A Roman Sunset

The rise and fall of empires and those who mourn their passing...

(The colosseum… almost done. Photo: Dan Denning)

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Dublin, Ireland...

In other words, there is little doubt in my mind that the existing world order is changing rapidly in challenging ways and that people who are living on the assumption that things will work in the orderly ways that they have gotten used to will be shocked and hurt by these changes to come.    

~ Ray Dalio

Fish gotta swim. Churches gotta have crosses. And empires gotta go whither they go.

That is, they need to go to the grave. And the greater the imperial success, the more lavish the funeral. The Roman Empire was the western world’s biggest success story.  It ran for nearly 500 years…and dominated all of Western Europe…North Africa…and much of the Middle East. Contemporaries regarded it as permanent.  And many of its finest achievements seem to have been constructed to be amortized over a millennia – temples, aqueducts, roads…some still in service.  

But even the Roman Empire reached its sell-by date eventually – in 476. German warfighters, many armed by the empire itself, breached Rome’s walls…and began to do what barbarians do…raping, murdering, torturing, stealing, enslaving, destroying, and vandalizing. The Empire whimpered, begged, and died. Europe spent the next 800 years in mourning.  

Mock Outrage

Yes, the empire left its monuments – the colosseum, for example, where fighters went at each other with sword and spear…where the arena was flooded so that naval battles could be staged, with hundreds of dead, for the amusement of jaded crowds. 

“It will be great when they get it finished,” said an American tourist, gawking at the colosseum, and perhaps missing the point of it. (According to Mark Twain).

And there too, still standing, is Trajan’s column, recalling the long history of battles…wars…death, destruction…sacrifice and bamboozle – stretching the empire’s limits far beyond what the first ‘Romans’ must have ever imagined.

(Dan sent this photo of Trajan’s column from a trip he took a few years back. Fittingly, the head is decapitated by a Roman sunset. Photo: Dan Denning)

And the Forum…where Senators argued, raising a finger to emphasize a point or calling out their opponents in mock outrage, much like they do in Washington today. Where and how should the empire strike next? Which ally should it support?  Which enemy should it target with sanctions and war?

When tourists first visited Rome…after reading about its antique wonders in the classics of Petrarch, Virgil and Caesar himself…they stumbled over the fallen stones, hidden in the underbrush…and chased away the goats to get a better view.  By then – this was the 18^th century – Rome was a faded memory, a remote legend…a ghost… as forgotten as Mike Pence -- like an abandoned graveyard, overgrown and forlorn; people hardly knew where it was.  

And who wept before the tomb? Who brought flowers to lay upon the grave?  

Third Time Unlucky

But Rome was not alone. Empires come and go…each one leaving, but for a few years, the faint odor of a sweaty gladiator.

The Sumerians? Akkadians? Hittites? Persians? Ottomans? Holy Romans? The Angevins? The Abbasid Caliphate? The Austro-Hungarians? Aztecs? Babylonians? Banamas? Carthaginians? Chola? Comanches? Golden Horde? Mongols? Zulu? The Belgian Colonial Empire? First Reich? Second Reich? Third Reich?   

Who remembers the Abbasid Caliphate….in 850 AD it was perhaps the richest and most powerful empire in the world. It reached across North Africa to what is today Pakistan…a distance of 3,500 miles. It fought the Byzantines…captured Cyprus…massacred the Barmakids. And who cares? Who remembers? Who lights a candle or keens at the sepulcher?  

There too among the shades and shadows is ancient Lydia. By the 6^th century, BC, it had spread its protective wings over the many tribes of Anatolia. Its king was said to be the richest man alive – Croesus. His wealth came from the river Pactolus, where King Midas was said to have washed off his “Midas Touch.”  

Lydia enjoyed its moment in the sun. Everything went well until 550 BC. It was then that Croesus made a fatal mistake. He attacked the city of Pteria and enslaved its population. But Pteria was not his to sack. Cyrus, the Persian Emperor, was not called “the great” for no reason. He counterattacked, Croesus was beaten, and soon all of Lydia squirmed beneath the Persian heel.   

What happened to Croesus? What became of his wealth? Show us where it is buried…or where Croesus lies. No one knows. And the Lydians? Pffft…gone too. Their language erased. Their empire vanished. We should spend a moment in silence, recalling the splendor of their civilization. But we have no idea…  

Fruitcake & Fuhrers

The Third Reich was supposed to last 1,000 years. In the event, fruitcakes lasted longer…the Reich was gone before children, born in 1933, became teenagers.  To this day, there are probably still a few yellowed photos of the Fuhrer hanging on neglected walls – maybe in Paraguay. And it was during the lifetime of some people reading this message that millions stood and gave the Fuhrer a stiff-arm salute. Little girls, their hair in golden braids, brought flowers to honor him.  And even now, 8 decades later, he is not yet forgotten; he is on the History Channel, almost every night. 

But where is his empire? From the Pyrenees in the West to the Urals in the East…it was triumphant…unbeatable…sure of itself and its mission. And today, its glories, such as they were, are almost unmentionable.   

And the US empire? Is this where history ends, where love and goodness reign eternal? Or will it end up in the same place as all the others? In another unmarked grave in a paupers’ field?

And will anyone give a damn?     

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Joel’s Note: As it so happens, your editor-at-large is en route to Rome this very day (we’re currently laying over in Miami Airport, roughly midway between Buenos Aires and the storied capital of the Old World, the Eternal City).

We’ll be on the road for five months or so, uncovering the myriad lessons from the fading pages of history… from the site of the very first sovereign default (on a far flung island in the Aegean) to political and economic unrest in the Near East… from the rise and fall of the Etruscans, Romans, Ottomans and plenty more who came, saw and were conquered before them. And of course, we’ll bring you our findings, including plenty of pictures and videos along the way. (If you’re not already following along on Substack’s “Notes” feature, you can join us for the journey right here - it’s free!)

First stop on our Grand Tour will be the hillside town of Tivoli, about an hour by train northeast of Rome. We wanted something close enough to the capital that we could make day trips to all the sites… but far enough away to avoid the hordes of (other) tourists, marching behind guides bearing varicolored standards.

The township of Tivoli itself traces its historical routes back to the 13th century BC, long before it was coopted into the Roman empire in 90 BC, when it became a popular resort area for the rich and powerful, famed as it was for its majestic beauty and its cool, clear waters. Augustus himself constructed a lavish villa in the hillsides, as did Maecenas (friend and trusted political advisor to Octavian) and Horace (the legendary Roman poet, he of “carpe diem” fame).

The most sumptuous villa of all, however, belonged to the emperor Hadrian. The expansive complex, which covers a square kilometer, larger than the entire city of Pompeii, was constructed around 120 AD. The most traveled of all the Roman emperors, Hadrian brought inspiration from the known world, reconstructing monuments from far flung locales right in his backyard. Historical records show the globetrotting emperor began using the villa to conduct official business during the twilight years of his reign, making it his official residence sometime in 128 AD.

After Hadrian’s death, the villa was used by his successors (busts of Antoninus Pius (138–161), Marcus Aurelius (161–180), Lucius Verus (161–169), Septimius Severus and Caracalla have been found on the premises).

But nothing lasts forever…

Eventually, the villa fell into ruin during the decline of the Roman Empire, around the 4th Century. Constantine the Great (who spread Christianity throughout the realm) removed valuable marble and statues from the premises, before it became a warehouse for warring factions of the Gothic Wars.

Amazingly, it was not rediscovered until the 15th Century… long after the glory days of Rome and the subsequent Dark Ages into which civilization fell during the interim. More to come, from the road…