The thirty-two war game scenarios conducted by CSIS produced a different outcome of horrendous death and destruction. But each of them feature the US loosing large numbers of ships and planes to swarms of missiles and torpedoes. These losses will literally knock the US off the world stage
Missing, however, is the equally horrendous economic consequences. War between China and the US will immediately result in China losing its best customer and largest debtor and the US losing its primary source of a vast array of Chinese-made goods from medicines to chips to I Phones to toys.
It would be illustrative for a think tank to forecast the impact a war with China will have on the American people whose economic welfare is attributable to using Chinese medicines, parts, goods and components to make and sell items nationally and worldwide
Small but telling case in point: most of the medicines in the infirmaries aboard US ships and in US military bases not just in Asia but throughout the world come from China
I appreciate the comments so far, but I find myself thinking of a recent news article. I believe the basic point was that many students who are recent or soon to be graduates find the idea of a 40 hour a week job very stressful. Imagine those same folks fighting a war. We are still desperate for reason to invade politics at all levels. Oh to dream. ////........JJ
A couple of things. Fighting a war in some one else’s back yard 10,000 miles away from home your supply lines are highly vulnerable to intercept. Desert storm with no opposition took 6 months to mobilize. Secondly all developed countries are so vulnerable to attack on basic infrastructure. Electricity, natural gas, food distribution centres, municipal water, pipeline, hydroelectric dams etc are all in the sights of cyber experts on all sides. Not a cannon fired. Paralyze the enemy domestically. The US in particular with all their guns would be so busy looting and fighting over very scarce resources society would disintegrate.
Before going to war for an ideology such as Bush's "wars on terror and drugs" one needs to weigh up the consequences which are inevitably terrible for civilians and troops.
What have we learnt from our military engagements in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria? I would venture to say, very little other than the absolute futility of it all. Some may argue that the military industrial complex is the only winner.
The only time to go to war is when one's homeland is threatened. The US faces no threat of invasion. The Chinese will ultimately reach a compromise solution without enormous loss of life, limb and material. The situation for the Taiwanese is only made worse through the provision of false hope through the US and its allies promise to protect them from a PRC invasion.
The PRC will have its hands full trying to occupy and subject a hostile Taiwanese population.
So with all these brainiacs not one who would be smart/sensible enough to find a way to avoid all this bloodshed and terror? Disgusting.On par with the idiot(s) who came up with the nuclear bomb.
I really do not think there are too many clear thinkers in the White House nor the Congress. Beside, none of them have a basic understanding how the mainland Chinese view Taiwan as an inseparable land of the motherland. The Singapore diplomate Professor Kishore Mahbabani had warned many times about Biden's administration not to underestimate China's determination. Do Not Step on the Redlines. I will agree with the authors, China has much stronger manufacturing and complete chain of factoriues and ship building capabilities than the US and can crank out more advanced weaponry , also the supersonic missiles that China has and fighting a war at China territory is a no win situation.
Joel great interview with Byron .. the scenarios he postulates are all unlikely as Byron is well aware that in this modern era of technology we are way past old style conventional warfare ie where opponents are visible to each other .. on the chemical side which is dramatically advancing since the supposed epidemic. I doubt that another war like Ukraine is likely as there will be no winner (in Ukraine for instance) as the destruction of all life support systems will take generations to rebuild and many of them are already growing their 'roots' elsewhere .. the nuclear option will only be triggered when the emotional desperation of defeat by either side is imminent and then it'll be a first big strike at the strategic targets to reduce counterattack .. perhaps having played these games for to many years some of us realize that there will be no winners .. only survivors and I'm not sure that many of our species will want to survive in what's left of our planet and it's subsequent environmental repercussions .. let's hope we don't ever get there as there really is no way back! Sad that we even have to think or postulate these scenarios but then our species was never the brightest most intelligent anyway .. they just 'thought' so and time will prove who's right!
One thing I find missing in all the hullabaloo about conflict with China over Taiwan is any thought of trying to talk to China about possible avenues of avoiding military conflict. Or, has that already failed? Certainly if China is so implacable on Taiwan that they refuse to even talk about the subject, then the US has only two choices, either get out of east Asia (not going to happen) or prepare for war. If China's goal is to dominate east Asia the way the US has dominated the Western Hemisphere, discussing de-escalation is not likely to be effective. I also find it interesting that India, Indonesia and Australia and their perspectives in this drama seem to be ignored almost completely.
I’d be interested in knowing if the CSIS models included Russia jumping in to support their strong allies the Chinese? I really think that is what we should be planning for
I don’t believe the Chinese Can project their power beyond 1000 miles they need a lot of inputs for the system to function oil ,gas, food, fertilizer 85% everything has to be imported A couple of destroyers can shut down all input from half the world away and in six months they would be starving. Not to mention the demographics problem they don’t have any young people to fight .Check out Peter Z
Hurrah for Brian!!! as a VET of VietNam (infantry) and Afghanistan (senior MD), I experienced first hand the regular change of one unsuccessful strategy for the next and the results,,, Nguyen Giap: "you won all the battles and we won the war...!" and then; the Taliban, "you have the watches and we have the time..." insightful logic from the guys who won, no matter that we could put a cruise missle up their collective asses from thousands of miles away. Mistakes and arrogance lost our day... Bill in Nürnberg
What about China coming to Russia's aid in Ukraine and Russia returning the favour to China over Taiwan. This should be a no-brainer for the strategists.
Love those pisco sours... and ceviche. That was some good stuff to digest. In my opinion, we have learned nothing spending the trillions and destroying a different history. It is a legacy of destruction and stupidity. You have to factor into the war games the hubris of these people. We can’t win.
The thirty-two war game scenarios conducted by CSIS produced a different outcome of horrendous death and destruction. But each of them feature the US loosing large numbers of ships and planes to swarms of missiles and torpedoes. These losses will literally knock the US off the world stage
Missing, however, is the equally horrendous economic consequences. War between China and the US will immediately result in China losing its best customer and largest debtor and the US losing its primary source of a vast array of Chinese-made goods from medicines to chips to I Phones to toys.
It would be illustrative for a think tank to forecast the impact a war with China will have on the American people whose economic welfare is attributable to using Chinese medicines, parts, goods and components to make and sell items nationally and worldwide
Small but telling case in point: most of the medicines in the infirmaries aboard US ships and in US military bases not just in Asia but throughout the world come from China
I appreciate the comments so far, but I find myself thinking of a recent news article. I believe the basic point was that many students who are recent or soon to be graduates find the idea of a 40 hour a week job very stressful. Imagine those same folks fighting a war. We are still desperate for reason to invade politics at all levels. Oh to dream. ////........JJ
Thanks guys. Thought provoking.
P.S. I love LeMar!
A couple of things. Fighting a war in some one else’s back yard 10,000 miles away from home your supply lines are highly vulnerable to intercept. Desert storm with no opposition took 6 months to mobilize. Secondly all developed countries are so vulnerable to attack on basic infrastructure. Electricity, natural gas, food distribution centres, municipal water, pipeline, hydroelectric dams etc are all in the sights of cyber experts on all sides. Not a cannon fired. Paralyze the enemy domestically. The US in particular with all their guns would be so busy looting and fighting over very scarce resources society would disintegrate.
Before going to war for an ideology such as Bush's "wars on terror and drugs" one needs to weigh up the consequences which are inevitably terrible for civilians and troops.
What have we learnt from our military engagements in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria? I would venture to say, very little other than the absolute futility of it all. Some may argue that the military industrial complex is the only winner.
The only time to go to war is when one's homeland is threatened. The US faces no threat of invasion. The Chinese will ultimately reach a compromise solution without enormous loss of life, limb and material. The situation for the Taiwanese is only made worse through the provision of false hope through the US and its allies promise to protect them from a PRC invasion.
The PRC will have its hands full trying to occupy and subject a hostile Taiwanese population.
Thanks Joel and Byron......
So with all these brainiacs not one who would be smart/sensible enough to find a way to avoid all this bloodshed and terror? Disgusting.On par with the idiot(s) who came up with the nuclear bomb.
I really do not think there are too many clear thinkers in the White House nor the Congress. Beside, none of them have a basic understanding how the mainland Chinese view Taiwan as an inseparable land of the motherland. The Singapore diplomate Professor Kishore Mahbabani had warned many times about Biden's administration not to underestimate China's determination. Do Not Step on the Redlines. I will agree with the authors, China has much stronger manufacturing and complete chain of factoriues and ship building capabilities than the US and can crank out more advanced weaponry , also the supersonic missiles that China has and fighting a war at China territory is a no win situation.
Joel great interview with Byron .. the scenarios he postulates are all unlikely as Byron is well aware that in this modern era of technology we are way past old style conventional warfare ie where opponents are visible to each other .. on the chemical side which is dramatically advancing since the supposed epidemic. I doubt that another war like Ukraine is likely as there will be no winner (in Ukraine for instance) as the destruction of all life support systems will take generations to rebuild and many of them are already growing their 'roots' elsewhere .. the nuclear option will only be triggered when the emotional desperation of defeat by either side is imminent and then it'll be a first big strike at the strategic targets to reduce counterattack .. perhaps having played these games for to many years some of us realize that there will be no winners .. only survivors and I'm not sure that many of our species will want to survive in what's left of our planet and it's subsequent environmental repercussions .. let's hope we don't ever get there as there really is no way back! Sad that we even have to think or postulate these scenarios but then our species was never the brightest most intelligent anyway .. they just 'thought' so and time will prove who's right!
One thing I find missing in all the hullabaloo about conflict with China over Taiwan is any thought of trying to talk to China about possible avenues of avoiding military conflict. Or, has that already failed? Certainly if China is so implacable on Taiwan that they refuse to even talk about the subject, then the US has only two choices, either get out of east Asia (not going to happen) or prepare for war. If China's goal is to dominate east Asia the way the US has dominated the Western Hemisphere, discussing de-escalation is not likely to be effective. I also find it interesting that India, Indonesia and Australia and their perspectives in this drama seem to be ignored almost completely.
I’d be interested in knowing if the CSIS models included Russia jumping in to support their strong allies the Chinese? I really think that is what we should be planning for
I don’t believe the Chinese Can project their power beyond 1000 miles they need a lot of inputs for the system to function oil ,gas, food, fertilizer 85% everything has to be imported A couple of destroyers can shut down all input from half the world away and in six months they would be starving. Not to mention the demographics problem they don’t have any young people to fight .Check out Peter Z
Very well written and informative.
Hurrah for Brian!!! as a VET of VietNam (infantry) and Afghanistan (senior MD), I experienced first hand the regular change of one unsuccessful strategy for the next and the results,,, Nguyen Giap: "you won all the battles and we won the war...!" and then; the Taliban, "you have the watches and we have the time..." insightful logic from the guys who won, no matter that we could put a cruise missle up their collective asses from thousands of miles away. Mistakes and arrogance lost our day... Bill in Nürnberg
What about China coming to Russia's aid in Ukraine and Russia returning the favour to China over Taiwan. This should be a no-brainer for the strategists.
Preemptive?
Love those pisco sours... and ceviche. That was some good stuff to digest. In my opinion, we have learned nothing spending the trillions and destroying a different history. It is a legacy of destruction and stupidity. You have to factor into the war games the hubris of these people. We can’t win.