Measured in gold, the story takes an even darker turn. Instead of being worth 38 billion ounces of gold, today’s economy is worth only 7.5 billion ounces — less than a quarter as much.
I would say down or declining. And currently it seems the government is focused elsewhere - against so many countries. To name a few Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Buso Farina, and on and on. Hopefully one of these days it will be on America.
I don’t get out much. Things change. I probably will get out less. The diminishments have hit. “The One Horse Shay,” that wonderful creation, the body, is breaking down.
I just wonder at the McDonald’s effect; two small sandwiches and small fries seem to cost $15.00, and a smaller large coffee above $3.00. You can make the same things at home, more nutritious, bigger for $.25 on the dollar. Still, McDonalds is busy. My grandson works at Starbucks, which I always considered lunacy, and people flock, especially those in most debt. And cars, the prices take your breath away; you need a mortgage.
It seems crazy, yet it goes on and on.
Maybe, it is irrational exuberance in a different form. Certainly, it is irrational.
Kinda sweet… America finally skipped past the foreplay and got straight to the wet donkey punch. They ain’t even trying to pretend anymore. Corruption with a coupon code. Promo code: GOPOCALYPSE! The Elite are making money while we’re in line at the pump paying $180 for a full tank of gas, a slurpee, and a hot dog that’s seen more rotation than a stripper spinning on a ceiling fan! You thought it was bad before! This is the vacation package to hell folks!
It ain’t left versus right anymore… it’s rich versus the idiots who still think they’re gonna win the lottery. And guess what? We ain’t rich. We’re the “control” group in the worst psychological experiment ever run. They ain’t even HIDING the crime now. They’re live-streaming it. They’re putting filters on it. They’re putting dog ears on their felony. The new motto of the country is, screw the poor, feed the rich, and blame the wind. And if the numbers don’t make sense… they don’t have to, because we’re not a country anyway, we’re a theme park.
Yesterday was NOT an election,
It was a fleecing. It’s over! The Libs ran the football to the end zone, spiked it, stomped the Ref’s head. They didn’t pull a fast one. They pulled a Wedding Night Switch. Today they WOKE up married to its gambling debts, its student loans, and its ugly cousin who smells like wet drywall.
Let’s be honest, It’s all funny…media keeps talking like there’s “sides.” The Far Left vs Right? Liberal vs republican? Nah… it’s the greatest buddy comedy in history. They ALL work together. The joke is us. The punchline is also us. The set up is us. And the callback? Sorry, It’s still us.
So don’t kid yourself with “the tide has turned” nonsense. Tides don’t turn in politics. They just change WHO gets to lie to you. Same con. Same casino. Same house take. Different dealer wearing a different lapel pin! The United States of Casino Land. Population: all suckers.
Have two questions please. If we are comparing GDP and the dollar value from 1999 to 2025, does it not work the same way with the debt. Would not $56 trillion only be $28 trillion in 1999 dollar value. And if we compare the debt to gold in 1999 $300 dollars per oz to gold in 2025 $4,000 dollar an oz., the 1999 debt would have been 1,042,000 tons of gold versus the 2025 debt that is worth 438,000 tons of gold. So, in gold terms, the 1999 debt is over 2 times as much, I think!! I'm missing something, but it's your fault. You have been having me compart things to the price of gold now for 25 years.
No doubt you speak the truth Bill. I live in a relatively well to do area but I see the difficulties all around us. Do you think that DC, NYC and San Fran can thrive without the American citizenry pursuing their dreams... can the American citizenry thrive under the grifts of DC, NYC and San Fran?
You gotta have an American citizenry first to survive. Half of New York City today is not a traditional American citizenry, and therein lies the problem. The turning point is here: the snowball gets bigger and gathers momentum going forward. Sorry, but them's the breaks. Best always. PM
...but, but... liberals everywhere telling me diversity is our strength.
Why... without diversity how else could we engage in endless protests and propagations against traditional Americana culture?
How else could we dilute the Union and create cultural bias, political upheaval?
Why it just wouldn't be America without foreign nationals parading their flag on the streets of the U.S.A. for want of our gov't change.
With out diversity, how could the liberal media broadcast the hate towards whitey?
The U.S.A. really must be a rotten place to live, just ask Bill...
After all, the U.S. being so racist, so bias, it's a wonder any want to come here at all, excepting of course the millions trying desperately to get in...
So true the freedom speaks volumes. Ironic but true. But then the question is will society realize what they have or be coerced by the fake freebee narrative? Looking at NYCity's recent mayor certainly does not support society realizing the value of freedom. I find the NYC mayor race simply amazing. These people on wlefare or freebee living simply can't see how they are moving downhill.
Depends what you mean by “traditional American citizenry.” The Lenape and other Indigenous nations lived on that island long before Europeans showed up, built over it, and pushed them onto land no one else wanted. If “being here first” is the standard, then most of us are guests on someone else’s land. America has always been a rotating mix of newcomers — that’s the actual tradition.
Is it Paul’s ignorance for freezing ‘traditional America’ in whatever moment he personally prefers, as if history ended when his grandparents arrived? Or mine, for pointing out that if we’re talking about tradition, the first tradition on this continent was Europeans showing up, taking land that wasn’t theirs, and pushing the original inhabitants onto the worst spaces left over?
We can’t cheer that era as destiny when it benefits us, then panic when newcomers show up using the same logic: ‘We want a better life.’ That’s the actual American pattern. Always has been. Waves of immigrants reshaping the culture — including the ones some earlier group hated.
The irony is not that migration changes nations. The irony is people pretending it only counts as ‘invasion’ when it’s their turn to feel uncomfortable.
You speak as if the times are the same back when you could travel for days without seeing anyone and the West had a few thousand people. Indian tribes conquered other tribes just as Europe had conquerors and conquered. No difference except now there are 360 million more people here. And if the USA is not careful we will go the way of Europe and lose the culture that made us special. UK is losing its identity to Muslims. Ireland has more immigrants than Irish now I read. And all are more unsafe than 20 years ago. Now NYC has a socialist mayor.
You speak like the land-your-grandparents-bought (or were “given”) version of history.
The Lenape and dozens of other nations lived on this island long before Europeans arrived.
What followed was conquest, dispossession, and settlement.
If “being here first” is the standard, then the majority of Americans are guests on someone else’s land.
The real tradition of America is constant renewal where waves of newcomers are constantly reshaping the country. As opposed to a static, frozen identity.
If you want to debate policy, let’s do that.
If you want to pretend history didn’t happen, that’s not a debate.
With grocery stores closing due to increased theft (will this also include government stores in NYC?), SNAP benefits cut, and the dollar worth less and less, how far from major riots breaking out that may be armed?
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports
Put numbers to it:
Consumption (C): ~68-70% of GDP ≈ $19.5–$21 trillion
Investment (I): ~18% of GDP ≈ $5 trillion
Government Spending (G): ~17% of GDP ≈ $4.5–$5 trillion (only purchases of goods and services — transfers excluded)
Net Exports: consistently negative ≈ –$1 to –$1.3 trillion
Total: ~$29 trillion
Now here's what nobody talks about:
A massive chunk of that $20T in consumption isn't coming from wages or productive income. Roughly $4.5–$5T comes from government transfer payments. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, disability, SNAP, refundable tax credits, welfare programs, and pensions.
These transfers don't count in the G bucket. They're not government purchases. They only show up once. When households spend them as consumption (C). So there's no "double counting" in the technical sense.
But there IS a massive sustainability problem:
Those transfers are funded by deficit spending. In 2024, the federal government spent $6.9 trillion but only collected $4.9 trillion in revenue, borrowing over $2 trillion to cover the gap, on top of a $34+ trillion national debt (at the time).
Meanwhile, as Bill pointed out, households are carrying record debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans, buy-now-pay-later schemes. More consumption that didn't come from earned income.
So yes, GDP rises. Politicians celebrate. Economists say growth is solid. But an ever-larger share isn't coming from productive output, it's government borrowing to fund transfers, and households borrowing to spend them. The accounting is technically correct. But the foundation is shaky.
The US is not growing wealth. Like Bill said, it's spending the future. Today.
Significant technology advances are often deflationary, by reducing the costs of delivering existing value and by creating new value without extra costs. An example of this is the just-in-time manufacturing technology/methodology first perfected by Toyota, which enabled more reliable cars to be built at lower prices starting way back in the 1980's.
GDP is an imprecise measure of economic value experienced by a country and its people. In the case of many technology advances, it understates economic value that is created.
Am I right in remembering that credit card debt in America is not included in the event of personal bankruptcy? So if you go bankrupt the credit card company can still hound you for the money?
At least we the people will have some of the straightest backs on earth from what the elites are giving us. So, in the end we will be receiving something for our dedication.
Like to use my yardstick to help determine state of the economy. It works this way. Get in your car and drive into a residential area checking what sits in the yards that are for sale.How many cars do you see? How many motorcycles. How many snowmobiles,etc. I think this is a great indicator of the economic climate. Another is the number of online auctions. I wonder how many auto loans are being foreclosed but I don't know how to find that info, how many houses, how many farms? The yardstick method is probably the clearest indicator of all for most of us because it showed us what is happening right now. I am seeing an increase in yard traffic every month. Wonder what that means. Ummm.
Bill shows (proves to) us the direction we are REALLY headed: BACKWARDS
I would say down or declining. And currently it seems the government is focused elsewhere - against so many countries. To name a few Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Buso Farina, and on and on. Hopefully one of these days it will be on America.
...you wish the focus would be against America as it is now against so many others?
Where or what is Buso Farina ?
I bet he meant Burkina Faso (sp?).
Ta. That’s a long way from Southern Australia. 😂
I don’t get out much. Things change. I probably will get out less. The diminishments have hit. “The One Horse Shay,” that wonderful creation, the body, is breaking down.
I just wonder at the McDonald’s effect; two small sandwiches and small fries seem to cost $15.00, and a smaller large coffee above $3.00. You can make the same things at home, more nutritious, bigger for $.25 on the dollar. Still, McDonalds is busy. My grandson works at Starbucks, which I always considered lunacy, and people flock, especially those in most debt. And cars, the prices take your breath away; you need a mortgage.
It seems crazy, yet it goes on and on.
Maybe, it is irrational exuberance in a different form. Certainly, it is irrational.
Kinda sweet… America finally skipped past the foreplay and got straight to the wet donkey punch. They ain’t even trying to pretend anymore. Corruption with a coupon code. Promo code: GOPOCALYPSE! The Elite are making money while we’re in line at the pump paying $180 for a full tank of gas, a slurpee, and a hot dog that’s seen more rotation than a stripper spinning on a ceiling fan! You thought it was bad before! This is the vacation package to hell folks!
It ain’t left versus right anymore… it’s rich versus the idiots who still think they’re gonna win the lottery. And guess what? We ain’t rich. We’re the “control” group in the worst psychological experiment ever run. They ain’t even HIDING the crime now. They’re live-streaming it. They’re putting filters on it. They’re putting dog ears on their felony. The new motto of the country is, screw the poor, feed the rich, and blame the wind. And if the numbers don’t make sense… they don’t have to, because we’re not a country anyway, we’re a theme park.
Yesterday was NOT an election,
It was a fleecing. It’s over! The Libs ran the football to the end zone, spiked it, stomped the Ref’s head. They didn’t pull a fast one. They pulled a Wedding Night Switch. Today they WOKE up married to its gambling debts, its student loans, and its ugly cousin who smells like wet drywall.
Let’s be honest, It’s all funny…media keeps talking like there’s “sides.” The Far Left vs Right? Liberal vs republican? Nah… it’s the greatest buddy comedy in history. They ALL work together. The joke is us. The punchline is also us. The set up is us. And the callback? Sorry, It’s still us.
So don’t kid yourself with “the tide has turned” nonsense. Tides don’t turn in politics. They just change WHO gets to lie to you. Same con. Same casino. Same house take. Different dealer wearing a different lapel pin! The United States of Casino Land. Population: all suckers.
left wing….right wing…..same wing nut
Bill,
Have two questions please. If we are comparing GDP and the dollar value from 1999 to 2025, does it not work the same way with the debt. Would not $56 trillion only be $28 trillion in 1999 dollar value. And if we compare the debt to gold in 1999 $300 dollars per oz to gold in 2025 $4,000 dollar an oz., the 1999 debt would have been 1,042,000 tons of gold versus the 2025 debt that is worth 438,000 tons of gold. So, in gold terms, the 1999 debt is over 2 times as much, I think!! I'm missing something, but it's your fault. You have been having me compart things to the price of gold now for 25 years.
Jim C.
No doubt you speak the truth Bill. I live in a relatively well to do area but I see the difficulties all around us. Do you think that DC, NYC and San Fran can thrive without the American citizenry pursuing their dreams... can the American citizenry thrive under the grifts of DC, NYC and San Fran?
You gotta have an American citizenry first to survive. Half of New York City today is not a traditional American citizenry, and therein lies the problem. The turning point is here: the snowball gets bigger and gathers momentum going forward. Sorry, but them's the breaks. Best always. PM
...but, but... liberals everywhere telling me diversity is our strength.
Why... without diversity how else could we engage in endless protests and propagations against traditional Americana culture?
How else could we dilute the Union and create cultural bias, political upheaval?
Why it just wouldn't be America without foreign nationals parading their flag on the streets of the U.S.A. for want of our gov't change.
With out diversity, how could the liberal media broadcast the hate towards whitey?
The U.S.A. really must be a rotten place to live, just ask Bill...
After all, the U.S. being so racist, so bias, it's a wonder any want to come here at all, excepting of course the millions trying desperately to get in...
So true the freedom speaks volumes. Ironic but true. But then the question is will society realize what they have or be coerced by the fake freebee narrative? Looking at NYCity's recent mayor certainly does not support society realizing the value of freedom. I find the NYC mayor race simply amazing. These people on wlefare or freebee living simply can't see how they are moving downhill.
... intelligence begins with self-awareness.
Depends what you mean by “traditional American citizenry.” The Lenape and other Indigenous nations lived on that island long before Europeans showed up, built over it, and pushed them onto land no one else wanted. If “being here first” is the standard, then most of us are guests on someone else’s land. America has always been a rotating mix of newcomers — that’s the actual tradition.
Ignorance like this is how we got into the mess we are in.
Ignorance? Please, elucidate.
Is it Paul’s ignorance for freezing ‘traditional America’ in whatever moment he personally prefers, as if history ended when his grandparents arrived? Or mine, for pointing out that if we’re talking about tradition, the first tradition on this continent was Europeans showing up, taking land that wasn’t theirs, and pushing the original inhabitants onto the worst spaces left over?
We can’t cheer that era as destiny when it benefits us, then panic when newcomers show up using the same logic: ‘We want a better life.’ That’s the actual American pattern. Always has been. Waves of immigrants reshaping the culture — including the ones some earlier group hated.
The irony is not that migration changes nations. The irony is people pretending it only counts as ‘invasion’ when it’s their turn to feel uncomfortable.
You speak as if the times are the same back when you could travel for days without seeing anyone and the West had a few thousand people. Indian tribes conquered other tribes just as Europe had conquerors and conquered. No difference except now there are 360 million more people here. And if the USA is not careful we will go the way of Europe and lose the culture that made us special. UK is losing its identity to Muslims. Ireland has more immigrants than Irish now I read. And all are more unsafe than 20 years ago. Now NYC has a socialist mayor.
You speak like the land-your-grandparents-bought (or were “given”) version of history.
The Lenape and dozens of other nations lived on this island long before Europeans arrived.
What followed was conquest, dispossession, and settlement.
If “being here first” is the standard, then the majority of Americans are guests on someone else’s land.
The real tradition of America is constant renewal where waves of newcomers are constantly reshaping the country. As opposed to a static, frozen identity.
If you want to debate policy, let’s do that.
If you want to pretend history didn’t happen, that’s not a debate.
That's just you sticking your head in the sand.
apparently cars are also being repossessed in wealthy areas now, which speaks to the humungous problem of debt for the US & therefore the world
If one's auto is being repossessed, they are spending too much elsewhere...
One's transportation is likely one of the more crucial expense items.
Is the problem debt or irresponsible spending?
Did you really need to purchase a Porsche while the Mercedes was out for repair?
could be both or admin issues
Bonner writes, "Real GDP happens when money is earned...not when it is spent." Once in a while, Bill hits the nail on the head!
With grocery stores closing due to increased theft (will this also include government stores in NYC?), SNAP benefits cut, and the dollar worth less and less, how far from major riots breaking out that may be armed?
In answer to the first part of your question Tom, only if they want bread...
GDP looks complicated, but it's just a formula:
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports
Put numbers to it:
Consumption (C): ~68-70% of GDP ≈ $19.5–$21 trillion
Investment (I): ~18% of GDP ≈ $5 trillion
Government Spending (G): ~17% of GDP ≈ $4.5–$5 trillion (only purchases of goods and services — transfers excluded)
Net Exports: consistently negative ≈ –$1 to –$1.3 trillion
Total: ~$29 trillion
Now here's what nobody talks about:
A massive chunk of that $20T in consumption isn't coming from wages or productive income. Roughly $4.5–$5T comes from government transfer payments. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, disability, SNAP, refundable tax credits, welfare programs, and pensions.
These transfers don't count in the G bucket. They're not government purchases. They only show up once. When households spend them as consumption (C). So there's no "double counting" in the technical sense.
But there IS a massive sustainability problem:
Those transfers are funded by deficit spending. In 2024, the federal government spent $6.9 trillion but only collected $4.9 trillion in revenue, borrowing over $2 trillion to cover the gap, on top of a $34+ trillion national debt (at the time).
Meanwhile, as Bill pointed out, households are carrying record debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans, buy-now-pay-later schemes. More consumption that didn't come from earned income.
So yes, GDP rises. Politicians celebrate. Economists say growth is solid. But an ever-larger share isn't coming from productive output, it's government borrowing to fund transfers, and households borrowing to spend them. The accounting is technically correct. But the foundation is shaky.
The US is not growing wealth. Like Bill said, it's spending the future. Today.
"A study of the housing market showed that declining prices didn’t change consumer habits".
?
"A" study?
What?
Only one?
...likely only one... because common sense and logic dictate lower prices does induce spending.
Here's a different twist on GDP ....
Significant technology advances are often deflationary, by reducing the costs of delivering existing value and by creating new value without extra costs. An example of this is the just-in-time manufacturing technology/methodology first perfected by Toyota, which enabled more reliable cars to be built at lower prices starting way back in the 1980's.
GDP is an imprecise measure of economic value experienced by a country and its people. In the case of many technology advances, it understates economic value that is created.
Am I right in remembering that credit card debt in America is not included in the event of personal bankruptcy? So if you go bankrupt the credit card company can still hound you for the money?
i have a question: praytell, how do we manage through this? suggestions?
At least we the people will have some of the straightest backs on earth from what the elites are giving us. So, in the end we will be receiving something for our dedication.
Like to use my yardstick to help determine state of the economy. It works this way. Get in your car and drive into a residential area checking what sits in the yards that are for sale.How many cars do you see? How many motorcycles. How many snowmobiles,etc. I think this is a great indicator of the economic climate. Another is the number of online auctions. I wonder how many auto loans are being foreclosed but I don't know how to find that info, how many houses, how many farms? The yardstick method is probably the clearest indicator of all for most of us because it showed us what is happening right now. I am seeing an increase in yard traffic every month. Wonder what that means. Ummm.