While Bill Bonner is travelling for the next few days, we present an excerpt from David Stockman’s new book, which you can find here. David was kind enough to allow us to run an excerpt, which we’ll publish in two parts. Part One is below. You can also find more of David’s work
The modern federal govt is too big to survive. Long ago, spending outran the taxability of the productive part of our US economy. The difference was made up by Fed vaporware, in the form of US dollar with "reserve" status across the globe. But now the math of it all has caught up. And just as the Soviet Union could not collapse until it did, so with the current federal complex.
This is the best, most intelligent discussion I've read in this column EVER. No politics, no snide comments, no ignoring obvious stupidity. Nice change.
I don't need to reiterate (but I will) that the path that Trump and team have started on requires that the Donald and Mr. Musk need to slash $5.4B a day, to hit that $2T mark by next year. So far, they've hit maybe $25B. In 30 days. It'll probably be closer to $8B a day, as the deficit looks to be closer to $3T than $2T.
Already behind schedule. They're still working on figuring out what to do with those 2.3M replies from last weekend.
This lady will be doing some exposing for Elon. Will get ugly. As I'm pretty sure, that it won't be only DEM senators and members of the senate and house that will be caught when she connects the dots.
USAID was a good start. You know the "how." Strangle the agencies that need it, rather than wait for congress to repeal the bills that created those agencies and departments. And like Robert Moses, the "master builder" of NYC a hundred years ago (not a nice guy, but got the job done), do it before they can tie you up in court. Copy and paste your methods, until you've found your 2 or 3 Trillion dollars.
My past experience working within Citizens Against Government Waste revealed one major problem with the reason these types of plans never succeed: The budget is on autopilot. Meaning, what shows up in the budget one year is automatically in the budget the following year, with a COLA increase! Even the real bat-shit crazy spending ideas of the most insane legislator that got put in one year.
How does spending like this get eliminated? Good question.
Even if it's for a one-time payment, it needs to be included in the text of the legislation that it can only be paid one time.
Or it has to be voted out in a subsequent year.
Which of these do you think is easier? (Answer: The first one.)
And it rarely happens, because it prevents Congress from creating a slush fund that can be used over and over again.
Here-Here. I grew up in the dc area. Spend every dime regardless to show need. Then ask for more next fiscal year. This is how your government functions people. Budget on auto-pilot indeed.
For sure. During my time in the military, the spending spree in the last two weeks of every September was incredible. Absolutely every last cent of allocated funding was to be spent. No commanding officer DARED to report anything but 100% combat ready, so any funds left unspent would be used as a reason to reduce funds. Hey, you’re fully combat ready and only spent 95%, so that’s your new amount. Can’t have that…so here come new printers, monitors, etc etc etc, even though the “old” ones were working just fine. Oh, the joys of a bureaucracy.
Good job, well put together. As a long subscriber I hope Bill, travels for a very long, long time. This review is good and to the point as opposed to Bill's redundant ranting.
Ralph, if Stockman wrote a 1000 word essay, 5 days a week for 25 years, some of his facts, thoughts and conclusions would be redundant as well. Consider that your subscription cost is for the investment advice from Dan and Tom and you get Bill’s column for free. I subscribe for the entertainment value of reading Bill’s thoughts and occasional nuggets of wisdom. If anyone is not getting their money’s worth from Bill, Dan or Tom, I can’t imagine why they would continue to buy the service. I can say that because if you drop out, it won’t cost me anything other than my enjoyment of reading your complaints.
I sure hope Trump's policys accomplish the debt reduction required; however, while waiting for the debt reduction to happen, I'm holding multiple forms of gold and silver for protection. When you're old, you don't have time to wait for the dow/gold ratio of 5 to occur.
What ever Doge skims off the top of government waste, it won’t matter as long as administrations and congress keep spending a third more than they take in. Tax relief is is great only if spending is decreased.
The colorful anecdotal items are things even the "man on the street" can appreciate. Unfortunately the "man on the street" may not even know what GDP means. It is about marketing.
The fed. govt. jobs lost would pale in comparison to the private sector job losses. Americans don't understand that the majority of federal spending provides private sector jobs. Defense spending is mostly paying contracted employees in the private sector who work on weapons systems and troop support. And then there is Medicare and Medicaid spending that employs doctors, nurses, medical techs, hospital and health clinic administrative personnel, etc. So 10M to 20M Americans could be thrown out of work in a very short time. This would throw a monkey wrench into the overall economy causing even more termination of jobs in the private sector. A job-loss contagion.
To be brutally honest: If the job cuts were in the third-world cities, maybe there would not be a backlash. But most of the jobs lost would be in the first-world suburbs where elections are determined for the most part. And there would be massive marches on DC by suburbanites.
Now would this be a good thing for the U.S. economy? Of course! But Republicans in the WH and Congress would be annihilated in upcoming elections. It's the TRANSITION PERIOD of a few years that is scary---from a semi-depression to a healthy economy. With the GOP wiped out, you could have an AOC as POTUS!!! God help us all!
So I think this excerpt of David Stockman's book was getting at the massive job losses that would actually occur if $2T/year were to be cut. There's much a do about nothing here with DOGE making a lot of small cuts because Pres. Trump would never allow the cuts necessary to reach $2T/year.
Here's a thought. The article mentioned that $5 trillion of Trump's tax cuts will soon expire. So don't extend them. Duh. We don't have to cut $2 trillion from the budget and then we can use the other $3 trillion to start paying down the debt.
I do not doubt for one minute there is a huge amount of "fat" in the bloated government agencies but being as "efficient" as suggested puts a hell of a lot of people out of work and doing what? Claiming benefits I guess which would be lower than professional salaries/benefits etc but socially potentially dangerous. Perhaps many of these roles keep people employed and they pay tax and spend like all other employed people. Maybe there is a way to cut by not replacing retirees or leavers and improving efficiencies.
The modern federal govt is too big to survive. Long ago, spending outran the taxability of the productive part of our US economy. The difference was made up by Fed vaporware, in the form of US dollar with "reserve" status across the globe. But now the math of it all has caught up. And just as the Soviet Union could not collapse until it did, so with the current federal complex.
This is the best, most intelligent discussion I've read in this column EVER. No politics, no snide comments, no ignoring obvious stupidity. Nice change.
I don't need to reiterate (but I will) that the path that Trump and team have started on requires that the Donald and Mr. Musk need to slash $5.4B a day, to hit that $2T mark by next year. So far, they've hit maybe $25B. In 30 days. It'll probably be closer to $8B a day, as the deficit looks to be closer to $3T than $2T.
Already behind schedule. They're still working on figuring out what to do with those 2.3M replies from last weekend.
This lady will be doing some exposing for Elon. Will get ugly. As I'm pretty sure, that it won't be only DEM senators and members of the senate and house that will be caught when she connects the dots.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895118335852830788
USAID was a good start. You know the "how." Strangle the agencies that need it, rather than wait for congress to repeal the bills that created those agencies and departments. And like Robert Moses, the "master builder" of NYC a hundred years ago (not a nice guy, but got the job done), do it before they can tie you up in court. Copy and paste your methods, until you've found your 2 or 3 Trillion dollars.
Now go do what you said you were going to do.
https://lucaskandia.substack.com/p/cant-see-the-forest-for-all-the-incoming
Thanks a lot for that post. We need to continue to spread it.
My past experience working within Citizens Against Government Waste revealed one major problem with the reason these types of plans never succeed: The budget is on autopilot. Meaning, what shows up in the budget one year is automatically in the budget the following year, with a COLA increase! Even the real bat-shit crazy spending ideas of the most insane legislator that got put in one year.
How does spending like this get eliminated? Good question.
Even if it's for a one-time payment, it needs to be included in the text of the legislation that it can only be paid one time.
Or it has to be voted out in a subsequent year.
Which of these do you think is easier? (Answer: The first one.)
And it rarely happens, because it prevents Congress from creating a slush fund that can be used over and over again.
Here-Here. I grew up in the dc area. Spend every dime regardless to show need. Then ask for more next fiscal year. This is how your government functions people. Budget on auto-pilot indeed.
For sure. During my time in the military, the spending spree in the last two weeks of every September was incredible. Absolutely every last cent of allocated funding was to be spent. No commanding officer DARED to report anything but 100% combat ready, so any funds left unspent would be used as a reason to reduce funds. Hey, you’re fully combat ready and only spent 95%, so that’s your new amount. Can’t have that…so here come new printers, monitors, etc etc etc, even though the “old” ones were working just fine. Oh, the joys of a bureaucracy.
Good job, well put together. As a long subscriber I hope Bill, travels for a very long, long time. This review is good and to the point as opposed to Bill's redundant ranting.
RALPH W.
Ralph, if Stockman wrote a 1000 word essay, 5 days a week for 25 years, some of his facts, thoughts and conclusions would be redundant as well. Consider that your subscription cost is for the investment advice from Dan and Tom and you get Bill’s column for free. I subscribe for the entertainment value of reading Bill’s thoughts and occasional nuggets of wisdom. If anyone is not getting their money’s worth from Bill, Dan or Tom, I can’t imagine why they would continue to buy the service. I can say that because if you drop out, it won’t cost me anything other than my enjoyment of reading your complaints.
Hey Jim😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Why don't you just end the misery and hit delete each day if it is Bill writing? Quit mentally abusing yourself.
I sure hope Trump's policys accomplish the debt reduction required; however, while waiting for the debt reduction to happen, I'm holding multiple forms of gold and silver for protection. When you're old, you don't have time to wait for the dow/gold ratio of 5 to occur.
What ever Doge skims off the top of government waste, it won’t matter as long as administrations and congress keep spending a third more than they take in. Tax relief is is great only if spending is decreased.
The colorful anecdotal items are things even the "man on the street" can appreciate. Unfortunately the "man on the street" may not even know what GDP means. It is about marketing.
Fair enough. I'll craft an article, just for you. I've been pondering it for a while. But your post has my bloodhound senses going.
Good grief. Stockman's book has a total of ten reviews on Amazon. Really kicking up a storm.
Hey Bob. Those numbers you just quoted speak to how uneducated the American public is. Totally distracted.
The problems with the solutions. That is the way I would have Bill write. But I too am a lowly subscriber. LOL.
The fed. govt. jobs lost would pale in comparison to the private sector job losses. Americans don't understand that the majority of federal spending provides private sector jobs. Defense spending is mostly paying contracted employees in the private sector who work on weapons systems and troop support. And then there is Medicare and Medicaid spending that employs doctors, nurses, medical techs, hospital and health clinic administrative personnel, etc. So 10M to 20M Americans could be thrown out of work in a very short time. This would throw a monkey wrench into the overall economy causing even more termination of jobs in the private sector. A job-loss contagion.
To be brutally honest: If the job cuts were in the third-world cities, maybe there would not be a backlash. But most of the jobs lost would be in the first-world suburbs where elections are determined for the most part. And there would be massive marches on DC by suburbanites.
Now would this be a good thing for the U.S. economy? Of course! But Republicans in the WH and Congress would be annihilated in upcoming elections. It's the TRANSITION PERIOD of a few years that is scary---from a semi-depression to a healthy economy. With the GOP wiped out, you could have an AOC as POTUS!!! God help us all!
So I think this excerpt of David Stockman's book was getting at the massive job losses that would actually occur if $2T/year were to be cut. There's much a do about nothing here with DOGE making a lot of small cuts because Pres. Trump would never allow the cuts necessary to reach $2T/year.
Inflate or die. Looks like dyeing will be the eventual winner.
Here's a thought. The article mentioned that $5 trillion of Trump's tax cuts will soon expire. So don't extend them. Duh. We don't have to cut $2 trillion from the budget and then we can use the other $3 trillion to start paying down the debt.
I do not doubt for one minute there is a huge amount of "fat" in the bloated government agencies but being as "efficient" as suggested puts a hell of a lot of people out of work and doing what? Claiming benefits I guess which would be lower than professional salaries/benefits etc but socially potentially dangerous. Perhaps many of these roles keep people employed and they pay tax and spend like all other employed people. Maybe there is a way to cut by not replacing retirees or leavers and improving efficiencies.
Just found this in my archive....
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1mpwSz53IMU
Go to 38.30 minutes and make up your mind;-)