Hail Caesar

The Big Man doesn’t believe in rules at all. Not the liberal rules. Not in the conservative rules either. He is the law. He is the State. His will is writ.

Statue of Julius Caesar in front of a church in Rome, Italy. Source: Getty Images

Monday, July 28^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France

‘Men in general are quick to believe that which they wish to be true.’

—Julius Caesar

Another trade deal! Fortune:

Dow futures rise on US-EU trade pact as investors brace for fast and furious week of earnings, China talks, Fed, GDP, jobs report, tariff deadline.

The headlines describe the new deal with the EU as another ‘win’ for Trump. While it may be a ‘lose’ for the American people, it is nevertheless a big part of Trump’s appeal. He’s a real leader. Where he goes, there also will the MAGA faithful go. And when he wins, even when the victory is an underhanded 15% federal sales tax, a substantial number of voters think they win too.

“Trump” must be one of the most repeated proper nouns in world history. But media coverage is shallow.

The mainstream press is either pro-Trump or anti-Trump. Rarely does it bother to wonder why it is either. .

Trump holds the most powerful position in the world. And yet, he is no Eisenhower. He’s no economist. No statesman. No historian. No philosopher. Today, we wonder what he is.

Oswald Spengler’s prediction — made in the 1930s — was that democratic rule-based governments would peak out around the year 2000 and then give way to ‘Caesarism.’

Julius Caesar took power in Rome...essentially sidelining the more consensual, more dispersed power of the Senate. He is blamed for turning Rome from a republic into an empire...with a strongman at the top of it. Few people realized what it meant at the time. Even after Augustus proclaimed himself emperor in 27 BC the Senate still met. The ‘rules’ were still there — ‘on the books.’ And yet, the character of Rome itself had changed in a fundamental way.

The Donald did not cross the East River with his army and march on Washington. And the US was a kind of crypto-empire long before he got to the White House. Nevertheless, he is the first ‘big man’ US president who might be seen as ‘Caesarish.’

And he is not alone.

All around the world, social democrats are giving way to ‘populists.’ Or strongmen. The New York Times:

Japan’s Long-Dominant Party Suffers Election Defeat as Voters Swing Right

The loss on Sunday left the Liberal Democrats a minority party in both houses of Parliament, while two new nationalist parties surged.

But a ‘swing to the right’ is not what we’re talking about. Today’s caesars are what we might call ‘non-binary.’ Like college students with blue hair and tattoos, they swing both ways. And in the most important matter, they swing to the left...towards more power for themselves and the government.

In the deal negotiated last week with Japan, the Japanese supposedly agreed to a 15% tariff on goods shipped to the US.

Japan also was said to agree to invest $550 billion into the US...with the feds having a say as to who gets the money. But what kind of government wants to tell citizens how much they have to pay for Japanese imports...and how Japan should invest its money in the US? Liberal? Conservative? Or something else?

‘Liberals’ want more laws...more rules to force people to do what they want. Recycle your trash. Drive an EV. Pay a higher minimum wage. The rules can cover just about anything and everything.

Conservatives believe in rules too. They just want the important ones – thou shalt not steal…thou shalt not kill, etc. They also want rules – such as the US Constitution – that make it hard for the feds to impose additional rules. “Congress shall make no law…etc.”

The Big Man, on the other hand, doesn’t believe in rules at all. Not the liberal rules. Not in the conservative rules either. He is the law. He is the State. His will is writ.

The Strongman focuses on ends, not means. He promises results — getting rid of immigrants...imposing tariffs…and so forth. And if the rules get in the way, the Strongman ignores them, or removes the judges. CBS:

3 immigration judges speak out about their firings: "Attack on the rule of law"

George Pappas, Jennifer Peyton and Carla Espinoza were all federal immigration judges fired this month by email. The three ruled on thousands of immigration cases in Chicago and Boston.

Trump speaks to the soul of an angry and disappointed people. His triumphs are their triumphs. He is their champion, come what may.

When Trump says he has ‘won’ a great victory in his negotiations with Japan, for example, the glow of success shines on them, however feebly and briefly, like the blue light of a wrecked police car.

Regards,

Bill Bonner