Joel Bowman and Dominic Frisby on Liberty vs. Authority

“I don't actually see the world through the prism of left and right, I see it more as authoritarian versus libertarian.” ~ Dominic Frisby

TRANSCRIPT

Joel Bowman:
Welcome to the Bonner Private Research podcast. I'm your host, Joel Bowman. Each week we bring you exclusive conversations with members of Bill Bonner's Private Research team, as well as some special guests we'll meet along the way. We're trying to connect the dots from high finance to lowly politics, private investments to public follies, from Wall Street to main street, at home, and on the road. We're into sound money, personal freedom, classical books, and great wines. Not always in that order. So join me and the rest of the Bonner Private Research team, as we pack our bags and follow the money.

We're welcoming today to the Fatal Conceits podcast, Mr. Dominic Frisby, who is a British author, comedian, and investor. He is also, as he and I have just been discussing, a fellow Substacker. So, make sure that you check out his Flying Frisby articles over on Substack. Right out the gate Dominic, for those of our readers/listeners who are perhaps not yet familiar with your work, but soon will be, you occupy a double life as both an investor and comedian, which it's not unusual certainly, uncommon for the average listener. I've always thought of markets as a bit of a tragic comic projection of the human condition with all our hubris and folly and fear, greed, envy, and whatnot, projected up onto the markets. I'm wondering if you feel that those twin hats that you wear are maybe not so delineated as maybe most people might think.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, it's a bizarre situation that I find myself in, it's completely accidental. It's not something I planned. And, I think, I am the world's only finance writer stroke comedian. I was once doing a show up in Edinburg at the Edinburg Festival. And, some chap came up to me and said, "I am your German rival. I am a German financial writer comedian." So there might be a German guy who does it. But, I don't know who he is, but he did come up and say, "Hello." But, I think I might be the only one who does it in the English language, put it that way.

And yeah, it is funny because while a lot of comedians tend to veer slightly to the left in their world view, they would've been anti-Trump and anti-Brexit and all that stuff. They might say that, but if you look at what they actually do, being a standup comedian is probably the single most libertarian existence that there is, because you don't get any government support. You're only as good as your act. You troll your act around the country and hopefully eventually around the world and get better. And as you get better, you get better paid gigs. And you are acting entirely out of your own self interest. But, it is in your interest at the same time to get on with everyone else. But, the more you work at your act, the better your jokes get the more people laugh. And the more pleasure they derive from watching you, and as a result of the pleasure they derive from watching you, the better gigs you get and the more money you earn.

And, certainly at the grassroots level, there's no government intervention in live comedy. There's no subsidy, there's nothing. It's the only art form that survives without government subsidy, all things like opera and ballet require loads of subsidy. So yeah, it's a libertarian, Adam Smith existence. And then, you actually talk to comics and they go, "You're a financial writer." And, loads of them are speculating in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. And if you go, "Oh, I've got the really sexy junior mining company I'm looking at here." They all want to know what it is.

Joel Bowman:
Right.

Dominic Frisby:
And I think it's because they've all got a speculative mindset. And so, there's definitely... And, the famous thing with traders, Jesse Livermore and famous traders is that, they're often prone to depression, bouts of elation and bouts of depression. And Jesse Livermore, of course eventually killed himself. And, that's the same existence of the comic. They're famously happy one minute and sad the next. And so, I do think there is a lot of crossover between the two worlds, albeit accidental.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. It does seem that it's a extreme expression, as you mentioned, of those highs and lows, those vicissitudes of life. And, just on the point of government subsidies, I honestly can't imagine anything less funny than a government subsidized comic. That's got to be just the bottom of the barrel, surely.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, I'll show you a government subsidized comic. It's someone who's on the BBC.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah.

Dominic Frisby:
And you just look at the state of BBC comedy and it's dire, and it used to be brilliant.

Joel Bowman:
So, what's going on there? Because, we all grew up with comedians, and yeah, many of them had left wing tendencies, but they were funny. And, I'm just wondering what... It's like what happened to the anti-war left, what happened to the funny left? Now it seems that comedians on the left are telling jokes more for applause than they are for laughter.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, yeah. And, I tell you what that is, is I think to be a good comic, you've got to be counterculture. You've got to be irreverent, you've got to be against the status quo, you've got to mock the status quo. Zero Mostel used to say, "Comedy's about exposing pomposity." And by the way, I don't actually see the world through the prism of left and right, I see it more authoritarian versus libertarian. But, I think when we use the term left, we all know what we're talking about. And that slightly authoritarian, "We know better than you" left, that technocratic mindset that dominates state planning, and government, and regulation, and the federal reserve bank, and the Bank of England, and the civil service, and it just dominates the entire establishment. It dominates the cultural establishment as well.

And so, by adopting that world view of, "Trump stupid. Trump orange hair. Ho, ho, ho." You are not doing anything counter-cultural. They think they are, because Trump is the president and they're attacking the most powerful man in the country. And there is an argument for that, but really, Trump himself was counter-cultural in that he was so anti-establishment or anti the conventional way of doing things. And so, yeah. So, the irreverent really funny anti-establishment voices are coming more from the right, they're coming from the libertarian angle, than they are from the establishment state planning world.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. And just to speak to that establishment mindset, it does seem that on both sides of the pond, two countries separated by a common language as Mr. Wild observed, that there is this surging sensorial impulse that is cracking down on culture across the board. And it seems like there's a very one size fits all mentality to what you're allowed to think. And it doesn't matter what the subject is, whether it's a pandemic, or a mandate, or a war, there's just this very monotone mentality that we're allowed to express. And that seems to be really the antithesis of comedy. Would you agree?

Dominic Frisby:
Yeah. A 100%. The standard reaction to any worldview that you don't like is to try and get it canceled.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah, yeah. Right. It's a very childish reaction.

Dominic Frisby:
It is. It's like, "Why is the BBC giving so and so a platform?

Joel Bowman:
Right.

Dominic Frisby:
And it's got so stupid, it's like anyone who's to the left of Bernie Sanders, he's a far right racist. And you're like, "It's insane." And it's some mental illness, it's obviously been propagated by the Russians, who are trying to spread dissent and disorder. I'm joking when I say that, but I do think at one stage they were trying to divide the right. And, whether by accident, or whether it's just by social media, or it was going to happen anyway. But yeah, the world is so divided, but the standard libertarian thing is live and let live. But, that doesn't apply to the left, and there's no live and let live there it's "Either agree with me or have your livelihood cut off."

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. You only have to go back a generation or so, and that seems to me just utterly anathema to that late-60s, happy-go-lucky Berkeley Free Speech Movement, the hippies getting their groove on whatever they happen to be into. I mean, they seem to be demanding their own civil liberties, as far as obviously freedom of speech, freedom of what they wanted to put in their body. Goodness knows that has come full circle now. And, they were very much anti-war, anti-establishment, anti-big corporation, anti-big government, and now down the line, it's the total opposite.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, I just think there are loads of people who are libertarian and they do not realize it. And so yeah, that whole movement of peace, anti-war, live and let live, flowers, get back to nature, local rule, all that stuff that they stood for. And it was a brilliantly creative time artistically, and especially musically, it's just ended with more government. And, they all find themselves now supporting the NHS, state welfare, state mandates on climate change, all this big state stuff. And you're like, "How did that happen?" And, I think there's this weird thing that they cannot understand that with less state and more individual responsibility, the result would be better welfare, better healthcare, better all these things, but they can't that emotional leap to the point of trusting human beings to do the right thing. They're unable to do that. And so, they think, "All right, well, government must provide it." So, it's bizarre. So, all that movement has just ended effectively in light socialism, or rather heavy socialism.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. It is bizarre, isn't it? That they've quashed competition and that they're so allergic to, I think, it was Hike who called it spontaneous order, which is where you take a leap of faith and you rely on the market to find nuanced and work around solutions to of things like central banks destroying our money, and universal healthcare providers diminishing our level of care, and on and on down the line, look at education, et cetera, et cetera. But, I wanted to ask you, just segueing from comedy to the go government's version of it. I did see a couple of your posts, which I found pretty amusing. And, we've seen just in the past couple of weeks, both the permanently startled Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden saying that government spending... I'll have to paraphrase them both here. But it's something like, government spending is absolutely not to blame for inflation. Presumably, they're laying that at the feet of the evil capitalists. Does that line make you laugh? Does it make you cry or wince? All of the above? It's its own peculiar brand of comedy, I think.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, I mean, it makes me do all of the above. And, this is why I absolutely adore Bitcoin. I just think it's the most fantastic movement. I think I discovered gold in 2005, 2006. And, it was one of those clarity moments that one has in one's life, when soon as I discovered gold, you uncover all the Austrian economic worldview, the libertarian, the small state, all the arguments for having an independent system of money. And it keeps governments not being able to print money, keeps them in check. And, it's using independent money as a way by which the citizen can hold his government to account, and all that stuff. And just suddenly so much about the world came clear to me. Fundamentally, why houses are so ludicrously expensive in London.

And, I spent many years trying to educate people. I wrote a film called Four Horseman, which was an incredibly popular film. It had something like 9 million views on YouTube, something like that. And, I wrote it with a guy called Ross Ashcroft, but all the stuff in there about gold and fiat money and all that was all me. And I wrote a book called Life After the State, and I wrote my weekly column, and time and time again, I just saw it as my mission to educate the people about the evils of fiat money. And every time you wrote the word fiat, you'd go, fiat money (money which is money by decree, or money which governments can print) or whatever. You'd have to define what fiat money meant.

And then, along comes Bitcoin and as well as being the most fantastically glorious speculative vehicle, if you are long, particularly, if you were long early on. It's also been the most brilliant educative tool. And, it's just educated anyone... I mean, I'm 52, and I suppose I first discovered Bitcoin, it would've been maybe 2012. So, when I was in my early-40s. And, I'd go to a Bitcoin conference, and in my early-40s, I'd be the oldest person there. And then, I'd go to a gold conference and I'd be the youngest person there.

Joel Bowman:
The changing of the guard.

Dominic Frisby:
Yeah. And so, I was straddling, and I'm in my early-50s now. So, anyone born in 1969, 1970, around about that time is on the cusp of the two worlds. And, I'm younger than a boomer, obviously. And so, the old guys all knew about gold and all that, but the young, they're all speculating in Bitcoin, and then they're creating the memes, and then they're all laughing at the memes, and so on and so forth. And, it's just been the most wonderful educative tool about the natures of fiat money, inflation, all these things. And it's just brought these arguments into the mainstream while earning a lot of people, a lot of money. And so, everyone celebrates the glory of Bitcoin, "Bitcoin fixes this." But one of the many things it fixes is financial literacy.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah, absolutely. I have a somewhat similar experience to you with both gold and Bitcoin. I'm down here in Argentina, as I mentioned to you before the show, but I recall going to an Austrian economics conference with some friends, Jeffrey Tucker, and a few others who were speaking there back in... Oh, it would've been 2012 or something. And-

Dominic Frisby:
Was that the one in Acapulco, or was that the one in Germany?

Joel Bowman:
... No, this was in South Paulo in Brazil.

Dominic Frisby:
Oh, okay.

Joel Bowman:
Some years ago. But yeah, the same experience, where I had been used to going to these gold shows around the U.S., where my publisher at the time was holding conferences. And you would get people who were very, very well versed in Aristotle's five characteristics of sound money, and they knew all the ins and outs of gold, and they knew enough Latin to understand what by decree came from, and what fiat meant, and all the rest of it. But they were having a bit of a mental blockage with regards to Bitcoin.

Joel Bowman:
And then, I went to this conference in South Paulo. And, it was full of young kids. I was around maybe young-30s at the time, but it was full of kids in their early-30s and even in their 20s, who were just talking up this new currency, and really actually just asking the questions that I don't think people had really asked about the nature of money for... Maybe going back to Keynes's "Barbarous Relic" comment, but certainly even some time before then, where we just took for granted that it was up to the state to manage our money for us, and that the private market had no business entering that realm.

Joel Bowman:
And then all of a sudden, Bitcoin exploded in 2008. And yeah, we were invited to really question the foundational role of the state in producing money, and maybe even address the question that had been addressed around maybe when the Gutenberg Printing Press came along originally, which is, can we separate the church from the state? Now, all of a sudden we were confronted with the proposition of potentially separating the money from the state. Is that something similar to the way that you grappled with it in the early days?

Dominic Frisby:
Yeah, exactly. And, that's the mission, separate money and state. And, there are people who still think the pound and the dollar are backed by gold. They actually think it. They can only print as much as they've got gold and silver. And you're like, "Oh, please. Do me a favor..." But anyway.

Joel Bowman:
I noticed just incidentally that there's not a whole lot of Bitcoin and crypto money being used to purchase tanks and jet fighters. And, just while we're on the roll of what the state uses its tax dollars and its untethered money to fund.

Dominic Frisby:
They will.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah.

Dominic Frisby:
When we get our little Bitcoin citadels and we need to defend them, we will have to buy some tanks, and we'll use Bitcoin to do it.

Joel Bowman:
Right. Right. Well-

Dominic Frisby:
And, they'll be sound tanks. They won't get caught in 40-mile traffic jams in Ukraine or whatever it is.

Joel Bowman:
... Right. Oh, well, so moving on there. I've read a couple of your recent articles, and again, that's the Flying Frisby on Substack, for people who want to check out Dominic's work. You and some others around the space have been observing, of course, that inflation is something that had been ticking up to, at least in the U.S., 40-year highs before Mr. Putin even circles invade Ukraine day on his calendar. But it seems that in the past couple of weeks, since the conflict in Eastern-Europe has erupted, that everything that has been going wrong with Western economies is now being blamed on the conflict in Ukraine, including, not least of which, some pretty extreme price action in the commodities markets. What's been your take on, for example, nickel going limit up across in the $100,000 a ton mark, and doing us all an Al Gore shaped hockey stick just last week, I think, and some other really crazy price action in the commodities markets.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, that nickel chart was extraordinary. It's like nothing I've ever seen. I think it went up from 25,000 to a $100,000 in two days, which for a-

Joel Bowman:
It's insane.

Dominic Frisby:
... I mean, it's not a cryptocurrency, it's a nickel, it's an essential basic metal. And for it to quadruple in a day is nuts. And I also happen to think the London Metal Exchanges decision not to honor the contracts signals the end of the London Metals Exchange. To close the markets and not force the dude in China to cough up, even if he hasn't got the money, they have to do that if they're to maintain the integrity of the LME. But anyway, that's their own business. And, yeah, I mean, commodities have basically been in a bull market since the big corona panic sell off in March, 2020, oil went to minus 30. And so, it went from minus 30 to 130. That's a $160 move. That's one heck of a trade, if you bought the lows and sold the highs.

Joel Bowman:
Yep.

Dominic Frisby:
And, this always happens with commodities is that, you get 5 or 10 years of under investment. So there's a shortage of supply. There's a few cranks on the internet like me, you, and Bill who go, "There's a shortage of supply in this metal, it should be trading much higher." We quietly inform our readers. We take positions in mining companies and in metals, and so on. And, I've been banging the drum about oil for goodness knows how long. And then, we just watch it go up.

Dominic Frisby:
And so, commodities were all in a massive bull market. And, what this war has done is given us the speculative blow off top. And, now I'm looking at this, and as we speak today, oil's gone from 130 to about 95 bucks. It's had a $35 sell off in what... Three, four days. Gold has gone from testing its old highs, 2070 around about there, that's sold off and it's gone back to its previous old highs, 1920. So that's $150 sell off. But all the metals, platinum, palladium... Palladium's lost about a third of its value. And, they're just so speculative. And, I'm not suggesting you got speculative bubbles under a gold standard, but you did, but there were nothing like they are now, because everyone's losing leverage, and leverage is a fiat money thing, all leverage is, is debt. And so, you just got these mad speculative markets where everyone's speculating, wanting to get rich quick. It's all part of that fiat money mindset. But I'm look looking at commodities now and I'm going, "Was that the top?"

I think, there's a really good chance... I put out two pieces last week and both said the excess here feels like a top. That excess marks a top. But then you look at the fundamentals and you go, "Well, Russia supplies something like 17% of global commodities, and 40% of European gas, and I think it's 10% of world oil." And, I can't remember what the number is for nickel, but it might be something like 20 or 30% of world nickel. Palladium, I think it supplies more than 50%. And, you can substitute palladium to a certain extent with platinum, but not totally. And it's nuts that palladium should be more expense of them platinum in the first place. But anyway, and with all these sanctions coming, we haven't solved the lack of investment in commodities in a few weeks, there is still this fundamental problem of lack of investment, lack of exploration, and all this.

So, all that makes me think, "Hmm, we're not going to go that low at least."

Joel Bowman:
Yeah.

Dominic Frisby:
But I think, the bubble blow off top that we've had, and now the unwinding, this is all going to take a while to digest and unwind. So I'm not rushing to take new commodities positions, but I do notice that in all of the insanity gold miners didn't have the run up that gold had. They had a bit of a run up, but gold led the miners, and ideally you want miners to lead the metal. Although, I think those days might be gone, because of all the various ways there are to own gold, ETFs, and gold money, and Bullionvault fault, and gold core, and futures, and spread bets, and there's so many different ways to own gold. You just think, "Why take on individual company risk and own a minor?"

And nevertheless, even with that disclaimer aside, I'm still quietly bullish about gold mining. Now there's so much dross in the sector of gold mining, so many bad companies, but I've got two or three companies that I like that can survive gold going back to 1250 an ounce, if it ever goes there. They were set up during a bear market with a bear market mentality, that awful bear market of 2013 to 2016. So, if you can find the right gold miners, I think you can do well. And in fact, I recommended two, one in February, one in March for my paid subscribers on Substack. And they're both higher than when they were even with this massive correction.

Joel Bowman:
Wow. Okay.

Dominic Frisby:
So, I'm like, "Oh, look at me. I know what I'm doing." I mean, of course you make tips and they don't always work out that well. But I am quietly British about gold miners, as long as they're well run ones and not run by crooks or bozos. And I'm afraid there's a lot of crooks and bozos. By bozos I mean, stupid people. And there are quite a few of them in gold mining. That's one of the things I admire about Bitcoin by the way, is there are just so many geniuses in the sector, young, enthusiastic, energetic geniuses at the height of their career building years. And just by owning Bitcoin or owning five coins, or one of those funds that you can buy that gives the 10 best DeFi coins or the 10 best metaverse coins, whatever it is. You're just getting exposure to that colossal intellect. And with gold mining, there is just not the same intellect. I'm not saying there are not clever people in gold mining, there are. But, there's not genius, after genius, after genius, in the way that there is with all that computer stuff and Bitcoin.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. And it does seem, I mean, for those of us who have been around the Bitcoin ecosystem for a little while now, and it really is only a little while, it's only 14 odd years old. But, even just during that short period of time, the amount of wealth that's been created for individuals... I've witnessed a little bit of this myself and the people that I've seen who held on for dear life, who hodl-ed early on and made some pretty sizable fortunes. I can't think of a single one of those people that I know who just tooled off to a Caribbean island and put their feet up and did nothing for the next however many years and dropped off the map. All of those people that I know have gone into other entrepreneurial pursuits, they've started up clinics, or they've branched out into computronics, or some other disruptive industry where...

This is a generation of people who are often derided for slacking off on the couch and taking their gender studies degrees and just living in mom's basement. But there is a portion of those people, I think, who are attracted to all that the Bitcoin world offers, part of what you were saying before about live and let live perhaps. And those people, they seem to be the ones that are building the parallel economies of tomorrow.

Dominic Frisby:
Well, agreed. I mean, you see it, I know loads of Bitcoiners. I started up a privacy tech company in Canada listed on the CSE, called Cypherpunk Holding. And, I was having lunch with Jon Matonis. He's been around for a long time. He's a formidable intellect, and he really doesn't need to work if he doesn't want to. And, I just showed him this privacy tech company that we were setting up and he said, "Oh, I'd really like to get involved." And so, John became a director. And that's just an example of, people don't want to stop just because they've made a lot of money, Richard Branson didn't stop.

But, I've just bought one of the gold companies I recommended, the guy who's the CEO... Or actually the president, not the CEO, has just sold another company, and he's made something like 2000 times his money, he doesn't need to work again if he doesn't want to, but people like working, and even into your retirement... My dad was a writer, he died at the age of 87, but two weeks before he died, he was still hustling and still trying sell his place. So, we don't stop, just because government says you can stop when you're 60, individuals don't necessarily do that.

Joel Bowman:
Well, yeah, it's almost a permissive off ramp, isn't it? That "Work up until this high water mark and then just kick back for a little." While I find that the people who are more self-reliant and yeah, self-starting entrepreneurials, aren't looking for that permission to stop. They're quite the contrary. They're looking for people to get off their backs so they can get going. So, let me ask you then, Dominic, because we've been through a few episodes with Bitcoin now with regards to it being... To quote one of my favorite philosophers of the 20th century, "Born in a crossfire hurricane." As Mrs. Jagger Richards would have it.

In 2008, it came onto the scene during the big bailouts. And then, obviously it kicked on higher in that catalyzing moment of the Cyprus Bail-Ins. And we've seen a few geopolitical events that have set off or sparked new rallies. I was curious this time around, with all that's going on with Russia and the Ukraine, it seemed like gold was performed in its traditional role of risk off safe Haven. Bitcoin, not so much, perhaps because of just regulatory uncertainty, or... I haven't checked the price today, but what do you make of its near-term response to that geopolitical uncertainty, and where do you see it going perhaps over the medium-term from here?

Dominic Frisby:
Well, firstly on the subject of gold. Gold did what it was supposed to, but now it's stopped doing what it's supposed to, it just sold off $150 and it's done a massive double top. It's also done an island reversal. The chartists must be looking at gold and just shaking their head and crying. But, I love gold and you can make an argument about an asset. So, I'm making this argument, I'm using the disclaimer first, I love gold, I own loads of gold. If the world went back to some day factor gold standard, I wouldn't be an unhappy man. But you can look at gold and you can make two arguments. You can go, "Well in 1980, the value of America's gold holdings could have paid off its debt." And, the Jim Sinclair argument, "The role of gold is to balance the books of the United States." And so, if the United States now were to pay off its debt with its gold, then the gold price would have to be whatever. I don't even know what the number is, $50,000 an ounce or something stupid, and probably more.

Or you can look at gold and you can go, "Well actually, it might have been money since..." Gold was the very first metal that human beings used. We used it long before we used copper and we discovered smelting in the bronze age. Gold was the first metal we used. We discovered it in river beds when we were hunter gatherers, stone-age people, and we decorated ourselves with it, and we gave it to other people, and used it as reward, and we used it in barter.

So, it was the very, very first money. It was the first metal we used and we used it as money. Obviously a less sophisticated form of money than what we have today, but its role was money. We used it to store wealth, display status, all that stuff. And, probably 20,000 years before we discovered smelting. So, it's the oldest metal we've ever used. It's probably the oldest substance on earth, when it came in at its supernovae collisions. And you can make all those arguments, it's been money for 20, 30,000 years, longer. Why would it stop being money now? Well, the horse was transport for 20,000 years and the horse no longer is transport because we invented cars. So, you could say about gold, "It's as irrelevant to modern finance as the horse is to transport." And, I see that argument. I don't entirely agree with it, but I can see it.

And on the other hand, like I say, you could say, "Well, gold has to balance the United States... The balance sheet of the United States." So, it's up to you what argument you want to make at any given time. And in a bear market, you'll find yourself making its irrelevant argument. And in a bull market, you'll find yourself making, "It's going to balance the books of the United States." But anyway, we do seem to be... I'm following all this Luke Gromen stuff, and I'm quite interested about how the east, the Euro-Asian countries, Asian countries are trying to go back to some independent money system.

And by the way, I've spent a long time auditing China's gold, and working out how much they've got, how much they've mind over the last 15 years, how much they've imported, and how much falls into private hands, and how much falls into state hands. And, China's gold holdings are bigger than the United States. They're not declared as bigger. They're declared at 1,600 odd tons, to United States 8,000 tons. But in reality, China's gold holdings are somewhere between 15,000 and 30,000 tons, in my opinion. So, at least twice what the U.S. has. And that's an astonishing fact when you think about the implications. Anyway, so that's gold, and in all probability, my theory is it'll go up a bit, and it'll go down a bit, and it'll go up a bit, and it'll go down a bit, and it'll probably end up in the mid to high 2000s by the time this is all over. So, that's a bit of sensible rational view of gold.

Bitcoin on the other hand is tech. And as you probably know, it's been tracking the NASDAQ and it behaves like a tech stock. Now, I have over the mind that everyone should own some Bitcoin, everyone should have some exposure to it. It's the money of the future. It's the cash system for the internet, but it is not the opportunity that it once was. And every double gets harder than the last. And so, to double from Bitcoin from 50 cents to a dollar, it would've be a 100 million dollars in market cap or something. But, for Bitcoin to go from $40,000 to $80,000, it's at 40,000 now, to go to 80,000 or a $100,000 dollars, we're talking about trillions of dollars of market cap. That's a really difficult double to make.

But at the same time, you look at the Bitcoin chart, it's made a double triple bottom around the $30,000 area. And there four phases to a Bitcoin cycle. There's the quiet accumulation phase, there's the noisy bull market and blow off top, there's the unruly, horrendous, noisy correction. And then, there's the frustrating consolidation. And I would argue that at the moment in Bitcoin, we're probably in that frustrating consolidation phase, which... It has corrections in it, it's frustrating, but it looks like $30,000 is the low. And, if Russia can start World War III and Bitcoin still holds up about above $30,000, I'd say, that's a pretty good sign. But it's so frustrating, and we're probably without even knowing it in one of those quite accumulation phases.

But it does trade like the NASDAQ. It seems to have got itself with the NASDAQ in risk on and risk off. Is the correction in the NASDAQ over? It was one almighty bubble. A lot of those stocks are down 50, 60, 70% now, is that enough? It probably is. But, I don't think we're set for another massive bull market just yet. I think we're still in for a bit of so-called frustrating consolidation, but frustration consolidation is a good time for quite accumulation.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah, very well said. Well said. And, I'm just thinking back to that... You got me scratching my head on China's gold holdings, just as far as the implications for what a... People like to talk about a new monetary world order or something of that nature. What that looks like if you have... As we have seen now, just in the past couple of weeks, I don't think people made lot of noise about this, but I found it just extraordinary that, we had sanctions that were essentially canceling the foreign reserve currency assets of other sovereign nations, central banks. I mean, it was almost as if the United States declared that all of the dollars outside of its national borders are now currency by permission and liable to be canceled if anybody misbehaves. I'm wondering just what the follow-ons of that "permission-based money" might be. And, whether not there might be a risk premium that other large holders like China of U.S. dollars might be now factoring into their future purposes, or their appetite for future purchases.

Dominic Frisby:
Yeah. Well, I'm sure China will be looking at what's happened to Russia, and going, "Wow, we do not want that to happened to us." So, China's got a bit more than $3 trillion, I think. And, it's official gold holdings are 2% of its Forex reserves. Whereas, America's gold holdings are 70%. Now, if China came out and said, "Actually, we've got 15,000 tons of gold, 16,000 tons of gold. We've got twice as much gold as America has." It would be almost a declaration of war. And, it would, A, cause a massive spike in the gold price, because people would go, "Oh actually, gold isn't an irrelevant antiquated asset, it's the money of the future. And China's going to back its one with it." And secondly, it would cause a huge sell off in the United States dollar. And China doesn't want that, the way it's building its economy, it wants to keep its currency cheap, and it doesn't want to destroy the value of its gold holdings. So, as far as declaring its gold, it's declaring the minimum that it can declare and look credible.

Joel Bowman:
Right.

Dominic Frisby:
It's only my theory, but until somebody comes up with a better one, I'm sticking with it. And-

Joel Bowman:
Yeah, no. We're all for we're all for unsubstantiated theories and scuttlebutt here. That's fantastic. I'm thinking that also in the context with their last year, putting the kibosh on crypto mining in China, and there's certainly a chronology to all this that if we were conspiratorially inclined we could build some completely unsupportable scuttlebutt here.

Dominic Frisby:
... Well, yeah. But anyway, I completely agree. Sorry, somebody is WhatsApping me as you talk, and it's making a noise, and I'm apologizing if my mic picks it up, I'm just turning my WhatsApp off now. But yeah, yeah. Anyway, that's my theory on China's thing and it sounds like you're indulging. So, good stuff.

Joel Bowman:
Good stuff.

Dominic Frisby:
But, if I was putting myself in China's thing, it's going to go, "Wow, look at how they've weaponized the dollar. We don't want that to happen to us, at least not just yet." And nor is it, I don't think, going to invade Taiwan because it's just going to see how America's weaponized the dollar against Russia and go, "Well, they'll do that to us. And we'll be screwed, and Apple won't build all its tech here, and it won't build its this and that. And, we're just not ready for that." So, I think China will just quietly stay out of it and continue as much as it possibly can to de-dollarize itself, until it is ready. And, the weaponization of the U.S. dollar, I would argue, has probably worked, because all the oligarchs, surely they're going to have be really hacked off with Putin and they're going to want their money back.

And so, there's going to be so much internal pressure on Putin. I mean, the likelihood is, he's going to drag on, this whole thing's just going to drag on. But, I imagine China will just stay out of it for the time being, and we're going to have this 5, 10 year war in Ukraine, which will be not unlike the war in Afghanistan, which eventually brought down the Soviet Union. It'll probably do the same to Putin eventually. But it will happen quicker, because everything happens quicker now. So, I doubt it'll take 10 years, but it could take three, or four, or five. But yeah, so China is going to do all this stuff, but it's not going to do it yet. But it will have watched what America did, how it weaponized the dollar and thought we're not going to allow that to happen to us.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. Not-

Dominic Frisby:
And they will be preparing and taking the right precautions. And, part of those precautions will involve gold.

Joel Bowman:
... Yeah, I can't imagine them risking three plus trillion dollars of foreign currency reserves and however much gold they've got-

Dominic Frisby:
It's 20 years of savings.

Joel Bowman:
... Yep. There you go.

Dominic Frisby:
20 years of savings and investments. They're not going to throw away tomorrow.

Joel Bowman:
That's a big piggy bank. A big piggy bank. I really appreciate just looking at the clock here, and I know we're ticking up on an hour here. I really appreciate you taking the time. I wanted just move on real quick before we end it for this particular... And hopefully, we get to you back in the future. But I'm planning at some point this year to hopefully take my young family up to the UK. So, I wanted to just touch on a little bit about how travel is going and whether things are getting back to normal. It's interesting that when you and I first started emailing to schedule this podcast a few weeks ago, COVID would've been pretty much front and center, I would suspect of our conversation. And yet, here we are two or three weeks later. What happened to COVID? Where did it go? And, are we able to travel to the UK yet? Am I going to be able to get a pint of your famously warm beer or what?

Dominic Frisby:
I think it was Milton Friedman said that, "The art of politics is getting the wrong people to do the right things." And we had a situation in December where we were about to lock down again, when this a Omicron, however you pronounce it. Omicron is actually the correct pronunciation, but everyone says, "Omicron." But anyway, when this Omicron variant broke in, I guess, it was early December, late November, there was a huge pressure to lock down again. And Boris Johnson was about to lock down, under the advice of all... They're actually called Sage, but his wise government medical advisors. And all the back benches from the conservative parties said, "No, if you lock down the economy again, we're going to do a vote of no confidence in you."

Joel Bowman:
Yeah.

Dominic Frisby:
So, he massively backpedaled, and didn't lock down when the rest of Europe pretty much did lock down. And then, our COVID rates... Omicron was pretty much the best thing that could have happened, in terms of COVID, because it was massively infectious and very, very mild. So, in terms of building up natural antibodies and all the rest of it, it was literally the best thing that could happen. And so, that happened and we let it run, right? And our infection rate was no higher or lower than anywhere else, not significantly so, and nor was our death rate, nor was anything else. And yet, we had a relatively normal Christmas. And then we opened up.

And governments have got no imagination, they're not bold, they're all thinking about career risk. So if somebody else does it, then it's okay to do it. But if you are the pioneer, then they don't want to do it. That's the technocratic mindset, it's the opposite of being an entrepreneur. And, the rest of Europe started to look at England, which didn't lock down. And then, they gradually started copying us. And I think sweet Switzerland a couple of weeks ago decided, "Screw this. We're opening up." And so, I went to Switzerland skiing. Well, I actually went to France skiing, but I went via Geneva, last week. And, I think in one restaurant in France, I got asked for a COVID pass. And I had COVID a few months ago, so I had the COVID pass on my phone. But apart from that, I don't think I got asked once. And then, the only time I did get asked bizarrely was getting on the plane in Geneva, coming back to England, and they want you to do this passenger locator form or something.

And so, I just filled that in, and it was a bit of a palaver in the airport. But anyway, the short of it is, I was able to go to Geneva, and then from Geneva to drive across the border into France, and then have a week skiing in two different resorts in France, and then come back to Geneva. It wasn't quite as relaxed as it was before COVID, but it was significantly less relaxed than it was... You had to wear your mask on the plane and stuff like that.

But, compared to what it was six months or something ago, we're in a much better place. And, you just assume everywhere else will follow. I just think we've got COVID fatigue now. And, everyone's just like, "Well, we're going to have to live with it." And I'm hoping gradually, quietly, while everyone's eyes are on Ukraine, all the laws will be largely relaxed. And, all the various hypocrisies will be quietly brushed under the carpet and we can just move on and get vaguely back to normal. It's never going to be quite what it was, but there's always going to be this unfortunate precedent that's been set. And, every crisis government intervention increases, and it never quite goes, and taxation, and everything increases. And it never goes back to where it was before the crisis started. But hopefully, we're stumbling back to some freedom. And I use that word, relative freedom, let's put it that way.

Joel Bowman:
Yeah. A big asterisk, but yeah, it does seem hopefully that the dominoes are falling. And as you say, they're back-paddling on this as politicians, which is to say quietly and while hopefully attention is distracted elsewhere. But mate, look, thank you very much for your time. Do let our readers and listeners know what you've got coming up. I mentioned the Flying Frisby on Substack where they can check out your articles. I know you're often performing in... Is it Comedy Unleashed? Is that the...

Dominic Frisby:
Yeah, I do a lot of stuff with them. Yeah.

Joel Bowman:
Okay.

Dominic Frisby:
And, I am nothing if not prolific. And, I have a large output, and some people prefer me wearing my financial hat, and some people prefer me wearing my comic songwriter hat. And if you want the financial stuff, I would urge you to go to the Flying Frisby, which is just frisby.substack.com, and sign up for my newsletter there. I've only been doing it for two weeks, but it's been going great. I can't believe how quickly it's become so popular. Substack is just fantastic. Literally, within two weeks, if I want to, I can go and become a digital nomad, and I don't need to be in the UK anymore. Just from two weeks on Substack.

Joel Bowman:
It's a highly recommended lifestyle, by the way.

Dominic Frisby:
Oh my... Yeah, well, I mean, I've just got to do it. Maybe I've been on it a month now, I might be slightly exaggerating. But, Hey, it's the media, we're allowed to.

Joel Bowman:
Exactly.

Dominic Frisby:
But if you want me wearing my comedy songs, go to dominicfrisby.com and you can sign up for a newsletter there. But if you're in the UK, I'm doing a gig on March the 30th, this month at Comedy Unleashed in Bethnal Green, two hours of unacceptable songs and among other things. We'll be singing the libertarian national anthem. And if you like, Joel, you can download the libertarian national anthem off YouTube, and you could end this podcast with it. I can think of no better way to end the podcast than with the National Anthem of Libertaria.

Joel Bowman:
That's fantastic. You've come with your own plug, mate. That's fantastic. You're doing my work for me. Wonderful, mate. Thank you so much again for taking the time. Yeah, listeners tune in for some imminently cancelable comedy with Dominic Frisby and check out his Substack. And, tune in again next week for your next episode of the Fatal Conceits podcast. I'm Joel Bowman, your host. Talk to you again next week.

Dominic Frisby:
Arise libertarians above totalitarians. Our guide is the mighty invisible hand. Reject state controls, collectors and patrollers. Our choices are better than government plans. Taxation is a form of theft. Free markets and free tree are best. Free speech, free movement, free minds, and free choice. Our actions are all voluntary. Not coerced or compulsory. War we abhor, socialism does not work. No debt or inflation, no stealth confiscation. No pigs in the trough at the gravy to drink. No state education to brainwash our nation. No experts dictate what to do, what to think. We scorn your fiat currency. Gold and bitcoin is our money. We own ourselves and we live and let live. We take responsibility. Life, love and liberty. Leave us alone, let a thousand flowers bloom.

Joel Bowman:
Thanks for listening to this episode of the Bonner Private Research podcast. You can find more conversations like this in the members only section of our website at bonnerprivateresearch.com. If you would like to contact us, please address drop your comments in the section below. We look forward to hearing from you either way. Until next week.