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Cartero Atómico's avatar

Betting on the US winning a war is a lot like betting on the New York Jets winning a game. The odds are against you. We lost the War on Drugs, the War on Poverty, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc. Reagan's quote "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help." apply no matter which team is in power.

Paul Murray's avatar

FACT: It's structural from here on in. Other than putting a figurehead in to take the rap and declare an outright default, and honestly/candidly, I truly did think that's why Biden was installed when he was, but they blew that chance, because there was still some money to wring out of the figurative dishrag, this is going to continue until the cataclysm is vistited upon us. Some bailout, right? Best always. PM

An Ol' LSO's avatar

You are spot-on, Paul. I think the idea was to put Harris in to take the "rap", but that didn't work out. The debt trap has sprung and there is no way out. Of course, the Feds are going to take the "print-print-print" route and the US$ will continue to sink into infamy. Yes - US$ will still slosh around for quite a long time - just too many countries holding too many US$ and they have no alternative. However, many other countries have gold and been stacking gold. That is where the "Golden Yuan" (otherwise known as the "Unit") will provide an alternate non-US$, non-West financial system cross-border settlement solution in real money - 40% back by gold. There is NOT a solution - the credit bubble is bursting. 300T in derivatives will blow sky high. Hang on tight and enjoy Christmas. Me think next year will be real different.

Dave J's avatar

Everything you say is true, but I have been waiting and investing accordingly (right along with Tom and Dan and Bill before BPR) for 15 years now and it just doesn't happen. I have no doubt it will, but at 67 I'm beginning to think I won't get to see it. There seems to be a very, very long road on which to kick the can.

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Dave, you have been patience beyond the "pale" as ol' Bill would mutter. But it is here. Like you it has only been 11 years and my first buys of silver was $14/oz. We have stacked and stacked and the time is nigh. It is going to FINALLY be our year and, unfortunately, a hell of a year for America. Ugly is insufficient to convey what lies ahead. I just hope you have stacked 1000 of ounces. Good Luck and let's watch it unfold in the months ahead. Sad but we are prepared!

Paul Murray's avatar

As Billy Joel sang, "I took the good times; I'll take the bad times." As I recall, he ditched Ms. Brinkley, anyway. Best always. PM

Paul Murray's avatar

As I said, "as I recall", which is a cop-out, because I was too lazy and disinterested to look it up. My experience with the Big Ego types is that they generally make the mistake. Best always. PM

Abe Porter's avatar

Dear Ol’-I agree with almost everything you just wrote (a rarity). I disagree that the ‘unit’ will be the next world currency. I believe that the IMF will establish a new money for exchange that will be composed of several currencies. AP

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Abe, I am stunned. We agree on somethings - Wow! Wonders never cease. That is an interesting thought....maybe........my view is the East and Global South do not trust or want any part of the Western financial system. And, the IMF is right in the center of that. The focus of the non-Western aligned nations is to forsake the West and all its controlling organizations. But, then again, I don't think there will be one world reserve currency again. It has become a multi-polar world and that goes for cross-border settlement systems as well. But, as the US$ crumbles and Europe/UK fall apart, the West definitely is going to do something. I hadn't thought about the IMF but just maybe - even the IMF along with the BIS. Interesting.........something to ponder and watch for.

Don Hrehirchek's avatar

In My opinion, Abe P. and An OL'LSO, Digital will be the nemesis of the financial world. Just My thoughts as Governments can and will control You and I.

Abe Porter's avatar

Unfortunately yes

Steven King's avatar

You change the structure. As an example if you believe in AI then reduce our military spending by 20% this year and 1% for the next 10 years. Removing income cap of SS will add a decade or more of solvency. Reducing SS payments to those whose annual income exceeds benefit by 10X. Increasing the tax rate on the top 1% of earners. Institute a workfare programs to get people off of state welfare programs. Our healthcare system is an expensive disaster, Socialist countries spend less per patient than we do - how is that possible. I can see a huge savings potential here. My congressman believes that our national debt will be solved by AI adoption, me not so much.

Paul Murray's avatar

Our national debt will never be solved, nor anything else about this country be solved, so long as we are determined to stick with our consensus-based system and have zero consensus among the electorate. Best always. PM

Ed Burns's avatar

Judging from the latest news out of the Caribbean basin, I think the "War on Drugs" is still being fought, and the "losers" are fish food.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Sure. We're winning the war on drugs! Killing a few low level suspects.Think back to how much drug trafficking was reduced after they got Pablo Escobar. The recently pardoned drug trafficker, ex Honduran president Hernández, helped fill the void by helping to move over 400 tons of cocaine into the US. It's interesting that here in the US we love capitalism and the Law of Supply and Demand. Too bad no politician regardless of their team will address the issue of demand.

Ed Burns's avatar

Drugs have been around forever, hence any “war” will also need to be pursued in perpetuity. Best any nation can do is to affect supply and exact a price for the pushers. However, there’s quite a bit of irony involved in the criticism of Trump for impeding drugs coming in over our borders on the heels of a cacophony of crickets over the discovery of cocaine in the last administrations Whitehouse.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Drugs have been around for ever, you could even buy cocaine and opioid products in your local pharmacy before the passage of the Harrison Narcotics Tax Act in 1914. So once again Reagan's "We're here from the government to help" proves true. Our esteemed government magically transformed a personal medical issue into criminal activity and enriched both themselves and the traffickers. Maybe we should take a lesson from Prohibition and return to pre 1914 America. End the drug war and use the savings to address the demand side of drugs.

Paul Murray's avatar

Please, can we go back just another measly 2 years to 1912, thereby avoiding the Federal Reserve and the Income Tax? Many thanks. Best always. PM

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Agreed and don't forgot good old Woodie Wilson also campaigned in 1916 with the slogan " He kept us out of war". But like most politicians he was a liar who got us into the war. Wilson should definitely be in the running for worst US president.

Ed Burns's avatar

Not too supportive for overly indulgent drug policy. When Colorado legalized pot sales traffic fatalities increased. The notion of one having a “personal” drug problem ends when a drugged or drunken driver plows through a crowded sidewalk. Even if imperfect, government policy needs to remain on the side of protecting innocent citizens lives, Especially when those profiting are foreigners.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Google AI says significantly more people were killed by drunk drivers in Colorado than those high on marijuana. Therefore you would support the return to Prohibition in order to save lives?

Angry Icebergs's avatar

I see..... 20 "likes"

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Can't believe there are 20 people on this BPR site agreeing the U.S. is a loser...

Very sad indeed...

Why are you people still subscribing to BPR in hopes of securing wealth?

You've already "liked" you are losers...

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Come on, Iceberg. List all the wars the US has won since WW2. It's the US government not the people. Maybe Thomas Paine said it best "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one"

Jack Grady's avatar

A favorite quote by Thomas Sowell: "It is difficult to conceive of a more unwise method of decision making than placing those decisions in the hands of individuals who bear no cost for being mistaken."

We have met the enemy and they are us. To be charitable, we are a nation who have tacitly agreed to be dumb down.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Was that a shout out to Walt Kelly's Pogo "We have met the enemy and he is us" from way back in 1970?

Ed Burns's avatar

Agree Jack, but isn’t that always the way of war? The old men start them, and the young men are sent to do the fighting.

Ed Burns's avatar

Technically speaking, the U.S. hasn’t been in any declared wars since WWII. Just “policing actions”. Check it out. The “war on drugs” was simply a marketing ploy and the movie “The War of the Roses”, while a decent movie, was just a Hollywood production. In the “Art of War” Sun Tse counsels (sic) “when encountering contested ground, move quickly through it to defensible ground”. Good advice. Given the state of political division within government these days, with time being “of the essence” it seems doubtful to me that any administration would seek a formal Congressional “War resolution” before responding to a perceived eminent threat.

Angry Icebergs's avatar

...in space (the moon), the CCCP, economics, advancement of civil rights, much of the dominant technologies now at market, diseases (vaccines), Marshall Plan, NATO ...

You site "war"...

Your mixing real wars (WWII) with political crusades and slogans.

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What prompted my response was your statement:

"Betting on the US winning a war is a lot like betting on the New York Jets winning a game".

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I'll take the U.S. Military anytime...

Ed Burns's avatar

Yes. Like it or not, we’re in a hegemonic struggle for control over world power. Some say the USA wants this control, but I disagree. The only land we took over as “spoils” from WWII was just enough to bury our dead warriors. The choice is a world controlled by Communists or Capitalism. Capitalism has seen more of the world’s population lifted out of poverty and disease than communism ever has or ever will. I rest my case.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Just trying to add a little humor to the discussion. But it does show that the federal government has been ineffective in everything they do. If you want to add vaccines please review the Warped Speed experimental mRNA vaccine. Ineffective in preventing transmission and contraction of the dreaded COVID. But the kicker is Section 5.5 of the Purchaser Agreement for the Pfizer shot. “Purchaser further acknowledges that the long-term effects and efficacy of the Vaccine are not currently known and that there may be adverse effects of the Vaccine that are not currently known.”

I guess you can say in this case our government lost the war on honesty. If the long term effects were unknown neither team should have been promoting these shots.

Paul Murray's avatar

I had read here and elsewhere that since Mr. "Literally Hitler" Trump's reascension to the proverbial Throne that "government" was running deficits to the tune of $1 trillion per quarter. If so, then a mere $173 billion shortfall for the month of November is a comparative bargain, right? We should be praising Mr. Trump's robust austerity! Best always. PM

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem." -- Ronald Reagan (Jan. 20, 1981)

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Hi Paul. Unfortunately both teams are big time deficit spenders. I just saw one estimate that Trump 1 and Biden each increased the national debt by $7.85 trillion.

Dave J's avatar

Reagan's best quote IMHO, thanks for reminding us. Bill (or his ghost writer) reveals more ankle today: ". . . Great White Father in Washington..." And I thought BPR was above playing the race card, who knew?

Tim Pallies's avatar

As to best quote, let's not forget him, shot several times, lying on a gurney being wheeled towards surgery: "I hope none of you fellows are Democrats."

Paul Murray's avatar

Whatever it takes. Best always. PM

Angry Icebergs's avatar

"If you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat."

RR

linda shawler's avatar

“Over $1 billion in sales over Black Friday/Cyber Monday was charged through BNPL platforms, a 4.2% YoY increase, according to shopping data from Adobe, which predicts total BNPL spending will reach $20.2 billion by the end of the holiday season.

About 41% of BNPL users were unable to make payments on time, up from 34%, and 60% of users hold multiple loans.” Armstrong economics.

Buy now pay later is becoming more of a trend among young people without credit cards and it’s being used for grocery purchases! There are some definite red flags here for the economy!

Trump is just doing what he was taught in school and of course he’s viewing money from a borrowers perspective!

He doesn’t realize that low interest rates are not going to fix our massive problems, and he isn’t the only one!

Paul Murray's avatar

Are you sure he doesn't realize or is merely trying to buy time? I think that's been his gambit this second go-'round. Best always. PM

linda shawler's avatar

Maybe a little of both! He seems to be clearly hung up on the low interest rates, no matter what, but I’m sure he’s also trying to buy time just like he’s trying to buy favor by giving the farmers money, because he sees his popularity ratings going down the drain!

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Unfortunately, ol' TACO is all tied up in his ego and he wants his legacy to be HUGE. He is a narcissist and has become delusional about the "power" he has. It is unfortunate for America and most of the world knows it. His foreign political strategy is MIA - there is none. And, he isn't focused back on America. Did he really think he could tariff/sanction the world with no response? Did he think China/Russia/Iran were so weak or so scared of the U.S. they would come and bow to King Trump? China and the Global South are building relations and expanding their economies helping their people to a better life - over here in the West, it is threats and tariffs and sanctions. Trump has been through something like 6 bankruptcies - and he seems focused on making America No. 7. I voted for the Orangeman because Harris was a non-starter but geez........

Paul Murray's avatar

He closed the border. That was job number one for me. I didn't expect him to be effective or effectual on anything else, because everything else was already a lost cause. As I said, our problems are structural, i.e. not going away. Best always. PM

linda shawler's avatar

Yes, I certainly believe he overestimated the clout of the United States, even though most of the countries still don’t seem to want to engage us in an all out war! My understanding at this time is that China doesn’t really need a lot of our services! Also, according to Colonel Wilkerson, it seems that our focus is turning away from Europe and Russia and more toward China, who we view as a greater threat, especially since they’re taking over in a lot of places! The Panama Canal is one example! Apparently we are trying to wrest some of these areas back from the Chinese and to reinstate our hegemony in the Caribbean and South America! I’m not positive that this is true, but that discussion was had on Judging Freedom, and that was my impression. I’m also not sure that the tactics that we might use to accomplish it are going to be well received!

It’s obvious to me anyway that a lot of what’s going on is not what is being stated, except maybe as a side effect, for example, stopping drugs, but instead it’s about regime change and hoping to install individuals that are more in line with the values that we claim to hold dear!

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Unfortunately the deal for the Panama Canal was for BlackRock to buy ports near the Panama Canal not for "we" the US to do it. Just remember that before the last election Larry Fink said that it didn't matter who won the election. Larry and his bankster buddies control the game.

linda shawler's avatar

Yes, I had heard that! I’m not saying it’s not true. I don’t know.

“Michael Yon, a geopolitical analyst who recently returned from Panama, warns that China is "colonizing" the country through infrastructure projects, commercial ports, and migration. "The Chinese are taking over positions of power, mostly behind the scenes”. He seems to indicate that they have a lot of control over the Canal at this time.” It’s not just the Panama Canal either! Even Gaza is allegedly about energy.

There’s a lot of information out there on the Internet and he has a number of videos if you’re interested!

Paul Murray's avatar

BlackRock has been around since 1988. Jimma gave away the Panama Canal in 1978, snookering even John Wayne in the process. While BlackRock could have been worked into the arrangement as it went along, it was, I don't think, a consideration originally. Just another of Carter's misplaced idealism and half-baked ideas. How many of the Insider Gang do Larry and Co. have to grease to "control the game"? I can't believe BlackRock gets a free hand on demand; as Rhett Butler said, "It's not that easy, Scarlett." Best always. PM

Paul Murray's avatar

China needs absolutely NOTHING from us, except two things: a source of technology which they can rip off, and a place to dump their conscripted slave-labor goods. I have seen estimates that over the past 2 decades, US markets constitute as much as 30% of international GDP. Now, I don't care, who you are and what kind of hegemon you have/own: if you have an economy currently running on serving such a large market, and you suddenly take it into your mind, such as it is, to co-opt, conquer, and/or break that market, taking as much as a 30% "hit" to revenues, it's going to hurt you as much as those whom you seek to dominate. China thinks they're so darn clever. The problem is, the perfect crime requires perfect people and perfect dupes. It never works out that way. Best always. PM

linda shawler's avatar

I’m not sure you’re giving China enough credit currently!

I’m not sure they are as unadvanced as you seem to indicate! I hear their deep seek AI model is totally open source and considerably better than a number of others out there! They have EVs replacing Tesla!

A number of their cities are extremely modern! I can’t write anymore because this is resisting me for some reason!

Paul Murray's avatar

Regarding increases on fast food costs/prices: when fast-food jobs became the staple of the working class, and these formerly temporary first steps in a career path now became a destination, and wages were summarily doubled (or more) to $15-$20 per hour, what did we expect? No effect? That's NOT inflation; it's meddling. Prices can increase from distortions/misallocations as well as plain, old, boring inflation (which is defined as increasing the money supply beyond the rate of production, thereby necessarily reducing the purchasing power of the currency in use). I'm sure inflation and the resulting loss of purchasing power have affected the cost of fast food to some degree, but absolutely NOTHING like doubling the cost of labor overnight. Stupid. The idea is stupid. Having implemented the idea is stupid. Those who proposed it and effected it are stupid, and we are stupid. Best always. PM

David Raskin's avatar

I think I'm pretty good at simple math (as long as I don't have to carry the one); 2025 - 2020= 5. Food prices are up 26% since 2020, but Trump has only been president for 11 months or less than 1/5th the time. I think Bill should check his location for those pesky TDS mosquitos; he may have been bitten and infected.

Ed Burns's avatar

Actually, China started the Trade War - they just did it quietly and slowly. Like the frog in the boiling pot, no one reacted until "the Donald" chose to highlight, expedite and purposely precipitate a conflict.

Now Western European nations have joined with Trump.

A chorus of voices raising awareness of a creeping mercantilism with dark hegemonic militaristic intent. At times like this it may be wise to heed Machiavelli's survival advice for the Medicis'.

"far better to be feared than loved".

Angry Icebergs's avatar

The Chinese found new export avenues, bully for them.

No reason to dog Trump's tariffs.

Chinses exports to the U.S. fell by 29% in November 2025.

The dependency upon China is diminishing...

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Perhaps it's time to face the truth. This isn't our grandpappy's America. As Blanch Dubois in Street Car Named Desire said "Whoever you are—I have always depended on the kindness of strangers". For years we have depended on strangers who have allowed us to exchange paper printed by the Fed for actual products. We can blame both parties and ourselves for letting this happen. Even conservative superstar Ronnie Reagan was at fault - almost tripling the national debt!

Eid's avatar

The debt increased because taxes were cut and spending was NOT ..as with Bush and Trump

Prosperi Denis's avatar

Bill you like to report financial facts . Please report what tariffs our exports face overseas before Trump even got into office . I hate tariffs as much as you but you are as bad as Trump in only painting the facts that match your agenda

An Ol' LSO's avatar

America's tariffs overseas? What does America product anymore - US$ has been the U.S.'s primary export. So many US$ roaming around and those don't get tariffs. Trump and his tariff war is just plain BS. And, it - along with the weaponizing the US$ by freezing Russian assets in the Biden administration - has and continues to cause other countries to move East. No one trusts the U.S. anymore. Just thinking about this - Trump stole the tanker with Iranian oil - why? he said it is "illegal Iranian oil". Seriously, he decides what is legal and illegal worldwide? What a clown and he is accelerating countries to not walk but run from America. Time to wake-up and smell the coffee, folks!

Patrick H Neff's avatar

Trumps not only a US dictator, he's a world dictator.

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Tries to be but I think he understands his limitations. He certainly doesn't dictate to China, Russia, or Iran and Saudi Arabia has thrown away the Petro$. The East and Global South are racing away from America and has the US$ plunges more will too. The U.S. makes nothing the world wants - it used to make US$ that the world wants but that has all changed. China's GDP is up, Russia is doing fine as Iran along with China moving steadily away. The G7 is collapsing - Europe and the UK are dead economies walking. My view is the TACO Clown is the world dictator only in his mind and who knows where that is!

Patrick H Neff's avatar

True, that was my point, he is dictator to all these countries U mention in one way or another. of course, in his imbecilic actions and mind. (IQ 74).

An Ol' LSO's avatar

Patrick - I am with you. Watching the World running towards brick wall is amazin'. Especially the U.S. and the politicians are truly revolving. Since Bush and Obama it has gone worse and worse. Both socialist and anyone with 1/2 a brain knows socialism never works and, if/when they try a Universal Basic Income it is going to rot immediately. And Biden was a stupid socialists - but, of course, it is whoever was pulling the strings - Biden mentally wasn't there. Trump is a disaster and just accelerating the race to the brick wall. Hope you are preparing.....it is going to be horrific.

FlyingDad's avatar

“according to a report by Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee... “ Hmmm…could be a bit of a partisan issue here?

Mike Ware's avatar

Lol 😂 exactly my thoughts when I read that. Bill is cherry picker on his “facts”. And he’s not very smart about it.

Nick Harding's avatar

Not sure that the last part about China and their 1 trillion dollar surplus is correct, can they be trusted to publish anything meaningful?

Bill's avatar

I'm sorry I'm confused. I thought the American taxpayer was the one who paid the tariffs. So why would china and other countries respond negatively to the tariffs. Especially on foodstuffs? Did the u s tariff the export of soybeans beans as an example? Are they stop buying them? Do they know , in fact , that our import tariffs are in fact to the benefit of the u s economy and to the detriment of their own ?

True free trade barely exists anywhere... Ebay, Marketplace, Farmer's market? Hell , even the farmer's market is subsidies by the local taxes. Flea market! That's it.

Eid's avatar

The tariffs make their products more expensive and less competitive

Leonard Hartman's avatar

With our government's large payment, could our government be buying farmer's assets?

Leonard Hartman

Dennis T.'s avatar

The problem with tariffs is they imposed by government which tends to fudge the numbers or make them up entirely. On one hand we are told tariffs have brought in billions of dollars of wealth to America, but at what cost to the consumer? Will the consumer be repaid their loses with the billion's earned? I'd bet the consumer will see less affordable foreign goods and foreigners less affordable American goods. Who will profit, certainly no one believes Washington, DC will spend every last dollar on their pet projects?

For the citizen with the intent to tossing out the bums via the midterm elections understand one key fact. Each time Democrats have controlled both the houses and the presidency an axe has been laid to trunk of the Republic. Education tends to shy away from historical facts, Woodrow Wilson ended the Republic with the Federal Reserve Act which passed by majority 100% along party lines with all Republicans in both houses against and all Democrats for except 5 in congress who voted present aka these helped the measure pass. The Federal Reserve Act was unconstitutional on every level, only congress can set the value and quantity of money in circulation. No worry they all got on board and it seems the idea of buying votes has taken hold on both sides of the isle and with the populace as well.

Not to worry in the past 50 years each time Republicans have had control of government personal freedom has been under attack in the guise of wars against imaginary foes. Bush with the Patriot Act, which resulted in sending the Middle East into complete chaos, while having American's remove their shoes at the airport. Now turned into a full body Xray or physical pat down.

Either way this is not going to end well either for the citizen or the government but as Biden noted he controlled better weapons than the populace.

Robert Hall's avatar

What is described in this article is terrible for America but, under the Democrats, it has been and would be far worse. Pick your poison.

John Henry Aiken's avatar

I guess your theory of how to best get over the horrid Biden(or whomever was running the show) era is for everyone to just figure out what they want for their wares??!? Who thunk it would be so easy to fix!