Friday, August 7th, 2026
Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France
Yesterday, in the spirit of ‘no cynicism left behind,’ we looked at a provocative hypothesis.
What if the US elite has become even more ‘extractive’ than usual? And what if Donald Trump, schooled in shakedowns and extortion by Roy Cohn, is not just an unusual politician, but merely a golden leaf on a dried-out tree…a symptom, not a cause?
Trump Shuttle, Trump Steaks, Trump Travel, Trump University, Trump Taj Mahal…all failed. He may be a ‘bad businessman.’ But nobody’s that bad a businessman. Some of these start-ups should have succeeded just by random chance. But what if he is neither a bad businessman...nor a bad POTUS...but perfectly suited to his time and place?
Let us imagine the once-proud US empire as an old lady going down the stairs. How to help her down? Gently offer an arm? Or give her a shove?
Trump was the man for the job. He merely applied his extractive ‘business’ techniques to the US government.
This approach doomed Trump’s Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City; but it had no such effect on Donald J. Trump. He bought the unfinished pile in 1988 — his third Trump casino in Atlantic City. It opened in 1990. It went broke in 1991. (The other two closed their doors later.)
Laid-off employees demonstrated in front of the building. Contractors pressed their claims in court. All of them said they had been ripped off.
An industry analyst told Trump at the get-go that the project would fail. Trump had borrowed too much money at too-high interest rates. The place would have to generate more than a million dollars per day in order to stay solvent. No casino anywhere in the world had ever made so much money.
Trump’s response to this news was pure Cohn — he went after the analyst...and tried to get him to recant, or be fired.
But what the expert didn’t realize was that Mr. Trump never intended to succeed, not in a conventional way. Real businesses — in which real services or products are offered to consumers, at a profit — are win-win. Both the customer and the enterprise come out ahead. But they take time.
No real businessman would go on a Trump-style spree of start-ups...an airline...a university...Bibles...crypto...etc. The successful serial entrepreneur is as rare as a jackalope. Normally, it takes many years to learn and develop a real business. A person is lucky if he is able to do one or two in a lifetime. Henry Ford did not sell out his automobile business and start up an enterprise making toilets. John D. Rockefeller did not pivot out of oil in the 1880s so he could invest in buggy whips. And the Rolling Stones did not switch to chamber music. The entrepreneur who wants to succeed puts his head down and sticks to his knitting.
Successful government policies are not things you want to announce on a tweet, develop on the fly, and turn on a dime either.
Whether in business or in government, you need to invest time to know what you’re doing. And it takes a bit of modesty. The young entrepreneur who thinks he knows what customers should have...the rookie politician who thinks he can re-arrange the Middle East...the novice investor who believes he knows which way prices are going...the preacher with the key to Heaven...the suitor who looks in a mirror and finds an irresistible lover — all of them are inviting a ‘learning moment.’
But Trump had already learned his lessons — at the feet of the aforementioned mafia lawyer, Roy Cohn. Lenders, investors, customers, contractors and suppliers may have lost money on the Taj. But Trump made sure he got paid...and let the casino declare bankruptcy later.
In honest businesses, as in honest government, the ultimate challenge to the ‘deciders’ is to provide something worth more than it cost to produce. In business, this extra is a ‘profit.’ In government there is no profit so the real goal should be to offer a tolerable level of justice, security, and predictability at the least expense to taxpayers.
Everyone should share the same goal. Good leaders surround themselves with the best advisors and assistants they can. Success depends on the group, not on an individual. All should be treated with respect; they are all on the same team.
But circumstances change. Businesses on the way down are very different from those on the way up. Governments too. And both are subject to degeneration and decadence …and infested by jealous, stupid, lazy jackasses who will find ways to take advantage of it. They turn from looking outward — towards the customer and voters...to looking inward...at themselves. The game shifts from win-win to win-lose. The Big Man eliminates potential rivals and fills his inner circle with cronies and sycophants. They no longer care about a better product or a better world. They see the ship lying low in the water...and make sure they have a place in the lifeboat.
Some organizations — such as the mafia — function as win-lose enterprises from the start. They get wealth by taking it from others — often disguised as a payment for ‘protection.’ It is the deal that Donald Trump offered Iran...take it, or bad things will happen to you.
A couple of years ago, our hunch was that Donald J. Trump had come not to save the empire…but to kick the old lady down the stairs. Now the picture is clearer; he was trained for the job.
Stay tuned...
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Bank of America’s Sentiment Gauge has most ‘Extreme Bull’ reading since 2021
Just one question: Does anyone here, including Bill, think that the voters made the wrong choice in 2024? That the only alternative on offer, a Kamala Harris Presidency, would have been better? Sometimes we only get to vote for the lesser of two evils. And if that were the voters choice in 2024, who should really be blamed, "the man in the ring" who prevailed, or those powerbrokers in the Democrat Deep State who pinned their hopes on.... what exactly?
Just whinny sour grapes - now pointing their finger outward with four pointing inward..
Bill has a point. You gotta shake your head at who can win elections in the US of A. I can think of some doozies, why not start in 2008? There have been lots of examples since then, makes one feel like it's a whitewater raft trip. The guides thinks the rocks are the targets.