When the financial world begins to shake and shimmy, lenders become cautious. They’re no longer concerned so much about the rate of return ON their money; they worry about the return OF their money.
I am 81 years old and have been reading you since way before Substack. Some, as with anything, I have liked more than others. This was one that really hit the spot dead on. Thank you for all the years of interesting reads. Thanks to Tom and Dan as well.
AP Newswire PERSIAN GULF — Clutching their pens and calculators tightly, thousands of accountants boarded Higgins boats this morning in preparation for the launch of "Economic D-Day" against Iran.
Several of the men made their last, final update to their actuarial tables as the boats departed for the shores of Darak Beach.
"Men, some of you aren't coming back from this," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the accountants stared grimly across the water. "We do not know what Excel spreadsheets the enemy has prepared for us. Everything you have done to prepare, every page of The Accounting Game you studied, it all comes down to this. Failure is not an option. There must be a comprehensive review of the nation's accounts payable. Good luck and Godspeed!"
An eerie silence descended over the waters, broken only by the occasional whirr of someone sharpening a No. 2 pencil. Then, all at once, the silence was broken.
“GO! GO! GO!" shouted commanders as the landing ramps dropped. "MOVE! MOVE! MOVE! SECURE THOSE RECEIPTS!”
Chaos immediately ensued, with screams echoing across the beach as the accountants went to work.
"Sir! They're mixing capital expenditures with operating expenses!" screamed one accountant frantically. "We have to retreat!"
At publishing time, a group of CPAs had managed to establish a beachhead where they were desperately working to identify several depreciation errors by Iran's Ministry of the Interior.
I wonder what Old Janet Yellen would do? HAHAHAHA If Trump only had one executive order left in his bag, it should be that over the next two years, he would not sign any bill that added to the national debt and come what may.
But we know Trump loves debt and suppressed interest rates. Here's something he once said: I am the king of debt. I love debt. I love playing with it". Donnie is the perfect president to steer the USS Titanic into the debt iceberg straight ahead.
But how does our massive debt bring leverage to the US? Maybe since Trumps organizations have filed for bankruptcy 6 times he can just declare the US bankrupt and start all over again.
You specified Trump ( your TDS) not the government. I was responding to Trump and his use of bankruptcy laws to his benefit. Those laws and their function are there to protect a capitalistic system as well as the parties involved.
Some of those laws may not protect all parties involved. I lived in Philly when Trump's AC casinos went bankrupt and I remember reading stories about how Donnie screwed the small contractors sending some of them into bankruptcy. Perhaps I developed TDS Donnie flew off in his helicopter as the contractors scrambled to save their businesses.
Yes, some get hurt in the bankruptcy process, as some innocents get hurt in war. What do we call it, oh yeah, unfortunate collateral damage. War is a necessary evil but it has its place as a tool in geopolitics, as bankruptcy has its place in a capitalist system, that which has brought more people out of poverty than any other political-economic system. Bankruptcy is a necessary tool in that system. It does more good than harm in the overall picture.
And I read where Trump stiffed some of those contractors over shoddy work. If that was his m.o., to deliberately screw over small contractors, how would he ever get ANY contractor to do anything for him?
We all know what Trump should do and he doesn't need an EO to tell himself to do it. But, when you have a Congress who are all Democratic Socialists when it comes to spending, it becomes a competition to see who can come up with the best idea do more of it.
During Trump's 5+years in office the national debt has increased over $11 trillion. Even though the Repugs have control of both houses the deficit for 2026 is projected to be $2 trillion. And that's with the "Greatest Economy Ever". Looks like both teams share the blame for our unpayable debt.
The Repugs don't have full control of both houses. That's obvious! But both teams do share responsibility for the unpayable debt. But the dumocrats are more responsible. That's also obvious. Since push is coming to shove here the midterms are going to give us an answer to the question of whether Americans trust a bankrupt business man or communists wanting other people's money.
Both teams want other people's money for their own use. So why argue which team is worse? Given the Repugs "only" increased the debt by approximately $16.5 trillion this century while the Dims added $17.7 trillion. Arguing over which team is worse is like arguing over whether a drunk or cocaine addict should skipper the USS Titanic.
As far as communism, aren't we all commies now waiting with trepidation to see what the Central Planning Committee, the Fed, will do. Plus, Flock cameras and the Palentir Surveillance State would have been the wet dream of the KGB and Stasi.
This is just my simple opinion, but the more we hear about ways to control the interest rates, the more I believe there's a note of panic setting in at high levels. The powers to be know this "game" can't go on forever.
One thing sure: we aren't in the game, and that's by design. When it all goes down, it will be done in a manner to assure that most of the culprits skate with their ill-gotten gains. Best always. PM
I don't doubt that I'm not in the game. I'd guess what we do know is that the politicians will implement whatever it is that most likely retains their very lucrative overall system and their place in it. My guess is their first step is to retain the big banks and most smaller banks as the banks are currently the method out of the quagmire and that's what the Fed's purpose is. But this problem, being rather huge and significantly dangerous to their system, might require a second step. What might be a second step after bailing out the large banks doesn't work. Just because the bailouts have worked so far doesn't mean they'll work this time. I'm of a suspicion that we will not return to the old stock market rallying because of cheap money after all confidence was lost. Would there really be enough confidence to go back to a failed system? Seems to me we would have to return to a fully gold backed currency.
Ultimately, the outcome of an inflationary explosion or a deflationary implosion is the same. Both destroy debt, forcing a re-evaluation on both sides, assets and liabilities, with excesses nominally wrung from the system. Inflation empowers the debtor, assuming he is liquid enough to pay, and deflation empowers the creditor, assuming he is self-financed, able to meet cost of ownership. The process builds to a conclusion. Assets don't disappear; they just change hands. As the late, great Walter E. Williams said, "There is no reason to fear bankruptcy, unless, of course, you believe that the assets involved simply vanish into thin air!" Best always. PM
One thing that concerns me are the precious metals, since I'm an investor. It seems (from a purely impressionistic not studied perspective) that on days when stocks do well, the metals also do well; on days when stocks do poorly, the metals also do poorly. It's almost as if the market is saying: "We want assets other than Treasury paper, whether stocks or gold; or, we want Treasury paper and want neither stocks nor gold." And so: If/when the stock bubble bursts, what happens to the metals? Seems like a big selloff is the likely possibility as the whole thing deflates. If someone has thought this through, I would appreciate your comment.
If the market collapse is fairly sudden, metals prices will go down as investors sell off their gold to cover losses elsewhere. Prices rebound as the initial panic subsides, and as the Central banks start flooding the markets with liquidity and massive stimulus, thereby devaluing the dollar even more, metals prices rise as the dollar value falls. Theoretically...
Why can't they do what they want to do in their land? Our government basically tells us that the Zionists can do what they want in displacing the Palestinians and bombing several countries because some Israelis lived there 2000 years ago. Why not treat the Indians the same way?
I have financial advisors. The best is me. Many years ago I bought a property, and I simply forgot that it was interest only. My guy said he wouldn't do it with anybody but me. All good. I forgot about it. When I figured things out, Oh , my gosh.
I pay cash for everything. Let's just say somebody has a $8 million note, at 0.475 2043 maturity. Pretty sure I'll be long dead. I can write a check right now. The numbers have changed... inflation is still kinda robust. I'm paying debt with ever cheaper dollars.
Frankly, it's legacy at this point. I want a write a check. I'm guessing it's cheaper to pay with deflated dollars through a trust. Looking for some curve ball intelligent advice.
Good Morning Bill,
I am 81 years old and have been reading you since way before Substack. Some, as with anything, I have liked more than others. This was one that really hit the spot dead on. Thank you for all the years of interesting reads. Thanks to Tom and Dan as well.
Sincerely, Bob
AP Newswire PERSIAN GULF — Clutching their pens and calculators tightly, thousands of accountants boarded Higgins boats this morning in preparation for the launch of "Economic D-Day" against Iran.
Several of the men made their last, final update to their actuarial tables as the boats departed for the shores of Darak Beach.
"Men, some of you aren't coming back from this," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the accountants stared grimly across the water. "We do not know what Excel spreadsheets the enemy has prepared for us. Everything you have done to prepare, every page of The Accounting Game you studied, it all comes down to this. Failure is not an option. There must be a comprehensive review of the nation's accounts payable. Good luck and Godspeed!"
An eerie silence descended over the waters, broken only by the occasional whirr of someone sharpening a No. 2 pencil. Then, all at once, the silence was broken.
“GO! GO! GO!" shouted commanders as the landing ramps dropped. "MOVE! MOVE! MOVE! SECURE THOSE RECEIPTS!”
Chaos immediately ensued, with screams echoing across the beach as the accountants went to work.
"Sir! They're mixing capital expenditures with operating expenses!" screamed one accountant frantically. "We have to retreat!"
At publishing time, a group of CPAs had managed to establish a beachhead where they were desperately working to identify several depreciation errors by Iran's Ministry of the Interior.
[From the Babylon Bee]
That would be preferable to sending our sons there to die for Israel.
I didn’t create that. From the Babylon Bee. I’ll go back and footnote the post. Should have done that initially.
Fun read
I wonder what Old Janet Yellen would do? HAHAHAHA If Trump only had one executive order left in his bag, it should be that over the next two years, he would not sign any bill that added to the national debt and come what may.
But we know Trump loves debt and suppressed interest rates. Here's something he once said: I am the king of debt. I love debt. I love playing with it". Donnie is the perfect president to steer the USS Titanic into the debt iceberg straight ahead.
Trump knows that massive debt brings massive leverage when dealing with whore bankers. He becomes to big to fail.
But how does our massive debt bring leverage to the US? Maybe since Trumps organizations have filed for bankruptcy 6 times he can just declare the US bankrupt and start all over again.
You specified Trump ( your TDS) not the government. I was responding to Trump and his use of bankruptcy laws to his benefit. Those laws and their function are there to protect a capitalistic system as well as the parties involved.
Some of those laws may not protect all parties involved. I lived in Philly when Trump's AC casinos went bankrupt and I remember reading stories about how Donnie screwed the small contractors sending some of them into bankruptcy. Perhaps I developed TDS Donnie flew off in his helicopter as the contractors scrambled to save their businesses.
Trump's businesses filed for chapter 11.
Said to be because of the gambling the venture downturn.
Trumps wasn't the only casino's to be hit.
Las Vegas was hit hard during the great recession.
LV and Atlantic City lost clientele likely due to the proliferation of Injun Casio's.
IMO Injun Casino's are a step too far beyond reparations...
Why are Indians allowed to do what no other citizens are allowed?
Yes, some get hurt in the bankruptcy process, as some innocents get hurt in war. What do we call it, oh yeah, unfortunate collateral damage. War is a necessary evil but it has its place as a tool in geopolitics, as bankruptcy has its place in a capitalist system, that which has brought more people out of poverty than any other political-economic system. Bankruptcy is a necessary tool in that system. It does more good than harm in the overall picture.
And I read where Trump stiffed some of those contractors over shoddy work. If that was his m.o., to deliberately screw over small contractors, how would he ever get ANY contractor to do anything for him?
Surprisingly, I believe that repudiating the national debt is the only honorable thing to do.
I recommend selling Tbills and bonds ASAP.
We all know what Trump should do and he doesn't need an EO to tell himself to do it. But, when you have a Congress who are all Democratic Socialists when it comes to spending, it becomes a competition to see who can come up with the best idea do more of it.
During Trump's 5+years in office the national debt has increased over $11 trillion. Even though the Repugs have control of both houses the deficit for 2026 is projected to be $2 trillion. And that's with the "Greatest Economy Ever". Looks like both teams share the blame for our unpayable debt.
The Repugs don't have full control of both houses. That's obvious! But both teams do share responsibility for the unpayable debt. But the dumocrats are more responsible. That's also obvious. Since push is coming to shove here the midterms are going to give us an answer to the question of whether Americans trust a bankrupt business man or communists wanting other people's money.
Both teams want other people's money for their own use. So why argue which team is worse? Given the Repugs "only" increased the debt by approximately $16.5 trillion this century while the Dims added $17.7 trillion. Arguing over which team is worse is like arguing over whether a drunk or cocaine addict should skipper the USS Titanic.
As far as communism, aren't we all commies now waiting with trepidation to see what the Central Planning Committee, the Fed, will do. Plus, Flock cameras and the Palentir Surveillance State would have been the wet dream of the KGB and Stasi.
You are correct without any doubt.
This is just my simple opinion, but the more we hear about ways to control the interest rates, the more I believe there's a note of panic setting in at high levels. The powers to be know this "game" can't go on forever.
Jim Marshall
One thing sure: we aren't in the game, and that's by design. When it all goes down, it will be done in a manner to assure that most of the culprits skate with their ill-gotten gains. Best always. PM
I don't doubt that I'm not in the game. I'd guess what we do know is that the politicians will implement whatever it is that most likely retains their very lucrative overall system and their place in it. My guess is their first step is to retain the big banks and most smaller banks as the banks are currently the method out of the quagmire and that's what the Fed's purpose is. But this problem, being rather huge and significantly dangerous to their system, might require a second step. What might be a second step after bailing out the large banks doesn't work. Just because the bailouts have worked so far doesn't mean they'll work this time. I'm of a suspicion that we will not return to the old stock market rallying because of cheap money after all confidence was lost. Would there really be enough confidence to go back to a failed system? Seems to me we would have to return to a fully gold backed currency.
When it comes to who gets out with his skin on, I'm betting on the Insiders. I'm not an Insider. If you are, all the better. Best always. PM
Ultimately, the outcome of an inflationary explosion or a deflationary implosion is the same. Both destroy debt, forcing a re-evaluation on both sides, assets and liabilities, with excesses nominally wrung from the system. Inflation empowers the debtor, assuming he is liquid enough to pay, and deflation empowers the creditor, assuming he is self-financed, able to meet cost of ownership. The process builds to a conclusion. Assets don't disappear; they just change hands. As the late, great Walter E. Williams said, "There is no reason to fear bankruptcy, unless, of course, you believe that the assets involved simply vanish into thin air!" Best always. PM
One thing that concerns me are the precious metals, since I'm an investor. It seems (from a purely impressionistic not studied perspective) that on days when stocks do well, the metals also do well; on days when stocks do poorly, the metals also do poorly. It's almost as if the market is saying: "We want assets other than Treasury paper, whether stocks or gold; or, we want Treasury paper and want neither stocks nor gold." And so: If/when the stock bubble bursts, what happens to the metals? Seems like a big selloff is the likely possibility as the whole thing deflates. If someone has thought this through, I would appreciate your comment.
If the market collapse is fairly sudden, metals prices will go down as investors sell off their gold to cover losses elsewhere. Prices rebound as the initial panic subsides, and as the Central banks start flooding the markets with liquidity and massive stimulus, thereby devaluing the dollar even more, metals prices rise as the dollar value falls. Theoretically...
Why can't they do what they want to do in their land? Our government basically tells us that the Zionists can do what they want in displacing the Palestinians and bombing several countries because some Israelis lived there 2000 years ago. Why not treat the Indians the same way?
😂😂👏👏 Oh brother, they're gonna hate you for that!
I have financial advisors. The best is me. Many years ago I bought a property, and I simply forgot that it was interest only. My guy said he wouldn't do it with anybody but me. All good. I forgot about it. When I figured things out, Oh , my gosh.
I pay cash for everything. Let's just say somebody has a $8 million note, at 0.475 2043 maturity. Pretty sure I'll be long dead. I can write a check right now. The numbers have changed... inflation is still kinda robust. I'm paying debt with ever cheaper dollars.
Frankly, it's legacy at this point. I want a write a check. I'm guessing it's cheaper to pay with deflated dollars through a trust. Looking for some curve ball intelligent advice.