An interesting history review. The key summary of the current situation is it will take a long time to restore the flow of oil to the refineries and the end products to the consumers. Yes it will be painful.
The goal remains, stop Iran from having nuclear weapons. For the sake of the "world", that will be a good result from this "intervention". You are either a sheep or a wolf.....I prefer being a wolf.
As it say in the bible, "there is nothing new under the sun".
The only problem with that view point is Iran may now necessarily feel the same way given, our understanding of the past. Not that anyone keeps track of it, as it is understood. Reminds me of Charles Mackay's - The Madness of Crowds - Convid is a CLASSIC ezample.
I get your point Pete but we (the US) has done nothing for about 50 years to stop the crazy Iran actions. We and the world have paid a steep price. I don't like everything Trump says but he's the only president who faced the bully head on. I'll continue to support this action.
Your fear of Iran having a nuclear weapon may be mitigated if not dissipated when you include in your calculus that Iran has no capability to deliver one.
And, of course, there's MAD; that is, Mutually Assured Destruction. It will suppress Iran's disposition to use a nuclear weapon should it ever acquire one.
More: Israel miscalculated when it created a trove of nuclear weapons to intimidate its Muslim neighbors, nearly all of whom are Arab.
Instead, it provoked the Persians to emulate Israel's capability (triggering a proverbial "arms race" ).
I've often wondered if the US had compelled Israel to stop surreptitiously creating nuclear weapons then would Iran have stopped its program too.
And to think this festering feud is due to the displacement of mostly Muslims by Jewish survivors of a murderous pogrom conducted by European Christians.
Jimm, there's about 4000 years of history where Persia has been trying to wipe out Israel. If I was in Israel's shoes I would take the same approach. After 632 AD when the Muslim religion was created, it's been constant war between the two groups. It will never stop. The history is well documented.
Islam is a CULT and should be eradicated from the world. They kill their own people, always support terrorism everywhere, HATE most everyone and are trying to re-populate the world via having lots of kids and via immagration with their crap.
They now have elected muslims to leadership positons in many cities & countries and are trying to control cities, states & countries via political majority. Look at Dearborn & Hamtramic, MI and Minnesota, New York, Texas, Seattle, etc. Duh - They are succeeding. Thank God I wouldnt be around when they succeed in controlling most states and our national government.
Eugene, Agree 100%. I live 50 miles west of Dearborn...a crap hole today. They have even changed the wording on their police badges to Arabic letters. Coldwater MI. is 120 miles S.W. from me and their population is growing rapidly. My brother lives there, out in the country, and he constantly reminds me the city is being taken over. At 79 I won't see the end game and I am glad.
Although I highly doubt a religious contretemps between Israel and Persia has existed for 4000 years, a time when tribes not countries existed, I admit that I am not a student of it.
However, you've piqued my interest -- especially how a tribal feud morphed into a religious feud following Europe's post WW II relocation of its remaining Jewish population to from whence it originated.
My guess is it's attributable to Mohamed who proselytized his religion by the sword (now on view in a museum in Istanbul and symbolically displayed on Saudi Arabia''s flag)
Regardless, my points remain: Iran has no delivery capability and MAD is a genuine deterrent.
Jim, these people are Baby Boomers who watch Fox News. They will never see the truth for what it is. Iran has absolutely no opportunity to hurt us. But these fools will repeat whatever is said on Fox News. God forbid they should listen to John Mearsheimer, Escobar, or Jeffrey Sachs.
I was about to comment to you that radical Muslim groups believe that jihad will be a way to heaven. That is why MAD won’t work with them. They don’t care because they are doing the will of Allah.
Trump has made it more likely that Iran will acquire nukes. It’s the rational thing for them to do. And arrogant Americans with their expensive weapons can’t do Ba a single thing about it.
Well Bill as you have always said history does not repeat itself rather it rhymes with itself. The comparison between Trump and Ashurbanipal is a non sequitur. Obviously there is a significant difference historically between 669 and 2026. The technology as well as the geopolitical world is different by a factor of several centuries. The lethality of the world has also compounded by a factor of centuries where in Ashurbanipal's time civilizations were destroyed where in the present time the world has the power to destroy itself, and Iran has a belief system that supports such a narrative and the reglious fever to move such destruction foward if allowed. If not Trump then who? Open the Strait and maintain control over Iranian ports and it is game over.
The difficult part is opening the strait. Lots of videos saying we can do it but the real question is who goes through first to see if it is open. Also because of the short distance to shore there is very little time to react to missiles and drones. I don’t see any other alternative. The IRGC doesn’t care about the people of Iran only their power and money. Time will tell. The good part is Trump isn’t worrying about getting reelected so I hope he sees this through. Wasn’t it Bush that said Islam is a religion of peace? Spans both stupid political parties.
Yes Bill, back in the good old days, the victors would erase their enemies and destroy their existence. Here in America, we have a party/cult who not only opens the borders freely for our enemies, but pays and supports them to come. Now they even hold political positions and have the power to expand their evil agenda. My question to you is why would you support this over a president who is willing to do the work that should have been done 50 years ago? I’m sure your answer would be as simple as your current thinking. Anyway, I’m happy President Trump continues to win, and the insane left continues to gravel in their demented minds. And we haven’t seen anything yet 😊🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Where is the encouragement from the "Greenies"? Trump in two months has cut the use of oil more than all the carbon credits and protests have ever! Al Gore should be so supportive of Trump, with this cut back in oil use the world could last until 2015. Oh I guess it has already.
Somehow we seem to believe this won't affect us other than higher prices. The US imports millions of barrels of oil. Without them we'll be short diesel and jet fuel. And more billions we need to fix our roads and bridges. All because, once again, some Middle Eastern country could eventually have weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan and North Korea already do. Why don't we not care about them? Could it be they don't have oil? This is about oil, not nukes.
Anne, there is a huge difference between and among the countries you have cited and Iran. Iran is a theocracy as I am sure you are aware. As such they are governed and directed by religious fanatics guided by their religious goals and not for the good of those governed. That cannot be said of the other countries you have mentioned. To be sure, due to the beliefs of the ruling class, they are very, very dangerous. But then I think you knew all of this before you posted, which makes be think you have alterior motives?
North Korea isn't fanatical? He actually tried to shoot a missile at us. Pakistan hid Bin Laden for how long? Agree Iran's definitely a threat to its neighbors but so is Israel to be fair. We're not their neighbor.
Yes, a missile and not an earnest attempt. But Iran, a bomb, which at this point can hit central Europe and maybe your state. The threat level is quite different.
So Bill, I can mark you down as a “no” for DJT? Fair enough. Now that you have identified the problem please explain to us specifically who holds the solution.
Bill don't solve problems, he just arm chair quarterbacks with information after it suits him. Just be glad that we don't have Biden, Blinken and Milley running this show. I think we (United States and Israel) are finally going to finish a war, liberate the people, and establish a zone of traffic in the Middle East that will benefit everybody (friends and enemies) rather than a bunch of terrorists. They should start getting underground right now, because its coming, and when we get done with Iran, Yemen is next.
I believe that the consequences of the choices we have made far outweigh the consequences of the choices we would have left to fate...
‘I cannot do away with the strife in my country and the dissensions in my family; disturbing scandals oppress me always. Illness of mind and flesh bow me down; with cries of woe I bring my days to an end. I am wretched; death is seizing hold upon me, and bears me down...’
Et tu, Billy, there is always room for one more...
Interesting analogy regarding shower water, Bill. The Big Man claims that his Executive Order (14264) last April “made showers great again.” So we do actually get more shower water flow now! He thought of everything, the buggah!
For over half a century, OPEC has tyrannized the industrial world. Using threats of oil shortages or sky-high prices, OPEC members often agreed to cut back 70-80% of their capacities, Victor Davis Hanson reminds readers of American Greatness.
OPEC, no longer the powerhouse monopoly of the 1970s, today accounts for barely half the world’s exported oil. Meantime today, the US, the largest producer of oil and gas in history, is struggling to meet increased demand for American oil. And Venezuela, rebooted, has reached a seven-year high in its renewed output. With Maduro’s regime gone, the country promises faster escalation in oil output.
Even with Russia’s oil still sanctioned, it has started to appear on the world markets. The Kremlin has upped exports by a quarter-million barrels per day.
As VDH notes, “Add it all up, and Iran’s 1.5–2 million barrels may not be all that missed, as the world price may fall by summer—regardless of Iran’s status.”
Redefining the Middle East is a combination of a neutered Iran and a foolish targeting of the Gulf nations.
How odd for Arab nations to be urging the US to continue bombing Middle Eastern nations. The Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), however, are frantically asking America to end the nearby Iranian theocracy for good.
The Gulf states were hit by six times as many Iranian rockets and drones as Israel. By itself, the Jewish state poses no threat to Persian Gulf exporters.
What we are seeing is a more realistic, less ideological Gulf council that is beginning to accept the fact that in the Middle East, Israel alone has the combat aircraft, expertise, and experience to strike Iran and deter it from attacking moderate Arab governments.
Arising is the specter is the new de facto alliance of mutual advantage between Israel and much of the Arab world, one that would isolate Iran, along with Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
If the previous catalyst for the Abraham Accords détente was American pressure, it may soon become Arab self-interest.
In Need of Cash
Cash is in short supply for Iran’s three terrorist cabals. One wonders, in a post-war Iran, if Iran will be able to fund billions of dollars subsidizing terrorists that increasingly have little support in the Arab world?
VDH asks, will a destitute Iran be able to replace its half-century-long, half-trillion-dollar investment in its military-industrial complex, now in ruins?
OPEC, Not the Only Loser.
Having previously lost its Syrian proxy, Russia is now effectively cut off from the Middle East with the loss of its client Iran, a separation that could become permanent should theocracy fall.
Moscow, trapped in a four-year quagmire in Ukraine, has on its hands dead and wounded approaching two million. Its economy is on the brink of depression, continues VDH.
Putin’s problems are endless. His nation, in terms of landmass, is the largest in the world, but the population has shriveled to 145 million from 290 million people due to aging and demographics. Putin may be more inclined to seek détente with the West when he considers that large countries have abundant natural resources and relatively small, diminishing populations draw the attention of a “nearby rapacious China.”
China, under American pressure in Panama and having lost much of its influence with oil-rich Venezuela, is scrambling in vain to find new oil producers desperate to unload their sanctioned oil… China is as dependent on foreign sources of energy as the US is self-sufficient.
China will continue keeping its eye on Taiwan. American naval and aerial prowess will continue to thwart her, just as China has been disappointed by the inability of the Russian army to overrun a much smaller and less well-armed Ukraine.
Will China absorb these lessons and rethink the viability of sending an amphibious fleet across some 110 miles of open sea and then landing hundreds of thousands of People’s Liberation Army soldiers on the beaches of Taiwan—amid skies full of drones and missiles and a sea of maritime drone ships and submarines?
Europe was also a big loser due to the war.
The temporary closing of the Strait of Hormuz reminded the oil-dependent European Union that its radical green agenda was unsustainable. The continent retains a desperate need to find safe and reliable exporters of affordable fossil fuels.
As VDH notes, many NATO members—Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom in particular—will regret their loud opposition to allowing the US to stealthily use their airspace and joint NATO bases.
Even though many Europeans despise Trump, they still need America’s might and military protection.
Yes, many European hearts want to restrain/weaken the Trump-led Americans, notes VDH.
But their heads told them that the American-guided demise of the Iranian theocracy meant fewer existential threats to Europe from the Middle East, fewer violent Arab clients and proxies in the region, and fewer subsidized terrorists in their own backyards.
Trump visited The Villages, the old age giant trailer park, near Leesburg, FL. Where people come to die, a progression from pickle ball to a catatonic state in a rocking chair.
Could be an interesting sociological study.
It is Trump land; he is beefing up support in MAGA Land.
The midterms are a looming disaster.
Can anyone say, one, two, three, “Regime Change.”
And all the tottering gray heads say, kill the 90 million, stop Iran’s nukes.
Iran has no nukes, through 39 years of sanctions, they had no nukes. They want nukes now, and they have shown that they have had the sophistication to build them.
The most dangerous country with nukes is Israel, the second is the US.
The US dropped them twice, Nagasaki as an after thought when the original target was clouded over.
Bill - Why don't you just stick to investment recommendations and forget all of your political mussings. They just waste my time. I always look forward to your investment recommendations. Just wish you could highlight those upfront in your writings, so I don;t have to read all of your political crap in order to read your investment recommendations. Your political stuff may be true or just opinions, but you were all over Biden when he was in office and now you are all over Trump. I get it, you totally don't care for any politians, you just wish they would do what you recommend.
It's as if Bill never took an economics class. A billion barrels less oil? Hmmm, does that mean less Supply? And what are those other two things.... Oh Right!! Demand and Price. Absent stupid government interference, if the supply is constrained then there will be some combination of reduced Demand and increased Price. The Market will ration the supply, as it does for every single thing humans need except the air we breathe. The only truly Free thing on the planet.
This is a good review of parallels with possible futures. One could build a similar review based on Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon whom Jeremiah describes as "my servant" or Cyrus of Persia who took down Babylon in due course (as Jeremiah had predicted) and subsidized the return of the exiles to rebuild Jerusalem and the Temple. BB's scenarios are all plausible frameworks for the future with varying likelihoods controlled less by our plans and more by the intents of the Creator of Heaven and Earth (as Lincoln prophetically noted in his Second Inaugural). Which will be the key players in what actually unfolds? Will it be Sodom on the Bay, Rome on the Potomac, Babylon on the Hudson, Nineveh on the Lakes, Paris on the Gulf of American, etc. etc. or more likely "all of the above". We inhabit an empire that is both much larger than the world of the ME empires in which the writers of the Testimonies lived, and about the relative size of the people of the Promised Land relative to the rest of the world. Being aware of the past parallels is useful, if not definitive.
Not following the logic here. We'll simply see a loss of a billion barrels of oil? An interruption in supply (to Asia and the EU) -yes, but a total loss of a billion barrels of oil, I can't see unless Iran allows its Wells to collapse rather than capitulate on nuclear arms.
But, not to be needlessly combative, perhaps I'm missing something...
I have quoted inflation data from McGraw Hill publication ENR Magazine in the past. Their 2025 data documented that inflation in the construction industry of around 4% was predominantly domestic labor wage inflation, with only about 0.5% related to material and equipment imports - which is about to change.
They now warn of an entirely new supply interruption (which will be inflationary) related to many of the products of oil, such as phosphate fertilizer. Mostly originating from bottlenecks created in the now damaged facilities in the neighboring nations that had been targeted by Iran.
An ENR Editorial makes the observation that bringing supplies up to previous production levels won't be accomplished by building entirely new facilities. It will be done by repairing existing facility damage. The kicker here is that these repairs will necessarily involve shutting down unaffected portions of the facilities. Anyone familiar with Refinery or Process Plant "shutdown for turnaround" procedures will understand this need. Things will get worse before they get better.
In a nutshell, constrained shipments today will also give us more constrained shipments for an appreciable period moving forward. Now, compounding the effect of pre-existing supply constraints of critical equipment such as Switchgear, Transformers and Turbines due to ongoing longer-term US domestic projects such as existing Transmission & Distribution upgrading and their attendant Switchyards and Substations and now, new AI Datacenter build-out and a nuclear power renaissance...
Manufacturers of critical equipment, both here and abroad, are currently booked up with a backlog of > four years. Those with specialized knowledge of the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) required to design and build these highly technical facilities, are in critically short supply.
Forgetting the blame-game with Trump for a moment, this obviously has implication for investment both domestically and worldwide. Perhaps we could see some analysis here that informs an investment strategy?
An interesting history review. The key summary of the current situation is it will take a long time to restore the flow of oil to the refineries and the end products to the consumers. Yes it will be painful.
The goal remains, stop Iran from having nuclear weapons. For the sake of the "world", that will be a good result from this "intervention". You are either a sheep or a wolf.....I prefer being a wolf.
As it say in the bible, "there is nothing new under the sun".
Jim Marshall
The only problem with that view point is Iran may now necessarily feel the same way given, our understanding of the past. Not that anyone keeps track of it, as it is understood. Reminds me of Charles Mackay's - The Madness of Crowds - Convid is a CLASSIC ezample.
I get your point Pete but we (the US) has done nothing for about 50 years to stop the crazy Iran actions. We and the world have paid a steep price. I don't like everything Trump says but he's the only president who faced the bully head on. I'll continue to support this action.
Jim Marshall
Jim --
Your fear of Iran having a nuclear weapon may be mitigated if not dissipated when you include in your calculus that Iran has no capability to deliver one.
And, of course, there's MAD; that is, Mutually Assured Destruction. It will suppress Iran's disposition to use a nuclear weapon should it ever acquire one.
More: Israel miscalculated when it created a trove of nuclear weapons to intimidate its Muslim neighbors, nearly all of whom are Arab.
Instead, it provoked the Persians to emulate Israel's capability (triggering a proverbial "arms race" ).
I've often wondered if the US had compelled Israel to stop surreptitiously creating nuclear weapons then would Iran have stopped its program too.
And to think this festering feud is due to the displacement of mostly Muslims by Jewish survivors of a murderous pogrom conducted by European Christians.
Jimm, there's about 4000 years of history where Persia has been trying to wipe out Israel. If I was in Israel's shoes I would take the same approach. After 632 AD when the Muslim religion was created, it's been constant war between the two groups. It will never stop. The history is well documented.
Islam is a CULT and should be eradicated from the world. They kill their own people, always support terrorism everywhere, HATE most everyone and are trying to re-populate the world via having lots of kids and via immagration with their crap.
They now have elected muslims to leadership positons in many cities & countries and are trying to control cities, states & countries via political majority. Look at Dearborn & Hamtramic, MI and Minnesota, New York, Texas, Seattle, etc. Duh - They are succeeding. Thank God I wouldnt be around when they succeed in controlling most states and our national government.
Nuff said.
Eugene, Agree 100%. I live 50 miles west of Dearborn...a crap hole today. They have even changed the wording on their police badges to Arabic letters. Coldwater MI. is 120 miles S.W. from me and their population is growing rapidly. My brother lives there, out in the country, and he constantly reminds me the city is being taken over. At 79 I won't see the end game and I am glad.
Jim
Jim --
Although I highly doubt a religious contretemps between Israel and Persia has existed for 4000 years, a time when tribes not countries existed, I admit that I am not a student of it.
However, you've piqued my interest -- especially how a tribal feud morphed into a religious feud following Europe's post WW II relocation of its remaining Jewish population to from whence it originated.
My guess is it's attributable to Mohamed who proselytized his religion by the sword (now on view in a museum in Istanbul and symbolically displayed on Saudi Arabia''s flag)
Regardless, my points remain: Iran has no delivery capability and MAD is a genuine deterrent.
Iran's ballistic missiles travel further than previously calculated.
It would be just a matter of a short time to acquire nukes and the ICBM capability.
They do have the range to hit Europe.
-
From the Quran:
"kill the idolaters wherever you find them and take them prisoners, and beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them at every place of ambush."
Some claim this verse taken out of context is not recognized by Muslims; declaring they do not want to murder ALL infidels...
The events that occurred Oct 7th 2023 seems to disprove any claims of non-violence and forgiveness by Muslims.
Jim, these people are Baby Boomers who watch Fox News. They will never see the truth for what it is. Iran has absolutely no opportunity to hurt us. But these fools will repeat whatever is said on Fox News. God forbid they should listen to John Mearsheimer, Escobar, or Jeffrey Sachs.
It will stop someday-Read The Book of Revelation. Gods for telling of future history.
-M.A.D. doesn't work with folks that are mad.
-Surrounded by enemies, Israel did not miscalculate.
-My understanding Persians and the IRGC are not the same.
-The Quran is the only entity that could stop Muslims from seeking Allah
-Israel and Judah are ancient; post WWII was a reunification.
Icebergs, I accept your first assertion. I'm not informed well enough to address the rest.
I was about to comment to you that radical Muslim groups believe that jihad will be a way to heaven. That is why MAD won’t work with them. They don’t care because they are doing the will of Allah.
Trump has made it more likely that Iran will acquire nukes. It’s the rational thing for them to do. And arrogant Americans with their expensive weapons can’t do Ba a single thing about it.
Benny and Mossad sold Trump a plan that has backfired. What is he willing to do to save face, and at what cost?
No! Trump & Israel are trying to eliminate TERRORISM, once and for all. PERIOD!
Why can't so many people see that?
Well Bill as you have always said history does not repeat itself rather it rhymes with itself. The comparison between Trump and Ashurbanipal is a non sequitur. Obviously there is a significant difference historically between 669 and 2026. The technology as well as the geopolitical world is different by a factor of several centuries. The lethality of the world has also compounded by a factor of centuries where in Ashurbanipal's time civilizations were destroyed where in the present time the world has the power to destroy itself, and Iran has a belief system that supports such a narrative and the reglious fever to move such destruction foward if allowed. If not Trump then who? Open the Strait and maintain control over Iranian ports and it is game over.
I was thinking the same thing. He's comparing apples to oranges.
Yup, part of his MO
The difficult part is opening the strait. Lots of videos saying we can do it but the real question is who goes through first to see if it is open. Also because of the short distance to shore there is very little time to react to missiles and drones. I don’t see any other alternative. The IRGC doesn’t care about the people of Iran only their power and money. Time will tell. The good part is Trump isn’t worrying about getting reelected so I hope he sees this through. Wasn’t it Bush that said Islam is a religion of peace? Spans both stupid political parties.
Yes Bill, back in the good old days, the victors would erase their enemies and destroy their existence. Here in America, we have a party/cult who not only opens the borders freely for our enemies, but pays and supports them to come. Now they even hold political positions and have the power to expand their evil agenda. My question to you is why would you support this over a president who is willing to do the work that should have been done 50 years ago? I’m sure your answer would be as simple as your current thinking. Anyway, I’m happy President Trump continues to win, and the insane left continues to gravel in their demented minds. And we haven’t seen anything yet 😊🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Where is the encouragement from the "Greenies"? Trump in two months has cut the use of oil more than all the carbon credits and protests have ever! Al Gore should be so supportive of Trump, with this cut back in oil use the world could last until 2015. Oh I guess it has already.
Somehow we seem to believe this won't affect us other than higher prices. The US imports millions of barrels of oil. Without them we'll be short diesel and jet fuel. And more billions we need to fix our roads and bridges. All because, once again, some Middle Eastern country could eventually have weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan and North Korea already do. Why don't we not care about them? Could it be they don't have oil? This is about oil, not nukes.
Anne, there is a huge difference between and among the countries you have cited and Iran. Iran is a theocracy as I am sure you are aware. As such they are governed and directed by religious fanatics guided by their religious goals and not for the good of those governed. That cannot be said of the other countries you have mentioned. To be sure, due to the beliefs of the ruling class, they are very, very dangerous. But then I think you knew all of this before you posted, which makes be think you have alterior motives?
They are not as fanatical as the IRGC.
North Korea isn't fanatical? He actually tried to shoot a missile at us. Pakistan hid Bin Laden for how long? Agree Iran's definitely a threat to its neighbors but so is Israel to be fair. We're not their neighbor.
Yes, a missile and not an earnest attempt. But Iran, a bomb, which at this point can hit central Europe and maybe your state. The threat level is quite different.
So Bill, I can mark you down as a “no” for DJT? Fair enough. Now that you have identified the problem please explain to us specifically who holds the solution.
Bill don't solve problems, he just arm chair quarterbacks with information after it suits him. Just be glad that we don't have Biden, Blinken and Milley running this show. I think we (United States and Israel) are finally going to finish a war, liberate the people, and establish a zone of traffic in the Middle East that will benefit everybody (friends and enemies) rather than a bunch of terrorists. They should start getting underground right now, because its coming, and when we get done with Iran, Yemen is next.
How did this work out for Iraq and their weapons of mass destruction…Afghanistan any better?
I believe that the consequences of the choices we have made far outweigh the consequences of the choices we would have left to fate...
‘I cannot do away with the strife in my country and the dissensions in my family; disturbing scandals oppress me always. Illness of mind and flesh bow me down; with cries of woe I bring my days to an end. I am wretched; death is seizing hold upon me, and bears me down...’
Et tu, Billy, there is always room for one more...
Must say, well done … 😎
Interesting analogy regarding shower water, Bill. The Big Man claims that his Executive Order (14264) last April “made showers great again.” So we do actually get more shower water flow now! He thought of everything, the buggah!
Here's another protective:
Only Ripples, No Waves
Debbie Young
May 5, 2026
For over half a century, OPEC has tyrannized the industrial world. Using threats of oil shortages or sky-high prices, OPEC members often agreed to cut back 70-80% of their capacities, Victor Davis Hanson reminds readers of American Greatness.
OPEC, no longer the powerhouse monopoly of the 1970s, today accounts for barely half the world’s exported oil. Meantime today, the US, the largest producer of oil and gas in history, is struggling to meet increased demand for American oil. And Venezuela, rebooted, has reached a seven-year high in its renewed output. With Maduro’s regime gone, the country promises faster escalation in oil output.
Even with Russia’s oil still sanctioned, it has started to appear on the world markets. The Kremlin has upped exports by a quarter-million barrels per day.
As VDH notes, “Add it all up, and Iran’s 1.5–2 million barrels may not be all that missed, as the world price may fall by summer—regardless of Iran’s status.”
Redefining the Middle East is a combination of a neutered Iran and a foolish targeting of the Gulf nations.
How odd for Arab nations to be urging the US to continue bombing Middle Eastern nations. The Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), however, are frantically asking America to end the nearby Iranian theocracy for good.
The Gulf states were hit by six times as many Iranian rockets and drones as Israel. By itself, the Jewish state poses no threat to Persian Gulf exporters.
What we are seeing is a more realistic, less ideological Gulf council that is beginning to accept the fact that in the Middle East, Israel alone has the combat aircraft, expertise, and experience to strike Iran and deter it from attacking moderate Arab governments.
Arising is the specter is the new de facto alliance of mutual advantage between Israel and much of the Arab world, one that would isolate Iran, along with Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
If the previous catalyst for the Abraham Accords détente was American pressure, it may soon become Arab self-interest.
In Need of Cash
Cash is in short supply for Iran’s three terrorist cabals. One wonders, in a post-war Iran, if Iran will be able to fund billions of dollars subsidizing terrorists that increasingly have little support in the Arab world?
VDH asks, will a destitute Iran be able to replace its half-century-long, half-trillion-dollar investment in its military-industrial complex, now in ruins?
OPEC, Not the Only Loser.
Having previously lost its Syrian proxy, Russia is now effectively cut off from the Middle East with the loss of its client Iran, a separation that could become permanent should theocracy fall.
Moscow, trapped in a four-year quagmire in Ukraine, has on its hands dead and wounded approaching two million. Its economy is on the brink of depression, continues VDH.
Putin’s problems are endless. His nation, in terms of landmass, is the largest in the world, but the population has shriveled to 145 million from 290 million people due to aging and demographics. Putin may be more inclined to seek détente with the West when he considers that large countries have abundant natural resources and relatively small, diminishing populations draw the attention of a “nearby rapacious China.”
China, under American pressure in Panama and having lost much of its influence with oil-rich Venezuela, is scrambling in vain to find new oil producers desperate to unload their sanctioned oil… China is as dependent on foreign sources of energy as the US is self-sufficient.
China will continue keeping its eye on Taiwan. American naval and aerial prowess will continue to thwart her, just as China has been disappointed by the inability of the Russian army to overrun a much smaller and less well-armed Ukraine.
Will China absorb these lessons and rethink the viability of sending an amphibious fleet across some 110 miles of open sea and then landing hundreds of thousands of People’s Liberation Army soldiers on the beaches of Taiwan—amid skies full of drones and missiles and a sea of maritime drone ships and submarines?
Europe was also a big loser due to the war.
The temporary closing of the Strait of Hormuz reminded the oil-dependent European Union that its radical green agenda was unsustainable. The continent retains a desperate need to find safe and reliable exporters of affordable fossil fuels.
As VDH notes, many NATO members—Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom in particular—will regret their loud opposition to allowing the US to stealthily use their airspace and joint NATO bases.
Even though many Europeans despise Trump, they still need America’s might and military protection.
Yes, many European hearts want to restrain/weaken the Trump-led Americans, notes VDH.
But their heads told them that the American-guided demise of the Iranian theocracy meant fewer existential threats to Europe from the Middle East, fewer violent Arab clients and proxies in the region, and fewer subsidized terrorists in their own backyards.
Thank you Eugene/Debbie🙏All facts and truths the left just can’t comprehend or just don’t want to🤔
Trump visited The Villages, the old age giant trailer park, near Leesburg, FL. Where people come to die, a progression from pickle ball to a catatonic state in a rocking chair.
Could be an interesting sociological study.
It is Trump land; he is beefing up support in MAGA Land.
The midterms are a looming disaster.
Can anyone say, one, two, three, “Regime Change.”
And all the tottering gray heads say, kill the 90 million, stop Iran’s nukes.
Iran has no nukes, through 39 years of sanctions, they had no nukes. They want nukes now, and they have shown that they have had the sophistication to build them.
The most dangerous country with nukes is Israel, the second is the US.
The US dropped them twice, Nagasaki as an after thought when the original target was clouded over.
Bill - Why don't you just stick to investment recommendations and forget all of your political mussings. They just waste my time. I always look forward to your investment recommendations. Just wish you could highlight those upfront in your writings, so I don;t have to read all of your political crap in order to read your investment recommendations. Your political stuff may be true or just opinions, but you were all over Biden when he was in office and now you are all over Trump. I get it, you totally don't care for any politians, you just wish they would do what you recommend.
I truly enjoy and learn from the musings…keep them coming
It's as if Bill never took an economics class. A billion barrels less oil? Hmmm, does that mean less Supply? And what are those other two things.... Oh Right!! Demand and Price. Absent stupid government interference, if the supply is constrained then there will be some combination of reduced Demand and increased Price. The Market will ration the supply, as it does for every single thing humans need except the air we breathe. The only truly Free thing on the planet.
And there will be increased supply elsewhere if prices stay elevated.
Is it possible that leaving a billion barrels of oil out of use will allow some healing of the earth?
This is a good review of parallels with possible futures. One could build a similar review based on Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon whom Jeremiah describes as "my servant" or Cyrus of Persia who took down Babylon in due course (as Jeremiah had predicted) and subsidized the return of the exiles to rebuild Jerusalem and the Temple. BB's scenarios are all plausible frameworks for the future with varying likelihoods controlled less by our plans and more by the intents of the Creator of Heaven and Earth (as Lincoln prophetically noted in his Second Inaugural). Which will be the key players in what actually unfolds? Will it be Sodom on the Bay, Rome on the Potomac, Babylon on the Hudson, Nineveh on the Lakes, Paris on the Gulf of American, etc. etc. or more likely "all of the above". We inhabit an empire that is both much larger than the world of the ME empires in which the writers of the Testimonies lived, and about the relative size of the people of the Promised Land relative to the rest of the world. Being aware of the past parallels is useful, if not definitive.
Well, just abit to esoteric for me but I am sure it makes sense.
Not following the logic here. We'll simply see a loss of a billion barrels of oil? An interruption in supply (to Asia and the EU) -yes, but a total loss of a billion barrels of oil, I can't see unless Iran allows its Wells to collapse rather than capitulate on nuclear arms.
But, not to be needlessly combative, perhaps I'm missing something...
I have quoted inflation data from McGraw Hill publication ENR Magazine in the past. Their 2025 data documented that inflation in the construction industry of around 4% was predominantly domestic labor wage inflation, with only about 0.5% related to material and equipment imports - which is about to change.
They now warn of an entirely new supply interruption (which will be inflationary) related to many of the products of oil, such as phosphate fertilizer. Mostly originating from bottlenecks created in the now damaged facilities in the neighboring nations that had been targeted by Iran.
An ENR Editorial makes the observation that bringing supplies up to previous production levels won't be accomplished by building entirely new facilities. It will be done by repairing existing facility damage. The kicker here is that these repairs will necessarily involve shutting down unaffected portions of the facilities. Anyone familiar with Refinery or Process Plant "shutdown for turnaround" procedures will understand this need. Things will get worse before they get better.
In a nutshell, constrained shipments today will also give us more constrained shipments for an appreciable period moving forward. Now, compounding the effect of pre-existing supply constraints of critical equipment such as Switchgear, Transformers and Turbines due to ongoing longer-term US domestic projects such as existing Transmission & Distribution upgrading and their attendant Switchyards and Substations and now, new AI Datacenter build-out and a nuclear power renaissance...
Manufacturers of critical equipment, both here and abroad, are currently booked up with a backlog of > four years. Those with specialized knowledge of the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) required to design and build these highly technical facilities, are in critically short supply.
Forgetting the blame-game with Trump for a moment, this obviously has implication for investment both domestically and worldwide. Perhaps we could see some analysis here that informs an investment strategy?