<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Bonner Private Research: Weekly Updates]]></title><description><![CDATA[On Wednesdays, Investment Director Tom Dyson updates paid subscribers on market price action, his latest investment research, and changes or newsworthy events affecting the companies covered by Bonner Private Research. On Fridays, Editorial Director Dan Denning looks at the big picture and reviews any news or price action that affects our long-term strategy.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/s/weekly-investment-update</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KvtN!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3fe44b36-32be-4b64-aa94-86cb2fa55841_225x225.png</url><title>Bonner Private Research: Weekly Updates</title><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/s/weekly-investment-update</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 19:59:09 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Bonner Private Research]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Bonner Private Research]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Bonner Private Research]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Bonner Private Research]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Power Up]]></title><description><![CDATA[Friday, June 12th, 2026]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/power-up</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/power-up</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 23:04:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIAn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39d65b32-acf3-4131-9d79-5a8ec906da13_916x408.png" width="916" height="408" 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y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h3><em>Friday, June 12th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><p>What a day for a space dream. As epic bubbles go, this one&#8217;s been a doozy. And if the SpaceX IPO marks the symbolic (<em>if not the actual</em>) top of the AI/tech boom, well at least it&#8217;s made some cafeteria workers and janitors into millionaires. That&#8217;s more than Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren have ever done for American workers.</p><p>The company began trading today at $135/share. It raised $75 billion at that price, for a market capitalization of $1.77 trillion. After finishing up 19.2% on the day, the market cap is now $2.1 trillion. That makes it the sixth-largest American company by market cap. Add in the other five and you have $21 trillion worth of new tech &#8216;<em>wealth</em>&#8217;.</p><p>The miserable communists and envy merchants of the world can&#8217;t stand that Elon Musk is the world&#8217;s first trillionaire. Sanders wants to use Musk as the poster boy for lifting the cap on taxable income for Social Security. Having never had a real job his entire life or created an ounce of value for anyone, Sanders says if billionaires and trillionaires pay their &#8216;<em>fair share</em>,&#8217; Social Security can be saved for the next seventy-five years.</p><p>The US government spends around $1 trillion every 50 days. You could confiscate all of Musk&#8217;s net worth and it would buy you about seven weeks of spending. And in any event, as numerate people understand, net worth tied to the value of stocks is not cash. Why?</p><p>It&#8217;s not liquid. And if we&#8217;re right about this IPO marking a high-water mark for the bubble, Musk won&#8217;t be a trillionaire for long. Enjoy it while it lasts! And don&#8217;t forget that all the valuation metrics on our dashboard are screaming &#8216;danger!&#8217;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png" width="1456" height="1295" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1295,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!REVS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55972a51-df7b-49cf-a680-e704e0675118_2048x1821.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>It&#8217;s tempting to pop up some corn, add some butter, and kick back to watch the coming calamity. But you can&#8217;t help but be a little impressed about the SpaceX hype and what Musk has managed to achieve (<em>in the face of hostile politicians and carping legacy media</em>). That doesn&#8217;t make me optimistic that a &#8216;<strong>Big Loss</strong>&#8217; isn&#8217;t coming. Our mission is to avoid it.</p><p>But there WILL be a future after the bust. And on the optimistic and opportunistic side, uranium is going to be a part of it. After all is said and done in the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear will be the big winner of the Iran war. That&#8217;s worth keeping an eye on.</p><blockquote><p><strong>The World Nuclear Association updated its &#8216;reference case&#8217; for uranium demand in its 2025 report. It reckons uranium demand will double to 390 million pounds a year by 2040. That figure is a 55 million pound increase from the &#8216;reference&#8217; case in the 2023 report. What&#8217;s driving demand?</strong></p></blockquote><p>New reactors. </p><p>Trouble is, there aren&#8217;t enough new mines! </p><p>Current annual mine supply is around 155 million pounds. The big three producers, geographically, are Namibia, Canada, and Kazakhstan. With some valuable advice from our friend Rick Rule, Tom Dyson made a simple &#8216;long&#8217; uranium position the first one in BPR&#8217;s <strong>Official List</strong> (<em>make sure you don&#8217;t miss the new position Tom added, with a Canadian angle, in <a href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/one-of-the-best-assets-in-the-labrador">his note on Wednesday</a></em>). </p><p>Then there&#8217;s this chart.</p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[One of the best assets in the Labrador Trough]]></title><description><![CDATA[Campo de&#8217; Fiori, Rome]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/one-of-the-best-assets-in-the-labrador</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/one-of-the-best-assets-in-the-labrador</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 22:19:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Campo de&#8217; Fiori, Rome</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, June 10</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3><div><hr></div><p></p><p>The stock market has just logged one of the all-time great rallies in history, gaining 19% over nine consecutive winning weeks.</p><p>An exciting new technology has sparked a gargantuan capex boom. Suddenly, after years of buying back stock, Google says it wants to issue $80bn in new stock to fund even more AI investment. Meta says it&#8217;s thinking of doing the same thing. So is Amazon.</p><p>But what&#8217;s this? Some businesses are complaining about token costs and telling their staff to limit their use of AI because it isn&#8217;t worth the cost. Uber blew through its entire AI budget for the year in just four months. One company &#8212; <em>that forget to set a cap on usage</em> &#8212; reportedly spent over half a billion dollars on Anthropic&#8217;s Claude. Ooops.</p><p>Meanwhile, they&#8217;re pumping the SpaceX IPO, by far the largest IPO in history.</p><p>Suddenly, momentum has stalled. Korea, a momentum leader, has dropped 12% in the last five days. Nvidia, another momentum leader, has dropped 8.6% in the last four days. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, a third momentum leader, has fallen 11% in five days.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png" width="1456" height="769" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:769,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_tp3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c436cae-10da-4ee7-ae30-1d6e6e7782ea_2048x1081.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>And look at this final momentum leader, the outperformance of the Nasdaq100 versus the S&amp;P 400 midcap index. It&#8217;s been one-way traffic for 25 years! It&#8217;s down 5.4% since May 29&#8230; but the peak still barely registers on this chart.</p><p>Oh&#8230;and interest rates are rising, which is a stiff headwind for growth investing. And the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.</p><p>In short, I couldn&#8217;t be more bearish. This is a classic stock market bubble in search of a pin.</p><div><hr></div><h3><em>Greetings from Rome!</em></h3><p>They tied his tongue and then burned him at the stake.</p><p>This is Giordano Bruno. He believed Earth rotated around the Sun and the Universe was infinite. He was arrested by the Inquisition, and spent seven years on trial being tortured. They gave him many opportunities to recant his theories, even right up to the end when the flames were licking his feet. He still refused. So they gagged him for the last time and let him burn.</p><p>This is the exact spot where they executed him, 426 years ago.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png" width="618" height="390" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:390,&quot;width&quot;:618,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:342222,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/201505630?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2Ffd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa808190c-37f2-4779-979a-05a1a23dd2d0_618x390.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p>Let me show you the simple guide I&#8217;m using to imagine what comes next for the stock market&#8230;</p><p>This chart shows the S&amp;P 500, adjusted for inflation, going back 150 years.</p><p>The red lines show the bear markets&#8230;the long stretches where the stock market didn&#8217;t generate a positive return.</p><p>I assume that the S&amp;P 500 will return to the uppermost red line on this chart (at 3,038), probably right where those three question marks are (sometime in the early 2030s).</p><p>As the red lines show, it would not be surprising for those buying the S&amp;P 500 at today&#8217;s levels to be waiting four or five decades to see a positive return on their investment.</p><p>Overly simplistic? Maybe. Unorthodox? For sure. Contrarian? Extremely.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg" width="1242" height="920" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:920,&quot;width&quot;:1242,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpFv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5d173e3-3c14-46ed-a7a8-2c903f3ee2df_1242x920.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><em>Source: Dave Collum&#8217;s Year In Review 2025</em></p><p>Our current asset allocation is like two separate bets against the stock market. Holding cash is a direct bet against the stock market and falling prices. We have 35% of our savings allocated to cash.</p><p>Precious metals and cheap energy stocks are also a direct bet against falling stock prices, and a devalued paper currency. History shows that when stock market values mean revert, gold and other hard assets soar.</p><p>I&#8217;ve also been thinking a lot about placing a third bet against the stock market&#8230;either by selling short or by buying long-dated put options.</p><p>I&#8217;m meeting up with Dan and Bill in London later this month and I&#8217;m going to seek their counsel. For now, I feel it&#8217;s a bad idea. Why? It&#8217;s game theory. If our two existing bets against the stock market pay off &#8212; and the Dow/Gold ratio goes to 5 &#8212; we&#8217;ll end up making a fortune.</p><p>The additional impact of buying put options or short selling seems like unnecessary risk for no clear gain.</p><p></p>
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      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Battle of the Bots]]></title><description><![CDATA[Friday, June 05th, 2026]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/battle-of-the-bots</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/battle-of-the-bots</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 23:36:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg" width="1024" height="821" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:821,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:119005,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/200829653?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rgwC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb340832f-0397-422c-8a4c-4d401f4da3c5_1024x821.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">An illustrated cross-section of a B-25 Mitchell Bomber. Source: Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><h3><em>Friday, June 05th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/battle-of-the-bots">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Investment Bust]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chiswick, West London]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/investment-bust</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/investment-bust</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 22:24:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!btl4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5eb06f0d-d3e3-4c3e-98ae-0541716158a5_1192x648.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, June 3</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/investment-bust">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Stop Loss Alert]]></title><description><![CDATA[Thursday, May 28, 2026]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/stop-loss-alert</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/stop-loss-alert</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2026 21:15:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KvtN!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3fe44b36-32be-4b64-aa94-86cb2fa55841_225x225.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Thursday, May 28, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/stop-loss-alert">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Price of Glory]]></title><description><![CDATA[The founders, insiders, and anyone who already owns stock in these companies can&#8217;t wait for you to fill up your pension and 401(k) with shares. You are the liquidity they need to exit with a fortune.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-price-of-glory</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-price-of-glory</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2026 23:56:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg" width="1456" height="1941" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YzUY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F20a2d59c-2e50-450d-a5e9-81ce3638dad5_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Author</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3><em><strong>Friday, May 22nd, 2026</strong></em></h3><h3><em><strong>Laramie, Wyoming</strong></em></h3><h3><em><strong>By Dan Denning</strong></em></h3><div><hr></div><p></p><p>Well, how now, Dow? The big blue-chip index made a record intra-day AND closing high today. It went into the Memorial Day weekend strong, with a close at 50,579.</p><p><em>But wait!</em></p><p>In gold terms, the Dow is at 11.2. That&#8217;s higher than in the last few months. But it&#8217;s a long way off from the lows we expect it to make (<em>under five, if past cycles are any indication</em>). Below, we&#8217;ll look at broad money supply trends and total dollar-denominated liabilities in the global system&#8230;and what they mean for gold.</p><p>But first, late last month we said the clock was ticking on two things. First, the 90-day deadline on military operations in Iran. After 90 days, the President has to seek permission from Congress, or Congress has to explicitly authorize the operation. Second, Iran is running out of room to store the oil it pumps. Let&#8217;s begin with a chart.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg" width="1080" height="1134" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1134,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:129663,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/198904249?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uV_E!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0143744-92f1-42a9-ae75-ceb168162e0f_1080x1134.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Bloomberg</figcaption></figure></div><p>What on earth is really happening in the oil market? The physical market is still pricing scarcity. The financial market is pricing a quick and peaceful resolution to the war in Iran. In fact, even though prices are still up from early February, the <em>financial markets are acting as if the war is already ove</em>r. </p><p>Which one is right?</p><p>Industry sources still quote a large premium for oil being offloaded from tankers in Asia. That is, the price at the port is higher than the price in the newspaper. The premium is smaller than it was a month ago. But it&#8217;s still there. (<em>Many of the prices and data are behind industry paywalls or only updated intermittently, so the market is a bit opaque</em>.)</p><p>Meanwhile, there is growing concern among energy analysts that the draw-down in commercial oil inventories will mean much higher energy prices this summer. There is an important distinction to be made between commercial oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserves held by national governments. The commercial inventories are stocks that are constantly drawn on. What&#8217;s the issue?</p><p>About a billion barrels of global oil supply have been &#8220;lost&#8221; due to the Iran war. It comes out to about 14 million barrels per day (bpd) after you subtract overland pipeline supply that&#8217;s still flowing from the 20 million barrels per day that used to transit the Strait.</p><p>Some releases of strategic petroleum reserves have offset that lost production. Higher prices have destroyed demand for oil in markets that can&#8217;t afford it. (<em>There is even an argument to be made that global inventories may actually be rising&#8230;but I won&#8217;t get into that today</em>.) And with financial markets expecting the current ceasefire to be permanent, the financial price of oil is lower than you might expect for what&#8217;s been called the biggest oil shock in history.</p><blockquote><p><strong>Oil analysts concede that the Iran war began with about 8.2 billion barrels of oil reserves around the globe (</strong><em><strong>in commercial or other storage</strong></em><strong>). That&#8217;s about 86 days&#8217; worth of oil at current global daily demand of 95 mb/d. And that&#8217;s if all we had to live off of was the oil in storage &#8212; an unlikely scenario, as plenty of oil and gas are being supplied daily all over the world.</strong></p></blockquote><p>But here&#8217;s the big thing: all that oil in storage is not readily available. Some of it is required to keep systems pressurized and/or maintain critical supplies as defined by national security legislation. There is also a minimum level of reserves required to keep pipelines and refineries functioning normally. It is not available to be &#8216;released&#8217; and make up for production interruptions.</p><p>Just where that level is &#8212; and how quickly we&#8217;d get there if the Strait doesn&#8217;t open and the war doesn&#8217;t end &#8212; is the big question. In the best-case scenario, the ceasefire becomes a formal agreement for ending the war. Oil resumes flowing through the Strait, although it&#8217;s not likely to happen as easily as flicking on a light switch.</p><p>If this happens, then you&#8217;d expect the oil price to come down even further. This has no effect on our long-term position in XOP, the oil and gas producers ETF we&#8217;re using to execute the <strong>Trade of the Decade</strong>. If anything, an oil correction might allow new readers to enter the position when the RSI is at or below 30. (<em>We&#8217;ll let you know if that happens</em>.)</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Interest Rate Wrecking Ball]]></title><description><![CDATA[One trend that would hurt stock market valuations: rising interest rates. Treasury bonds are direct competitors to stocks. The more yield bonds offer, the less attractive stocks become.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/interest-rate-wrecking-ball</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/interest-rate-wrecking-ball</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 21:24:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aIRu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5fc0c9f-3808-47eb-8771-8cf312621849_1209x700.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, May 20</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3><p></p><p><strong>QUESTION</strong>: <em>DHT&#8217;s stock price has closed below $18 two days in a row. Did we say we were closing that trade? I haven&#8217;t seen an ale&#8230;</em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Need for Speed]]></title><description><![CDATA[Passive money into the market is not valuation sensitive. It&#8217;s trend sensitive. It turns most buyers into structural buyers. It&#8217;s not a question of what to buy or when to buy. It's 'buy at any price.']]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-need-for-speed</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-need-for-speed</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2026 22:48:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!niIK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f97580a-e2c4-4a53-90a5-748384c4aa56_2048x1536.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Author</figcaption></figure></div><h3><em>Friday, May 15th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Patience Before the Panic]]></title><description><![CDATA[We continue to recommend the absolute safest investment portfolio. Lots of ultra-short government bills, lots of physical precious metal, and some energy stocks to hedge against currency debasement.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/patience-before-the-panic</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/patience-before-the-panic</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 22:25:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em><strong>Chiswick, West London</strong></em></h3><h3><em><strong>Wednesday, May 13</strong></em></h3><h3><em><strong>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</strong></em></h3><p></p><p>At the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this month, Buffett said that, of the 60 years he&#8217;s been in business, only five of them have been really juicy years for buying stocks.</p><p>Another time, he said that waiting for a market panic is like a mortician waiting for a flu epidemic, which would not be a good investing technique.</p><p>Yeah, well&#8230;</p><p>Decades of flawed economics, flawed finance and flawed policy-making have inflated a gigantic bubble in leverage and speculation. They&#8217;ve created a monster&#8230; and one aspect of this monster is that market crashes come around more frequently than they used to&#8230;and each one is more powerful &#8211; and potentially destructive &#8211; than the last, requiring ever-bigger interventions from the Feds.</p><p>Furthermore, conditions today &#8212; the valuations, the concentration, the stocks-never-go-down sentiment &#8212; would seem to be perfect for a crash&#8230;or at least the perfect starting point for a bear market.</p><p>Of course, I&#8217;m not predicting a market crash. But we CAN make sure you don&#8217;t take a &#8220;<strong>Big Loss</strong>&#8221; should a crash happen.</p><p>We continue to recommend the absolute safest investment portfolio you can muster. Lots of ultra-short government bills, lots of physical precious metal, and some energy stocks to hedge against currency depreciation.</p><p>And then&#8230;patience to wait for the next panic, crisis or recession, which will surely come along sooner or later.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png" width="631" height="499" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:499,&quot;width&quot;:631,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xpHC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b76a796-ac21-4cc6-a750-791916c67956_631x499.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p></p><h3><em>Greetings from Chiswick&#8230;</em></h3><p>Dan Denning sent me the chart below of the 30-year bond yield today. It&#8217;s on the verge of making new 19-year highs above 5.11%.</p><p>Recall our traders&#8217; saying that there&#8217;s no such thing as a triple top. If a price bumps into resistance three times, then it&#8217;s clearly telling you which way it wants to go. In my experience, a breakout almost always happens after the third attempt to break through resistance.</p><p>We saw this a few years ago with the gold price as it tried to break through resistance at $2,000 an ounce, first in 2020, then again in 2022 and finally in 2024, when the gold price took off and never looked back. It&#8217;s now at $4,700.</p><p>The 30-year yield first broke 5% in 2023. Then again in 2025. And now it has just broken 5% for the third time. (<em>The 30-year bond yields 5.05% at tonight&#8217;s close</em>.) Let&#8217;s watch. </p><p>If the triple-top rule works, the long bond yield is about to head much higher. The Fed can try (<em>and even succeed</em>) in controlling the short end of the curve. But the long end is a different animal. The market sets that yield. And the bond vigilantes are about to ride again.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png" width="800" height="600" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:600,&quot;width&quot;:800,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b0RW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65169dfe-aece-443d-b688-7d7458ab6dbb_800x600.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>QUESTION</strong>: <em>We&#8217;re just beginning our journey of self-managed investing after getting rid of our financial advisor. If you were going to construct a portfolio from scratch today, would you allocate the funds according to the Maximum Safety Mode portfolio or would you &#8216;tweak&#8217; it based on where things currently stand? (i.e. gold at $4700, oil at $102 etc.). We recognize that you cannot provide investment advice but would appreciate your insights as we commence this journey!</em></p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Lean Times for Vultures]]></title><description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ll continue holding our positions, collecting dividends and waiting for the next hurricane to blow through and wreck the place. Then we can get back to buying investments that offer juicy returns.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/lean-times-for-vultures</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/lean-times-for-vultures</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2026 20:56:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1081371,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/196703453?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2hA1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7cfb32ba-b788-4f08-af59-95ddfc7cdf92_2121x1414.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Eurasian griffon vulture in flight. Source: Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, May 6</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3>
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      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Stock market Ad Astra]]></title><description><![CDATA[Friday, April 24th, 2026]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/stock-market-ad-astra</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/stock-market-ad-astra</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2026 23:13:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg" width="1024" height="681" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:681,&quot;width&quot;:1024,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:87473,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/195400348?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtbC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f5e1a4c-4d7c-4a98-a5e1-8d7fa2fe7b0e_1024x681.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3><em>Friday, April 24th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><div><hr></div><p></p><p>Two clocks, one outcome. A global energy depression and a stock market crash in the balance. Tick&#8230;tick&#8230;tick&#8230;.</p><p>The first is ticking in Washington. The President notified Congress of his military operation in Iran on March 2nd. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, he has sixty days to conduct that operation without Congressional approval. That sixty day deadline is May 2nd.</p><p>The President can unilaterally extend his operation by another thirty days by writing to Congress.  But, he&#8217;s technically only allowed to do so if those thirty days are required to conduct the safe withdrawal of US forces. War over.</p><p>Congress could step in and pass a resolution authorizing continued military force with a simple majority in both the House or the Senate. Or&#8211;<em>and here&#8217;s a radical ide</em>a&#8211;Congress could do its duty and exercise its authority under Article 1, Section 8, Clause 11 of the United States Constitution and vote, by a simple majority, to declare war. </p><p>The Congress has only done that eleven times in American history. The last was in 1942. Since 1942 there have been 15 &#8216;conflicts&#8217; in which Congress ought to have declared war but did not. Congress will not do its duty.</p><p>Technically, the President&#8217;s special military operation ought to end next week. Realistically, it could go on for at least another 30 days. And historically, based on the post 9/11 world, it could last years or decades. But in the short term, we have one clock ticking in DC.</p><p>The other is in Iran. Like everyone else in the Gulf, Iran is shipping a lot less oil these days. Their wells can keep producing as long as they have room to store that oil. But according to unofficial figures, the Iranians will run out of available storage for their oil sometime in mid May. And then?</p><p>And then they will have to &#8216;<em>shut in</em>&#8217; their producing wells. A &#8216;<em>shut in</em>&#8217; turns an oil well into a static pressure vessel. The longer the &#8216;<em>shut in</em>&#8217; the more potential damage to the oil well itself, or the long-term production of the oil reservoir below it. And obviously, you can&#8217;t sell or ship oil you aren&#8217;t producing anymore. Tick Tick. Tick.</p><p>The global oil market has lost close to 700 million barrels of oil since the war began and the Strait was closed. If things &#8216;<em>normalized</em>&#8217; today, clearing out the tanker traffic and resuming production would take time. It will be a billion barrels of &#8216;<em>lost</em>&#8217; oil before you know it. And it will take years and billions of dollars/yuan of investment to repair the damage to energy infrastructure already inflicted (<em>mostly by Iran on Gulf states</em>).</p><p>This is the largest &#8216;<em>oil shock</em>&#8217; in history, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). It&#8217;s affecting supply and refiners and distillate products all over the world. But the only reason it isn&#8217;t an even BIGGER shock yet is that the supply shock has been met by about four million barrels per day of demand destruction.</p><p>High oil prices HAVE affected affordability/demand in those markets furthest away from the Gulf or least able to pay or find a substitute supplier. But the supply shock and demand destruction have more or less cancelled each other out at the moment. This gives the appearance of a weirdly stable status quo, where you can have the biggest energy shock ever&#8230;but have no real-world consequences.</p><p>I would not expect that to last. I&#8217;m leaving out the question of whether financial markets have been used to distort the contract/paper prices for oil. This would be a form of &#8216;narrative&#8217; control to show that the war was going fine and there was no oil crisis. But the &#8216;real&#8217; price&#8211;what users are paying to unload oil&#8211;is already much higher than the &#8216;paper&#8217; price in some markets.</p><p>Another weird situation. High prices will destroy demand for people at the end of the supply chain, or without friends in oil-rich places. But that demand destruction may counter falling supply and allow for &#8216;stable&#8217; oil prices. For a while. Until when?</p><p>Well, either things get back to something like normal or they don&#8217;t. My guess is that the supply disruption is still wending its way through global supply chains. Higher prices and real shortages will show up in the summer, if not sooner. And it will show up in a politically sensitive food prices (shortages). All of THAT is assumes the worst of the interrupted flows and damaged infrastructure is behind us. And stocks? See below.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Python Strategy]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chiswick, West London]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/python-strategy</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/python-strategy</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Apr 2026 22:31:09 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1282538,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/i/195177006?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wbu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F209ce7bb-9e14-4948-baa4-e9457e0575d2_2121x1414.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, April 22nd, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[No Easy Way Out]]></title><description><![CDATA[Wanting something for nothing is human nature. Taking the easy way out to get it, apparently at no cost, is a feature of credit bubbles.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/no-easy-way-out</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/no-easy-way-out</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:24:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 1272w, 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data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:false,&quot;imageSize&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1960,&quot;width&quot;:1470,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:728,&quot;bytes&quot;:339816,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:&quot;center&quot;,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dLPI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0dccdeff-a766-4536-adab-bf583c1afb3e_1470x1960.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h3><em>Friday, April 17th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><p></p><p>It snowed in Laramie today.  Sigh. And we&#8217;ve received a few letters and messages in the last few weeks to be less encouraging us to be less negat&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Shot Across the Bow]]></title><description><![CDATA[Chiswick, West London]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/a-shot-across-the-bow</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/a-shot-across-the-bow</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2026 21:39:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eORn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe929875e-bee3-4f25-8954-a7f783e4aa42_600x800.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, April 15</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3><p></p><p>The 2026 Ruffer Review is out. It&#8217;s one of my favorite publications and I look forward to reading it every year. Ruffer is an asset management business based in London. They&#8217;re extremely risk averse and place great emphasis on long-term preservation of capital. Not everyone&#8217;s cup of tea, I admit. But if you like reading long philosophical essays about markets and finance, it&#8217;s a must-read. I discovered it a few years ago after it was recommended in Grant&#8217;s Interest Rate Observer.</p><p><a href="https://ruffer.foleon.com/ruffer-review-2026/contents/contents">You can read it here</a>.</p><p>Also, Anthony Deden of Edelweiss Holdings, published an essay this week, his first article in six months. Deden is another of my favorite financial thinkers. He emphasizes preservation of capital over returns. This essay is about the erosion of the important principles that made the US so rich. Deden loves gold. In this great (<em>and 2.5 hours long</em>) interview from 2018, which we&#8217;ve linked to before, Deden says he owns three tons of gold in his fund, more than most central banks!</p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/a4_U6bS-cU4?si=anOJ3Lan6lx5FGYe&amp;t=6171">Here&#8217;s the YouTube clip</a>.</p><p><a href="https://forumgeopolitica.com/article/democracy-and-the-consumption-of-its-foundations">And here&#8217;s the essay</a>.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Mythos, Revolt, and Jihad]]></title><description><![CDATA[Friday, April 10th, 2026]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/maven-revolt-and-jihad</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/maven-revolt-and-jihad</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2026 23:23:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg" width="680" height="436" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:436,&quot;width&quot;:680,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:35172,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pAWN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55edac5-d52d-4b22-aad3-3317977f018a_680x436.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: @Rory_Johnston</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3><em>Friday, April 10th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><p>The tankers are coming! The tankers are coming!</p><p>A &#8216;<em>wave</em>&#8217; of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCS) are headed around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa for the Gulf Coast in America. As Tom has pointed out for a few years now, the VLCCs carry between 1.9 and 2.1 million barrels of crude oil. Please see <a href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/place-your-bets">Tom&#8217;s note from Wednesday</a> on how to manage strength in our tanker stocks.</p><p>Normally, 80% of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be headed to Asia. The times, they ain&#8217;t a normal. Industry publications show that 40 VLCC &#8216;<em>liftings</em>&#8217; are booked in American ports for April. The average is 27. It&#8217;s not an oil armada yet. But it does set up an interesting tension.</p><p>US exports of crude oil could be set to boom. It&#8217;s a bit of a paradox. This week&#8217;s CPI and core personal consumption expenditure data show that rising energy prices are already driving up inflation in the US. The CPI data is from March and the PCE data was from February. It&#8217;s likely to get worse (<em>higher energy prices</em>) before it gets better.</p><p>Yet the US is on pace to export over five million barrels of oil a day to markets that can&#8217;t get it easily from anywhere else. What are we to make of this? Is it politically tenable to endure higher energy prices in the US while exports hit new highs?</p><p><strong>Jeff Currie from Carlyle thinks we have an emerging conflict between the &#8216;electrostate&#8217; and the &#8216;petrostate&#8217;. Up in the air is the 50-year global bargain where the US provided a blanket of security through trillions in military spending in exchange for &#8216;dollar dominance&#8217; (</strong><em><strong>the recycling of oil money back into US government bonds and financial assets like stocks</strong></em><strong>). Without the security, the dollar&#8217;s dominance can&#8217;t last. The bargain is ended.</strong></p><p>You&#8217;ll recognize Currie&#8217;s name if you were around for the last commodity supercycle in the first decade of the 21st century. He ran the commodities desk at Goldman Sachs and was one of the top analysts for how the price hike, investment boom, and production boom would play out for investors (<em>most of this was driven by huge levels of fixed asset investment in China in things like bridges, railroads, housing and airpots&#8230;while the US was bleeding trillions of dollars in the deserts of Iraq</em>).</p><p>What he&#8217;s suggesting now is that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to anyone Iran and China want to exclude. This gives China, in Currie&#8217;s analysis, global control over critical minerals, rare earths, microchips, and &#8216;<em>oil access</em>&#8217; for countries that are not energy self-sufficient. In this environment, he forecasts a huge rotation back into heavy industry and energy.  Asset heavy over capital light, if you want to put it in balance sheet terms.</p><p>Whatever you think about the thesis, it sure doesn&#8217;t look like the Strait of Hormuz is open. Or that there&#8217;s a ceasefire in hostilities. Or that there&#8217;s anything in the world that can prevent coming fuel and food shortages, driven by the disruption to global energy transportation. Some people have already felt the pain. Others will soon enough. And investors?</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Place Your Bets]]></title><description><![CDATA[In a debt-based system, all new money is created as debt. So what appears to be money printing is actually debt expansion. The banking system is the engine of debt expansion or credit creation.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/place-your-bets</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/place-your-bets</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 22:33:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5sz9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60aeb779-a331-491e-b9fd-cdd0fbf78caf_906x545.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, April 8</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Purpose of a System]]></title><description><![CDATA[The inflation from higher energy prices is coming. If historical patterns hold, a recession won&#8217;t be far behind. This puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot for the rest of the year.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-purpose-of-a-system</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-purpose-of-a-system</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2026 21:15:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!miTn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6037d6c5-bdcf-4b63-9026-724353cc6162_907x409.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Friday, April 3rd, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Havoc Unbounded]]></title><description><![CDATA[Whenever credit stops expanding, you get deleveraging and viral liquidation, which is just a chaotic re-balancing in the demand for &#8212; and supply of &#8212; society&#8217;s savings.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/havoc-unbounded</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/havoc-unbounded</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:22:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Chiswick, West London</em></h3><h3><em>Wednesday, April 1st, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>By Tom Dyson, Investment Director</em></h3><p></p><p>The first quarter of 2026 is now in the books. Here&#8217;s how our top ideas performed over the quarter:</p><ul><li><p>Gold +4%</p></li><li><p>Silver +6.5%</p></li><li><p>Platinum -7.4%</p></li><li><p>Trade of the Decade +44.6%</p></li><li><p>Our 7 energy stocks  +33.2%</p></li><li><p>Uranium +3.7%</p></li></ul><p>Even our cash and short term bills have done well. There&#8217;s been a clear trend of HIGHER short term interest rates around the world, something almost no one had expected. The 2-year US treasury note is currently yielding 3.88%.</p><p>Here&#8217;s the US government yield curve. Notice the 0.5% rise in short term interest rates during March:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png" width="1176" height="712" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:712,&quot;width&quot;:1176,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XXrl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F22d9fa73-1422-4587-8892-f856f1a23494_1176x712.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I&#8217;ve no idea what to expect over the rest of 2026&#8230; almost anything is possible. That&#8217;s the point. We&#8217;re not speculating or forecasting. We&#8217;re playing defense. We&#8217;re braced for almost any scenario, including a lot of uncomfortable volatility (<em>as we&#8217;re seeing in oil equities today</em>.) We&#8217;re not changing anything.</p><p><strong>QUESTION</strong>: <em>I am not real clear. Are you saying to buy the SLVR we sold in January back at this time?</em></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/0cf7e207&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe today and save&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/0cf7e207"><span>Subscribe today and save</span></a></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Elite Eight]]></title><description><![CDATA[We see things happening on the TV over in Iran, Qatar, Baltic oil terminals that ship Russian oil, and Saudi Arabia. But their economic effects don&#8217;t travel with equal speed to all parts of the world.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-elite-eight</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/the-elite-eight</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 22:37:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Friday, March 27th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><p></p><p>Let&#8217;s return to basic physics to explain why the world&#8211;and financial markets&#8211;are woefully unprepared for the interruption to global energy flows in the Middle East and the destruction/degradation of oil production and export infrastructure. It&#8217;s all physics. But with a weird twist.</p><p>Light is an electromagnetic wave that travels at 300 million meters per second. Sound is a mechanical pressure wave. It travels at 340 meters per second.  You see a large explosion first (<em>if you&#8217;re watching it from a safe distance and not the target of it</em>). Then you hear it, and possibly feel it (<em>the pressure wave</em>). <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KC7zdZ00eZ4">Here&#8217;s an example</a>, based on the demolition of the second stage of a C-4 Trident rocket motor.</p><p>We see things happening on the TV over in Iran, Qatar, Baltic oil terminals that ship Russian oil, and Saudi Arabia. But their economic effects don&#8217;t travel with equal speed to all parts of the world. We should pay attention to these effects. They may be headed your way soon.</p><ul><li><p>Australia, which has only two working oil refineries and imports most of its transportation and aviation fuel, has a new national dashboard showing which  gas stations are running out of diesel and other fuels. </p></li><li><p>South Korea announced a five-day vehicle rotation system for public sector vehicles that determines who can drive each day. </p></li><li><p>The Philippines has declared a national fuel emergency, in which the government can control who gets fuel and when, as well as price controls (<em>to prevent hoarding by consumers and price gouging by producers, they say</em>).</p></li></ul><p>In supply chain terms, the further you are away from your refined fuels, the more likely you are to feel the effects of the closure of the Stait of Hormuz first. It&#8217;s not happening yet in the United States or Europe. But even if shipping of crude oil and other products through the Strait of Hormuz were to resume today, there is a lag or delay in oil at sea that is going to show up in the real economy even as the oil itself does not show up for days, weeks, or months (<em>depending on how long this goes on</em>).</p><p>It&#8217;s not quite Mad Max. Not yet. But a bit later, I&#8217;ll show you what the global elites think we should all do to prepare. It&#8217;s all sounding very much like the early stages of the pandemic, when it was just &#8216;<em>two weeks to stop the spread</em>&#8217; and we were &#8216;<em>all in it together</em>&#8217; (<em>we weren&#8217;t</em>). The energy lockdowns are coming. But first, what about US financial markets? Take a look at the chart below.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg" width="1456" height="987" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:987,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!C0fH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb2d1ee54-0ef2-4ffe-8918-dfaa3768db0a_2000x1356.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Inflation adjusted returns in the stock market are likely to be negative for seven to ten years after a mean-reverting crash in stock prices. We&#8217;ve said it so many times in the last few years that it probably goes in one ear and out the other. This week, I ran across a chart that shows it, which I&#8217;ve shared with you above. What does it show?</p><p>It shows the nominal performance, in percentage terms, for the Dow Industrials and the S&amp;P 500 during the last oil shock, which lasted nine years, from roughly 1973 to 1982 (<em>at which point stocks were a screaming buy</em>). Not great results. The S&amp;P was up 3.81% over the nine years. The Dow was down 14.22%. But&#8230;</p><p>But the inflation of the oil shock led to a 55% decline in purchasing power over the same nine years. Your inflation adjusted returns&#8211;<em>your <strong>real returns</strong> after the decline in the value of your money</em>&#8211;were much lower than the nominal returns. Even modest paper gains in stocks were cosmetic and couldn&#8217;t paper over the damage done to the value of your money.</p><p>By the way, in gold terms, stocks got clobbered over that nine years. Gold was up early during the energy shock (<em>1973 and 1974</em>) and up again late (<em>1979</em>).<strong> Adjusting for gold&#8217;s performance over the same nine years, the S&amp;P 500 was down over 83% and the Dow was down 86%.</strong> And even if you include the nominal performance of the S&amp;P 500 total returns index (<em>which includes reinvested dividends</em>), you still get a 74% decline in the S&amp;P 500 over the nine years. Now look at this.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png" width="604" height="479" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:479,&quot;width&quot;:604,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZtXe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe2b167b3-131b-4100-9392-d4553b3beec1_604x479.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Let&#8217;s say that the war in Iran actually strengthens Iran&#8217;s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Or, in a worse case scenario, escalation in the coming weeks results in the massive destruction of energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf. The result would be soaring oil prices that would last years, not months. What happens to stocks then?</p><p>We&#8217;re already at a valuation peak (<em>price-to-sales, CAPE, market cap-to-GDP</em>). But we also have a cyclical concentration of investor money in the same sector of the market. It was the Nifty Fifty when the 1970s energy shock began. Japan in 1989 (<em>before an 89% fall in the Nikkei</em>). Then the TMT stocks of the <a href="http://dot.com">dot.com</a> boom. And now the AI &#8216;Big Ten) are 41% of the market&#8212;<strong>Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Broadcom, Oracle, and Palantir</strong>.</p><p>It&#8217;s going to be hard to run&#8211;<em>much less build</em>&#8212;AI data centers when the shockwaves of a global energy crisis are running through the metals and critical minerals supply chain (<em>although this MAY accelerate the development and deployment of small modular nuclear reactors and next gen nuclear power</em>). You wonder if the projected data center cap ex numbers are being revised as we speak, with the stock market re-valuation to follow. </p><p>In the meantime, there are still disturbing problems with private credit and all the nooks and crannies it flowed into during the last boom. This week, Swiss bank UBS &#8216;<em>gated</em>&#8217; redemptions in a $470 million European real estate fund. If you want your money out, you may have to wait as many 36 months&#8230;and by then, it might be worth a lot less.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png" width="904" height="543" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:543,&quot;width&quot;:904,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bRc5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5e65beb-44d6-4fa9-9871-6cadf00a037b_904x543.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The government bond market is no place to hide either. Total global government debt is now 100% of global GDP. You could make a very good argument that the epicenter of the next debt crisis is in government bonds. The entire financial model of the modern Welfare/Warfare state may blow up. </p><p>What does <em>that </em>mean?</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Project Nomad]]></title><description><![CDATA[Any kind of de-leveraging environment in markets is going to send stocks and gold down together. But it&#8217;s probably going to send stocks down a lot more, given how high valuations are.]]></description><link>https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/project-nomad</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/project-nomad</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan  Denning]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2026 21:35:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ALHI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8e54818e-c2c2-476f-a269-3ab7fc6eb018_916x547.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><em>Friday, March 20th, 2026</em></h3><h3><em>Laramie, Wyoming</em></h3><h3><em>By Dan Denning</em></h3><p></p><p>Today we look at &#8216;dots&#8217; in the form of charts. Then we connect them. No (<em>or very little</em>) history. No geography. No theology. No philosophy. No ba&#8230;</p>
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