So before we leave, if the mullahs are still in charge we have no choice but to destroy their oil industry. You assume that they will have control of 20% of the world market. I predict closer to zero. If not us, the Israelis will do it. They have their own survival to worry about.
The promise is that after killing all the Saturday people they will then kill all the Sunday people. Atheists are even hated more so won't be safe either.
17 times every day a moslem praying 5 times a day curses/ condemns all Jews and Christians. Like saying a hail mary, a repeated set prayer against all Jews and Christians.
As a Christian it is hard for me to read your words. Having said that I most certainly agree with you. That current regime Is of the same ilk of the crew that killed Jesus. My brother we are in some very hard times.
Suppose the theories of the “experts” are correct. How long before major investments in Oman to build terminals that remove the Strait of Hormuz from the equation? I would bet it is before Iran becomes a superpower.
- ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon (NOT DONE YET).
The Hormuz thing is a tactical rather than strategic objective. As is regime change - Trump has said regime change would be nice, but if the current regime agrees to become a civilized nation that no longer tries to export ideology and violence, that's fine too.
Finally, the laws of economics apply here still. A usurious transit fee will result in pipelines from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia across the arabian peninsula to the Red Sea. Yes, will take years (some are already there though), but if Hormuz becomes too expensive or risky, alternatives will appear.
Trump is so evil. And the world is looking forward to his downfall and, unfortunately, for America's. He is delusional and the U.S. government is worthless. For the vast majority of American's it is horrific. But us humans just can't help ourselves. Dust to Dust - Ashes to Ashes.
Strange attitude for a Landing Signal Officer. Curious about your definitions of "vast majority" and "horrific", though, as from where I sit I just don't see that. Sure, America has problems. But who doesn't??
Blah blah blah blah blah - chuckle Schumer’s twin - except Schumer said the opposite when bidum was in office - you sir are an idiot. Period. End of story
Unfortunately, pipelines are vulnerable to cheap drones. As are refineries and other infrastructure.
As for the top of your missive, those are all tasks, not outcomes. As Prof Pope said (you can find an interesting interview on the Triggernomics podcast), the USA is tactically accurate but strategically compromised.
He also makes many rational arguments that air power has never won a war on its own, that killing the Iranian leadership will lead to regime change - tiba more fanatical regime, and boots on tge ground are the next step.
Agree, but buried pipelines are less vulnerable and more easily repaired than, say, port facilities once hostilities are over.
I think you could make a strong case that air power rather decisively won the Pacific war against Japan. Of course we needed boots on the ground for the island hopping campaign, but we never invaded the actual Japanese home islands yet they surrendered unconditionally once they accepted they couldn't stop US air power from devastating their country.
Irwin Rommel is famously quoted as saying "The war is lost" when seeing the first P-51's over Berlin. Finally, the Bay of Pigs invasion failed in part because Kennedy refused to supply air cover for the invasion. So it's (IMO) a bit of a specious argument. You can't win a war solely with air power. But you can't hope to fight one without it either.
Always happy to have a sensible debate. I have no love for the Iranian regime and generally side with Israel (wuth caveats), but question the desired outcomes and their feasibility.
You make a fair point about not winning a war without air power but I think your examples of Japan and Germany in WW2 are debatable. Winning the war militarily was maybe inevitable, but the peace was only achieved with millions of boots on the ground.
It also required justice to be meted out rather than revenge. The atrocities of the leaders were documented and presented in court with appropriate punishments handed out. Assassinating foreign leaders with drones and no trial is highly unlikely to lead to peace.
I attended a private briefing by an ex senior military leader last week who made the point that its easy to feel like you're winning at the start of an air war when you operate in a target rich environment but as time goes by you run out of things to bomb (unless you start on civilian infrastructure). Or to misquote Churchill "all you achieve is making the rubble bounce".
It is also likely that regime change will mean a more entrenched, hostile and paranoid IRGC leadership, strong uo future problems. Frankly, the time to bomb was during the uprising.
So what is a viable war aim? We could probably all live with a definition of "won" being an extreme case of mowing the grass, but not if in doing so you cut the power cable to your house.
Which brongs us to the Strait of Hormuz issue. Its a nightmare strategically as it has the potential to escalate to other nations restricting access to, or charging for, transit through narrow straits (canals and pilotage in the Bosphorous are not the same) and could bite us in the backside in the S China Sea.
Maybe the only solution to that is to tell Iran (and by extension China and India) that 2 can play that game and there will be a complete blockade where any tankers from Iran, including those that deviat from normal shipping lanes into Iranian waters, will be intercepted and sanctioned.
Anyway, ramble over, other opinions are available!
I too enjoy a spirited civil debate. Stepping back to the big picture, I think a serious question is, what does the world do with/about bad actors?
Chamberlain famously did nothing while Germany occupied the Sudetenland and invaded Czechoslovakia, which many feel emboldened Hitler. But, what else could Chamberlain have done?? Japan had already invaded Korea and Manchuria before Pearl Harbor. What did the US do? Ship scrap iron to Japan so they could make planes and ships. But, aside from *not* selling them iron, what could we have done? In both cases, I don't think there was any way to change the perception among the Axis decision makers that the Allies were weak.
Since WWII, the US has been the "World's Policeman", or as Madelaine Albright put it, the "Indispensable Country". Nobody likes it when the US throws its weight around, but whenever there's a global bully, everyone looks to the US to do something about it. In the current case of Iran, we have a fanatical (by our standards) regime with a stated goal of dominating the Middle East in general and destroying the State of Israel in particular. To accomplish that, they fund insurgent militias in several countries around Israel, and seek to extend their influence through longer range ballistic missiles, culminating in intercontinental range and tipped with nuclear weapons. IMO that cannot be ignored. When a madman says he wants to kill you, it is best to believe him.
So do we wait around and try to talk (negotiate) them out of it?? I believe we'd have the same success as if we had tried that with Hitler and Tojo. Nada. However, a declared war with the aim of taking control of the country would be horribly expensive, both in dollars and blood. Maybe, however, if every 10 years or they get a major haircut as long as they refuse to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, they'll eventually give up. If not, at least we keep the nuclear threat at bay.
In the current conflict, if we could just get hold of the 45kg of 60% U235 that they (claim to) have already made, I'd be prepared to declare victory and go home.
I agree that "something must be done" its the when and how I need some convincing on.
If the goal is "mow the grass, contain the U2O3", then what other options were there?
Let's start with the fact that Iran, like all dictatorships, greatest strength in negotiations is take it slow until the democracy gets bored or distracted by elections. Procrastinate, make concessions, break concessions and so on ad nauseum.
So rude out negotiated settlement.
2025 12 day war? Disrupt the physical means of production with B52s, fine. Assassination of scientists, morally dubious. Does that make Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, BAe Systems staff fair game? Could special forces have been committed while there was still an element of surprise for more certain outcomes, who knows...
2026, this time they know we're coming (yes I'm from the UK but lets just accept im on the side of "The West"). The U2O3 is dispersed across a huuuuge country. We don't know how much there is or where it is. And if its already 60% enriched its weeks to get it to 90% compared to years to get to 60%.
To digress slightly, whats to stop them buying a bomb or enriched material? The main reason is that they're a proxy war. China and Russia are just as nervous of nuclear armed Muslims as the West. China does not have a good record on treating Muslims well... So everyone's balancing a balloon on a pin hoping to apply just the right amount of pressure to keep it there without popping it. Trump came along and said "hold my beer" and popped that balloon, for fun.
So now, for better or worse, Iran has taken a military kicking, but is now waiting for Trump to lose interest and eyeing a big prize, $1bn a week in "tolls" from the Straits. What that leaves is regional instability in probably the worst spot in the world for EVERYONE except the Iranians. The price of energy is set at the margin (as are prices of refined products like fertiliser) so even if the USA is unlikely to suffer serious shortages (although refinery capacity is an issue), the public suffer higher prices and companies suffer if trading partners are pushed into recession or worse.
So my suggestion to call Irans bluff and force Irans nominal allies to reopen Hormuz is dangerous but potentially successful. Then build pipelines like crazy in the interim.
So how could it have been done differently? (And I'm aware this is easy to say from the sofa). Fund the resistance, support the rebellion with targeted strikes against the IRGC but let the people deal with the figure heads? Then you either have a compliant regime and you take the U203 nicely or you have chaos in which to take it by force.
What I don't like is assassination of foreign leaders, both from a moral and practical perspective. We will reap what we sow.
What I dont like is creating more chaos for the global economy that enriches your rivals at the expense of your allies.
What I dont like is setting precedents that cant be undone (tolls on shipping lanes WILL lead to more conflict).
What I dont like is people on the left calling me a fascist for supporting some of Trumps goals and now look like a chump, while on the other side Im accused by those on the right of TDS.
What I want is a stable investment environment so I can pretend im making money through judgement rather than luck 🤣
Anyway, that helped order some thoughts so thank you!
So the thing is this....now we regard Bill Bonner as credible and biased as MSNBC and CNN. Sigh. His right to opinions but not facts or his version of History distorted or half truths. He is who he is. I always say an independent is a Democrat with a white sheet over his head and an Isolationist is just a pacifist with another white sheet over his head. And both are folly and suicide by policy. Disaster for nation and the world.
Bill has TDS and feigns objectivity. FALSE. Bill is ALWAYS negative like EEYORE in Winnie The Pooh. Must be bore to be around and everyone just avoids him at parties.
NEVER POSITIVE. Always academic elitist and hypocritical. Feigned populist. He owns farms and plays farmers, like his ROOTS but along the way the Georgetown Crowd got to him and he went LEFT and ANTI WAR and ANTI GOVERNMENT and now is a hopeless crank. Thank GOD he isnt a domestic nihilist and anarchist, YET. And so we just roll our eyes, ignore mostly but also PUSH BACK so he doesnt get the notion his ideas are accepted or acceptable or liked. And people have the RIGHT to push back.
I dont like Hegseth either for MANY reasons. Trump is TRUMP and his rhetoric is humorous and sometimes odious and offensive but at the end of the day HE WAS ELECTED and HE HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY and ENORMOUS PRESSURE and so long as HE is doing his best and what is best for NATION with ADVICE from counselors (some good, some bad and some indifferent or weak) we have to give TRUMP his day and let him BE TRUMP AND BE PRESIDENT and DECIDER IN CHIEF. OUR CONSTITUTION SAYS SO. DESPITE WHAT BILL SAYS.
Agree We shall see People short sighted and vote walletd 90% of time Depends on economy in Nov and agaon in 28 Hopeful but sanguine Democracy is messy like goulash
So much hogwash. Trump isn't a dictator and the U.S. has a Constitution whether Congress or the Supreme Court think so. Bill is spot-on and, unfortunately, those in power do not share or care what the vast majority of Americans want or even care about.
Your President is a loose cannon. It can't all be blamed on age, still, a 28th amendment to make a presidential candidate no older than 70 years on taking office, might be worth some thought.
Tom, we’re trying to figure that out. Is it the guy who gave all those inspiring talks about peace and prosperity throughout 2024? Or is it the blood thirsty, sadistic monster that wants to exterminate anyone and everyone who doesn’t adore him and wish to ply him with over the top gifts? Or is it Netanyahu and HIS fanatic friends?
Is this statement a metaphor that I don’t grasp or are you desperately trying to change the subject?
Bill has been taking doom for so many years and I believe he is now finally right. But we should we discussing and working strategies to avoid being caught financially in the coming crisis - I’m so disappointed by the divisive tones I hear on this comment group.
There is some great skills and experience amongst us - let’s keep it productive.
My plan is two terms, limited in absolute sense, of SIX years each. Congress to THREE YEARS and perhaps limited to 5 terms. Senate leave at 4 years and 1/3 each time so not lifetime jobs unless the PEOPLE OF THAT STATE SAY SO. Some performed amazingly at old age others not. Sen. Grassley is amazing in his 90s. LOVE HIM. SUPERB. AND A FARMER TO BOOT!
Good plan but as you well know a constitutional amendment is necessary to enforce some kind of term limits, and that will never happen. Would you vote against a term only limited by the useful idiots in your constituency? I think not, not when you can become a multi millionaire e.g. Nancy, AOC, the Minnesota wonder from Somalia?
Well I sorta agree. But putting it to Congress and then the States to confirm and amend is an exercise that brings it to light and maybe catch a good wind and get it done. and also dont forget Frick and Frack or Dumb and Dumber or name your own BROTHERS, NOW BILLIONAIRES with the Scam TRUMP CRYPTOS and MANY GOT BURNED BADLY (not me, I dont believe in Cryptos...totally FAKE MONEY), Don Jr. and Eric. THEY ARE SCOOPING UP MONEY FASTER THAN A HOOVER AS LARGE AS TEXAS. SCANDALOUS. Legal? Maybe. A gray area. CRYPTOS are a scandal. HORRIFIC. COTTON CANDY ON TOP OF AN ALGO. THE END.
Patrick just remembered that the average American reads at the 6 grade level by design. Given that very disturbing statistic the chances of any significant change to the nature of our congress through the ballot box are slim and none, sadly.
Wondering if it would be possible to constrain shipments of energy originating in the U.S. by also imposing an export fee here? If so, would this then birth a new and separate domestic energy market. One added alongside the WTI or Brent Crude indices? One that would result US energy consumers having a lower energy cost than others?
Hello, Bill. One of your antagonists—Ed Burns—just provided a reasoned and fact-driven response instead of screaming TDS! TDS!! TDS!!!—with no facts, no reasoned rebuttal, no sense.
That should be welcomed. Can you address it tomorrow?
It is an interesting thought experiment isn’t it? A tariff on our own producers, using public lands for extraction instead of tariffs on all foreigners imports. I wouldn’t think that this move would be unconstitutional as has been ruled for foreign nations tariffing as a congressional responsibility. BTW; I don’t consider myself as Bill’s antagonist - only as someone who pays close attention and will question closely, as well.
Thanks. I think so too. Would be quite interested in Bill Bonner’s response to this hypothetical scenario as the economics involved would appear to be well within his wheelhouse.
Bill, your memo today, from my viewpoint, make sense. I think the key objective at the beginning of this exercise was to ELIMINATE Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon.
For me, this supersedes the oil discussion. A radical Muslim country with a nuclear bomb is a threat to the whole world.
I have been a follower of BB since the 1980's and generally agree and approve of his economic views. To summarise what I believe is his basic premise is that it is impossible to spend more money than you receive indefinitely. One can do it for fifty years , perhaps even one hundred years or more dependant on the entities' initial reserves but eventually the reckoning day will arrive and it will not be pretty.
I at a loss to see how the great American public fail to see that their great country isb hell bent on the way to disaster.
It concerns me to read the really negative and nasty comments regarding his articles which are really only stating the obvious road to disaster which your wonderful country is embarked upon.
The horrible references to TDS are especially irrelevant for someone with six healthy young offspring.
Readers need to take the warnings to heart and initiate precautions to protect you from the coming disater ahead. Buy gold!
Rope-a-Dope was the essence of expediency, trading the long-term viability for short-term relevance. After a prolonged and dreadful physical decline, Muhammad Ali died with a marshmallow for a brain. Any takers? Best always. PM
Thank God for Dan Denning’s research note! Bill why don’t you just fade away and let the men discuss financials instead of you spewing political claptrap! Learned that word from you! Lol
What if the overall plan was to close Hormuz? I think it benefits the U.S. to have it closed! And hamstrings all countries without energy security. Whether Trump was that stupid he didn’t see the consequence and was manipulated into it? It has been war gamed for many years always with this result. The whole world is crashing into a recession minimum maybe major depression?
Sadly I agree! Everywhere I look I see corruption not being addressed especially in the USA. And great countries like Australia being smashed into the ground on purpose by a dictatorial communist government!
Many of us here foresaw this happening 40 years ago. Another great world power progressing through the free-fall portion of the pride cycle. Many of us thought it is a 10-20 year crash. I think Bill was one. All wrong, as he has documented recently!
It's a process that takes many decades, or even centuries of sequential degradation.
HOWEVER, heaven and good people help each other to live in joyful productively through the bad times. Avoid debt like the plague; save and invest some. Grow, eat, and store some healthy food. Put away some extra toilet paper. Enjoy healthy recreation, conversation, and music - face to face with good folks in the same room. I grew up with that on a small ranch 40 miles up a sparsely populated valley without pavement telephones, television, or running water. It was delightful.
In the end ALL the rules will be fair, and there will be pleasant surprises.
well the 1st might happen & he has said that he might go to hell, though being "an old man with a poor memory" he could deny it...but neither place accepts negotiation as a way out
Dear Prof. Pape: Iranian mullahs have controlled 20% of the world's oil for 47 years. Where were you all that time? For you, it’s as if history didn't start until Trump became President.
A feckless world never invested in bypassing that bedamned strait. So, the threat was always there and it shielded Iran's goal of becoming a nuclear power.
The incompetence of the four dimensional chess playing, reality game show host pedophile and his sychophant enablers over the last 12 months has truly been breath taking to behold. And the best part is, I don't have to use his name, everyone knows of whom I refer.
That is very cute - in addition to being spot on. Biden was so bad it cannot be described. We know he wasn't "the President". That was reserved for the control group to handle and simply let Biden believe he had anything to do with running the country.
So before we leave, if the mullahs are still in charge we have no choice but to destroy their oil industry. You assume that they will have control of 20% of the world market. I predict closer to zero. If not us, the Israelis will do it. They have their own survival to worry about.
Let's hope Israel does not survive. It is ugly and for the world to be peacefully it must be gone.
You are one sick MF.
For the world to be "peacefully", folks wishing others not to survive must be gone.
The promise is that after killing all the Saturday people they will then kill all the Sunday people. Atheists are even hated more so won't be safe either.
17 times every day a moslem praying 5 times a day curses/ condemns all Jews and Christians. Like saying a hail mary, a repeated set prayer against all Jews and Christians.
As a Christian it is hard for me to read your words. Having said that I most certainly agree with you. That current regime Is of the same ilk of the crew that killed Jesus. My brother we are in some very hard times.
Suppose the theories of the “experts” are correct. How long before major investments in Oman to build terminals that remove the Strait of Hormuz from the equation? I would bet it is before Iran becomes a superpower.
I sure hope so!
Bill says there are no clearly defined goals for this war. Bullshit!! The administration has clearly and repeatedly defined four goals:
- destroy Iran's air force (DONE)
- destroy Iran's Navy (MOSTLY DONE)
- destroy Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure (MOSTLY DONE)
- ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon (NOT DONE YET).
The Hormuz thing is a tactical rather than strategic objective. As is regime change - Trump has said regime change would be nice, but if the current regime agrees to become a civilized nation that no longer tries to export ideology and violence, that's fine too.
Finally, the laws of economics apply here still. A usurious transit fee will result in pipelines from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia across the arabian peninsula to the Red Sea. Yes, will take years (some are already there though), but if Hormuz becomes too expensive or risky, alternatives will appear.
Trump is so evil. And the world is looking forward to his downfall and, unfortunately, for America's. He is delusional and the U.S. government is worthless. For the vast majority of American's it is horrific. But us humans just can't help ourselves. Dust to Dust - Ashes to Ashes.
Strange attitude for a Landing Signal Officer. Curious about your definitions of "vast majority" and "horrific", though, as from where I sit I just don't see that. Sure, America has problems. But who doesn't??
Blah blah blah blah blah - chuckle Schumer’s twin - except Schumer said the opposite when bidum was in office - you sir are an idiot. Period. End of story
surely it is Trump who is exporting ideology and violence
Unfortunately, pipelines are vulnerable to cheap drones. As are refineries and other infrastructure.
As for the top of your missive, those are all tasks, not outcomes. As Prof Pope said (you can find an interesting interview on the Triggernomics podcast), the USA is tactically accurate but strategically compromised.
He also makes many rational arguments that air power has never won a war on its own, that killing the Iranian leadership will lead to regime change - tiba more fanatical regime, and boots on tge ground are the next step.
Agree, but buried pipelines are less vulnerable and more easily repaired than, say, port facilities once hostilities are over.
I think you could make a strong case that air power rather decisively won the Pacific war against Japan. Of course we needed boots on the ground for the island hopping campaign, but we never invaded the actual Japanese home islands yet they surrendered unconditionally once they accepted they couldn't stop US air power from devastating their country.
Irwin Rommel is famously quoted as saying "The war is lost" when seeing the first P-51's over Berlin. Finally, the Bay of Pigs invasion failed in part because Kennedy refused to supply air cover for the invasion. So it's (IMO) a bit of a specious argument. You can't win a war solely with air power. But you can't hope to fight one without it either.
Always happy to have a sensible debate. I have no love for the Iranian regime and generally side with Israel (wuth caveats), but question the desired outcomes and their feasibility.
You make a fair point about not winning a war without air power but I think your examples of Japan and Germany in WW2 are debatable. Winning the war militarily was maybe inevitable, but the peace was only achieved with millions of boots on the ground.
It also required justice to be meted out rather than revenge. The atrocities of the leaders were documented and presented in court with appropriate punishments handed out. Assassinating foreign leaders with drones and no trial is highly unlikely to lead to peace.
I attended a private briefing by an ex senior military leader last week who made the point that its easy to feel like you're winning at the start of an air war when you operate in a target rich environment but as time goes by you run out of things to bomb (unless you start on civilian infrastructure). Or to misquote Churchill "all you achieve is making the rubble bounce".
It is also likely that regime change will mean a more entrenched, hostile and paranoid IRGC leadership, strong uo future problems. Frankly, the time to bomb was during the uprising.
So what is a viable war aim? We could probably all live with a definition of "won" being an extreme case of mowing the grass, but not if in doing so you cut the power cable to your house.
Which brongs us to the Strait of Hormuz issue. Its a nightmare strategically as it has the potential to escalate to other nations restricting access to, or charging for, transit through narrow straits (canals and pilotage in the Bosphorous are not the same) and could bite us in the backside in the S China Sea.
Maybe the only solution to that is to tell Iran (and by extension China and India) that 2 can play that game and there will be a complete blockade where any tankers from Iran, including those that deviat from normal shipping lanes into Iranian waters, will be intercepted and sanctioned.
Anyway, ramble over, other opinions are available!
I too enjoy a spirited civil debate. Stepping back to the big picture, I think a serious question is, what does the world do with/about bad actors?
Chamberlain famously did nothing while Germany occupied the Sudetenland and invaded Czechoslovakia, which many feel emboldened Hitler. But, what else could Chamberlain have done?? Japan had already invaded Korea and Manchuria before Pearl Harbor. What did the US do? Ship scrap iron to Japan so they could make planes and ships. But, aside from *not* selling them iron, what could we have done? In both cases, I don't think there was any way to change the perception among the Axis decision makers that the Allies were weak.
Since WWII, the US has been the "World's Policeman", or as Madelaine Albright put it, the "Indispensable Country". Nobody likes it when the US throws its weight around, but whenever there's a global bully, everyone looks to the US to do something about it. In the current case of Iran, we have a fanatical (by our standards) regime with a stated goal of dominating the Middle East in general and destroying the State of Israel in particular. To accomplish that, they fund insurgent militias in several countries around Israel, and seek to extend their influence through longer range ballistic missiles, culminating in intercontinental range and tipped with nuclear weapons. IMO that cannot be ignored. When a madman says he wants to kill you, it is best to believe him.
So do we wait around and try to talk (negotiate) them out of it?? I believe we'd have the same success as if we had tried that with Hitler and Tojo. Nada. However, a declared war with the aim of taking control of the country would be horribly expensive, both in dollars and blood. Maybe, however, if every 10 years or they get a major haircut as long as they refuse to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, they'll eventually give up. If not, at least we keep the nuclear threat at bay.
In the current conflict, if we could just get hold of the 45kg of 60% U235 that they (claim to) have already made, I'd be prepared to declare victory and go home.
I agree that "something must be done" its the when and how I need some convincing on.
If the goal is "mow the grass, contain the U2O3", then what other options were there?
Let's start with the fact that Iran, like all dictatorships, greatest strength in negotiations is take it slow until the democracy gets bored or distracted by elections. Procrastinate, make concessions, break concessions and so on ad nauseum.
So rude out negotiated settlement.
2025 12 day war? Disrupt the physical means of production with B52s, fine. Assassination of scientists, morally dubious. Does that make Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, BAe Systems staff fair game? Could special forces have been committed while there was still an element of surprise for more certain outcomes, who knows...
2026, this time they know we're coming (yes I'm from the UK but lets just accept im on the side of "The West"). The U2O3 is dispersed across a huuuuge country. We don't know how much there is or where it is. And if its already 60% enriched its weeks to get it to 90% compared to years to get to 60%.
To digress slightly, whats to stop them buying a bomb or enriched material? The main reason is that they're a proxy war. China and Russia are just as nervous of nuclear armed Muslims as the West. China does not have a good record on treating Muslims well... So everyone's balancing a balloon on a pin hoping to apply just the right amount of pressure to keep it there without popping it. Trump came along and said "hold my beer" and popped that balloon, for fun.
So now, for better or worse, Iran has taken a military kicking, but is now waiting for Trump to lose interest and eyeing a big prize, $1bn a week in "tolls" from the Straits. What that leaves is regional instability in probably the worst spot in the world for EVERYONE except the Iranians. The price of energy is set at the margin (as are prices of refined products like fertiliser) so even if the USA is unlikely to suffer serious shortages (although refinery capacity is an issue), the public suffer higher prices and companies suffer if trading partners are pushed into recession or worse.
So my suggestion to call Irans bluff and force Irans nominal allies to reopen Hormuz is dangerous but potentially successful. Then build pipelines like crazy in the interim.
So how could it have been done differently? (And I'm aware this is easy to say from the sofa). Fund the resistance, support the rebellion with targeted strikes against the IRGC but let the people deal with the figure heads? Then you either have a compliant regime and you take the U203 nicely or you have chaos in which to take it by force.
What I don't like is assassination of foreign leaders, both from a moral and practical perspective. We will reap what we sow.
What I dont like is creating more chaos for the global economy that enriches your rivals at the expense of your allies.
What I dont like is setting precedents that cant be undone (tolls on shipping lanes WILL lead to more conflict).
What I dont like is people on the left calling me a fascist for supporting some of Trumps goals and now look like a chump, while on the other side Im accused by those on the right of TDS.
What I want is a stable investment environment so I can pretend im making money through judgement rather than luck 🤣
Anyway, that helped order some thoughts so thank you!
So the thing is this....now we regard Bill Bonner as credible and biased as MSNBC and CNN. Sigh. His right to opinions but not facts or his version of History distorted or half truths. He is who he is. I always say an independent is a Democrat with a white sheet over his head and an Isolationist is just a pacifist with another white sheet over his head. And both are folly and suicide by policy. Disaster for nation and the world.
Bill has TDS and feigns objectivity. FALSE. Bill is ALWAYS negative like EEYORE in Winnie The Pooh. Must be bore to be around and everyone just avoids him at parties.
NEVER POSITIVE. Always academic elitist and hypocritical. Feigned populist. He owns farms and plays farmers, like his ROOTS but along the way the Georgetown Crowd got to him and he went LEFT and ANTI WAR and ANTI GOVERNMENT and now is a hopeless crank. Thank GOD he isnt a domestic nihilist and anarchist, YET. And so we just roll our eyes, ignore mostly but also PUSH BACK so he doesnt get the notion his ideas are accepted or acceptable or liked. And people have the RIGHT to push back.
I dont like Hegseth either for MANY reasons. Trump is TRUMP and his rhetoric is humorous and sometimes odious and offensive but at the end of the day HE WAS ELECTED and HE HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY and ENORMOUS PRESSURE and so long as HE is doing his best and what is best for NATION with ADVICE from counselors (some good, some bad and some indifferent or weak) we have to give TRUMP his day and let him BE TRUMP AND BE PRESIDENT and DECIDER IN CHIEF. OUR CONSTITUTION SAYS SO. DESPITE WHAT BILL SAYS.
Just try to think of Harris, or a second Biden term....I think I will throw up!!
My guess is in 210 days your fellow voters are going to give you a
reason to grab your "barf bag".
Agree We shall see People short sighted and vote walletd 90% of time Depends on economy in Nov and agaon in 28 Hopeful but sanguine Democracy is messy like goulash
So much hogwash. Trump isn't a dictator and the U.S. has a Constitution whether Congress or the Supreme Court think so. Bill is spot-on and, unfortunately, those in power do not share or care what the vast majority of Americans want or even care about.
There you go suckling up to Bills ass, however, i do agree with the last part of your post
Trump id doing his best for himself ...as always
Your President is a loose cannon. It can't all be blamed on age, still, a 28th amendment to make a presidential candidate no older than 70 years on taking office, might be worth some thought.
Carl, if you don't mind, who is your president?
Tom, we’re trying to figure that out. Is it the guy who gave all those inspiring talks about peace and prosperity throughout 2024? Or is it the blood thirsty, sadistic monster that wants to exterminate anyone and everyone who doesn’t adore him and wish to ply him with over the top gifts? Or is it Netanyahu and HIS fanatic friends?
My previous refrigerator was very old and didn't work much at all.
It barley kept running and I frequently had to use an auto-cooler.
... I replaced it with a used refrigerator I had once before.
It runs well, keeps things nice and cold, but makes a lot of odd rumbling noises.
I am looking forward to replacing it, and I will in a few years.
For now, it will do what I need it to do, keep things from going to rot...
Is this statement a metaphor that I don’t grasp or are you desperately trying to change the subject?
Bill has been taking doom for so many years and I believe he is now finally right. But we should we discussing and working strategies to avoid being caught financially in the coming crisis - I’m so disappointed by the divisive tones I hear on this comment group.
There is some great skills and experience amongst us - let’s keep it productive.
... read it again, I think it's pretty self-explanatory.
"Hint": I painted the noisy refrigerator orange.
BPR has been doom and gloom, and that's what I pay him for.
I agree with the overall premise of debt problems, but doubt anything is imminent.
The U.S. is woefully in debt, however, so is the globe.
I am of the persuasion we are entering a very bullish period in the market.
Hope I am right... was last year.
duh. not everyone is an American
PM, Albanese.
Albo…possibly a good man, I don’t know him.
But he is NOT much of a leader, except for the union movement. Also for the banksters!
Arguably the biggest idiot and left winger ever to grace the political stage in Australia.
A good man for sure.
My plan is two terms, limited in absolute sense, of SIX years each. Congress to THREE YEARS and perhaps limited to 5 terms. Senate leave at 4 years and 1/3 each time so not lifetime jobs unless the PEOPLE OF THAT STATE SAY SO. Some performed amazingly at old age others not. Sen. Grassley is amazing in his 90s. LOVE HIM. SUPERB. AND A FARMER TO BOOT!
Good plan but as you well know a constitutional amendment is necessary to enforce some kind of term limits, and that will never happen. Would you vote against a term only limited by the useful idiots in your constituency? I think not, not when you can become a multi millionaire e.g. Nancy, AOC, the Minnesota wonder from Somalia?
Well I sorta agree. But putting it to Congress and then the States to confirm and amend is an exercise that brings it to light and maybe catch a good wind and get it done. and also dont forget Frick and Frack or Dumb and Dumber or name your own BROTHERS, NOW BILLIONAIRES with the Scam TRUMP CRYPTOS and MANY GOT BURNED BADLY (not me, I dont believe in Cryptos...totally FAKE MONEY), Don Jr. and Eric. THEY ARE SCOOPING UP MONEY FASTER THAN A HOOVER AS LARGE AS TEXAS. SCANDALOUS. Legal? Maybe. A gray area. CRYPTOS are a scandal. HORRIFIC. COTTON CANDY ON TOP OF AN ALGO. THE END.
Patrick just remembered that the average American reads at the 6 grade level by design. Given that very disturbing statistic the chances of any significant change to the nature of our congress through the ballot box are slim and none, sadly.
Grassley, I agree. Farmer "yeah", "lawyer not so much".
But then again, I'm a farmer!
Wondering if it would be possible to constrain shipments of energy originating in the U.S. by also imposing an export fee here? If so, would this then birth a new and separate domestic energy market. One added alongside the WTI or Brent Crude indices? One that would result US energy consumers having a lower energy cost than others?
Hello, Bill. One of your antagonists—Ed Burns—just provided a reasoned and fact-driven response instead of screaming TDS! TDS!! TDS!!!—with no facts, no reasoned rebuttal, no sense.
That should be welcomed. Can you address it tomorrow?
It is an interesting thought experiment isn’t it? A tariff on our own producers, using public lands for extraction instead of tariffs on all foreigners imports. I wouldn’t think that this move would be unconstitutional as has been ruled for foreign nations tariffing as a congressional responsibility. BTW; I don’t consider myself as Bill’s antagonist - only as someone who pays close attention and will question closely, as well.
Asking good questions is a good thing.
Thanks. I think so too. Would be quite interested in Bill Bonner’s response to this hypothetical scenario as the economics involved would appear to be well within his wheelhouse.
A wheelhouse this early-on subscriber wishes he'd stay in a lot more often. I too hope he addresses your great question.
Bill, your memo today, from my viewpoint, make sense. I think the key objective at the beginning of this exercise was to ELIMINATE Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon.
For me, this supersedes the oil discussion. A radical Muslim country with a nuclear bomb is a threat to the whole world.
Jim Marshall
You don't think that a country that appears to be run by a madman isn't a threat to the whole world, Jim
I have been a follower of BB since the 1980's and generally agree and approve of his economic views. To summarise what I believe is his basic premise is that it is impossible to spend more money than you receive indefinitely. One can do it for fifty years , perhaps even one hundred years or more dependant on the entities' initial reserves but eventually the reckoning day will arrive and it will not be pretty.
I at a loss to see how the great American public fail to see that their great country isb hell bent on the way to disaster.
It concerns me to read the really negative and nasty comments regarding his articles which are really only stating the obvious road to disaster which your wonderful country is embarked upon.
The horrible references to TDS are especially irrelevant for someone with six healthy young offspring.
Readers need to take the warnings to heart and initiate precautions to protect you from the coming disater ahead. Buy gold!
Problem with the Rope a Dope it can turn you into a permanent dope.
Rope-a-Dope was the essence of expediency, trading the long-term viability for short-term relevance. After a prolonged and dreadful physical decline, Muhammad Ali died with a marshmallow for a brain. Any takers? Best always. PM
Thank God for Dan Denning’s research note! Bill why don’t you just fade away and let the men discuss financials instead of you spewing political claptrap! Learned that word from you! Lol
What if the overall plan was to close Hormuz? I think it benefits the U.S. to have it closed! And hamstrings all countries without energy security. Whether Trump was that stupid he didn’t see the consequence and was manipulated into it? It has been war gamed for many years always with this result. The whole world is crashing into a recession minimum maybe major depression?
he's really that stupid, as so many real estate folk are
We are in the next stage of the "reset",
Those of us who survive the population reduction will be kept in a digital cage.
And the "elite" will have the whole world as the own !
I did not think I would live long enough to see this occur.
Enjoy what's left of your freedom as long as you can.
Sadly I agree! Everywhere I look I see corruption not being addressed especially in the USA. And great countries like Australia being smashed into the ground on purpose by a dictatorial communist government!
Many of us here foresaw this happening 40 years ago. Another great world power progressing through the free-fall portion of the pride cycle. Many of us thought it is a 10-20 year crash. I think Bill was one. All wrong, as he has documented recently!
It's a process that takes many decades, or even centuries of sequential degradation.
HOWEVER, heaven and good people help each other to live in joyful productively through the bad times. Avoid debt like the plague; save and invest some. Grow, eat, and store some healthy food. Put away some extra toilet paper. Enjoy healthy recreation, conversation, and music - face to face with good folks in the same room. I grew up with that on a small ranch 40 miles up a sparsely populated valley without pavement telephones, television, or running water. It was delightful.
In the end ALL the rules will be fair, and there will be pleasant surprises.
Trump will soon be in the Hague Court for war crimes before descending into Hell for Eternity
Vern, that is what you would like to see happen to assuage your anger and distaste for Trump. Both we both know that it will never happen.
well the 1st might happen & he has said that he might go to hell, though being "an old man with a poor memory" he could deny it...but neither place accepts negotiation as a way out
Dear Prof. Pape: Iranian mullahs have controlled 20% of the world's oil for 47 years. Where were you all that time? For you, it’s as if history didn't start until Trump became President.
A feckless world never invested in bypassing that bedamned strait. So, the threat was always there and it shielded Iran's goal of becoming a nuclear power.
The incompetence of the four dimensional chess playing, reality game show host pedophile and his sychophant enablers over the last 12 months has truly been breath taking to behold. And the best part is, I don't have to use his name, everyone knows of whom I refer.
My first guess was Biden.
That is very cute - in addition to being spot on. Biden was so bad it cannot be described. We know he wasn't "the President". That was reserved for the control group to handle and simply let Biden believe he had anything to do with running the country.
I prefer calling him the Orange Oaf