Foreign Entanglements

The Biggest Loss will come like a land mine disguised as a child’s toy. Wrapped in such bright colors, it will be irresistible to the governing elites -- a package of high inflation along with war.

George Washington, Ben Franklin, and Thomas Jefferson at the Constitutional Convention in 1787. Source: Getty Images

Monday, November 25th, 2024

Bill Bonner, writing from Baltimore

On Friday, US debt hit a new record. Fox News: US national debt hits a new record: $36 trillion.

There are was also this little news item last week.  Reuters: Putin says Ukraine war is going global.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine war was escalating towards a global conflict after the United States and Britain allowed Ukraine to hit Russia with their weapons, and warned the West that Moscow could strike back. 

Ukraine struck Russia with six U.S.-made ATACMS on Nov. 19 and with British Storm Shadow missiles and U.S.-made HIMARS on Nov. 21, Putin said. 

"From that moment, as we have repeatedly underscored, a regional conflict in Ukraine previously provoked by the West has acquired elements of a global character," Putin said in an address to the nation carried by state television after 8 pm Moscow time (1700 GM)

What kind of future do these things portend?  Again, we project ourselves ten years ahead…into a future with $60 trillion in debt…50% inflation…and near constant war. 

We’re not predicting anything, just wondering about how the Biggest Loss might come about. 

The Biggest Loss, we believe, will come like a land mine disguised as a child’s toy. Wrapped in such bright colors, it will be irresistible….at least to the governing elites -- a package of high inflation along with war and depression. 

Inflation will allow the Establishment to continue spending money it doesn’t have.  War will help keep ‘the People’ in line behind the government.  And depression will be the result (among other things).  Herewith, we suggest how future historians might explain it.  

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In 2024…all over the world…nations, especially those of the West, continued to spend far more than they received in revenues…almost guaranteeing inflation.  No law tells elites they need to do this.  But deficits are much more attractive than cutting spending and reducing their own power. 

Their financial model – taking from ‘the People’ in order to pay off special pleaders, the insiders, and the elite -- seems to have run its course.  It worked when debt was low and population growth was high.  But now, almost all of the leading players are approaching a crisis.  ‘The People’ can’t be squeezed much harder.  And with record high debt and rising interest payments, along with fewer working age people to pay for pension and medical programs, there is little ‘loot’ left to be divvied up. 

‘War talk’ is increasing. Like threatening a divorce, war talk leads to war acts.  It becomes hard to stop. And the major players are ‘gunning up.’   As the hammers increase, so does the hunt for nails. 

These things don’t really explain; they only describe.  

At a deeper level, killing other people is what humans have always done.  Not all the time.  But episodically.  It’s in their blood.  In their genes.  In their stars. 

The real question future historians will have to grapple with is: Why now?    

Why can’t the most sophisticated, supposedly most civilized democracies in the world match income with expenses?  And why don’t they settle their differences peacefully?   

Even the US, the richest of all major nations, spends nearly a half again more than it raises in taxes.  And like every empire before it, it garrisons much of the planet with its troops and its weapons.  No sparrow can fall anywhere on Earth, without expecting a response from the Pentagon, CIA, or other US government agencies.   

Over centuries of trial and (mostly) error, the world’s nations developed rules, protocols and customs that were supposed to prevent disasters – both military and budgetary.  Budgets were meant to be balanced.  Inevitably, ‘the People’ pay the bills.  So, the US constitution puts the ‘power of the purse’ in the hands of the people’s representatives in Congress.  So too, by 1787, the dangers of paper money were so well known, that the founders insisted that states should ‘not make anything but gold or silver’ legal tender.   

They had had more than enough of war too.  As early as the Roman Empire it was considered a breach of etiquette to launch an unprovoked attack.  Rome, though, quickly mastered the art the ‘false flag’ provocation…and was often ‘invited to intervene’ by one group or another. 

In the US, the founders cautioned subsequent generations to ‘avoid foreign entanglements,’ or to not ‘go forth in search of monsters to slay.’  They gave the power to declare war to Congress so as to limit the military adventures a Chief Executive might get up to.  Governments also developed their diplomatic skills.  They were meant to help avoid war by negotiating rather than fighting. 

But then…when all of these safeguards failed – 1914 – 1945 -- they got together and created institutions designed to settle differences peacefully. The UN, the International Court of Justice. The International Criminal Court – all were supposed to extend the ‘rule of law’ not just within a nation…but between nations. 

But the old lusts and urges never disappear completely.  The US president, now possibly senile, tempts Russia to launch its nuclear warheads.  Congress shirks, both its responsibility to protect the nation’s finances and to avoid war.  And the institutions that the US itself set up to help maintain the peace are derided and ignored. 

The International Court of Justice, which dared to try to enforce the law, is called a “Kangaroo court’ by one senator.  And the feds warn that anyone who pays attention to the rule of law, as announced by its foremost institutions, will be sanctioned!   

Instead of trying to avoid violence, the US seems to be trying to keep it going.  Its agents and shills blocked Ukraine from making peace with Russia in 2022.  And it has used its veto 49 times against a UN cease fire proposal for the Near East. 

Of course, some of the reasons for bellicose behavior are obvious.  Firepower is a major US industry.  There’s money in war.  Best yet, the money is largely untraceable.   

NewsNation: 

The Pentagon on Friday failed its seventh audit in a row, with the nation’s largest government agency still unable to fully account for its more than $824 budget, though officials stress they are making good progress toward a clean audit in 2028. The Department of Defense technically earned a disclaimer of opinion, meaning it failed to provide sufficient information to auditors to form an accurate opinion. 

But there’s always more to the story, isn’t there?  Maybe democracy really is in danger.  Maybe the US – by extending the Monroe doctrine to the entire world – really is making us safer?  And surely we’re not going to sweat the money when our very survival is at stake, right?  

Someone needs to stand up to evil; if not us…if not now…who, and when? 

More to come. 

Bill Bonner