36 Comments
User's avatar
Kevin Wood's avatar

Clowns to the left of me!

Jokers to the right!

Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

Paul Murray's avatar

I remember that! Went hand in glove with "If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with." (Make the best of whatever that you can.) Best always. PM

James ( Jim) Marshall's avatar

We all know the Fed is OWNED by the big five banks and it IS NOT a branch of the government. Therefore I expect the best interests of the big banks will be served. "And the beat goes on"!

Jim Marshall

Attila Rebak's avatar

Perhaps the most interesting part of this story is that, so far, the cage fight has not really begun. We have words and stated intentions, but monetary policy will eventually tell us much more than rhetoric.

I would be particularly curious to see what happens after Warsh’s first one or two serious interest-rate decisions. If he proves as hawkish in practice as he sounds in principle, the tension Bill describes may become very real.

At the same time, an interesting paradox emerges. Trump spent years criticising Powell for keeping monetary policy too tight. It would be rather surprising if, after all that, he had chosen a successor who ultimately turns out to be even more hawkish than Powell.

Perhaps that is what makes the coming meetings so interesting. We will find out not only what Warsh really believes when belief has a price, but also how much monetary restraint the administration is actually prepared to tolerate when it begins to hurt.

James ( Jim) Marshall's avatar

An interesting observation.

Jim

Angry Icebergs's avatar

Trump never said "payout".

He told everyone it would be a "dividend"...

Which can be a lot of things...

Including a ticket to the circus...

Tom Langdon's avatar

He said divided checks. What does that mean to you, Angry?

Angry Icebergs's avatar

A dividend is not cash.

A dividend usually refers to a bonus which is tied to an existing asset already invested.

IMO this could be tax relief too...

There is no time frame.

And no minimum "check amount" noted....

If the "investment" from which the dividend allegedly derives...

(presumably is the U.S. economy) does not produce adequate dividends.

Would Trump then renege?

Of course!

He has nothing to lose politically at that point if the U.S. economy does not step up.

-

I think there's a reason Trump said "dividend" and not "money" or "credit".

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Can't wait for that $5000 Trump dividend check. We can couple it with the Doge and tariff rebate checks that Donnie promised and buy a full tank of gas.

Angry Icebergs's avatar

...don't hold your breath Cartero!

We need you here to continue debating...

Paul Murray's avatar

I agree. If that's so, then his statement presumes he has equity. The term I heard and read was characterized by the Man himself as a "Trump dividend". Other than a chuckle, I immediately went on with life, thinking nothing of it. The last president to use the term was Clinton with his "Peace Dividend" which he squandered on vote-buying, setting the military back umpteen steps. Enough with the "dividends", already. Best always. PM

Silverback's avatar

The system of democracy has always been fraudulent but it is with Trump that you see its true colours. There is something refreshingly honest about his brazen behaviour which exposes democracy for what it truly is: a system of bribes in which voters exchange their freedom for the illusion of influence.

Unfortunately most people are too dumb to realize any of this, not least the credentialed and educated idiots.

Frank Westmoreland's avatar

Bill, What is the Democrats' alternative to the $5,000 giveaway? Would it not be fair to ask what they plan to do?

John P Gallien's avatar

Well, Frank, as one of the more intelligent commentators on this page, I think you know the answer to your question. The Democrats propose to sink the USA into a communist--socialist--progressive--fascist--enviro-nazi dictatorship where the government owns everything and the citizens own nothing.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Wouldn't it be nice if their alternative was to balance the budget? Both teams are equally culpable of spending us into the coming debt apocalypse.

Dave Wilson's avatar

$5000, what a cheap skate! For $100,000 your party got my vote! Thats per month by the way.

Dan's avatar

All this talk about checks and dividends is of little concern IMO. Trump won't keep control of the House and may lose the Senate as well. The liberals are trying to make it as easy as possible by running a slate of communists posing as "Democratic Socialists" but elect a Socialist, get a Communist. The independents will stay home given the absence of qualified candidates on either side of the aisle as will the moderates from both parties.

DJT will spend his remaining time in office fighting off impeachment which he will only survive if he keeps the Senate with more than two votes to spare. Otherwise, the never Trumpers in the "conservative" party will vote him out just to end the war. Given how the war is progressing, I see that conflict, that was supposed to end in "two weeks," will be with us into the next administration.

DJT has taken us down the rabbit hole with this war while failing to fulfill his promise to balance the budget. Between these two failures, America may have finally run out of luck and Bill's predictions will come true. Maybe we need to hear from Tom and Dan on specifics as to what to do when the SHTF. So far, all I've heard is when the gold ratio hits "5" we sell it and buy stocks. What if the gold is going for $10K/oz. and the Dow is at 50,000. Not sure if I am willing to sell my gold for stocks at that point...

Tom Langdon's avatar

POTUS has the bully pulpit, and as such, he can say he is giving adult Americans 5000.00 dividend checks provided the republicans win both houses of congress. Not sure if that means cash but it would appear so. So the dems are really, really upset for two reasons. First, they did think of it themselves and secondly, Trump took a page out of their socialist play book. So Trump gets to look like a benevolent capitalist while surreptitiously implementing a socialist giveaway. Such a move would appear to be politically brilliant yet economically inflationary. Bill has done the math and he says that it will increase the deficit by 1.3 trillion. Is that a bad thing? It depends, maybe, just maybe, this is the first salvo into a gold reset either by an act of congress or an executive degree to change the statutory accounting price of gold. President Franklin did so in 1934 setting the precedent.

Cartero Atómico's avatar

Isn't Trump's dividend check offer a violation of federal law 18 US Code 597:

"Whoever makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate; and

Whoever solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote.

Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both."

James ( Jim) Marshall's avatar

I truly like the idea of "mark to market" for our gold!

Jim

John Brown's avatar

the idea of "mark to market" is dependent on the purity of the gold. In a recent article in International Living .Jeff Updike speculates that the gold could be only 92.9% pure. Way short of the modern standard of 999.9% . this was based on the fact a lot of the gold was confiscated and melted down to form bars. So the gold would have to be rerefined to modern Standards

James ( Jim) Marshall's avatar

Valid point. Whatever the new number is some of us will make a HUGE profit.

Jim

Paul Murray's avatar

Whatever and whoever gets us back to a gold standard will be doing the right thing. Will we survive the transition? Best always. PM

Indian lake's avatar

I suppose Trump thinks the democrats do this all the time ( free healthcare, free education, free childcare, free drugs, free housing, guaranteed income, free food) and the rich will pay for all of it. And neither party cares about the federal debt-what the hell could go wrong?

Paul Murray's avatar

This is no joke: when I first heard that Treasury Secretary Bessent had said, "I am the House now", I thought he meant that he were the HOUSE, as in the House of Representatives, you know something along the line of Louis XIV's alleged boast "l'etat c'est moi". No kidding. That's how ridiculous it's gotten. Besides, Bessent might as well be the House; we might get some action out of him. How's that different from my Uncle, who once proclaimed in a game of Monopoly, "I own the Bank!" ? Best always. PM

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

Question. Do I buy more Gold today, or does the board think this "0.25%" interest rate

increase has more gold price destruction in it?

Mackinac's avatar

I remember that my friend got 62,000 for keeping his employees working during covid and he said."I know who I'm voting for." But then as I've watched his has definitely moved back to his conservative opinions. So if he wasn't joking the buyout didn't last long on his "business oriented" mind.

Mackinac's avatar

Good laugh, Bill.

Jimm Roberts's avatar

Bill's remarks make me wonder how all this financial higgery jiggery will end.

An Ol' LSO's avatar

From where the US sits today - not going to end well. Fiat currency including the US$ will end up in the dustbowl of history like all those that went before. No government can continue to print money forever - eventually the math comes home to roost. Once again us peons will learn what the peons-before us have learned. Eventually its power fades. And, now that the US military power has shown it has limits - and, without feet on the ground, it isn't much. But even with feet on the ground in Vietnam and Korea - just can't get it done. Oh, sure.......the U.S. can defeat Venezuela and probably shortly Cuba again. But the World has seen its limits and the Hegemony will shortly be just one of many. But Trump and his masters, the Zionists, are going to continue to try until Israel is no more. Going to be horrific - especially for us peons and the rest of the World.

Ron Gerber's avatar

As I always tell my children “There’s no hiding place down here.Trust only in the Lord Jesus Christ.”Don’t believe this world will get any better until He returns and straightens this mess out. We are here a short while to prepare for where we’ll be forever. Our guide for that preparation is the words of King Jesus in the Bible.

Jimm Roberts's avatar

Sad forecast.

Pity none of our presidents have ever embraced the simplest conquest tactic ever devised; that is, to let our flag follow trade

Paul Murray's avatar

Jimm, for some reason, and I don't know what it is (I have some guesses), the world thinks the USA is still useful. It will stop abruptly when the rest of the world can't or doesn't want to continue the charade. The catch? At that point, they are responsible for a working system with which to replace our madness. Gives one pause, before walking, right? Makes me angry to this extent: Bernanke was within 48 hours of being able to end it all and chickened out. Short-term he would have been a villain. Long-term he would have been seen as a hero. Best always. PM

Jimm Roberts's avatar

So frustrating to look back at what could have been.

We all do it individually but seldom as a nation

Our on-going World Police service is second only to slavery as a colossal error

Paul Murray's avatar

Like anything people/nations do, it got out of hand. And the US loves excess. The trend in history on which Mr. Bonner likes to rest (correctly so) is that excesses will be corrected. Again, the "when" as opposed to the "how". Best always. PM

Paul Murray's avatar

I'm more interested in "when" than "how", but that's likely what is called today a "me-problem." Remember the Clint Eastwood movie, "The Dead Pool"? Each day that goes by, I'm closer to getting out without having experienced the denouement. Best always. PM