Since the feds rarely get what they intend, however, a good guess is that we will see an unexpected sharp deflation...and then an unexpected runaway inflation in reaction.
The sharp deflation won't be enough to be effective: what's needed is a total bust, forcing a restart or a break-up, or both. Why? Because in that scenario, the government who caused the problems originally doesn't survive, and if any government ever needed to go, this one does. Best always. PM
Paul, I believe the "total bust" you are calling for, is in fact, now being kicked off by Hormuz. The firecracker has been lit; it is just a matter of time. KABLOOEY!!
The long view I agree. Problems arise when, all of a sudden, we’re treated to a view on debt and fiscal malpractice that becomes localized and Partisan. I say this, not as a “Trumpster” but rather as an observer of the impact of fundamental and foundational feed-ins to the economic health of any nation, which is energy. I have a sense that Bill must understand this impact, but for some reason, we neither get a defense of or any post-mortem evaluation of the Biden administrations “Inflation Reduction Act” aka “The Green New Deal” that drove inflation to a peak in 2022. The silence was and is, quite deafening. No evaluation of top-down government dictates to the auto industry that failed spectacularly, nothing… Here’s an idea Bill. Look at the historical impact of erroneous macro decisions that drove (other past) economies to experience record inflation and then a cold-eyed evaluation as to how long those mistakes lingered, slowly driving up wage rates as people struggled to adjust. I would be surprised if the effect of the governmental push for windmills and solar “farms”, so soon proven to be inadequate in the ability to produce the amount of electrons required for either EV or, especially AI - such a provably socialist boondoggle, that even you could defend it. There’s your current inflation. Trumps may be on the horizon, but today, it’s a cumulative series of error, and the most recent “elephant in the room” was actually born of a Delaware Jackass.
You must be a new reader. Bill went on ad nauseum about the stupidity of the IRA and Green New Deal during Biden’s term. And he also regularly denigrates the stupidity of the fiscal irresponsibility of both parties. Perhaps it is your blinders that makes today’s missive a partisan issue.
I think I may be one of the original subscribers actually. And, as one who appreciates historical context throughout the ages, as well as my own half century of engineering experience with energy and a host of other related industry, I really don’t consider myself as having blinders. But how is your own eyesight? Tell me, how many fingers am I holding up right now?
Now Ed, be nice. I do agree with your first post today. We are living with the mess Biden left us. I do wonder about the lasting impact of the growing debt mess we are creating now. We all know where this will end. DON'T sell any gold!
I agree with the debt problem as well. Maybe Trumps Space Force is too expensive? Maybe just in time…. Regardless, the only thing we can do about this is going “Doge on steroids”, reducing outlays, attempting to expand our economy or…printing more money. Rather than “wail and lament” over and over again, why don’t we explore some of the other possibilities in greater depth? Perhaps some other inevitabilities, as underlying drivers, as well?
Interesting that other voices are now connecting the dots, vis a vis Trumps recent moves. Energy as the theme and the order of execution revealing what some see as an overarching strategy.
I agree and we’re all tempted to reinforcement of our prejudices. We’re only human. But history offers so much perspective on the pivotal role of energy and a nations economic progress and, ultimately, its wellbeing, from the Industrial Age forward. Therefore, shouldn’t the most recent IRA legislation, a now proven boondoggle and one that even the Europeans are rethinking, deserve some honest context? If agreed, wouldn’t that context be easily compared to Trumps recent initiatives in energy exporting and importing nations for either criticism or support? Let the chips fall where they may, but let’s at least see an honest effort.
We in the wee small island of Australia have wizards running our country.
- We ignore the case studies of Germany and UK etc are going 100% renewables of wind & solar supplied by China - flat chat on borrowed funds.
- 90% refined liquid fossils come by ships we don’t refine here any more union leaders made sure so we shut refineries down over the last 20 years down to 2. One had a big fire 🔥 yesterday .. OOPS!
- We don’t need the standard 90 days back up supply of liquid refined fossil fuels in country as we can go with empty Jerry cans to countries in Asia and beg supply when we run out.
- We have loads even world’s greatest supplies of uranium and of course coal but don’t dare use as it’s either dangerous or dirty
- All our trucking, mining equip, farmers needs are diesel based but bureaucracy don’t visit farms or mine sites they sit at desks, work? at home or debate climate change over oat milk etc lattes.
- Lots of other cut our throat initiatives by governments that play into this mugs game called democracy with socialist and marxists characteristics
Come on over and bring your Nikes and bikes we won’t be driving soon, so roads will be easier to run or cycle along in about 3 months.
Immigration doors wide open to anyone under crazy laws.
Dear Bill, please do continue to be a pessimistic wet blanket. Your experience and wisdom of 60 plus years is exactly what we need at this fraught inflection point in time.
This is a reader who was a member of the Bonner & Partners Family Office project fifteen years ago and who spent a highly educational week at your Normandy chateau, and who is able to appreciate your insights and historical knowledge much better now!
lol 😂 no. Please feel free to check my comments to some of Tom Dyson’s messages (none of which he cares to acknowledge, of course). And my lack of likes to some of Bill’s political posts. 😊
But when i make real money and avoid real losses due to Bill’s insights (esp at a fragile moment like this), and when I’ve benefitted profoundly from a journey, I feel it’s important to share this with Bill and give thanks.
Bill, I liked you missive today. Yes, to avoiding the big loss, and yes keep your powder dry is very good advise these days. You have been preaching this idea for many years. Yes, keep your ear to ground for the mega trend, yes most of us would agree. Yes, a significant number of Americans businesses are of the zombie variety kept alive by smoke and mirrors and are very well camouflaged and very dangerous investments.
Yes, to the nature and the manner in which the government is funded, again with smoke and mirrors where the military spending is increased and so is everything else but in smoky gray rooms where the K street whores are considered a necessary commodity. But no, you, nor anybody else knows the international politcal or economic impact on the Iranian war. The fallout is yet to be determined and you would do well to keep your powder on this issue.
I find it strange that so many comments are directed at who is to blame for the unsustainable debt the US finds itself in. Is it Trump, Biden, Trump, Obama Bush, Clinton....? IMO this is all irrelevant. We all know what has happened.
Since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window after De Gaulle demanded gold for dollars the US had the freedom to print money aided by the petrodollar and world reserve currency status it has been able to live way above its means and go deeper into debt. Other factors such as seizing Russia's dollar reserves fighting senseless wars, maintaining 800 military bases around the world and now the biggest blunder, going to war at Bibi's behest. The rest of the world is losing faith in the dollas it is rapidly beoming worthless and they are loathe to buy US bonds when they recognise that they will be paid back in worthless dollars.
What to do?. Stop living beyond your means Stop being the world's policeman.Close the military bases and bring the troops home. Stop supporting Israel's reprehensible behaviour. for a start
When the world ended in 1971 according to Bill, I was 10 years old. 55 years later I am still here. Maybe we all could have been a lot richer, or less in debt, but that is water under the bridge. There is nothing in place to change the primary trend other than a catastrophic event, so you can either hope that it happens, or you can just continue riding the bus. Preventing the Big Loss only buys you a little time, it doesn't prevent the inevitable. Look around and try to enjoy life!
Gosh! All I can think of is that you think Trump is a complete idiot and Biden was simply brilliant (if he could ever wake up and smell the wilted roses) .
The sharp deflation won't be enough to be effective: what's needed is a total bust, forcing a restart or a break-up, or both. Why? Because in that scenario, the government who caused the problems originally doesn't survive, and if any government ever needed to go, this one does. Best always. PM
Paul, I believe the "total bust" you are calling for, is in fact, now being kicked off by Hormuz. The firecracker has been lit; it is just a matter of time. KABLOOEY!!
The long view I agree. Problems arise when, all of a sudden, we’re treated to a view on debt and fiscal malpractice that becomes localized and Partisan. I say this, not as a “Trumpster” but rather as an observer of the impact of fundamental and foundational feed-ins to the economic health of any nation, which is energy. I have a sense that Bill must understand this impact, but for some reason, we neither get a defense of or any post-mortem evaluation of the Biden administrations “Inflation Reduction Act” aka “The Green New Deal” that drove inflation to a peak in 2022. The silence was and is, quite deafening. No evaluation of top-down government dictates to the auto industry that failed spectacularly, nothing… Here’s an idea Bill. Look at the historical impact of erroneous macro decisions that drove (other past) economies to experience record inflation and then a cold-eyed evaluation as to how long those mistakes lingered, slowly driving up wage rates as people struggled to adjust. I would be surprised if the effect of the governmental push for windmills and solar “farms”, so soon proven to be inadequate in the ability to produce the amount of electrons required for either EV or, especially AI - such a provably socialist boondoggle, that even you could defend it. There’s your current inflation. Trumps may be on the horizon, but today, it’s a cumulative series of error, and the most recent “elephant in the room” was actually born of a Delaware Jackass.
You must be a new reader. Bill went on ad nauseum about the stupidity of the IRA and Green New Deal during Biden’s term. And he also regularly denigrates the stupidity of the fiscal irresponsibility of both parties. Perhaps it is your blinders that makes today’s missive a partisan issue.
I think I may be one of the original subscribers actually. And, as one who appreciates historical context throughout the ages, as well as my own half century of engineering experience with energy and a host of other related industry, I really don’t consider myself as having blinders. But how is your own eyesight? Tell me, how many fingers am I holding up right now?
Now Ed, be nice. I do agree with your first post today. We are living with the mess Biden left us. I do wonder about the lasting impact of the growing debt mess we are creating now. We all know where this will end. DON'T sell any gold!
Jim Marshall
I agree with the debt problem as well. Maybe Trumps Space Force is too expensive? Maybe just in time…. Regardless, the only thing we can do about this is going “Doge on steroids”, reducing outlays, attempting to expand our economy or…printing more money. Rather than “wail and lament” over and over again, why don’t we explore some of the other possibilities in greater depth? Perhaps some other inevitabilities, as underlying drivers, as well?
Great imagery, my early morning laugh 😃 thx
Hopefully, the middle one.
No he didn't.
Response from Bonner - crickets!
Interesting that other voices are now connecting the dots, vis a vis Trumps recent moves. Energy as the theme and the order of execution revealing what some see as an overarching strategy.
That's the problem with ideology, it is only capable of seeing, understanding, and enhancing one truth moreover, the only truth.
I agree and we’re all tempted to reinforcement of our prejudices. We’re only human. But history offers so much perspective on the pivotal role of energy and a nations economic progress and, ultimately, its wellbeing, from the Industrial Age forward. Therefore, shouldn’t the most recent IRA legislation, a now proven boondoggle and one that even the Europeans are rethinking, deserve some honest context? If agreed, wouldn’t that context be easily compared to Trumps recent initiatives in energy exporting and importing nations for either criticism or support? Let the chips fall where they may, but let’s at least see an honest effort.
We in the wee small island of Australia have wizards running our country.
- We ignore the case studies of Germany and UK etc are going 100% renewables of wind & solar supplied by China - flat chat on borrowed funds.
- 90% refined liquid fossils come by ships we don’t refine here any more union leaders made sure so we shut refineries down over the last 20 years down to 2. One had a big fire 🔥 yesterday .. OOPS!
- We don’t need the standard 90 days back up supply of liquid refined fossil fuels in country as we can go with empty Jerry cans to countries in Asia and beg supply when we run out.
- We have loads even world’s greatest supplies of uranium and of course coal but don’t dare use as it’s either dangerous or dirty
- All our trucking, mining equip, farmers needs are diesel based but bureaucracy don’t visit farms or mine sites they sit at desks, work? at home or debate climate change over oat milk etc lattes.
- Lots of other cut our throat initiatives by governments that play into this mugs game called democracy with socialist and marxists characteristics
Come on over and bring your Nikes and bikes we won’t be driving soon, so roads will be easier to run or cycle along in about 3 months.
Immigration doors wide open to anyone under crazy laws.
Thanks for the update. My impression has been that Australia has gone off its rockers, and you have confirmed it.
Yes bill, you said it… The Elephant in the China shop is … Israel ✅
Dear Bill, please do continue to be a pessimistic wet blanket. Your experience and wisdom of 60 plus years is exactly what we need at this fraught inflection point in time.
This is a reader who was a member of the Bonner & Partners Family Office project fifteen years ago and who spent a highly educational week at your Normandy chateau, and who is able to appreciate your insights and historical knowledge much better now!
Wow, I am suitably impressed. However, you sound a bit sycophantic but I could be wrong, which happens a lot.
lol 😂 no. Please feel free to check my comments to some of Tom Dyson’s messages (none of which he cares to acknowledge, of course). And my lack of likes to some of Bill’s political posts. 😊
But when i make real money and avoid real losses due to Bill’s insights (esp at a fragile moment like this), and when I’ve benefitted profoundly from a journey, I feel it’s important to share this with Bill and give thanks.
Bill, I liked you missive today. Yes, to avoiding the big loss, and yes keep your powder dry is very good advise these days. You have been preaching this idea for many years. Yes, keep your ear to ground for the mega trend, yes most of us would agree. Yes, a significant number of Americans businesses are of the zombie variety kept alive by smoke and mirrors and are very well camouflaged and very dangerous investments.
Yes, to the nature and the manner in which the government is funded, again with smoke and mirrors where the military spending is increased and so is everything else but in smoky gray rooms where the K street whores are considered a necessary commodity. But no, you, nor anybody else knows the international politcal or economic impact on the Iranian war. The fallout is yet to be determined and you would do well to keep your powder on this issue.
In high school Literature, I would start out with the dates under the author’s name. Mine is incomplete (1942-….).
My life is the most important. I am master of my fate; I must be “The Preparation” of my own life.
Founded on faith in a supreme intelligence, knocking on every door, seeking the solution to every problem, acquiring knowledge, wisdom.
Knowledge is power, contentment, happiness; experience, rightfully used, allows positive responses to a screwed up world.
Partisanship has no place in preparation; the messiah has already come with the message of abundant life.
With the Rock of ages, fate deals out what you earn.
I put my faith in no man that I find to be false, no party of men.
I find it strange that so many comments are directed at who is to blame for the unsustainable debt the US finds itself in. Is it Trump, Biden, Trump, Obama Bush, Clinton....? IMO this is all irrelevant. We all know what has happened.
Since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window after De Gaulle demanded gold for dollars the US had the freedom to print money aided by the petrodollar and world reserve currency status it has been able to live way above its means and go deeper into debt. Other factors such as seizing Russia's dollar reserves fighting senseless wars, maintaining 800 military bases around the world and now the biggest blunder, going to war at Bibi's behest. The rest of the world is losing faith in the dollas it is rapidly beoming worthless and they are loathe to buy US bonds when they recognise that they will be paid back in worthless dollars.
What to do?. Stop living beyond your means Stop being the world's policeman.Close the military bases and bring the troops home. Stop supporting Israel's reprehensible behaviour. for a start
When the world ended in 1971 according to Bill, I was 10 years old. 55 years later I am still here. Maybe we all could have been a lot richer, or less in debt, but that is water under the bridge. There is nothing in place to change the primary trend other than a catastrophic event, so you can either hope that it happens, or you can just continue riding the bus. Preventing the Big Loss only buys you a little time, it doesn't prevent the inevitable. Look around and try to enjoy life!
Equities are a gamble at the moment, not necessarily an investment.
Do we sit on the sidelines waiting, or jump in and collect while the sun still shines?
This is an investment subscription; Bill is being properly prudent.
Gamblers know what to do...
It certainly is a time for caution, isn’t it! The coming energy shock will be impressive.
Gosh! All I can think of is that you think Trump is a complete idiot and Biden was simply brilliant (if he could ever wake up and smell the wilted roses) .
One has to admit; Trump's mouth has idiot-itis...
Both awful. Trump more so for making life more costly for untold billions of non-combatants worldwide
The Biden years were stinkers. Glad his auto-pen is gone.
Yes, but one is more awful. Care to take a guess?
...really?
An open porous border allowing every dirt bag to enter is right up there with surrendering to the enemy.
Not sure what could be worse...
Well said, Bill Bonner, to hell with your long-suffering readers.
“Stocks Extend Rally and Oil Prices Stabilize as Investor Optimism Grows”
By The New York Times. April 16, 2026, 4:29 a.m. ET
🍿🍿Will the ‘herd mentality’ drive the market to even higher insanity?