Doomsday Prospectus

Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Ardmore, Ireland

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‘Oh, and by the way...it could be the end of all life as we know it.’

‘But don’t bother coming after us. We warned you.’

That was the gist of perhaps the strangest disclosure ever issued by a company preparing an IPO. Normally, disclosures are written by lawyers who cover every possibility but with the pizzazz of instructions on how to use your new vacuum cleaner.

But in this case, the warnings are so apocalyptic...we can scarcely wait to see what happens.

The company is Anthropic. Its stock-in-trade is AI. And it could kill us all. The Independent:

In a long list of potential dangers for the company, it warns that its systems could “pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, particularly if such systems were misused, replicated, weaponised, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy”.

The IPO documents point to a whole range of ways that Anthropic’s systems could pose a threat. They include models that have already been shown to be able to help people “develop chemical, biological, or other dangerous weapons”, and the use of its models in “high-risk or sensitive contexts, such as healthcare, scientific and biomedical research, drug discovery and development, legal, finance, government, or other critical decision-making environments.”

In addition to possibly causing the extinction of the human race, Anthropic may wipe out your money. Daily Mail:

The company behind the chatbot Claude reported a net loss of $80m.7 billion in the first half of 2026. That compares to a loss of $13 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Despite the losses, Anthropic, valued earlier this year at $965 billion by private investors, is reportedly set to see that value rise to $1.5 trillion or possibly $2 trillion, although its final valuation has not been established.

This is not an investment offer...it is a Doomsday Prospectus. A single company worth more than $1 trillion? A company that has, as of yet, not earned a dime? The whole idea is absurd. But whatever else can be said about it, it’s one for the record books — one of the many strange things that are happening in the money world.

Most peculiar is the money itself. As far as we know, no paper money has held up so well as the dollar. It’s lost 96% of its value since the Federal Reserve was set up to protect it. But it is still in use. And perhaps no other currency has so thoroughly distorted and disjointed an entire world economy.

In order to be worth so much, Anthropic would have to look forward to annual earnings of $50 to $100 billion per year — almost forever. But forever is a very long time for anyone. For a tech investor it’s about three months.

And how is Anthropic going to earn so much when a better product can be had for free? Already in a Front End Code Arena (whatever that is!) China’s Open Source Kimi-K3 beat Claude Fable 5...and every other US for-profit contender. That is probably why Anthropic is rushing an IPO. It is like a grocery store that marks down its inventory on Saturday; by Monday, the bread will be stale and the bananas will be rotten.

And something else for the record book, Anthropic could lose as much as $200 billion this year...marking it as the biggest money loser of all time. By comparison, Tesla’s losses are peanuts. Since its founding in 2003, it lost only $7 billion until it reached profitability in 2020.

There is so much cash, credit and claptrap in the asset markets. Like a giant sea surge — companies like Anthropic, Tesla, and others are lifted up far beyond what they are worth. Anthropic may come to rest on an Everest, with a value of $2 trillion, say some speculators.

Remember our dictum: The more you inflate prices, the less things are really worth.

We brought up the subject yesterday. You may say that these prices are ‘inflated’ by the feds’ funny money. But what does that mean?

The output of Anthropic can in no way be described as ‘worth’ the prospective stock value. Its output is negative, by the aforementioned $80 billion in the first six months of this year. Speculators may guess that it will turn positive sometime in the future, but where will that money come from? From the millions of people whose jobs have been lost to AI robots? Will Claude make the accountants, lawyers, radiologists, and architects jobless...and then bill them for the benefits of AI?

Unless the industry can add to consumer incomes — which seems unlikely — its current market valuations are just more fakery caused by the funny money fever; don’t try to take it to the bank.

Worth noting is that while trillions flush down the AI dream-hole, investment in residential construction has dropped. Zillow:

Over the 12 months ending July 2026, more than 1.42 million residential building permits were issued nationwide, down 1.7% from the same period a year earlier. Compared with the pre-pandemic trajectory from 2016 through 2020, permitting is running 19.4% below where it would have been if that trend had held.

But building data centers has boomed. At present prices and mortgage rates, approximately 88 million families are said to have been ‘priced out’ of the housing market. But at least the data will have a nice place to live. Air-conditioned. Off-street parking. And no noisy neighbors.

The family of four can move in with the grandparents. And if Anthropic wipes them out…along with their town…and their country, who could complain? It was in the prospectus!

More to come...

Regards,

Bill Bonner