Duck and Weave
We’re not changing anything. We have 65% of our allocation in gold, silver, platinum, oil, gas, uranium, iron ore and tankers. And the other 35% in cash.
Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
Chiswick, West London
By Tom Dyson, Investment Director
Thank you for all your kind messages about my father. We especially appreciate your ideas and suggestions for treating Parkinson’s disease, which some of you sent us. We’re looking into everything.
It was incredibly hard saying goodbye to him last week, as frail, gaunt and shaky as he is, watching him get into a taxi and head to Heathrow Airport by himself, for a transatlantic flight. Thankfully, he got home to NY safely and quickly.
For Kate and I, life is coming at us fast. Kate just lost her father in Florida. My father can’t really get around by himself anymore. And our children are growing up fast…and will soon want more independence…
In short, after seven years, we think the time is coming for us to bring our family home to the USA. We’ll see.
There was a partial (90%) eclipse this evening, visible from our back garden in London. The kids figured out that we could view it by looking through six pairs of sunglasses. We got a perfect view! Here’s Penny taking it in…
Greetings from Chiswick, West London…
Not much to report from our investment strategy. We’re not changing anything. We have 65% of our allocation in gold, silver, platinum, oil, gas, uranium, iron ore and tankers.
And the other 35% in cash.
We have no exposure to the major stock market indices and a zero allocation to bonds.
We’re keeping the dial set at “Maximum Safety” and bracing for volatility as the big paper money default inches closer.
It’s the most defensive position I can come up with.
When the crisis arrives, hopefully we’ll be able to duck and weave appropriately…
The latest government inflation reading came out today, showing the dollar had lost 3.4% of its purchasing power over the last 12 months. As always it prompted discussion of the Fed’s interest rate policy and the possibility of raising rates soon. Don’t pay any attention. The Fed only has one policy option: debase the currency but try to maintain plausible deniability for as long as possible. They won’t raise interest rates.
While the US made a show this week of auditing the gold in Fort Knox, we learned the Chinese retail investors keep buying gold. In the West, more open discussion of what a sovereign debt crisis might look like...and whether we’re already in one. In China, methodical buying of gold, including fourteen straight days of inflows to gold ETFs.
We’d rather own the real stuff. And I hope I was clear in these letters that the sell-off this summer in gold and silver was an excellent buying opportunity. It’s worth noting Chinese investors appear to be betting the same way… that gold prices are resuming the bull market and may run much higher in the four and half months left of the year (relative to the dollar, the euro, and the yen).
QUESTION: With the FED supposedly “done” with rate hikes, is it time to start securing more long term notes with our cash and lock in that 5.5% range?
MY RESPONSE: This chart shows the yield curves of the big governments. US paper (blue line) offers the second highest bond yields, after UK paper. And although the yield curve has a positive slope at the short end, it’s pretty flat beyond the 2-year tenor. In my opinion, the small bump in yield between a 2-year note (4.2%) and a 10-year note (4.69%) and a 30-year bond (5.26%) isn’t worth the extra risk we’d take by holding long term paper. So I still think 2-year notes offer the best value for yield.
We’ve been thinking about the next steps for our eldest son, Dusty. He’s 18 and he’s had an awesome, stress-free childhood. So it’s time for us to start thinking about how he might earn a living for himself in the future…and what skills and training he might need.
One idea we’re seriously beginning to explore is working in the energy industry — oil, gas and nuclear power, which syncs nicely with our Bonner Private Research Official List.
There’s such an acute shortage of skilled workers in energy, they’re practically begging (and bribing) young people to enter the industry. And it’s only projected to get worse, as the average age of workers is near 50 and they’re retiring faster than the industry can hire new people.
There are hundreds of different jobs available in the energy industry…welder, lineman, pipefitter, substation operator and many more. A GED is the only academic qualification you need to apply for apprenticeships, which Dusty is going to get started on next.
I’m just thinking out loud here, but an apprenticeship would be a great next step for him as an alternative to college. I think he likes the idea, too. We’ll see.
