values and AI debt are exhibits A, B, C and the bond market is exhibit D.
Last time interest rates hit 22%
Gold cratered.
Don't you think everything except maybe guns, bullets and food would crater if interest rates hit 21% again? It would be a spectacular end of the everything debt bubble.