It’s the Debt Stupid, Part Duh

The bills, great or small, are still unpaid. They are among the $40 trillion worth of accumulated federal debt that must be serviced every year, for ever and ever and ever. Amen.

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France

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Reuters:

Japan’s benchmark 30-year bond yield hit the 3% level for the first time since 1996 on Tuesday amid a broad-based global bond sell-off

MarketWatch:

From the UK to Japan, bond yields are jumping as US bonds tumble

Sometimes, the most obvious problems are the easiest to solve. An alcoholic has problems. His wife doesn’t understand him. His boss doesn’t like him. He needs a new car. His head aches and his friends desert him.

But his major problem: he drinks too much. This is very easy to correct. Just stop drinking. The simplicity of it makes it almost unbearable...and unthinkable.

Japan has been on a bender for 35 years. Its stock market bubble popped in 1990. Its feds have been pumping like crazy ever since, trying to get the buzz back on. They’ve inflated Japanese government debt to the largest in the world — at 250% of GDP, twice the US level — hoping to revive those glorious, intoxicating go-go years of the 1980s. That was when Japan Inc. was the envy of every business school in the world.

Back then, in the ‘80s, Japan’s industries —Mitsubishi, Toyota, Honda — dominated the financial pages. Then, after the crash, Japan continued to lead the world, but in borrowing. And now Japan has one massive hangover.

When you stop drinking your recovery begins almost immediately. But as Marc Antony said over the body of Caesar, ‘the evil that men do lives after them.’ You can stop spending, but the shadow of the past -- debt -- stays with you.

And Japan is not the only one living in the shade of debt. It’s been party time, worldwide, ever since Alan Greenspan revealed his ‘put option’ for the stock market. Free drinks. No closing time. Stock prices could go up all they wanted; but if they began to fall, the Fed would cut rates to catch them.

As a result, world debt is estimated at $329 trillion — or more than three times GDP. The US is right in line with more than $100 trillion in debt...or, about three times GDP. That doesn’t include the $15 trillion or so the feds are legally obligated to pay their own government retirees.

The dipsomaniac may be jolly or morose...rich or poor...smart or dumb. But until he gets that monkey off his back, he’s going to have trouble.

The US has problems too. Iran. Canada. A ‘heat dome.’ Water shortages. Hurricanes. Illegal immigrants. Obstreperousness overseas. Lawlessness at home. Mosquitoes. But the big ape on the back of the US is obvious. It’s the one neither political party wants to talk about. And no wonder; they put it there.

It’s the debt, stupid-- the price of all the dumb ‘problem solving’ of the past. Who wants to remember them? Old girlfriends. Empty bottles and cigar stubs. Yesterday’s newspapers. The Gulf War of 1991...Obama’s record $1.4 trillion deficit in 2009, LA riots of 1992...Hurricane Andrew...Oklahoma City bombing...Monica Lewinsky?

All have faded from public memory...but the bills, great or small, are still unpaid. They are among the $40 trillion worth of accumulated federal debt that must be serviced every year, for ever and ever, Amen. At just 5% interest, the annual charge will soon come to $2 trillion per year, whether anyone remembers what the money was spent on or not. Federal tax receipts last year were $5.2 trillion. So, nearly half of the feds’ revenue is now headed to pay for things that were always a waste of money...and now, are largely forgotten.

Politicians don’t want to talk about it because solving the debt problem will hurt. Like cutting off a gangrenous finger without anesthetic or going ‘cold turkey’ in an asylum, neither party has the stomach for it. The voters will howl. The press will harrumph. Wall Street will quake. And, most likely, some fringy politician will take charge...and start a war to take our minds off of it.

You can ignore a debt build-up; for a long time, it will seem ‘manageable.’ But then, after a party, you end up in a ditch. Drying out (aka deflation) won’t be pleasant. People only do it because the alternative is worse.

A debt hangover is hard to shake off. Short term interest rates are lower...and closer to ‘cash.’ So, the feds moved more of their borrowing to the short end of the yield curve. This leaves them needing to ‘rollover’ their debt more frequently — even as interest rates go up. Even if they balanced the budget tomorrow, they’d still need to refinance more than $1 trillion per month.

A report from Armstrong Economics tells us that $29 trillion will be borrowed this year:

Governments and corporations are expected to borrow a record $29 trillion from global bond markets in 2026, according to the OECD. That is $4 trillion more than in 2024 and twice the amount borrowed only ten years ago. This is the Ponzi structure underlying modern government finance.

Carlo Ponzi might be proud. Practically all of the world’s post-war western governments adopted his model.

But where are we going with this? Where else, the same place it took Ponzi himself: to Hell in a handcart! Ponzi died in a charity ward in Brazil, with only $75 to his name.

And now, there is no way a society can devote half its government’s revenues to paying for the bad investments of the past...at least, not indefinitely. And the most likely ‘solution’ is the most dangerous and painful one — inflating away the debt...which is like curing the hangover with a bottle of gin before breakfast.

But we shouldn’t be too surprised if a more audacious leader — such as Jean-Luc Melenchon in France — comes along with a more radical plan. The French leftist proposes to simply renege on a portion of French debt.

And maybe that wouldn’t be such a bad idea...

Stay tuned...

Regards,

Bill Bonner