I'll never forget the feeling I had after finishing Human Action the first time. "Holy Shit" doesn't do that initial feeling justice. Mises completely obliterated central planning, monetary intervention, and Socialism. It wasn't even a contest. Yes, central planning, monetary intervention, and Socialism are still with us, but its not because they add value to society. They're still with us because they're tools miscreants can use to tilt the scales in their favor. Robert Reich can't carry Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Friedrich Hayek's water. Reich is just another economically illiterate statist shill. They break your legs, hand you a crutch, and tell you they fixed your problem.
Where I come from, we would say Reich can't carry Von Mises', Rothbard's or Hayek's jocks (but I bet the little fella would love to). The problem (IMO) is there are far too many over-educated, useless, pseudo-intellectuals that could not ever cut it in the private sector. This is why they become miscreants and secrete themselves into government. Your take is both spot on and prescient. I thank you for that.
I was curious what is Robert Reich's solution to inflation. Here it is:
1. Breakup the big corporations. Stop consolidation using vigorous antitrust enforcement.
2. Windfall profit taxes
3. Price controls
The heavy hand of government! The danger to us all is that Mr. Reich is a very popular and a well spoken progressive. He maintains many contacts with Democrats in Congress, has a popular Substack forum with thousands of subscribers, and runs a social media organization (Inequality Media) that produces numerous YouTube videos promoting his ideas.
Reich and Bill are in agreement in their dislike of the Fed, though for different reasons!
I'm always amazed at how straightforward and simple Bill explains the economic issues. Very logical. Hard, simple truths that can't be denied logically.
After today's (01/10/2022) close the 10 year versus 3 month inversion is (1.04%). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tracks this spread back to 01/04/1982. The prior high water inversion was (.77%) back in December of 2000. We're making history right now, just not the right kind. The yield curve has been my favorite and most accurate market timing tool for decades. I went from fearing deflation to rooting for it. Anythings possible in life, but planning for a soft landing will more than likely be a losing strategy.
When the yield curve inverted back in March 2019, I started the process of raising cash like I've done with previous inversions. As the year went on without a recession I began questioning whether this metric was still valid. Especially after all of the unprecedented central bank monetary intervention. Well, the Covid lockdowns provided us with yet another deflationary payday and proved once again that this is a fantastic market timing tool. When the yield curve inverts I don't hesitate to get out of the water.
A financial advisor my parents used for over 35 years (and only manages the portfolio I inherited from them) was looking at my assets just yesterday (which she is not allowed to touch) and questioned my sanity. Her comment, "It's insane to have that much cash sitting out of the market!" I just smiled and said, "That's my dry powder and it's going to stay that way."
As of today's close a 6 month treasury is yielding 4.863%. Hopefully, your financial advisor is taking advantage of this for you. By the way, the 10 to 3 month inversion is up to (1.14%) :-)
Actually I am. She has "my parents" money in a bunch of blue chip, dividend producing stuff. But, she's struggling to yield 4 percent on that stuff. It's a good thing she doesn't charge any fees or commissions. (Then again, maybe I'm getting what I pay for.)
USA needs to print more money. Put the printing machine on auto pilot and let it print money until the motors burn out. Then hand it out for free to anyone in this country, regardless of their status.
Oh, you’re from Venezuela? Ok pal, here’s $10,000 grand and a nice cozy apartment rent free. And you Sir, from where? Ecuador? Jim, where the heck is Ecuador? Who cares, just give him $10,000 and another 5K for the airfare.
Sir, how do we justify printing all this free money?
Well son, think about it this way, in 1918 the world population was estimated at 1.8 billion people, today it’s estimated to be 8 billion, it’s up 3-fold. A 6 billion consumer addition to civilization. 6 billion contributions require extra cash and enormous purchasing global economic power.
The trillions and trillions of dollars that were not necessary in 1918 based on the world population are now essential to the survival of global civilization.
If the deficit was 300 million plus in the 50’s, a 500 Trillion deficit before 2025 is peanuts. So print away Mr. Fed, and forget about all the other global currencies in existence yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expected the stock to go to $430 by the end of the year". Maybe the guy missed putting the hundreth decimal point in his analysis.
"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expected the stock to go to $430 by the end of the year". Maybe the guy missed putting the hundreth decimal point in his analysis.
Man this would be fun, but I'd catch a bullet within a week. First, lock up the printing press and stop all monetary intervention. Second, tell Congress their credit card has been cancelled. From now on the Statists have to live within their means, like the rest of us working stiffs. The swamp would be gone within a month and the FED would be busy attempting to fulfill their original mandate; Lender of Last Resort. Unfortunately this is all just fantasy land; an irredeemably corrupt government will never voluntarily take the medicine to cure itself.
They're not going to voluntarily give up their no limit credit card. They're going to take us all over the cliff. Interventionism begets more interventionism. The Federal Reserve's main mission now is to delay the day of reckoning. 1913 was one really bad year. The last progressive era was an epic dumpster fire, but this new one has the potential to be epic. If Teddy Roosevelt didn't run as an independent in 1912 (Progressive Party :-)) we most likely would have avoided the Woodrow Wilson train wreck. It could be an ominous sign if Trump runs for president as an independent. As they say, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
I agree, but unfortunately a lot of folks don't. This is a recipe for how we get 4 more years of Joke Biden or Gruesome Newsom. Roosevelt's ego opened the door for Wilson. One thing we know about Trump; he has ego in spades :-)
Personally, I have fed that burnt toast to the birds, but REALLY want RdS to stay here in FLA for 6 more years. Imagine what a bastion of Freedom we could become and all the adherent benefits for the residents.
Well fair question , but difficult to answer I guess .
You are offering a job which most look at 31 Trillion debt and counting for the Fed’s and more than 93 trillions all together in the USA . Volker got it when not so much later . Here is like the firemen coming to the spot after the fire has almost done it s work .nothing much left to save. Je.pense pas certain .
In the late 1980s, lots of folks thought the Japanese were going to pass the USA and take over first place in the world. Everything was coming up roses for them (remember Deming and Total Quality Management?). Then came the crash of their economy and stagnation. We seem to be heading in the same general direction. I sometimes wonder if the same thing might happen to China too.
Thank you Dorothy , your uncle and I must have same age ... yes dis started in 1976 as a bouillion and forex trader ... I remember that période like it was yesterday... my Lord time goes 😉
It wasn’t temporary, because like the plug in the dyke, once the dyke breaks you’ll need more than a plug. Going off the gold standard isn’t easily reversible. Like when you overspend on your credit card and don’t earn enough to pay back the interest - useless removing the debt limit. You probably will never be able to put it back.
I'll never forget the feeling I had after finishing Human Action the first time. "Holy Shit" doesn't do that initial feeling justice. Mises completely obliterated central planning, monetary intervention, and Socialism. It wasn't even a contest. Yes, central planning, monetary intervention, and Socialism are still with us, but its not because they add value to society. They're still with us because they're tools miscreants can use to tilt the scales in their favor. Robert Reich can't carry Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Friedrich Hayek's water. Reich is just another economically illiterate statist shill. They break your legs, hand you a crutch, and tell you they fixed your problem.
Where I come from, we would say Reich can't carry Von Mises', Rothbard's or Hayek's jocks (but I bet the little fella would love to). The problem (IMO) is there are far too many over-educated, useless, pseudo-intellectuals that could not ever cut it in the private sector. This is why they become miscreants and secrete themselves into government. Your take is both spot on and prescient. I thank you for that.
Check out “the un-communist manifesto” by mark ross. Pretty good too.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/01/09/us-strategic-aim-break-and-dismember-russia-or-maintain-us-dollar-hegemony-or-muddled-both/
Off topic. This guy's writing is awesome.
Very interesting reading. Thanks
I was curious what is Robert Reich's solution to inflation. Here it is:
1. Breakup the big corporations. Stop consolidation using vigorous antitrust enforcement.
2. Windfall profit taxes
3. Price controls
The heavy hand of government! The danger to us all is that Mr. Reich is a very popular and a well spoken progressive. He maintains many contacts with Democrats in Congress, has a popular Substack forum with thousands of subscribers, and runs a social media organization (Inequality Media) that produces numerous YouTube videos promoting his ideas.
Reich and Bill are in agreement in their dislike of the Fed, though for different reasons!
Ah, windfall profit taxes... yes that surely will be a solution (not)
I'm always amazed at how straightforward and simple Bill explains the economic issues. Very logical. Hard, simple truths that can't be denied logically.
After today's (01/10/2022) close the 10 year versus 3 month inversion is (1.04%). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tracks this spread back to 01/04/1982. The prior high water inversion was (.77%) back in December of 2000. We're making history right now, just not the right kind. The yield curve has been my favorite and most accurate market timing tool for decades. I went from fearing deflation to rooting for it. Anythings possible in life, but planning for a soft landing will more than likely be a losing strategy.
The chances of a "soft landing" are less than you and me picking the Power Ball lottery right about now.
When the yield curve inverted back in March 2019, I started the process of raising cash like I've done with previous inversions. As the year went on without a recession I began questioning whether this metric was still valid. Especially after all of the unprecedented central bank monetary intervention. Well, the Covid lockdowns provided us with yet another deflationary payday and proved once again that this is a fantastic market timing tool. When the yield curve inverts I don't hesitate to get out of the water.
A financial advisor my parents used for over 35 years (and only manages the portfolio I inherited from them) was looking at my assets just yesterday (which she is not allowed to touch) and questioned my sanity. Her comment, "It's insane to have that much cash sitting out of the market!" I just smiled and said, "That's my dry powder and it's going to stay that way."
As of today's close a 6 month treasury is yielding 4.863%. Hopefully, your financial advisor is taking advantage of this for you. By the way, the 10 to 3 month inversion is up to (1.14%) :-)
Actually I am. She has "my parents" money in a bunch of blue chip, dividend producing stuff. But, she's struggling to yield 4 percent on that stuff. It's a good thing she doesn't charge any fees or commissions. (Then again, maybe I'm getting what I pay for.)
Wrong!
USA needs to print more money. Put the printing machine on auto pilot and let it print money until the motors burn out. Then hand it out for free to anyone in this country, regardless of their status.
Oh, you’re from Venezuela? Ok pal, here’s $10,000 grand and a nice cozy apartment rent free. And you Sir, from where? Ecuador? Jim, where the heck is Ecuador? Who cares, just give him $10,000 and another 5K for the airfare.
Sir, how do we justify printing all this free money?
Well son, think about it this way, in 1918 the world population was estimated at 1.8 billion people, today it’s estimated to be 8 billion, it’s up 3-fold. A 6 billion consumer addition to civilization. 6 billion contributions require extra cash and enormous purchasing global economic power.
The trillions and trillions of dollars that were not necessary in 1918 based on the world population are now essential to the survival of global civilization.
If the deficit was 300 million plus in the 50’s, a 500 Trillion deficit before 2025 is peanuts. So print away Mr. Fed, and forget about all the other global currencies in existence yesterday, today, and tomorrow.
Hahahaha! 😂😹
It would certainly drag the party on for longer
"Free tip: Keep a pair of shorts handy."
Joel, I assume you are talking about the swim variety rather than the financial, although I have some of both, now that I think about it.
both 😎
"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expected the stock to go to $430 by the end of the year". Maybe the guy missed putting the hundreth decimal point in his analysis.
"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he expected the stock to go to $430 by the end of the year". Maybe the guy missed putting the hundreth decimal point in his analysis.
Hilarious, if you have a macabre financial sense of humor. Got Gold & Tequila Anejo….. Dave
I stumbled across this interesting chart. Hope the link works.
https://www.emailimagecdnuyi.com/tjhzl8fqow/en_us/images/63bcc6fcbd246-1673316092.7747.png
Man this would be fun, but I'd catch a bullet within a week. First, lock up the printing press and stop all monetary intervention. Second, tell Congress their credit card has been cancelled. From now on the Statists have to live within their means, like the rest of us working stiffs. The swamp would be gone within a month and the FED would be busy attempting to fulfill their original mandate; Lender of Last Resort. Unfortunately this is all just fantasy land; an irredeemably corrupt government will never voluntarily take the medicine to cure itself.
They're not going to voluntarily give up their no limit credit card. They're going to take us all over the cliff. Interventionism begets more interventionism. The Federal Reserve's main mission now is to delay the day of reckoning. 1913 was one really bad year. The last progressive era was an epic dumpster fire, but this new one has the potential to be epic. If Teddy Roosevelt didn't run as an independent in 1912 (Progressive Party :-)) we most likely would have avoided the Woodrow Wilson train wreck. It could be an ominous sign if Trump runs for president as an independent. As they say, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
I agree, but unfortunately a lot of folks don't. This is a recipe for how we get 4 more years of Joke Biden or Gruesome Newsom. Roosevelt's ego opened the door for Wilson. One thing we know about Trump; he has ego in spades :-)
Many have moved on from Trump, unfortunately he hasn't figured that out.
Personally, I have fed that burnt toast to the birds, but REALLY want RdS to stay here in FLA for 6 more years. Imagine what a bastion of Freedom we could become and all the adherent benefits for the residents.
Quite the conundrum...
Hi PG V ,
Well fair question , but difficult to answer I guess .
You are offering a job which most look at 31 Trillion debt and counting for the Fed’s and more than 93 trillions all together in the USA . Volker got it when not so much later . Here is like the firemen coming to the spot after the fire has almost done it s work .nothing much left to save. Je.pense pas certain .
In the late 1980s, lots of folks thought the Japanese were going to pass the USA and take over first place in the world. Everything was coming up roses for them (remember Deming and Total Quality Management?). Then came the crash of their economy and stagnation. We seem to be heading in the same general direction. I sometimes wonder if the same thing might happen to China too.
Very good.! My uncle complimented you. He said you were right on since he was somewhat involved during that time.
Thank you Dorothy , your uncle and I must have same age ... yes dis started in 1976 as a bouillion and forex trader ... I remember that période like it was yesterday... my Lord time goes 😉
It wasn’t temporary, because like the plug in the dyke, once the dyke breaks you’ll need more than a plug. Going off the gold standard isn’t easily reversible. Like when you overspend on your credit card and don’t earn enough to pay back the interest - useless removing the debt limit. You probably will never be able to put it back.
Bonne année PG V 👍